The daily mean temp 80 -90 degrees North has remained below climatological normal for more than 120 days, and has now dropped below freezing
Normally, we don’t see this sort of drop until early to mid September. I’m surprised to see this sharp drop today:
See this magnified view:
Bear in mind that this is weather, and that the average temperature for the area could easily go above freezing again. That said, it has been an unusual year for temperature in the Arctic. The closest year to what we have seen so far in 2013 appears to be 2010, which had an early drop below freezing. The high Arctic in year 2013 though, has never gotten above climatological normal, and that’s unusual.
I have created an animation for all years from 1958-2013, with a 1 second interval between frames and a 4 second pause on 2013:
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/
WUWT reader Steve Oak writes:
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For some inexplicable reason I follow the Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North. This started a few years ago when I was looking for information relating to the global temperature that was unadulterated so that I may form my own opinion as to the veracity of global warming claims and found this data set . While not “unadulterated” this looks to be fairly legitimate. I welcome further analysis.
The Danish Meteorological Institute, Center for Ocean and Ice produces a chart plotting the daily mean temp as a function of the day of the year against the average of daily mean temp as a function of the day of the year for the period form 1958 to 2002.
For the last 120 days or so the daily mean has remained below the 1958 to 2002 average. It has also now dropped below freezing.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
While it cannot be assured that the daily mean will remain below freezing, the trend to this point and that there are so few remaining days before the average drops below freezing gives credence to that possibility.
Here is an explanation of the data set from the DMI, COI.
Calculation of the Arctic Mean Temperature
The daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to 2010 T799 data are used and from 2010 to present the T1279 model data are used.
The ERA40 reanalysis data, has been applied to calculation of daily climate values that are plotted along with the daily analysis values in all plots. The data used to determine climate values is the full ERA40 data set, from 1958 to 2002.
More information can be found at:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf.
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Whether or not this early temperature drop translates into an early increased Arctic ice extent or melting remains highly uncertain, as there is a polar storm weather event in progress that may break up sea ice as happened last year: NASA on Arctic sea ice record low – storm ‘wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover’
See this current animation of dewpoint temperature from Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell. It shows moisture bands from the polar low rotating around the north pole.
(NOTE: you may have to click the image below to get it to animate on some browsers)
Keep up to date on the WUWT Sea Ice Page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
From the animated yearly graph of arctic temperatures 1958-2013, it looks to me like the summer time temperatures have decreased over time. The earlier years seem to have much more above the green line than the more recent years.
Mosher must be in a real fix over this.
Ahhh, a giant Arctic storm!
Winter is coming………
A compilation of ice-free Arctic Ocean / North Pole predictions / projections from scientists for the past, present and future. [Some with caveats & uncertainties]. I’ll try and add some more in time for 17 September minimum so we can compare and contrast.
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Master of parsley, sage, rosemary and thyme
August 9, 2013 at 4:19 am
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Booorrriiing.
Can you imagine what it would be like if the hype was the other way around and the MSM and cretins in charge of governments were chasing their tails in fear of global cooling? Maybe something like this…
“Leading scientists have continued to urge Congress to pass legislative action for more funding for the Space Glass, which will use an effect much like having a huge magnifying glass focusing the sun’s rays on remote parts of the oceans and Antarctic glaciers to heat them and reverse some of the effects of global cooling.
Congress passed a $27 billion initiative in 2008 for a consortium of the best scientific minds to come up with a project to overcome the alarming drop in temperatures. The fact that they passed this spending bill in the middle of the worst economic downturn in 75 years demonstrates its importance.
“It is crucial that we continue expeditious work on the Space Glass,” stated senatorial testimony yesterday. “Each day we wait the sun becomes weaker, the earth grows colder as it has since 1998, and it gets harder to reverse the cooling effects. I urge my colleagues to pass this bill for $53 billion so that we can get this project complete and set before the end of this decade.”
Some people think even 2020 could be too late. The southern hemisphere winters continue their trend toward becoming more Antarctic with more record snows in Australia and New Zealand, and another cold snap in Brazil may affect coffee prices and caused snow. Southern hemisphere ice has reached record extent again this year, while northern hemisphere ice had the largest freeze up on record last fall.”
Jimbo says:
August 9, 2013 at 5:31 am
A compilation of ice-free Arctic Ocean / North Pole predictions / projections from scientists for the past, present and future. [Some with caveats & uncertainties]. I’ll try and add some more in time for 17 September minimum so we can compare and contrast.
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What boggles my mind is how anyone with any intelligence can even make statements about an “Ice Fre Arctic” let alone get away with it. In my feeble mind, I don’t understand how these people are not scorned to the point that they go into permanent hiding. Especially if the prediction is for only a few years out, or worse yet, this is supposed to happen *this summer*.
