Prepare yourselves for the second coming of Katrina, because you can bet that this storm will be hyped as an indicator of “global warming”.
As of this writing, the storm is in the process of making landfall in the Philippines and it is moving west at 20-25 knots and estimated winds of 170 knots (195mph).
Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue has been monitoring the Super Typhoon for the past several days and remarked about the historic nature of Haiyan. In this upper echelon of cyclone intensity, it is difficult to assign rankings or compare Typhoons due to inhomogeneous observing networks and tools. But it’s fair to say that Super Typhoon Haiyan is as intense as a tropical cyclone can get.
Presented at AMS Tropical in 2004, Hoarau et al. asked if there were any Typhoons stronger than Tip (1979). Two likely candidates emerged including Super Typhoon Angela from 1995 which has been compared with today’s storm. Satellite estimates through Dvorak technique yielded an intensity of 90 m/s or 175 knots which is greater than Tip’s maximum of 165 knots. A quick comparison between Angela and Haiyan at maximum intensity suggests the latter is actually stronger. Dvorak estimates are at the top of the scale — T = 8.0 and even touched 8.1, which according to this chart, means 170-knot maximum 1-minute sustained winds. That is Category 5 with three pluses.
The actual best-tracks have Tip at 165-knots and there are many others that exceeded 155-knots. Here’s a handy list of advisories that met or exceeded 155 since 1950. The JTWC best tracks are increasingly uncertain prior to the satellite era (1979) but there is some confidence primarily due to routine aircraft recon from 1944-1987 in the Western Pacific. Aside from field studies (e.g. TPARC) run by NASA in coordination with neighboring nations, routine hurricane hunting does not occur outside of the Western Hemisphere.
Global landfalls were discussed in a recent J. Climate paper by Weinkle, Maue and Pielke Jr. Weinkle_2012.04
![vis0[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/vis01.jpg?quality=83)
Above: as morning breaks in the Philippines, one of the first two visible satellite images
Above: animation from IntelliWeather.com showing the last 12 hours of motion as of 1PM PST 11/7/13. – may take up to a minute to load and animate, depending on your connection speed.
With winds like that, expect to see complete devastation as it makes landfall. That of course will be hyped into an AGW caused storm, just like Katrina. Al Gore and Bill McKibben are already testing lies language on Twitter. Bear in mind that we have a very short historical record of Typhoon strength, and any claims that this is the strongest storm ever need to be qualified with that fact. Nobody has any credible record of typhoon strength back more than a few decades.
I’ll add updates and additional content to this article today – Anthony
===============================================================
UPDATE1: NOAA image as Haiyan prepares to make landfall:
UPDATE2: Haiyan is expected to make it all the way to China. Maue on Twitter:
12z ECMWF model shows #Haiyan maintaining deep central pressure of 947 mb as it moves quickly west thru S. China Sea
UPDATE3: Radar image from Cebu City shows the eye of Haiyan approaching, click image for animation:
UPDATE4: Dr. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central wins the “First Haiyan BS award” with this missive.
RT @NOAA: What's fueling #SuperTyphoon #Haiyan's intensity? Deep warm water: http://t.co/tfNWljssms Via @NOAASatellites #climate
— Heidi Cullen (@HeidiCullen) November 7, 2013
As Bob Tisdale observes, there’s nothing to support this along the track of Haiyan:
Lots of the typical BS accumulating already about Typhoon Haiyan. Let’s push some of it aside and present the sea surface temperature anomalies for the early portion of Haiyan’s storm track.
There was nothing unusually warm about the sea surface temperature anomalies for the early portion of Typhoon Haiyan’s storm track last week, the week of Wednesday October 30, 2013. We’ll have to wait for Monday to see what the values were for this week.
UPDATE5: Jeff Masters, makes this claim:
Super Typhoon Haiyan has made landfall. According to PAGASA, Haiyan came ashore at 4 am local time (20 UTC) November 7, 2013 near Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar. At the time, Guiuan reported sustained 10-minute average winds of 96 mph, with a pressure of 977 mb. Contact has since been lost with the city. Two hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. This makes Haiyan the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic’s Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.
Sorry, no. Super Typhoon Ida in 1958 is said to have central pressure of 877mb and 200 mph 1 minute sustained winds: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Ida_%281958%29
C. L. Jordan (September 1959). “A Reported Sea Level Pressure of 877 MB.” (PDF). Monthly Weather Review. Retrieved 2011-11-23.
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BBC are doing 300kmh and strongest ever.
Anthony,,
I think you forgot to conclude with /sarc
Its starting to seep into the comments 😀
2013 Typhoon Season up to Nov. 5
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2013_Pacific_typhoon_season_summary.png
Anthony says: Sorry, no. Super Typhoon Ida in 1958 is said to have central pressure of 877mb and 200 mph 1 minute sustained winds:
Masters was talking about strength at landfall. Wikipedia article states that Ida weakened before landfall.
