End-Of-August Arctic Sea Ice Extent Hasn’t Fallen In 20 Years, Official Data Show!

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin

No late summer Arctic ice melting in 20 years!

Why are the climate ambulance chasers now way out in Nepal, grabbing at straws? The reason is because there’s little weather action anywhere else that would support the alarmist climate narrative – not even the Arctic.

Typically this time of the year you’ll find them chasing huirricanes in the Atlantic basin, or hollering doomsday warnings way up in the Arctic.

August 27 Arctic sea ice extent

Strangely, the alarmists have been mysteriously abesent from the North Pole region for many years now. Al Gore’s warning (citing experts) of an ice free Arctic by 2013 never materialized. Here’s the August 27 Arctic sea ice extent since 1990:

Chart by NTZ. Data source: Meereisportal

The data show that late-summer Arctic sea ice (August 27) has remained stable over the past two decades!

The post-2007 trend slope is only -0.01 million km²/year, a significant deceleration compared to the rapid loss rate of -0.105 million km² per year observed between 1990 and 2006. In a nutshell, Arctic sea ice late summer minimum has been stable for 20 years!

Record low burned area in Europe 

And espite all the screaming from the media about Europe’s hot and dry summer, and raging forest fires, the data show very calm and encouraging conditions in terms of burned area for 2026 over Europe:

Source: GWIS

The reality is that burned area across Europe this summer has remained at a record low, and will likely remain on track to finish far below normal as rain sweeps over Europe again. These are inconvenient news for climate alarmists.

Low Atlantic cyclone activity this year

Also the hurricane season isn’t cooperating.

The next chart depicts the comparison of the 2026 Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) –which tells us how frequent and strong hurricanes have been– against historical averages and notable El Niño analog years through late August.

Chart by NTZ. Data source: https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

2026 Atlantic cyclone energy has been only 11% of normal activity.

Now you know why the climate ambulance-chasers have all gone to Nepal.

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91 Comments
August 29, 2026 6:12 pm

Just remember:

Polar bears don’t need the sea ice, it’s the seals that need the ice.

Reply to  Steve Case
August 29, 2026 9:34 pm

A further elaboration. The seals need spring Arctic sea ice for their whelping season. Polar bears get about 75-80% of their total annual caloric intake during the seal whelping season. Nobody ever said there wouldn’t be spring Arctic sea ice. The whole polar bear thing was based on fundamentally wrong polar bear biology from the beginning.

SxyxS
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 30, 2026 1:31 am

The polar bears and sea ice simply refused to disappear as experts predicted.
I guess Big Oil bribed them into existence somehow.

And seal population? – “all four seal species have large, healthy populations ” – arctic report card 2024

Either arctic sea ice is not needed and its disappearance highly beneficial,
or the arctic sea ice decline(and its end by 2014 – Nobel Laureate Al Gore)
is based on the trick by starting at its peak extent in 1978/1979 and ignoring the previous satellite(Nimbus) data since 1964

Bob B.
Reply to  SxyxS
August 30, 2026 5:16 am

I would advise climate “experts” to stay away from prediction markets.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 30, 2026 2:03 am

This was discussed last January here at WUWT

GeorgeInSanDiego
Reply to  Rud Istvan
August 30, 2026 9:48 am

Poor polar bears. When Al Gore was born there were 10,000 of them, now there are only 25,000 of them.

August 29, 2026 6:36 pm

Record-low 2025 and 2026 ice extents restore Arctic winter sea-ice decline
“Recent analyses have suggested that the decadal rate of Arctic winter sea-ice extent decline weakened in the early 2020s, with 20-y trends becoming statistically insignificant. Here we show from more up-to-date observations that the exceptionally low 2025 and 2026 ice extent winters reversed this picture, with sea-ice extent during the growth and peak phases returning to record lows and 20-y decline trends becoming significant again. Further analysis of CMIP6 model analogues shows that the observed 2025 decline was unusual but physically plausible under comparable Arctic warming, and is more consistent with ongoing winter sea ice reduction than with a return to values seen in the early 2020s.”

NTZ doing what NTZ does best: cherry picking like it’s an Olympic sport. 

