While many climate alarmists still try to tell us that global warming will increase tornadoes, we are in the middle of a tornado drought, and well below normal. Normally we’d see 1221 tornadoes in the USA, so far for 2013, only 716 have been reported.
![ptorngraph[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/ptorngraph1.png?quality=75)
The map of the USA shows the distribution:
So far, we are about 200 tornadoes below this time last year, and last year was also a low event year.
![torngraph-big[3]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/torngraph-big3.png?quality=75)
When looking historically at where we are, we find that 2013 has slipped below the historical minimum, setting a new record for the ~60 years in the tornado database.
![torgraph-big[3]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/torgraph-big3.png?quality=75)
What’s more, we are well past the time of peak tornado activity, which typically occurs in spring, when we have the most collisions between warm and cold air masses over the USA. While we could certainly see a rebound, it is statistically unlikely.
![tor_month[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/tor_month1.png?quality=75)
Sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/
“2013 is a record low year for U.S. tornadoes”
And 2014 could be a record high.
Let me spin this towards AGWing. They must be tired so I will step in to help.
“Tornadoes and hurricanes are Mother Earth’s heat vents. Thank goodness we have them. However global warming is shutting them down to the extent that we will soon be tornado and hurricane free by 2050. We must reduce CO2 so that hurricanes and tornadoes can return to their previous natural climatological state.” [this next part was in the email to each other] And, if we use the word “weirding” we can connect it to CO2.
There. All ready for the press conference.
I’m genuinely perplexed by the reaction of most warministas steadfastly refusing to accept GOOD NEWS like this. It’s real information based on real data that they can confirm to their little hearts’ desire but they always get angry about it.
It just goes to prove Rush Limbaugh’s assertion that these people are invested in the general idea that humans are “hurting the planet”. THAT is the only explanation that fits them. A normal person would hear good news and be relieved to think maybe things aren’t all that bad after all. But nooooooo, not for these perpetually outraged warministas and Gore sycophants, the slightest reduction of any threat to the planet, (or polar bears or species X or Tuvalu, etc.), is apparently an enormous increase of a threat to … their egos.
I guess I can’t blame them too much, the longer they hang on to this hoax the further they’ll “fall” having to either admit they were duped for so many years or worse – guilty of of knowing they were wrong and intentionally perpetrating the hoax for personal benefit.
So now they even count trash can molester, dust devils ( the ones on the map in Ca.)
Desperation is setting in.
Probably just a faulty breaker at HAARP.
I came here for the comments. I’m leaving quite satisfied.
KevinM says: “And 2014 could be a record high.”
Unlikely unless we get extensive snow pack in the upper tier states and Canada. Warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is going to push northward almost every Spring making COLD dry air the predetermining factor for tornadoes – not global warming.
In fact, a reduction of storm intensity makes meteorological sense in a warmer world because the polar regions generally warm faster than the tropics thus creating a condition of LESS of a difference in air mass energies which is what drives weather.
Pathway says:August 19, 2013 at 9:40 am
Looks like NOAA is already padding the numbers. In Colo. they show 2 west of the Continental Divide. Tornado’s in this area rarely touch down and are never more than F1. Dust devils may be a better term.
At first glance I would agree with you, having been a storm spotter on the front range, now retired to the more mild-weathered western slope. I wondered where their map depicted those outriders, and making an overlay, it appears to be SE of Gunnison around Hwy 50 and North of Alamosa around Hwy 287. Both of these are in the San Luis Valley, wide-open plains. I would think the elevation would minimize the likelihood of tornado formation, which may be apparent in the low numbers there.
Obama will solve this problem in his 3RD Term!
Mike M says: August 19, 2013 at 10:22 am
I’m genuinely perplexed by the reaction of most warministas steadfastly refusing to accept GOOD NEWS like this.
_________________________________
They don’t want good news. They are Jeremiahs**, who only want bad news, because only bad news will prove them correct. Thus bad news is good news, and the worse the better.
.