If my memory doesn’t play false, Hurricane Celia hit Corpus Christi, tx with winds of ~200mph back in the 1970s.
u.k.(us) says:
November 7, 2013 at 7:26 pm
“buddy pilot” is a new term for me.
Never heard it before, what does it mean ??
Not a co-pilot, not the only captain. In our outfit we were all captains, albeit inexperienced boggies and we took it in turns who was in the LH seat and who was reading the map, hence my use of the term buddy.
In actual fact he was more than a buddy (Now deceased, RIP Dave). He was there a month or so before me and was therefore my mentor and one of the smoothest, laid back pilots you could ever hope to meet.
I also recall the pre-typhoon days at Nha Trang before we evacuated. There was about seven and three quarter eights of cloud and it was raining all over the place. But war goes on and we were given the task of re-supplying a little 1500 ft or so ploughed field they called an airstrip by the name of Boom EE Gha (couldn’t even begin to spell it correctly, in the log book it just says BMG). But I remember the day.
Well, I was in the LHS with Dave mentoring and we arrived where BMG ought to be at about 4000 ft and when we looked down lo and behold there was a hole the size of a football pitch. I then looked at Dave and he didn’t say a word so I pulled back the throttles and started to spiral down tightly turning to keep in the hole, hoping we didn’t spear off into a rock filled cloud and somehow – thanks God – we got below the base and were able to spot the airfield.
It was still raining so we had to do a tight circuit with the windscreen wipers going and my heart was beating about the same as Neil Armstrong’s when he landed on the moon, as I started thinking about the length of the strip and how it was going to be slimy. It was never ever going to be a smooth landing, although I’ve been in worse as a passenger in Airbus 380s, because as soon as we touched down, or a split second before, I slammed the throttles back into full reverse and they stayed there until we came to a slippery but safe stop with nothing to spare. First time, last time into Boom EE Gha and I never ever want to see it again.
Throughout the whole episode Dave hadn’t flinched but later I thought that our little typhoon evacuation run up to Danang with the comforting voice of the American Ground Controlled Approach controller at the other end was a bit of a cake walk. And the beer from the PX that night was extra especially delicious and I knew from then on, thanks to Dave, I had the confidence to handle anything.
@king of Cool – Thank you for the story! It is the personal experiences of people brought to life like you did that make things real.
Another claim that cannot be falsified, so must be ignored.
You can watch it’s progress here http://www.weather.com/maps/geography/asia/asiasatellite_large_animated.html it looks as like it might have dissipated somewhat, but I expect will regather strength when it moves over open water.
anyone who thinks this is normal as to get a checkup mate this storm is not a simple event this is something we can expect from now on
Those still in its path may be marginally comforted by what appears to be a rather rapid weakening over recent hours, to judge by the decrese in the depth of the central cloud base. As Haiyan has a relatively small circulation of strong winds (more like Wilma in Mexico than Katrina), it’s more susceptible to spinning up and down in short time scales than storms with a broader wind field. It’s also moving laterally at quite a lick – nearly 25 mph – so any one point on land is experiencing the effects for only half or a third as long as if the typhoon were travelling at a more ‘normal’ rate.
No comfort to those who have been battered already. We can only hope loss of life has been minimal and that recovery can begin soon.
Strongest wind gust every recorded off the Western Australian coast was at Barrow Island during Tropical Cyclone Olivia on 10 April 1996 reaching 408 km/hr (253.5 mph). This is believed to be a world record surpassing the Mt Washington gust. Lowest recorded pressure off the West Australian coast was recorded at the North Rankin Oil Platform during Tropical Cyclone Orson on April 22/23 1989 of 905 hPa.
Kim Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/extremes.shtml
“… this storm will be hyped as an indicator of “global warming” …”
I only supplemented comments Jimbo:
Thomas Knutson, 2012 (http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/role-climate-change-tropical-cyclones-still-unclear) says:
“Yes, but we cannot see a detectable effect of human activity on it. This is different from global rise in temperature, which is a direct consequence of human activity. Looking at projections, increase in intensity will be upto 10 per cent but that’s too small to be detectable now […].” “…IT’S NOT showing any DRAMATIC effects at this point.”
“We think atmosphere warms more than surface, which STABILISES the atmosphere, leading to fewer storms.”
“A lot depends on the infrastructure in place, and the geography.”
Vecchi et al., 2013. (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00503.1):
“The UT [upper troposphere] and TTL [tropical tropopause layer] temperature trends in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis are unlikely to be accurate and likely drive spuriously positive TC [tropical cyclone] and PI [potential intensity] trends and an INFLATED connection between absolute surface temperature warming and TC activity increases.”
