Those that want to make today’s weather seem like the “worst ever” often make ludicrous claims trying to link weather to high CO2 levels. For example, that extra CO2 gives the weather “personality“, or even more extreme linkage, like this:
Climate change means increased severe weather and asthma attacks. See what it means for your state: http://t.co/Pe9mOTVAro
— US EPA Research (@EPAresearch) July 1, 2013
and this
Climate Depot has a headline from Goddard that touts all the weather (not climate) issues of 2013 in the context of the highest ever reported CO2 concentration in modern times. Unfortunately, the link contained no proof, only claims. I decided to provide the proof.
First, about that 400PPM of CO2:
Unfortunately, they backed down from the claim later saying:
‘Carbon dioxide measurements in the Earth’s atmosphere did not break the symbolic milestone of 400 parts per million at a Hawaiian observatory last week, according to a revised reading from the nation’s climate observers.
The current level as of this writing is at: 395.50ppm and has actually gone down since the announcement of breaking the 400 ppm mark:
![co2_weekly_mlo[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/co2_weekly_mlo1-e1376168771698.png?quality=75)
Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
Next: let’s take each of the claims below and provide the context for proof:
- Coldest summer on record at the North Pole
- Highest August Arctic ice extent since 2006
- Record high August Antarctic ice extent
- No major hurricane strikes for eight years
- Slowest tornado season on record
- No global warming for 17 years
- Second slowest fire season on record
- Four of the five snowiest northern hemisphere winters have occurred since 2008
Coldest summer on record at the North Pole:
Easy to prove, as we’ve covered this issue recently here. The DMI plot of Arctic temperature for 2013 (at the end pause of this animation) hasn’t gone above the climatic normals since this dataset began in 1958:
Highest August Arctic ice extent since 2006:
Plausible, but is debatable, depending on what data you look at, for example, this plot from DMI:
![icecover_current_new[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/icecover_current_new1.png?quality=75)
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png
Others on the WUWT sea ice page suggest it could go either way. What isn’t debatable though is that there has been a dramatic slowing of loss of Arctic ice extent in the past couple of weeks, as shown below, and that the current extent is well within the +/- 2 standard deviation.
Source: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
Record high August Antarctic ice extent:
That’s easy to show, at the end of July starting into August, as Paul Homewood demonstrates:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/south/daily/data/
Since then, Sunshine Hours puts it in context with other years:
After taking a small jog sideways and downwards, Antarctic Sea Extent is back to moving up.
Day 221 is in 2nd place. 2010 holds the daily record. Can 2013 catch the 2010 record pace again? Wait and see.
No major hurricane strikes for eight years:
As we pointed out at the beginning of the hurricane season on June 1st, Hurricane season begins with a new record hurricane drought for the USA
The graph above provides an update to data on the remarkable ongoing US “intense hurricane drought.” When the Atlantic hurricane season starts next June 1, it will have been 2,777 days since the last time an intense (that is a Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane made landfall along the US coast (Wilma in 2005). Such a prolonged period without an intense hurricane landfall has not been observed since 1900. – Dr. Roger Pielke Jr
It is now at 2847 days since Hurricane Wilma (the last Cat3 hurricane to strike the USA) on Oct 24th, 2005 as of August 10th, 2013.
Slowest tornado season on record:
Easy to prove, just look at NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center Data, which shows we are near a record low for tornado activity in the USA:
![torngraph-big[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/torngraph-big1.png?quality=75)
![torgraph-big[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/torgraph-big1.png?quality=75)
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
No global warming for 17 years:
This statement gets a number of people riled up, but it is clear that global warming has slowed to a crawl. Even the New York Times has at last been constrained to admit this.
Last year we had this:
Now a year later:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1997/plot/rss/from:1997/trend
and
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997/trend
Slight cooling in the troposphere, slight warming at the surface, both virtually flat.
Of course after the latest HadCRUT4 “adjustments” are added in, some can claim it is actually warming.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1997/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1997/trend
Second slowest fire season on record:
Actually, just for this record set. The National Fire Information Center says:
2013 is actually lowest in the last decade for the number of fires, and second lowest for acreage.
Four of the five snowiest northern hemisphere winters have occurred since 2008:
Rutgers snow lab shows this clearly.
![nhland_season1[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/nhland_season11.gif)
1978 was tops, followed by 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2008.
Source: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1
We live in interesting times of nearly 400ppm of Co2 concentration in our atmosphere.
It’s still not too late to get t-shirts:
Order yours here on your favorite garment, mug, or bag here:
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
4TimesAYear says:
August 10, 2013 at 4:54 pm
Congrats on beating the rush. I should invest in snow blower futures.
Oh noes! The king crabs in Antarctica are now pillaging the exotic life-forms of the Antarctic seabed, all due to global warming!
Pass the melted butter…..http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVNTfpDlPzE
Anthony, one more graph you might want to include:
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/images/preliminary_2009_2010_fossil_carbon_emissions.jpg
Thank you so much for the reality check. Its comforting to know we are living within a period of stable climatic conditions. Its looking more like our children and grandchildren will do just fine despite the dire warnings of people who believe in CAGW.
