The daily mean temp 80 -90 degrees North has remained below climatological normal for more than 120 days, and has now dropped below freezing
Normally, we don’t see this sort of drop until early to mid September. I’m surprised to see this sharp drop today:
See this magnified view:
Bear in mind that this is weather, and that the average temperature for the area could easily go above freezing again. That said, it has been an unusual year for temperature in the Arctic. The closest year to what we have seen so far in 2013 appears to be 2010, which had an early drop below freezing. The high Arctic in year 2013 though, has never gotten above climatological normal, and that’s unusual.
I have created an animation for all years from 1958-2013, with a 1 second interval between frames and a 4 second pause on 2013:
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/
WUWT reader Steve Oak writes:
=============================================================
For some inexplicable reason I follow the Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North. This started a few years ago when I was looking for information relating to the global temperature that was unadulterated so that I may form my own opinion as to the veracity of global warming claims and found this data set . While not “unadulterated” this looks to be fairly legitimate. I welcome further analysis.
The Danish Meteorological Institute, Center for Ocean and Ice produces a chart plotting the daily mean temp as a function of the day of the year against the average of daily mean temp as a function of the day of the year for the period form 1958 to 2002.
For the last 120 days or so the daily mean has remained below the 1958 to 2002 average. It has also now dropped below freezing.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
While it cannot be assured that the daily mean will remain below freezing, the trend to this point and that there are so few remaining days before the average drops below freezing gives credence to that possibility.
Here is an explanation of the data set from the DMI, COI.
Calculation of the Arctic Mean Temperature
The daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to 2010 T799 data are used and from 2010 to present the T1279 model data are used.
The ERA40 reanalysis data, has been applied to calculation of daily climate values that are plotted along with the daily analysis values in all plots. The data used to determine climate values is the full ERA40 data set, from 1958 to 2002.
More information can be found at:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf.
==================================================================
Whether or not this early temperature drop translates into an early increased Arctic ice extent or melting remains highly uncertain, as there is a polar storm weather event in progress that may break up sea ice as happened last year: NASA on Arctic sea ice record low – storm ‘wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover’
See this current animation of dewpoint temperature from Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell. It shows moisture bands from the polar low rotating around the north pole.
(NOTE: you may have to click the image below to get it to animate on some browsers)
Keep up to date on the WUWT Sea Ice Page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
I’m not going to get too excited until I see a few of these in a row. … and an increase in multi year arctic ice.
Yes .. I know it is sadistic .. but if millions of people dying and starvation and all that is what it takes to shake the public and idiots in the liberal media away from this CO2 non-sense … then it is what it is. Global Cooling is the killer, and we here all know that. However, it’s going to take millions dying to convince the numb and the dumb about it’s reality.
But never fear … CO2 causing global cooling will be the next scare tactic. Because it has not been, is not, and never will be about climate .. it is about the evil oil companies.
From Jimbo on August 8, 2013 at 6:00 pm:
Bah. By the yearly beat, during the seasons, months, even day to day, the ice wriggles up and down, as it all goes up, and down, and sometimes when down the winds swirl it all around, as extent drops to levels that astound, now this year looks like a rebound.
Is the Arctic sea ice spiraling, or twerking?
Ah, twerking it is.
Perhaps we can set up a celebrity fundraiser for the Arctic. We’ll send up Miley Cyrus and Rhianna. They can twerk for the cameras, then hand-feed some raw tofu burgers to those helpless starving polar teddy bears.
Tiredoc says:
August 8, 2013 at 6:15 pm
It’s worse than we thought!
NO NO NO…..it’s worse than that….
our hummingbird friends here are swarming the feeder something they do just before migration about a month early and there are flocks of geese gathering for migration feeding like crazy on the grain missed by the harvesters based on these and other animals in the area it feels to me that winter is coming and it will hit hard and fast.