Excuse my ignorance, but, since the Philippines are north of the equator, and the storm in the video appears to be turning anti-clockwise, why is it a tropical cyclone and not a tropical anticyclone? (Genuine question.)
Bravo Zulu on your milestone Anthony.
the problem is caused by global cooling, exactly as predicted by me:
quote
As the temperature differential between the poles and equator grows larger due to the cooling from the top, very likely something will also change on earth. Predictably, there would be a small (?) shift of cloud formation and precipitation, more towards the equator, on average. At the equator insolation is 684 W/m2 whereas on average it is 342 W/m2. So, if there are more clouds in and around the equator, this will amplify the cooling effect due to less direct natural insolation of earth (clouds deflect a lot of radiation). Furthermore, in a cooling world there is more likely less moisture in the air, but even assuming equal amounts of water vapour available in the air, a lesser amount of clouds and precipitation will be available for spreading to higher latitudes. So, a natural consequence of global cooling is that at the higher latitudes it will become both cooler and drier.
end quote
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303309504579185100022119712
“Haiyan, with gusts of up to 275 kilometers an hour (168 miles an hour) when it hit land, is the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Philippines since Typhoon Ruth pounded the main island of Luzon in 1991, causing floods and landslides and killing 12.”
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304448204579183691937657718
“The typhoon landed at 4:40 a.m. local time, at the town of Guiuan. Haiyan — locally called Yolanda — is the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Philippines since Typhoon Ruth hit the main island of Luzon in 1991.”
“With the equivalent strength of a Category 5 hurricane, Haiyan hammered the coastal town of Guiuan in Eastern Samar province with winds of 146 miles an hour and gusts of 168 mph. The storm was moving west at a faster clip than estimated, and its diameter had shrunk to about 250 miles.”
No disrespect to anyone however, I think you will find, so far, only 3 people are reported to have died in this storm. You will also find more people die every day in poverty or raking through rubbish tips where walls of rubbish bury those trying to eek out a living, especially in Manila.
Either way, this is yet another weather event being blown, literally, blown out of all proportion in the MSM. Just like fires here in Australia.
I am here Casiguran Sorsogon, 150-170km from the storm center. Wind was here maybe 30m/s.
I have video, don’t know how to post.
@Patrick
We recently had floods in India and Indonesia? it is a pattern?
More downpours around the equator and less rain at >[40] latitude
all very predictable from my results
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
“HenryP says:
November 8, 2013 at 4:19 am”
No, it’s just weather.
Whenever a tropical storm starts to develop and monitoring begins there are those people who take the position that 35 mph winds are nothing to worry about. These same people scoff at all the huss and fuss about such low wind speeds and tell their tales of how they experience wind speeds of 50- 60 mph as a common feature of where they live. It is always my response that the danger in tropical systems is their ability to rapidly increase in size and strength. That is the reason for early monitoring of even small storms. Below is the intensification history for this storm. Pay particular attention the the incredibly rapid intensification from Nov 5 to Nov 6. Being prepared and aware are the two best defenses.
(I hope this cut and paste retains the proper format when I hit “post comment”)
Date Time Wind speed (mph)
Nov 03 06 GMT 30
Nov 03 12 GMT 35
Nov 03 18 GMT 35
Nov 04 00 GMT 40
Nov 04 06 GMT 45
Nov 04 12 GMT 50
Nov 04 18 GMT 65
Nov 05 00 GMT 75
Nov 05 06 GMT 75
Nov 05 12 GMT 105
Nov 05 18 GMT 120
Nov 06 00 GMT 150
Nov 06 06 GMT 155
Nov 06 12 GMT 160
Nov 06 18 GMT 175
Nov 07 00 GMT 175
Nov 07 06 GMT 175
Nov 07 12 GMT 190
Nov 07 18 GMT 195
Patrick says
no it just weather
Henry says
no,
it is the changing weather due to natural climate change
expect less rainfall at >[40] latitudes
and more rainfall around the equator
Like Willis said
better be prepared and thank God for the wisdom that He gives to people to understand the natural forces at play.
“HenryP says:
November 8, 2013 at 4:57 am”
Not sure how you managed to determine from my posts that this weather event was anything but natural.
Camille 1969 and Ida 1958 were both during the mid 20th century cooler spell which correlated with less active solar cycle 20.
Just saying.
DaveF says:
November 8, 2013 at 2:08 am
Excuse my ignorance, but, since the Philippines are north of the equator, and the storm in the video appears to be turning anti-clockwise, why is it a tropical cyclone and not a tropical anticyclone? (Genuine question.)
——————————————————————————————————————–
What you are looking at, Dave, are the upper level clouds of Haiyan(Yolanda). The upper-level circulation of a strong tropical cyclone are, indeed, anti-cyclonic. It is the lower-level winds of the storm which are cyclonic and those are the winds which affect people. See:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/hurricane.jpg