NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook today saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season – mid-August through October – yet to come.
“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”
The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.
The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:
- 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
- 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The updated outlook is similar to the pre-season outlook issued in May, but with a reduced expectation for extreme levels of activity. Motivating this change is a decreased likelihood that La Niña will develop and bring its reduced wind shear that further strengthens the hurricane season. Other factors are the lack of hurricanes through July, more variability in the wind patterns across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and slightly lower hurricane season model predictions. In May, the outlook called for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.
“The peak of the hurricane season is almost upon us and it’s important to remain prepared for hurricanes through November,” said Joe Nimmich, FEMA Associate Administrator for Response and Recovery. “Make sure to review your family emergency plan, check that your emergency kit is stocked and consider insurance options. Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricanes at www.ready.gov/hurricanes.”
On the Web:
Updated 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Twitter, Facebook and our other social media channels. Visit our news release archive.
Is “above-normal” synonymous with “above-average”? Or do they have different meanings in this context? If not, it seems it’s more logical to stick with “above-average”, as “normal” is not clearly defined. Also “above-normal” would seem to fall into the latest “extreme weather” narrative that the media and CAGW industry has been pushing lately.
Are Barry and Dorian girls names?
Barry and Dorian are boys names, why do you ask?
Skrallz: spot on. Clearly someone, or group, or entity, has provided a talking-points list of preferred descriptive words. And “normal” versus average is preferred.
When tropical storms fail the hit land (the US of A) they don’t break up and have a better chance of becoming a hurricane. So the lack of storms and huricanes hitting the US is causing a greater number of Huricanes (that would have been just tropical storms but they didn’t run into anything to break them up).
The new Climate Regime(PDO) which began circa 1998 is consistant with increased La Nina’s,
Global Cooling, and active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons.
The world does indeed face a dire and urgent threat from climate change.
It is just not what the Global Warming Alarmists want to think it is.
So it is entirely likely that this hurricane season would be rather more severe.
The climate is presently changing, (as it continues to do naturally), to a colder phase, probably because of reducing solar activity and changing ocean circulation patterns.
Having made so many dire predictions of impending climate catastrophes from overheating, the advocates of Global Warming / Climate Change fail to accept that a climate change towards a cooler climate is more likely to lead to more intense adverse weather. There is good reason to expect this, simply because the energy differential between the poles and the tropics is bound to be greater and that in itself leads to less stable atmospheric conditions.
Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming advocates fail to explain how reduction of man-made atmospheric CO2 can ever can help to control Climate Change towards a cooling world.
These excitable weathermen do not seem to realize that they are responsible for the insurance rates in the South East USA as they happily name fish storms that briefly get up to a stiff breeze and which the Scottish islands would not even mention. May I suggest that the research grants of these ‘forecasters’ are set by the accuracy of their predictions and that their predictions must include the number and strength of land falling hurricanes. That way they have the same amount of ‘skin in the game’ as the insurance payers on the US South East coast to whom these predictions are not just an inter-university guessing tournament.
Are Barry and Dorian girls names?
NOAA transvestites in all probability, masquerading as Models.
The headline could also have been “NOAA revises downward its estimate of hurricane activity”. (The May estimate was 7-11 hurricanes, now 6-9.) But that would have been off message.
Headline October, 2013: Hurricane season unexpectedly quiet.
Anyone with success-rates for past predictions of similar provenance?
If they can “up-date” as they go, it seems that they should be able to show how they “improve” their guesstimates…
A lot of money goes into and rides on these projections…or are they predictions?
Rob says:
August 8, 2013 at 9:03 am
The new Climate Regime(PDO) which began circa 1998 is consistant with increased La Nina’s,
Global Cooling, and active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons.
>>>>>>
Also, as many others have pointed out in other threads, the theory exists that more hurricanes hint at global cooling more than global warming, as global warming tends more to the equalization of global temps (polar extremes moving closer to equator), reducing the necessary temperature imbalances super storms require.
If “normal” is defined as “average”, then any variation above or below is invariably “abnormal” and the “new normal” is obviously the “new abnormal”.
My local TV weather charts show 20c in molten red.
Be very, very afraid. Always.
Well we’re definitely not on pace to break any records… 2005 was on the letter I by this point.
Huh? How many reached land (last count only 1)? How many because hurricanes? 0
I would have hedged my bets on this one. But I guess when you are pushing an agenda, there is only “Advance! Advance” and no retreat.
Did they borrow the Met Office coin to work out the odds?
13 – 6 – 3……this is a joke, right?
….with a 19 – 9 – 5 spread
Why can’t I get those odds with the lottery?
With absolutely no “science”, no computers, just a WAG…..I’d take those odds
IF (big “if” there by the way) … IF the number and power of hurricanes is proportional to the global average temperatures – as we have been assured that it is since Hanson began his religious preaching in 1988 by opening the windows during his July Congressional hearing – then “weather” must be proportional to the immediate “today’s temperature is” “this year” values, right?
So, since we are now suffering from today’s (this month’s) measured +0.17 degrees “too hot” global temperature by satellite measurements, then we must have the same hurricane season as the last time it was this hot ….. back in 1996.
Or 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 ……
Meanwhile…
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2010/hurricane-climatology.gif
The Klotzbach/Gray August forecast came out last week, I apologise for not having the energy to post about it. They’ve lowered their estimate some, but it’s still above average. Their forecast paper goes into methodology and much greater detail than the NOAA forecast.
See http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/aug2013/aug2013.pdf
The summary table is pain to list here, but the important seasonal totals follow. The numbers in parentheses are the 1981-2010 medians, the following is the forecast.
NOAA’s mission is NOT to “understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources”, rather it is to pump out as much pro-CAGW propaganda as it can and make it look like it will be an active Hurricane season in the hope that people will think that this was certainly caused by Global Warming.
The fact that more hurricanes would more probably indicate a cooling World with bigger temperature differences, escapes them.
Are Barry and Dorian girls names?
Hurricane names have alternated boy/girl for a long time… remember Hurricane Andrew?
Rob says:
August 8, 2013 at 9:03 am
Gray et al point more to the AMO than the PDO, and (like NOAA) to 1995 as the start of enhanced activity. (Or, more accurately, seasons where one of the attributes of an active season supports it.) Wind shear from El Nino, dust from Africa, etc still have their role in limiting hurricane activity.
Here in Texas we’re being told this week that our recent spectacular sunsets are due to dust from Africa. Lots of dust from Africa usually means fewer hurricanes than predicted.