It may be slightly colder than normal north of 80, but the rest of the Arctic is anomalously hot. Check out the temp anomalies along the almost all of the coast along the Arctic Sea.
http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/2263/3jnh.jpg
Dr. Deanster says:
August 8, 2013 at 7:45 pm
Yes .. I know it is sadistic .. but if millions of people dying and starvation and all that is what it takes to shake the public and idiots in the liberal media away from this CO2 non-sense … then it is what it is.
=======================
They either voted for it or couldn’t be bothered to vote against it – in the purportedly “educated” world that is.
Darwinian evolution, live as it happens.
Always fighting off the Devil. Our genetic heritage.
The warmists have ignored multiple observations that appear to indicate that the majority of the warming in the last 50 years and in the last 150 years was due to solar magnetic cycle changes. If the climate war was not being fought, scientists would have written papers about the anomalies, discussed the anomalies at conferences, and might possibly have solved this problem.
As the paper below notes there is a delay in cooling in the high Arctic of 10 to 12 years when there is a change from a short solar magnetic cycle to a long solar magnetic cycle, which is roughly one solar magnetic cycle. As there is now the start of cooling in both the Arctic and Antarctic and there is the start of climate changes that match what happened during the Maunder minimum it appears the mechanism that was inhibiting the GCR modulation of planetary clouds must be complete.
Base on what has happened before there should be significant cooling of the high Arctic in the winter which will result in thicker sea ice.
Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
http://www.climate4you.com/
The following graph is a comparison of the past solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 to solar cycle 24.
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
http://arxiv.org/abs/1112.3256
Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures
The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles.
The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10 to 12 years.
These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models.
We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5 ±2C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009 to 2020) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈6 C.
William: Latitude and longitude of Svalbard (Longyearbyen)
78.2167° N, 15.6333° E Svalbard Longyearbyen, Coordinates
From Master of Space and Thyme on August 8, 2013 at 8:09 pm:
Around “almost all of the coast” would be temperature readings at settlements. If it’s colder than usual, then there will be more heating inside and vehicles left idling than usual, etc, thus increased UHI-type temperature measurement contamination.
What do the satellites say? That’s what matters, as that’s what should be trusted.
Nope.
1. I still don’t “get it”. Been looking at this DMI plot for many years, and still cannot figure out if they are plotting only a multi-day “model” (or forecast) of what they “think”: is going on at the “average” latitude of 80 north, or if they have several independent thermometers/weather stations at various locations near 80 north latitude that they “average” together to get their day-by-day changing plot.
2. What is the best “equation” of their green line “yearly-average” curve?
3. If the green line is their best-average “yearly estimate”, then what do they have for a daily minimum and maximum limit around that “average” temperature, and does the (maximum daily temperature) – (minimum daily temperature) change over the year?
4. I have read a daily temperature chart for Thule AFB Greenland at 79+ latitude that plots average hourly temperature for each day. Is that hourly plot a good approximation for the rest of the arctic at 79-81 north latitudes?
It cools off quickly once the days shorten. And actually, even a 10 degree temperature anomaly doesn’t mean much when it is -20 instead of -30. What matters most to biology is number of days below freezing. We currently have a more meridional rather than zonal jet flow and that can mean warm air being brought far north in some areas and cold air being brought far south in others. The latest advance forecasts I hare seen for this winter call for above average temperatures in Alaska but temperatures below normal in most of the US, which would seem to imply such a meridional flow. It’s really going to depend on what happens in the Pacific. If we see things trending more to El Nino, we will see things become more zonal in most cases. If it drifts toward La Nina conditions, more meridional. If it stays neutral, who knows, because we don’t have a lot of data from long periods of time stuck in ENSO neutral conditions. That is generally just a transitional condition when things are going between the two other states.
isnt the freezing point of sea water -2C (271.15K)?
Looks like Aquarius showed up! My canine teeth tell me that meat is good! And the Mayan calendar thing with the cycles is so last year.
