The daily mean temp 80 -90 degrees North has remained below climatological normal for more than 120 days, and has now dropped below freezing
Normally, we don’t see this sort of drop until early to mid September. I’m surprised to see this sharp drop today:
See this magnified view:
Bear in mind that this is weather, and that the average temperature for the area could easily go above freezing again. That said, it has been an unusual year for temperature in the Arctic. The closest year to what we have seen so far in 2013 appears to be 2010, which had an early drop below freezing. The high Arctic in year 2013 though, has never gotten above climatological normal, and that’s unusual.
I have created an animation for all years from 1958-2013, with a 1 second interval between frames and a 4 second pause on 2013:
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/
WUWT reader Steve Oak writes:
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For some inexplicable reason I follow the Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North. This started a few years ago when I was looking for information relating to the global temperature that was unadulterated so that I may form my own opinion as to the veracity of global warming claims and found this data set . While not “unadulterated” this looks to be fairly legitimate. I welcome further analysis.
The Danish Meteorological Institute, Center for Ocean and Ice produces a chart plotting the daily mean temp as a function of the day of the year against the average of daily mean temp as a function of the day of the year for the period form 1958 to 2002.
For the last 120 days or so the daily mean has remained below the 1958 to 2002 average. It has also now dropped below freezing.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
While it cannot be assured that the daily mean will remain below freezing, the trend to this point and that there are so few remaining days before the average drops below freezing gives credence to that possibility.
Here is an explanation of the data set from the DMI, COI.
Calculation of the Arctic Mean Temperature
The daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to 2010 T799 data are used and from 2010 to present the T1279 model data are used.
The ERA40 reanalysis data, has been applied to calculation of daily climate values that are plotted along with the daily analysis values in all plots. The data used to determine climate values is the full ERA40 data set, from 1958 to 2002.
More information can be found at:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf.
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Whether or not this early temperature drop translates into an early increased Arctic ice extent or melting remains highly uncertain, as there is a polar storm weather event in progress that may break up sea ice as happened last year: NASA on Arctic sea ice record low – storm ‘wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover’
See this current animation of dewpoint temperature from Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell. It shows moisture bands from the polar low rotating around the north pole.
(NOTE: you may have to click the image below to get it to animate on some browsers)
Keep up to date on the WUWT Sea Ice Page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
How many days late was it in getting to freezing in the spring?
Glad I’m not trying to row through the Northwest Passages – no reason to think they’ll melt at this rate.
As a Canadian, let me tell you it is cold up North.
It is also two weeks late getting to the “thaw” too. It has been above freezing for only 50 days. this year.
Is it record cold since 1958?
Is it near record cold since 1958?
While we are on the subject of the Arctic, readers may recall the following article. It is from the BBC from 2007:
“Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
I await with much anticipation…
But, you see- this is just more proof of man- mind climate armageddon.
Pay up, it’s all your fault.
My humble apologies but the Arctic sea ice extent has finally hit death spiral mode. We MUST concede – its worse than we thought. We must act now.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
At first blush, I have to wonder if there is a bit of anomalous data, or some other error.
But…if it keeps showing up this way….very interesting.
As I watch the screens flash by it occurred to me that I wasn’t able to pick out any series of signals that would indicate to me CAGW. And aren’t the higher latitudes suppose to be the canary in the climate warming hype?
It’s worse than we thought!
Ever notice how the right side of year X never lines up the the left side of year X+1? I got to looking at how the charts are produced and its models all the way down with a smattering of tortured data and all that means is I have less faith in it than I did before as it is subject to the whims of the analysts. That lack of faith is the legacy this class of climate scientists has left us.
Thanks for the animation – I had just yesterday downloaded the images to do just that. Also – earlier to day the current temp was not below zero so I either saw a cached version or there was an update. Regardless, it is the shortest above freezing season on record, and one of if not the lowest average above freezing season. The extent looks to be storm-tossed, but that is weather not climate. Arctic variability is endlessly amazing no matter which way the wind blows.
There is a nasty cyclone near the north pole that caused this sudden drop in temperatures. There is also a high over the CAA and the temps around Amundsen Gulf are anomalously high, Kugluktuk NU is currently 82F, while Paulatuk NWT is 84F
http://i.imgur.com/kOSynh1.png
The precession of the equinox provides the correct algorithm to predict global weather trends.. The glacial melt about 10000 years ago is now driving the world towards a colder regime in another 3000 years or the mid cycle of 26000 years to another glacial melt or warming trend. See Vedic science as epitomised in Sankhya , an axiom based theory that has derived all manifestation parameters from fundamentals. There are no cyclic uncertainties in Sankhya as it derived from a dynamic base that remains so perpetually. Global warming has two theoretical reasons. The Suns (hence Earth’s too) distance from the galactic centre keeps changing which causes polar glacial meltdown every 26000 yrs. The other is human stupidity. Energy is the central support for all life and its extermination must release it as enthalpy (latent heat like ice) . Mans greed for food leads to the slaughter of at least a million tons of flesh daily. The heat released is the equivalent of a thousand nuclear explosions. Has man the intelligence to see his folly , especially when it would affect his huge stomach? So bleating inanities is for the birds! Stop it and stem that rot by re-educating your savage neighbor to look at food as a promoter of life, not only ones own but other lives too. You must not forget that those cheap lives came into being for a very good reason. Have you got the perspicacity to see its importance?
Visit www dot kapillavastu dot com slash index dot html to learn all details
Nearly the entire polar region is below 0C with many areas nearing -5C
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmp_01.fnl.gif
These very smart scientists(US Gov’t NASA none the less!) think the Arctic will be mostly ice-free this summer. And they knew that 5 years ago.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztz3ZdPbdKo&w=420&h=315]
In the first graph at the top of the page, it looks like the trace also crossed the line later than normal.
Environment Canada is showing above normal temperatures for the far north of the CAA in direct contradiction to the Weatherbell animation posted above. Resolute, NU on Ellesmere Island forecast calls for temperatures reaching 54F on Saturday, 13F above normal. We will see in a couple days whose forecast is correct.
http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?nu-27&unit=i
Gaa’ dammit – dares more smoke cummin’ out da machine
The possibility consequentially exists that @ur momisugly the half-precession old Holocene (and centennial change), the sun going all quiet on us, the PDO gone negative on us, and the AMDO soon to follow suit, mean?
With respect to things climate……?
Given that 7 of the past 8 post-MPT interglacials have each lasted about half a precession cycle (87.5%), can anyone think of anything that might, possibly, could, perhaps up H. sapiens odds?
Anything? Anything at all?? That could possibly span:
“…..Insolation will remain at this level slightly above the glacial inception for the next 4,000 years before it then increases again.” Sirocko et al (A late Eemian aridity pulse in central Europe during the last glacial inception, nature, vol. 436, 11 August 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03905, pp 833-836)
What, on earth, might such a thing turn out to be?????????
Oops!
I misread the Weatherbell title and didn’t realize that it was dew point temps, sorry, that’s what I get for surfing without my reading glasses.
SHOCK NEWS! Arctic Summers Ice-Free by 2013 http://climatism.wordpress.com/2013/08/08/shock-news-arctic-summers-ice-free-by-2013/
Nobody in the know, seems to be talking, but this seems to be the last view you’ll see after a polar bear tackle.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/9.jpg
(someone called the tipped camera long ago, also the tracks in the snow).
MM here in mid Ontario the trees are turning orange a month early any ideas on what this means?
I thought it felt like fall on July 29th. Fall in Southern Ontario at the end of July. So glad I will be headed back to the Bahamas soon. Just have to put in my tax paying time in Ontario first.