No wonder pages like this exist:

https://www.desmog.com/climate-disinformation-database/

Reply to  Eldrosion
August 29, 2026 7:04 pm

DeSmog is certainly the place to go to for climate malinformation. !

Funded by far-left billionaire globalists.

Current Arctic sea ice extent is above that of 2007, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2024, and 2025…. and basically right on the 19 year average.

High Arctic had its coldest year in decades.

Arctic sea ice is also in the top 5% or so of the last 10,000 years.

The recovery from the EXTREME highs of the LIA have, unfortunately, ceased.

And using 6 chimps to do their modelling.. dumb.. but probably better than using climate scientists.

Reply to  bnice2000
August 29, 2026 9:40 pm

Don’t believe your lying eyes. Please refer to the modelling. Sea ice should be down coz climate change.

Reply to  Mike
August 29, 2026 10:25 pm

Yeah, there may be room for improvement in the modeling in this specific instance:

[“24] Observations indicate a downward trend in September Arctic sea ice extent from 1953–2006 that is larger than any of the IPCC AR4 simulations, and current summer minima are approximately 30 years ahead of the ensemble mean model forecast.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007GL029703

Bryan A
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 29, 2026 10:31 pm

Which, of course, ends in 2006 just prior to the summer time stabilization lasting 20 years now

Reply to  Bryan A
August 29, 2026 10:40 pm

And started at an extreme maximum in 1979 not far down from the extent of the LIA.

.. and is still way above MWP levels of sea ice extents.

Having the Arctic chock full of sea ice most of the year is not good for anyone or anything.

Nobody with any scientific nous gives one hoot what climate models say. They are nonsense, and have always been nonsense.

Reply to  Bryan A
August 29, 2026 11:39 pm

There is no stabilization during winter.

Bryan A
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 12:19 am

Cherry picker!

Reply to  Bryan A
August 30, 2026 12:24 am

Yes, Pierre Gosselin is a cherry picker.

MarkW
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 8:11 am

Reality denier.

Reply to  bnice2000
August 30, 2026 11:16 am

Correction: High Arctic had record-breaking cold in 2026🥶

Reply to  Neutral1966
August 30, 2026 3:20 pm

Correction accepted 🙂

leefor
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 29, 2026 8:56 pm

Lower even than 2012? 😉

Reply to  Eldrosion
August 29, 2026 9:46 pm

Further analysis of CMIP6 model analogues shows that the observed 2025 decline was unusual but physically plausible under comparable Arctic warming, and is more consistent with ongoing winter sea ice reduction than with a return to values seen in the early 2020s.”

So only Winter ice extent? If warming were occurring, why no decline in Summer? What happened to the ice-free Arctic we were promised?

Reply to  Graemethecat
August 29, 2026 10:26 pm

What happened to the ice-free Arctic we were promised?”

Don’t worry. It’s coming.

Bryan A
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 29, 2026 10:33 pm

How does this summer compare to summer ice levels 125,000 years ago

Reply to  Bryan A
August 29, 2026 10:42 pm

There were long periods earlier in the Holocene when the Arctic was “ice free” ie less than 1 Wadham.

At the moment it is probably in the top 5% or so of the last 10,000 years.

Reply to  Bryan A
August 29, 2026 11:16 pm

Why do you ask?

Bryan A
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 12:22 am

How do you know an Ice Free Summer isn’t a natural occurrence during all interglacial periods over the last 880,000 year repeating Glaciation-Interglacial cycle?

Reply to  Bryan A
August 30, 2026 12:25 am

What makes you so sure it isn’t?

Bryan A
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 7:52 am

It was warmer during prior optimums for starters. Don’t believe me! Just look at the data!!
comment image

Bryan A
Reply to  Bryan A
August 30, 2026 10:41 pm

Ya know, looking at that chart, if CO2 drove temperatures in lock step (like it kinda indicates prior to CO2 jumping from 280ppm to over 425ppm) then shouldn’t the Red Temperature line be up at the 20°C level?
I wonder what happened to something so lock step over the last 800K years?

Reply to  Bryan A
August 30, 2026 11:36 pm

Indeed. If temperatures were a function of CO2, they would change before CO2. In fact, T changes before CO2. The inescapable conclusion is that CO2 is a function of T.