** Jeremiah was the mad Judaic priest from the Book of Jeremiah, who wanted god to destroy the exiled Jews, because that would prove that his god was good and looking after the exiled Jews – or something like that. The theology of Jeremiah was as baffling as the theology of the Greens, which is why we should never submit to the insanity of a theocracy.
I see more tornadoes as it got colder….and less as it got warmer
….we’re in trouble 🙂
I just sold all of my worldly possessions to save the POLAR BEARS. Phewy… looks like the polar bear saving people are doing a great job cloud dusting like in the 70’s. The data now supports it. Great job polar bear activists.
Bill says:
August 19, 2013 at 10:12 am
Thanks, Bill, that answers my question as well.
Anthony: The 265 is the total of the monthly values in the last chart (monthly frequency of tornadoes 1980-2000)
It’s that pesky global normal, again.
It looks like the hurricane season is off to a slow start this year.
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2010/hurricane-climatology.gif
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR POSTING THIS!
We linked to it “Climate Change Update” on Common Cents…
http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com
Anthony Watts says:
August 19, 2013 at 10:04 am
@Michael Markowitz
Where are you getting the 265 number from?
Anthony the last graph with the red bars totals 265 tornadoes. So I think he saying since the average for all months is 265 then the average for any year should be 265 but that is not what is indicated.
Cut down on CO2 emissions….Start skip breathing. You really don’t need all of that O2 you are consuming. Do you?
Actually, this is not true. The science is settled so we are having record drought, hurricanes, and tornadoes. And, the fact that it is getting colder – Atlanta had a high of 73 just a few days ago – only reinforces that global warming is a fact. The hotter it gets the colder it seems. The only thing to fix these horrific weather anomolies is through massive carbon taxes. Don’t worry about the temperatures getting colder after we pay the carbon taxes. We can pay a reverse carbon tax to cause the temperatures to increase and stabalize. I’m so glad we have such smart people in charge.
Such trended statistics are almost meaningless. For example, taking Storm Prediction Center’s own database, for the month of May, there were an actual reported number of 251 tornadoes in 2013, versus 121 actual tornadoes reported for May of 2012 (more than double in 2013), and 326 tornadoes in the high peak year of 2011, followed by 304 tornadoes in 2010, and 250 tornadoes in 2009. Also, the month of May 2013 had 41 tornado-related deaths, versus 0 in the same month of May in the previous year of 2012.
Trended statistics, de-based from seasonal fluctuations, are for practical purposes somewhat useless numbers. 2013 has also been a record cold spring in many states in the U.S., and may be more indicative of a ‘delayed spring,’ meaning there could be additional tornadoes in August and September. 2013 is not even over, so how can an article claim that 2013 is a record low until December 31st of 2013? This article should be fact checked.
The only point that may be somewhat realistic, may be a trended factor of climate change, but other factors should be considered such as regional temperature means etc, A conclusion based on three quarters of tornado statistics, before the last quarter of 2013, is premature. More likely 2013 would indicate a shift in regional distribution of data, and such information won’t be known until December, at the end of the 2013 season,
Nice to see the charts, however.
Facts mean nothing to the climate change crowd. What I find amusing is the same people who howl and wail about evil corporations are completely hoodwinked by evil do-gooders who exploit a love of nature for profit…
Calm before the storm?
Climate change, yet another violation of our rights. The gov’t constantly violates our rights.
They violate the 1st Amendment by caging protesters and banning books like “America Deceived II”.
They violate the 4th and 5th Amendment by allowing TSA to grope you.
They violate the entire Constitution by starting undeclared wars.
Impeach Obama.
Last link of “America Deceived II” before it is completely banned:
http://www.amazon.com/America-Deceived-II-Possession-interrogation/dp/1450257437
As my Sierra Club Niece would say, “There has to be fewer tornadoes before there are more tornadoes.”
Don’t all the climate scientists know that the global warming/ climate change pseudo-research and activism has made their field of study junk science on the level of phrenology, no one will believe anything they say ever again.