As climate reality continues to sink into the mindset of the population I’m looking forward to watching the CAGWers scamper off into the mist while pointing their fingers at each other. Or stay where they are seen and be ridiculed for their collective stupidity.
Thank you Steven….and thank you Anthony for expanding on it!
CRS, DrPH says:
August 10, 2013 at 5:54 pm
I foresee a huge industry for Chile & Argentina when & if King Crabs take up permanent residence on the continental shelf.
Butter, lemon or both?
majormike1 says:
August 10, 2013 at 6:01 pm
OK, I’ll bite. Just how closely related are the Kentucky Combses?
Sorry. Cheap shot, for which I apologize, but couldn’t resist.
My second year at Oxford U., UK, I lived in the village of Combe, which in Brittonic (combe or coomb/e) means a small deep valley. A swale or small deep valley south of Pendleton, Oregon (Coombs Canyon) by pure chance is named after your family.
I’m also a Jamestown descendant, among the “Red Bollings”, who inflicted tobacco upon the British as the original Red Man’s Revenge (but without that drug, rum & sugar there would be no USA). There are also White (not descended from Matoaka Powhatan, aka Pocahontas) & Blue (aristocratic) Bollings.
Robert of Ottawa August 10, 2013 at 4:10 pm
I grow weary constantly rebutting the state propaganda; but that is, after all, the purpose of incessant state propaganda.
“A lie told often enough becomes the truth.”
variously attributed to Lenin (I doubt) Goebels (possible) but the most unlikely is William James (1842-1910) The father of modern Psychology “There’s nothing so absurd that if you repeat it often enough, people will believe it.”
I don’t understand. The words attributed to James say that people won’t believe anything, no matter how absurd it is, but even if I ignore this and assume, e.g., that you mistakenly substituted “will” for “won’t,” your point would seem to be that perhaps no famous person ever said “a lie told often enough …” or equivalent, which does not make sense coming from someone who has grown “weary constantly rebutting the state propaganda.”
Anthony,
This is a great post and effectively makes a strong case for skeptics.
I did some comparisons on the highs and lows before and after the adjustments for hadcrut and notice significant differences. Did they change the basis? Are they all tenths of a degree above or below 14C. It is noted that the warmest year was changed from 1997 to 2007.
Some noticeable differences both high and low below:
1997 Low -3 = 0.15 after adjustment -4=0.2
2002 high -3=0.6 after adjustment -4=0.67
2008 low -3=0.5 after adjustment -4=1.5
2012 high -3=0.57 after adjustment -4=0.65
2012 low -3=0.18 after adjustment -4=0.25
I am just a novice at this. Can someone explain the significant adjustments upward?
Also the first temperature graph seems quite different than the Hadcrut
Robert of Ottawa says: @ur momisugly August 10, 2013 at 4:31 pm
OK I give up on internet resources; they are politicized on this subject.
Personally I opt for Goebels….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I would opt for Willi Münzenberg
Sure sounds familiar doesn’t it?
Also check out the book The Red Millionaire: A Political Biography of Willy Münzenberg, Moscow’s Secret Propaganda Tsar in the West, 1917-1940 The free look see has some interesting stuff about Münzenberg. Stuff most of us never saw in history class.
Robert of Ottawa says:
August 10, 2013 at 4:24 pm
“Wikiquotes says there are no reliable sources for it being a quote by Goebels. (But Wikianything is very political outside the hard sciences).
Personally, I think this is something ALL statesman inherently know. Like a tyrant’s old wive’s tale.
Seriously, I would love to nail this source down. Any ideas?”
Goebbels’ rulebook was the 1928 book Propaganda by Eddie bernays, and Eddie, nephew of Siggi Freud, had already become rich and famous for his mastery of mass manipulation at that time. He was the advisor to Woodrow Wilson who presented Wilson as the bringer of democracy to WW I-destroyed Europe during the Treaty Of Versailles negotiations. Book is online
http://aaa-books.blogspot.de/2007/06/edward-bernays-propaganda-1928.html
You know, one of these coming years we ARE going to set a new hurricane, wildfire or sharknado record.
Michael Combs says:
August 10, 2013 at 4:25 pm
“previous higher sea levels, tree lines higher and further north, warm weather crops grown where they don’t grow now”
I’ve observed in Dominican Republic a horizontal “bench” cut in an old coral coast line that is about 1.0 to 1.5 metres above present sea level. This is a former higher sea level marker that may be from the MWP. Moreover, the entire coast is made up of coral that rises above this bench about another 6 metres or so. This coral therefore grew in a sea that was probably more than 10 metres higher than present – probably the Holocene Optimum. The coral rock is fresh and unfolded and you could probably use the bench for a survey datum it’s is so uniform.
@catcracking
“It is noted that the warmest year was changed from 1997 to 2007.”