Bryan A
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 10:35 pm

I never posited that Ice Free Arctic Summers were anything But Natural

Eldrosion

Reply to 

Bryan A

 August 30, 2026 12:25 am

What makes you so sure it isn’t?

Never said it wasn’t!

Reply to  Bryan A
August 30, 2026 12:42 am

Biomarkers show the Arctic was often close to ice free during much of the Holocene.

But nowhere near that now.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  bnice2000
August 30, 2026 6:21 am

“But nowhere near that now.”

Just possibly because there is ~ 40 W/m^2 less June insolation now than was the case at the height of the holocene thermal max.

comment image

Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 30, 2026 3:21 pm

[snip ~ctm]
comment image

Reply to  bnice2000
August 30, 2026 5:22 pm

.

clown
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 30, 2026 11:40 pm

You are now saying that insolation is a factor in temperatures? I thought you maintained that CO2 was the control knob.

Reply to  Bryan A
August 30, 2026 12:41 am

Current Arctic sea ice extent is in the top 5% or so of the Holocene.

Tom Johnson
Reply to  Bryan A
August 30, 2026 4:52 am

Speaking to you from a location in Michigan that was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice some 25,000 years ago, the climate here was quite consistent summer to winter, but was significantly constrained, and a bit cool.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 1:53 am

What happened to the ice-free Arctic we were promised?

You weren’t ….

comment image

Just a certain Prof. Wadhams projecting and giving a personal opinion on the basis of a trend over too-short a time.

Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 30, 2026 3:27 am

Wadhams was so stupid he got a unit of ice area named after him.

Climate model outputs are totally meaningless, because they don’t apply to any real physics of the Earth’s atmosphere.

Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 30, 2026 4:52 am

It wasn’t just Wadhams. Your super climate scientist Al Gore and others also predicted an ice-free Arctic. Good of you to admit, though, that climate scientists commonly give personal opinions on the basis of a trend over too-short a time.

Bryan A
Reply to  Phil R
August 30, 2026 8:02 am

It’s called Climate Science Du-jour.

Bryan A
Reply to  Anthony Banton
August 30, 2026 8:00 am

Numerous scientists, organizations, and public figures have predicted ice-free Arctic summers, with timelines shifting from as early as 2013 to broader windows between the 2030s and 2050.

Key Predictions and Timelines

  • Early Projections (2007–2013): Following a steep drop in summer sea ice in 2007, some researchers—such as Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)—suggested the Arctic could see an essentially ice-free summer. Naval researcher Wieslaw Maslowski projected a potential clear-cap window around 2016 based on high-melt rates.
  • Public Figures: Al Gore popularized these early warnings, citing model probabilities at international climate conferences regarding rapid polar ice declines.
  • Modern Consensus (2030s–2050): Recent studies using updated global climate models (like CMIP6) project that the Arctic Ocean could drop below 1 million square kilometers of ice during summers—the threshold for being considered “ice-free”—sometime between the 2030s and 2050. Recent analyses indicate this milestone may arrive closer to 2030 due to localized warming factors and natural climate variability
bdgwx
Reply to  Bryan A
August 30, 2026 1:21 pm

Following a steep drop in summer sea ice in 2007, some researchers—such as Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)—suggested the Arctic could see an essentially ice-free summer.

No he didn’t. In fact, he said “Seeing an essentially ice free Arctic Ocean in summer by 2016 is extremely unlikely.”

Naval researcher Wieslaw Maslowski projected a potential clear-cap window around 2016 based on high-melt rates.

No he didn’t. What he said is that 2016 is the earliest possible date that it could happen based only on extrapolation and warned readers that “Simple extrapolation from hindcasts sheds little light on the problem” of when the Arctic will actually go ice-free. And the earlier claim of 2016 from Al Gore turned out to be fake news.

Numerous scientists

The only scientist I’ve been able to verify who actually made an early prediction to the media was Dr. Wedhams in an interview with The Guardian. Other scientists criticized his prediction as not being consistent with the evidence at the time. And Wedham’s himself was giving a different prediction to the scientific community than the one he gave to the media.

