The daily mean temp 80 -90 degrees North has remained below climatological normal for more than 120 days, and has now dropped below freezing
Normally, we don’t see this sort of drop until early to mid September. I’m surprised to see this sharp drop today:
See this magnified view:
Bear in mind that this is weather, and that the average temperature for the area could easily go above freezing again. That said, it has been an unusual year for temperature in the Arctic. The closest year to what we have seen so far in 2013 appears to be 2010, which had an early drop below freezing. The high Arctic in year 2013 though, has never gotten above climatological normal, and that’s unusual.
I have created an animation for all years from 1958-2013, with a 1 second interval between frames and a 4 second pause on 2013:
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/
WUWT reader Steve Oak writes:
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For some inexplicable reason I follow the Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North. This started a few years ago when I was looking for information relating to the global temperature that was unadulterated so that I may form my own opinion as to the veracity of global warming claims and found this data set . While not “unadulterated” this looks to be fairly legitimate. I welcome further analysis.
The Danish Meteorological Institute, Center for Ocean and Ice produces a chart plotting the daily mean temp as a function of the day of the year against the average of daily mean temp as a function of the day of the year for the period form 1958 to 2002.
For the last 120 days or so the daily mean has remained below the 1958 to 2002 average. It has also now dropped below freezing.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
While it cannot be assured that the daily mean will remain below freezing, the trend to this point and that there are so few remaining days before the average drops below freezing gives credence to that possibility.
Here is an explanation of the data set from the DMI, COI.
Calculation of the Arctic Mean Temperature
The daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to 2010 T799 data are used and from 2010 to present the T1279 model data are used.
The ERA40 reanalysis data, has been applied to calculation of daily climate values that are plotted along with the daily analysis values in all plots. The data used to determine climate values is the full ERA40 data set, from 1958 to 2002.
More information can be found at:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf.
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Whether or not this early temperature drop translates into an early increased Arctic ice extent or melting remains highly uncertain, as there is a polar storm weather event in progress that may break up sea ice as happened last year: NASA on Arctic sea ice record low – storm ‘wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover’
See this current animation of dewpoint temperature from Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell. It shows moisture bands from the polar low rotating around the north pole.
(NOTE: you may have to click the image below to get it to animate on some browsers)
Keep up to date on the WUWT Sea Ice Page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
@James Baldwin At 48
The ECMWF 09Aug 0Z still had a <985hPa storm with a tight pressure gradient
http://i.imgur.com/P3VaANv.png
The latest ECMWF 09Aug 12Z shows the storm re-intensifies Sunday with SLP at the center at 980 mb, and Monday at 985 mb.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013080912/ECH1-48.GIF?09-0
There will still be significant positive temperature anomalies over the Beaufort, CAA and ESS on Monday
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013080912/ECH100-72.GIF?09-0
Things are becoming very interesting in the Arctic
In reply to:
LexingtonGreen says:
August 9, 2013 at 1:38 pm
Interesting comment on the ice situation from some folks attempting to sale this year. Worst Ice in 89 years. Causing some problems for folks:
http://northwestpassage2013.blogspot.com/2013/08/dodos-delight-worst-ice-in-89-years.html
William:
Interesting comments at the blog you provide a link to. If the planet is truly cooling there will be a steady stream of interesting observations for discussion. It is unusual that a major scientific issue(s) will be settled in real time based on observations.
It is difficult to imagine how the warmists, the media, the scientific community, and the public would react to significant cooling of the Arctic, Greenland Ice Sheet, and so on (basically reversal of the warming that has occurred over the last 150 years).
The warmists have left themselves no way out after announcing the science is settled and demanding that trillions of dollars must be spent on green scams to avoid catastrophic warming. After 20 years of fighting the climate war using 24/7 propaganda, it will be quite difficult for the warmists to admit the extreme AGW hypothesis was completely incorrect and the majority of the warming in the last 50 years and 150 years was due to solar magnetic cycle changes.
http://northwestpassage2013.blogspot.ca/2013/08/dodos-delight-worst-ice-in-89-years.html
“Yesterday PM was the first time I realised that actually this expedition may be halted by the ice… I really didn’t think that after 89 years the ice would be the worst in all that time (allegedly), but early this morning I was looking at the ice chart and it really is impassable for a stretch of 350-400 miles.
The normal navigable passage season is in August and September, and as we are basically treading water every day that passes makes success less likely – at least in 2013. Whilst the past two decades have seen the ice melt increase in longevity year on year, 2013 had been to date a reversion of the trend. Many are talking about it being a “bad ice year”.
We are in communication with a couple of other boats attempting the passage both from our side (the West) and from the Atlantic. All are concerned. At present the ice is between 5 & 7/10ths from Barrow East for a distance of approx. 350 miles – impassable by most yachts, including Dodo’s Delight.”
The video is interesting. As with all low pressure systems they tend to draw air into them. Since this is close to the pole it is not surprising that warmer air will be brought further north in areas where the southerly winds are the strongest. It will be interesting to see if this affects the DMI data over the next few days. The rising warm air will quickly lose energy to space. I think Master of Space and Thyme’s observations support this picture.
Overall we have had more circumpolar flows this summer. I think that is why the DMI numbers are so low and why the ice has not been flushed out as it has in recent years. The cold air and ice are bottled up. This current storm will bring in warmer air but will also keep the ice from flowing outward. I think the latter is the most important factor. This is somewhat like a big refrigerator pumping out warm air. And, after the storm ends and all the warmer air has been radiated to space, a strong cooling could begin. There will be less warm air to compensate for the general cooling as the sun’s power wanes.
The AO index has been trending negative since 2008 ,meaning high pressure /warm temperatures have been the rule north of 65 n ,which translates into a more expansive , weaker polar vortex. The result being warmer overall temperatures between lat. 65-90n but many cold outbreaks for the middle latitudes.
Low pressure (500mb for a level of sorts ) equates to cold arctic conditions, a positive ao /strong polar vortex.
High pressure (500mb for a level) equates to warm arctic conditions, a neg ao/ weak polar vortex.
A negative polar vortex is what is needed to cause overall N.H. cooling which should continue to be the case going forward due to the prolonged solar minimum which started around year 2005.
Reblogged this on Newington Life and commented:
Weather/Climate details anyone?
Just checked the weather forecast for Alert Canada, and it looks like after Monday the hi temps will be below freezing. With the sun angle angle of 23 degrees at solar noon right now, it’s possible Alert may be staying below freezing for a while.
And yes, this is weather 😉
Since the freezing temperature of salt water is something like -1.8 C, did anyone here consider the possibility that the ice above 80N is so shattered and there is so much open water that the air temperature in summer drops ?
And that thus the DMI summer air temperature now and in during the past decade has more to do with how much more open water there is above 80N in summer than anything else ?