The warmest day used to be somewhere around 1940, but that has been adjusted down (relatively) by some 0.6C or more.
HadCrud is a FARCE ……. A massive, trend creating, FARCE !!!
Robert of Ottawa says:
August 10, 2013 at 4:24 pm
Among philosophers, the accepted wisdom/lore is that the idea originates in full flower with Friedrich Nietzsche. He held that there is a need to create a “counter myth” from time to time. He viewed his doctrine of the “eternal return” as a counter myth to Christianity. You will not find a simple quotation that refers to something along the lines of repeating a lie enough times. Someone like Lenin or Goebbels might very well have made such a statement about lying.
majormike1 says: @ur momisugly August 10, 2013 at 6:01 pm
We Combs are the largest closely related family….
>>>>>>>>>>
Actually it is my married name, so I married into the family.
Actually it is my married name, so I married into the family.
*****************************
Your husband, as is characteristic of we Combs males, also has great perspicacity, and recognized this admirable quality in you..
Excuse me, but why is the surface warming faster than the troposphere? Shouldn’t the troposphere be warming at a much higher rate?
Well the first two graphs of CO2 at Mauna Loa, demonstrate the falsity of a common claim of the CO2 warming alarmists; that CO2 remains in the atmosphere for 200 years.
The second detailed data plot, shows that the annual CO2 “cycle” amplitude (at ML) has an amplitude of 9 ppm p-p. It takes 8 months for that 9 ppm increase to occur, but all that excess CO2 is removed in just 3 1/2 months.
If we place the total excess CO2 at 120 ppm (400-280) over the supposed “equilibrium” level of 280 ppm, then all of that would be removed in 120 / 3.5 months , if the CO2 contributory mechanisms, were all shut down. That is 34.3 months, which would be the time constant of a simple exponential decay process, which fits many physical processes.
so if all sources were shut down, 99% of the CO2 excess, would be removed in five time constants, or 14.3 years.
So BS on any 200 year residence time.
As a practical matter, CO2 is a permanent component of the atmosphere so the residence time is basically infinite; same as it is for H2O which is also a permanent component of earth’s atmosphere.
It doesn’t matter which CO2 or H2O molecule is in the atmosphere, any one is as good as any other.
But the idea that a CO2 molecule from your burning cigarette will still be in the air after 200 years is plain nonsense. Of course it doesn’t matter to you; because as a smoker, you won’t be around in 200 years.
Nice, concise, and to the heart of the matter.
Share “Links like this one” accordingly. Somebody has too……
Thanks for sharing again Anthony!
It means much to many who wondered,,,,,,but could not substantiate such.
Just The Facts said it best,,, and Please correct me if I am off,
“You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts”
😉
“”””””…….DR says:
August 10, 2013 at 8:04 pm
Excuse me, but why is the surface warming faster than the troposphere? Shouldn’t the troposphere be warming at a much higher rate?…….”””””””
Simple, the surface is the source of the “heat” energy, which it makes out of the incident EM radiation energy. The troposphere (upper) is on the way to outer space, where the energy is escaping to, and by virtue of the second law of thermodynamics, the “heat” energy is flowing from hot to cold.
Wake us all, if the upper troposphere does start warming faster than the surface.
majormike1 says:
August 10, 2013 at 8:09 pm
(replying to Combs’ “Actually it is my married name, so I married into the family.”
Oh. Shucks. Does this mean I have to stand in line?
“Highest August Arctic ice extent since 2006:
Plausible, but is debatable”
Indeed, although interesting, short timeframe observations are limited, in the midst of weather. However, increase in arctic ice extent can be expected later this decade.
.
In fact, looked at as an average of more than a single month and more than the summer alone, 2011-2012 had greater average arctic ice extent than some years of the early 1990s did, as in the reference displayed within the link at the end of this post. Common arctic ice history plots use one of two tricks: (1) either showing the lowest-extent minimum/season alone over the decades, or (2) nominally showing all months but only while switching to showing several years alone. (The plots in http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/ from common propaganda sources like Cryosphere Today vary in which one of the two tricks they use).
.
A rare exception revealing arctic ice history without using either trick (and, of course, deleted, but not before webcitation internet archiving preserved it) is within the following, also showing some other parts of the grand picture of climate (dominated by albedo change via cloud cover on the short term and via ice extent on the long term):
http://s23.postimg.org/qldgno07f/edited4.gif
I have to wonder. Is Hawaii the best place for global CO2 measurements?
I’m not trying to be sarcastic or anything, these are honest questions. What about all the roads being shut down in California last year due to extreme fires and the tornadoes in the midwest-ish area that were all over the news at their relative times? Is this just the news industry hyping things up? Or are these just not out of the ordinary?
DR says:
August 10, 2013 at 8:04 pm
“Excuse me, but why is the surface warming faster than the troposphere? Shouldn’t the troposphere be warming at a much higher rate?”
Only if CO2 magically violated Kirchhoff’s Law; and indeed “trapped heat” (decided to thermalize more frequently than to dethermalize).