Bryan A
Reply to  bdgwx
August 30, 2026 1:35 pm
  • In 2007, media stories featured the claims of Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski, who claimed that the ice would be gone by 2013.
  • The following year, Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) predicted that 2008 could be “become ice free at the North Pole this year.”
  • And in 2009, Al Gore announced ‘there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years.’

https://thegwpf.org/a-brief-history-of-arctic-angst/

bdgwx
Reply to  Bryan A
August 30, 2026 3:59 pm

In 2007, media stories featured the claims of Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski, who claimed that the ice would be gone by 2013.

That was Al Gore’s prediction. He falsely attributed it to Maslowski. Of the matter Maslowski said “t’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.” Refer to the citation above.

The following year, Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) predicted that 2008 could be “become ice free at the North Pole this year.”

He didn’t say that. Here are his exact words immediately following the 2007 melt season.

And in 2009, Al Gore announced ‘there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years.’

Yep. He’s made other predictions not supported by the consilience of evidence as well.

Reply to  bdgwx
August 30, 2026 9:35 pm

Well I’m impressed, he used “consilience of evidence” in a sentence.

Mike Larkin
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 2:55 am

Yep, it will be here in 2056, and when it isn’t in 2056 it will be ice free in 2086.

MarkW
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 8:13 am

If you clap your hands, Tinkerbell won’t die.

bdgwx
Reply to  Graemethecat
August 30, 2026 6:22 am

What happened to the ice-free Arctic we were promised?

We are ahead of schedule in that area. It is looking like 2050 give or take a few years is the latest estimate of when the first essential ice-free (< 1e6 km^2 of extent) summer may occur. That is down from the 2100 or so estimate the IPCC originally gave.

Reply to  bdgwx
August 30, 2026 1:11 pm

LOL.. mindless estimates from people who are just making agenda driven guesses.

Utterly meaningless.

Reply to  bdgwx
August 30, 2026 3:25 pm

Arctic sea is FAR above the extent it has been for most of the last 10,000 years.

During much of the first 2/3 of the Holocene biomarkers show there were regular periods where sea ice dropped below 1 Wadham

LIA, and around 1979 were periods of extreme high Arctic sea ice anomaly.

The Arctic has not yet recovered back to more normal Holocene levels, and doesn’t look like doing it any time soon.

Reply to  bdgwx
August 31, 2026 12:28 am

With your ability to see decades into the future you could be a millionaire on the Stock Market.

Bryan A
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 29, 2026 10:29 pm

“Climate Disinformation Database” sounds like a repository suppository for Climate Alarmism talking points!

Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 4:15 am

… the exceptionally low 2025 and 2026 ice extent winters reversed this picture, with sea-ice extent during the growth and peak phases returning to record lows and 20-y decline trends becoming significant again

Tricky things, trends.

It is well known that “extremes at endpoints” tend to be heavily “weighted” when calculating trends, often leading to counter-intuitive results.

The last two “exceptionally low” sea-ice extents in winter had a “significant” effect on the twenty-year trends … who’s “cherry-picking” now ?

What would happen to those “significant” 20-year statistics if the Arctic sea-ice extent “reverted to the (recent) mean” next winter (/ March 2027) ?

MarkW
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 8:10 am

Whinning about cherry picking while citing a site that does nothing but.
The irony, it burns.

heme212
August 29, 2026 7:00 pm

right about now some warmunist will claim you are cherry picking the data by picking the starting date of your series.

completely oblivious to the obvious fact that it represents the most recent 20 years.

makes me laugh and puke every time

heme212
August 29, 2026 7:01 pm

told ya

August 29, 2026 7:10 pm

The problem isn’t really the start date, heme212. There is good evidence that Arctic sea ice decline paused for roughly 20 years.

But that pause appears to be over, or at least largely confined to the summer months, because the decline in winter sea ice extent has resumed.

Had NTZ (or you) actually checked the data, you would have known that.

Though I wouldn’t be surprised if Pierre Gosselin was already aware of it.

Richard M
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 29, 2026 8:53 pm

So, you are claiming all those climate scientists who claimed lower sea ice extent was a problem were lying to us? In case you weren’t aware of it, every year the lowest sea ice extent occurs in the summer. That means your “winter sea ice” is completely irrelevant and your comment is complete nonsense.

Reply to  Richard M
August 29, 2026 10:20 pm

And it was only a dip for one year to a level a bit below 2017.. 2026 maximum is slightly higher, and if the current season continues as it is, 2027 will be higher again.