There are other signs. Looking at the pole cams the past few days, it’s clear winter is closing in early this year. There have been a number of snow events and remember that lack (that the dummies portrayed as a lead)? It really froze up, into rink like dense ice. BTW – one of the two pole cams appears to have been blown over and is now being slowly buried in the snow.
Lack -> lake (and I’m not even typing on a phone!)
Where is Hansen?
Arctic doom called off for 41 years.
http://www.hngn.com/articles/9729/20130809/scientists-predict-ice-free-arctic-2054-caused-global-warming.htm
Why again is an ice free Arctic a bad thing?
My favorite quote of the day…
“So now even the once very green Danish media is now spreading the seeds of doubt. So quickly can “settled science” become controversial and hotly disputed. The climate debate is far from over. And when it does end, it looks increasingly as if it’ll end in favor of the skeptics.”
The August 7 print edition of the Danish Jyllands-Posten
Can anyone say Maunder minimum 🙂
I have been following the DMI plots of Arctic temps for several years. I have noted that their plots show no increase in Arctic temps over the last 50 years. However, the satellite sensors show an average increase of about 0.33 degrees C per decade in the Arctic in the lower troposphere since 1979 (although no increase in the Antarctic). Can anyone enlighten me as to the reasons for this discrepancy?
Master of Space and Thyme
The warm temps around the Arctic circle are due to the weather pattern.
Because there is low pressure over the pole it means that the highs have to form around the Arctic circle instead. ln summer this means it brings warm sunny weather to these area’s.
But as we move towards winter and this type of weather pattern is still in the place. Then l think you will quickly understand why l call this set up a “lce age pattern”.
No wonder NOAA is still talking about 2012.
Very strong upper level low pressure(500mb level) equates to low arctic temperatures.
The key to this winter will be blocking patterns(high pressure) between latitudes 50-75 N latitude.
With low solar activity prevailing since 2005, chances are good this pattern may again come about.
When blocking occurs the polar vortex is weak in intensity , which allows cold out breaks to reach the mid latitudes.
IT EQUATES TO A -AO INDEX
@taxed
“But as we move towards winter and this type of weather pattern is still in the place. Then l think you will quickly understand why l call this set up a lce age pattern.”
We are barely half-way through summer, this cyclone is only forecast to last a few more days. What will be interesting to watch in the next week is how much of an effect it will have on the ice. Those anonymously warm temperature over the CAA and Beaufort, forecast to last several more days, will not be doing the ice any good. The real unknown is what damage if any will this cyclone be doing to ice in the Central Arctic Basin. This melt season’s two previous cyclones left the ice badly fractured but had a negative effect on melting. Surface melt season is almost over, most of the melt in the next month will be from the bottom. If this cyclone brings up warm saltier water, then the ice will be affected. If not, then this years ice extent and area will rebound significantly from last year’s disastrous decline. Time will tell.
We are evolving more and more into a more meridional atm circulation pattern which bodes well for N.H. cooling. A meridional atm. circulation IF SUSTAINED AND STRONG ENOUGH can bring on a little ice age for the N.H.
Master of Space and Thyme
Am not that worried what the sea ice extent will be if this pattern shows up in winter.
lts the weather it will bring further to the south where most of the people live is what’s more worrying. lf the jet goes zonal with this pattern in place for much of the winter. Then the ice age comes a visiting for the season.
Thanks to Ryan Maue and Anthony for posting that great animation of the polar storm. Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand data bits.
This has been a terrific year to sit about and watch ice melt, with the fuss about “Lake North Pole,” and the camera tipping polar bear, and now this neat storm.
Hey, I have a couple questions. When a storm sits on the pole, does it have a north side? Which side is the south side?
I’ve been watching the “north pole camera” lots, and the circulation around this storm has moved it across the meridian, and it seems to be heading for Svalbard rather than Fram Strait. Seems to be snowing a lot at the camera, though the lens is fogged.
http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2013/08/06/north-pole-camera-one-pictures-polar-bear-tracks/
I think the arctic ice won’t get broken up as much as last year. This storm involves colder air, and blows around the pole rather than across, and my subjective judgement of the ice is that it is firmer this year.
Re the blue line. True it will stop melting from above at 0°C but it can still melt from below unless the sst in that area has cooled to -1.96°C. and no new ice will form until the sea is at that temperature. Not concerned who produced the graph , just making the point.
Cheers
Interesting comment on the ice situation from some folks attempting to sale this year. Worst Ice in 89 years. Causing some problems for folks: http://northwestpassage2013.blogspot.com/2013/08/dodos-delight-worst-ice-in-89-years.html
RE: Master of Space and Thyme says:
August 8, 2013 at 8:09 pm
It may be slightly colder than normal north of 80, but the rest of the Arctic is anomalously hot.
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Clearly the Arctic Front is somewhere between those points and 80N.
Clearly the cyclone is drawing the ice back in, not expelling it. 🙂 !!