@ur momisugly crosspatch
The anomalously hot temperatures are nowhere close to being below freezing, we are looking at temps over 80F this weekend near 70 degrees north along the coast.
Here are two examples
http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?nu-16&unit=i
http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?nt-16&unit=i
Anti-Albedo,,,,,,,,, now what about the massive amount of brine created from this much ice formation?
Really, what does that deep water flow/impact do? It sure is a cold injection into the global system
I can’t find much on it. Can you?
FWIW, we have had snow twice in the last week on the highest peaks hear in the Colorado Front Range. Not unheard of in August but not that common either.
Similarly, in looking at models, I have been struck how low the heights / thicknesses are in Canada for this time of year – I am guessing likely tied to the Arctic cold seen in this post.
Of course , the most interesting question is what is driving the arctic cold & does it have any implications for the upcoming winter & beyond ? Simple question, difficult to answer. If we can’t easily answer that question, why would anyone think they could predict the climate in 100 years ??
dp says:
August 8, 2013 at 6:16 pm
Up until 2009 they took off for the holidays?? at the end of the year, and only recorded 360 days as the result of the limits of the spread sheet they were using. From 2009 on it shows all 365+ leap days when applicable. It was noticed here at WUWT and they responded in 2009.
@ur momisugly kadaka (KD Knoebel)
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html
Master of Space and Thyme said on August 8, 2013 at 9:04 pm, like it should somehow have actually meant something:
Oh good, I ask for satellite info after “Master” mumbles about temp anomalies. The response is a forecast map, “Temperature Anomaly during the first 7.5-day period from: Thu, 08 AUG 2013 at 12Z to Fri, 16 AUG 2013 at 00Z”.
Which shows it is indeed forecast to be “anomalously hot”, “Normal Temperature derived from CRU monthly climatology for 1901-2000”.
Wonderful. It’s not from a satellite, not even data. It’s a forecast. Relative to the 20th century temperatures. With nothing telling me how “anomalously hot” it’ll be compared to last year, or the last thirty years, or any sort of frame of reference that’s usable.
Another FAIL from the Master of Speciousness and Thyme-wasting.
WUWT reader Steve Oak writes:
“For some inexplicable reason I follow the Daily . . . ”
Me too. This takes a lot of beer and popcorn but in the interest of keeping up with the science it is well worth the expense. Cheers!
Full disclosure: Here in central Washington State our weather has been warm and dry. Summers in central WA are always warm and dry.
Right. And it doesn’t really mean much. First of all, data only goes back to 1955 in Kugluktuk so records there don’t really mean a lot, besides, these temperatures aren’t unusual there for this time of year. The record high temperature for the month of June is 88F, July is 94.8 and August is 84.6 so these temperatures aren’t far out of line from what has been recorded so far. What is more important than extreme highs or lows is the number of days below freezing for the year.
We have a rather meridional jet flow these days. This means air gets pulled from the south to far northern latitudes and then dips down again. The central US is seeing a record cool August in many places. They have had two straight days of southerly winds so far at Kugluktuk. So far I’m not seeing anything spectacularly unusual.
@ur momisugly kadaka (KD Knoebel
Face reality, almost all of the Arctic south of 80 is currently much warmer than usual and it is forecast to remain that way for the next few days.
Oh, and forecasts are for temperatures there to be back down in the 60’s by the weekend.
@ur momisugly crosspatch
You seem to be missing the point. I have posted all these links to show that despite the small decrease in temperatures north of 80, the rest of the Arctic is much warmer than normal and it is forecast to remain that way for several more days
By the way, Kugluktuk once saw a temperature of 81 degrees in December (December 19, 1999) compared to a record December low of -48 (December 12, 1977).
My guess is that they must get a Chinook condition when the wind is blowing just right and get significant adiabatic warming.
I’m certain that’s a sign of runaway Global Warming, and it means we are doomed, doomed, DOOMED!