Average has barely moved, neither has the minimum.

Arctic
Reply to  Richard M
August 29, 2026 10:48 pm

Yeah, I imagine those conclusions are difficult to accept for someone who has made confident cooling predictions based on Arctic sea ice behavior:

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2026/08/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-july-2026-0-48-deg-c/#comment-1750863

No wonder you only mention the summer minima, both in the linked comment and in your comment here.

Maybe, when reality inevitably falsifies that prediction, you’ll finally be willing to acknowledge that you got it wrong.

Richard M
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 4:59 am

Nice try at changing the subject. We’re discussing YOUR silly claim for which you have provided no logic to support. Once again, how can no change in minimum sea ice be irrelevant while minor changes in sea ice levels 4-5 times higher be a problem?

PS. My prediction will either fail or not within the next few years. Let’s see how that works out. I’m thinking you are going to be very disappointed …. again.

BTW, my theory explains why the only change is in winter sea ice.

Reply to  Richard M
August 30, 2026 4:50 pm

No one is saying it is irrelevant.

But the continued decline in winter sea ice extent is also relevant information and should be presented alongside it for proper context.

The important point is that a short term pause or slowdown in the decline of summer sea ice does not necessarily indicate that global warming has ceased.

Internal variability can affect the trajectory of Arctic sea ice over shorter periods, and that context is worth mentioning. My criticism is simply that this article did not provide that broader context.

 I’m thinking you are going to be very disappointed …. again.”

If you say so. There is no point in trading barbs. We can simply watch what happens over the next few years and see whether your claim holds up.

That said, it is worth remembering that you have made specific predictions about this before, and they did not turn out as expected. In December 2020, you wrote:

“Richard M says:

December 4, 2020 at 9:21 AM

Barry,

Your question is actually easy to answer. The satellite data starts during the -AMO which then became positive in the 1990s. It is still positive today. The satellite data (and Arctic sea ice levels) match that trend very nicely.

However, correlation is not enough. We need to see what happens when the AMO goes negative. That should happen relatively soon (within 7 years?). 

My own personal guess is the PDO will go negative in 2021 or 2022. The AMO will go negative in 2024. This will start a period of cooling that will negate much of the warming we’ve seen since the 1990s by the time we reach the mid 2030s.

Maybe that will return climate science back to reality and the oceans can be studied to determine just how long the Modern Warm Period will last.”

https://web.archive.org/web/20210125051727/http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/12/uah-global-temperature-update-for-november-2020-0-53-deg-c/#comment-564288

You were correct about your PDO prediction, but incorrect about your AMO prediction – it has remained positive over the past 5 years.

As for your global cooling prediction, we haven’t reached 2030s yet, so that specific endpoint cannot be falsified at the current time. But the trajectory through 2026 is very much not what you’d expect from a cooling reversal.

Richard M
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 9:03 pm

It is looking very much like the AMO transition has already started which makes my “within 7 years” still accurate and in 2020 I couldn’t know the Hunga-Tonga warming effect would show up. That likely delayed the AMO transition.

In 2026 we have El Nino gumming up the works. However, that didn’t stop the high Arctic from having its coldest summer on record. Since 2027 is likely to see a La Nina develop, that will provide a clearer picture. Of course, the full transition could take a decade just like it did last time 1996 – 2007.

Reply to  Eldrosion
August 29, 2026 9:53 pm

You clearly aren’t terribly bright. If the decline in Arctic sea ie is confined to Winter, by definition it means the Arctic will NEVER become ice-free.

People are waking up to the lies of alarmists like you.

Reply to  Graemethecat
August 29, 2026 10:22 pm

The decline is occurring in all months of the year.

The present slowdown during the summer months is a temporary interruption of the ongoing long term reduction.

It is not a cessation of sea ice loss.

See this: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63520-0

Reply to  Eldrosion
August 29, 2026 10:44 pm

The graph above shows you are badly misinformed. !

There is basically no trend in any of the yearly maximum, yearly minimum or daily average values.

Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 12:09 am

The decline is happening in all month of the year

But not in August. See graph above.

The present slowdown during the summer months is a temporary interruption of the ongoing long term reduction.

You have no idea what the future holds.

Reply to  Graemethecat
August 30, 2026 12:12 am

“But not in August. See graph above.”

The graph above shows that the decline is occurring in August.

Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 1:42 am

Huh? Are you looking at the same graph as me? Arctic sea ice extent on Aug 27 2006 was 5 million sq km. Sea ice extent on Aug 27 2026 is 5 million sq km.

Reply to  Graemethecat
August 30, 2026 4:52 pm

Yes, I’m looking at the same graph as you. The difference is that I’m looking at the complete record from the beginning.

That is important as well.

Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 11:46 pm

Glad you don’t dispute my assertion that there is zero difference in ice extent on Aug 27 2006 and on Aug 27 2026.

Victor
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 29, 2026 11:11 pm

You are correct in that Arctic sea ice is decreasing in winter due to increasing solar radiation.
The Earth’s orbit took a closer path around the sun after aphelion July 6, 2026 this year, which will increase solar radiation this fall and winter.
The closer path around the sun will cause this fall and winter to be warmer than normal.

Can you explain why no research is being done on the variations in the Earth’s orbit that cause a major impact on the Earth’s climate?

Can you explain why climate scientists don’t do any anomaly on the solar radiation at Earth distance to compare with the Earth’s global temperature anomaly?

Why do climate scientists withhold research on the variations in the Earth’s orbit and solar radiation?
Are climate scientists deliberately withholding this research so as not to lose the research grants for their research?

Reply to  Victor
August 29, 2026 11:27 pm

Victor, sea ice has been declining during the aphelion months as well. Clearly, something other than orbital configuration is at work.

Greenhouse gases.

Victor
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 2:23 am

Is it greenhouse gases or changes in the Earth’s orbit that are causing the Earth’s temperature to increase after aphelion July 6, 2026 this year?
If it is due to greenhouse gases, how much have greenhouse gases increased after aphelion July 6, 2026 to cause this temperature increase?
comment image

MarkW
Reply to  Victor
August 30, 2026 8:19 am

The models say it is due to CO2, therefore it is due to CO2. Real science requires one to ignore any data that goes against what the models predict.

Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 8:32 am

There is good evidence that Arctic sea ice decline paused for roughly 20 years.

Following your post about the Chan et al (2026) paper concluding that “20-y decline trends becoming significant again” I checked the NSIDC 20-year trends for the Arctic (see graph attached below).

For all months the twenty-year trends were always negative.

NB : This actually surprised me. My (increasingly unreliable) memory had the notion the twenty-year trend for at least one month had “touched the zero line”, but when I “actually checked the data” it turned out to be a “hallucination” on my part. Live and learn …

Arctic sea-ice continues to decline on that particular timescale, but the rates are highly variable during the 21st century (so far).

But that pause appears to be over, or at least largely confined to the summer months, because the decline in winter sea ice extent has resumed.

The twenty-year trends for the “winter” months (December + January + February, or “DJF”) fell from 1998 to 2011/2012, to around -60,000 km² per year, and have since risen again (but remain negative).

It is actually the “spring” months (MAM) have been the most constant since 1998, the trends for the “summer” months (JJA) go down and back up again but the wildest swings are for September (the annual minimum month) and October.

Being pedantic … who, me ?!? … the winter month “declines” never actually “resumed” because they never went away (/ turned positive), they just got stronger (more negative) and then weaker again.

Any “pauses” in the (monthly) data were limited to the “the (20-year) trend was no longer statistically significant” variety.

Had NTZ (or you) actually checked the data, you would have known that.

Starting URL for NSIDC sea-ice data : https://noaadata.apps.nsidc.org/NOAA/G02135/north/

Monthly data can be found in the ./monthly/data/ subdirectory (1 text / CSV file per month).

NB : The ./daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v4.0.csv file was timestamped “30-Aug-2026 10:49” when I accessed it, and contained (daily) values up to yesterday (the 29th, NSIDC are very quick when it comes to processing the “raw” satellite data and making it available to the public).
I used the average from the 30th of July to 29/8/2026 as a “preliminary estimate” for the “August 2026” monthly value. With an offset of only 2 days it should be “close enough for government work” …

Calculating the 20-year trends for each month gave me the attached graph.

To me, at least, it raises more questions than (immediate and simplistic) answers.

Sea-ice-trends_Jan1998-August2026
Victor
Reply to  Mark BLR
August 30, 2026 8:55 am

It is the months of July, August, September and October that deviate.
What is the reason for these months to deviate during the period 2000-2030?

Reply to  Victor
August 30, 2026 10:18 am

It is the months of July, August, September and October that deviate.

Good observation.

Redoing the colour coding as “three sets of 4 months” rather than “four sets of 3 months / meteorological seasons” gave me the attached graph.

You are definitely onto something there, I’m just not sure what, precisely …

What is the reason for these months to deviate during the period 2000-2030?

Good question.

I have no idea, but I suspect it is for a combination of factors rather than “the (singular) reason”.

PS : My graphs only go up to 2025/6. For twenty-thirty you will need to consult a fortune teller.

Sea-ice-trends_Jan1998-August2026_V2
Victor
Reply to  Mark BLR
August 30, 2026 11:51 am

If October follows the same trend, it will be back to the starting point around 2030.

A while ago I experimented with a graph that has 2 month long annual windows on solar radiation at Earth distance.
Could it be varying solar radiation from year to year for different months that affects the ice expansion?

I have a graph with 2 pre and 2 post 2 month long annual windows.
It shows that there are different variations in solar radiation from year to year.
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heme212
Reply to  Eldrosion
August 30, 2026 2:44 pm

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feel free to cherry pick this

August 29, 2026 7:52 pm

And let’s not forget that the Russians now have several very large nuclear powered ice -breakers with heated hulls, that they are using to keep the transport route along their northern shore open as long as possible.

Only “man-made” warming up in the Arctic.

Neil Pryke
August 29, 2026 8:55 pm

In answer to the question about why the catastrophists flocking to Nepal…desperate to hang that crisis on the Climate Change hook…

That’s the way catastrophists always operate…

Is Greta Thunberg anywhere near Nepal..?

No..?

BenVincent
August 29, 2026 10:13 pm

Can’t believe all the typos.

August 29, 2026 10:51 pm

Arctic sea ice is closely tied to the AMO

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That somewhat erratic cycle will be heading back down soon, and Arctic sea ice extent will increase..

Will be fun watching the antics of the sea ice worriers.! 😉

Ed Zuiderwijk
August 30, 2026 12:39 am

Perhaps the forest fire data will be homogenised in order to crank it up a bit.

Bruce Cobb
August 30, 2026 3:12 am

You have to understand that CO2 heat is Ninja Heat. It can vanish into the deep oceans, and then reappear when you least expect it. It also can transform itself into weather, especially extreme or weird weather. I suspect CO2 heat is just biding its time in the Arctic. You never know when it will pop out and then boom, there goes the ice. You just wait.

August 30, 2026 5:23 am

“the alarmists have been mysteriously abesent”

check your spelling!

August 30, 2026 11:34 am

I find it interesting, that during the winter of 2012, we were reminded by the “experts” that the winter maximum was virtually irrelevant. That was after a relatively high winter max of sea ice. Of course, that winter max was followed by the lowest summer minimum on record, at which point all hell was unleashed by the media. And of course, all the focus we were then told should be on summer minimum. Since then, as this article correctly points out, summer minima have stabilised……but “hey presto”….. now, we should be focusing on the decline in winter max – in other words, the 180 degree opposite to what was considered the more important focus in 2012.
Personally, I’ve always observed the amount of area under the mean line for the whole year, rather than on just max or min. In that respect, it has to be acknowledged that there is indeed a slow decline in ice area, even by comparison with 2012.

Edward Katz
August 30, 2026 2:22 pm

The Canadian government had better take notice of these numbers before it devotes billions to expanding the port of Churchill on Hudson Bay because it believes global warming will reduce the extent and duration of ice on the waterway. It hopes to construct freighters with special reinforced bows to smash through the reduced ice levels that are supposed just around the corner except there’s no guarantee of this being permanent or more likely just a short-term occurrence as the graphs seem to indicate.

Reply to  Edward Katz
August 30, 2026 3:30 pm

For shipping, it is the minimum sea ice they need to drop in extent… and that isn’t happening.

Maximum sea ice is always impassable, so a minor one or two year dip is totally irrelevant.