Readers surely recall the wild claim yesterday made by researchers from Princeton University and the University of California-Berkeley who reported in the journal Science that even slight spikes in temperature and precipitation have greatly increased the risk of personal violence and social upheaval throughout human history:
Claim: 2°C temperature increase will make people angry
Dr. Indur Goklany writes:
Regarding climate change and violence, here are a couple of slides you should link to on WUWT. Apparently, during the “hottest decades” as some claim the 1990s and 2000s have been, U.S. homicide rates dropped!
Figs. 1 and 2: Source: Claude Fischer, A Crime Puzzle, http://thepublicintellectual.org/2011/05/02/a-crime-puzzle/, May 2, 2011
Fig. 3: Indicators of homicides per 100,000 population in England, thirteenth to twentieth centuries. Note: Each dot represents the estimated homicide rate for a city or county for periods ranging from several years to several decades. Source: Michael Eisner, Long Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime based on Gurr (1981)
It seems that real world data doesn’t support the conjectures from the hallowed halls of academia.
Related articles
- Scientists say global violence could rise with global warming (upi.com)
- Hot and bothered: Climate warming predicted to increase violent conflicts | @BobOHara & @GrrlScientist (theguardian.com)
- Climate change linked to violent behaviour (talesfromthelou.wordpress.com)
- Youth homicide rate hits lowest mark in 30 years (onlineathens.com)
- Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak (ritholtz.com)
- Gun Homicide rates are actually down, not up (buyashotgun.wordpress.com)
Chad, Chicago’s weather is similar to Prague, CZ.
Janice, To further buttress your point, Chicago had one of the most stringent handgun laws in the US until 2010, when it was struck down by SCOTUS. Nevertheless, while violent crime in Chicago has been trending down generally since the early 1990’s, the spike of recent years also tracks well with the reductions in force of the CPD. Not to mention, Chicago handgun laws are still in limbo somewhat.
I posted a link on your original article to the FBI data on this, too. Not just murders, but all violent crimes have generally lessened. I have also posted this to comment boxes in various news sites that shared the original article. The general reception to my comments was that scientists know what they are doing and who am I to question them? You know, how could I possibly look at contradictory data and wonder why the claims of science run contrary to actual data.
David: Falkner: there is no condradiction. You are talking about crime declining over many years. But the correlation between crime and temperature is observed as a daily variation.
http://www.geog.ubc.ca/courses/geob370/students/class07/crime_weather/misc/weather_and_crime.pdf
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3415828/
@Txomin says: August 2, 2013 at 8:06 pm
I’m afraid the actual data doesn’t bear you out. From a post I did some time ago on a different article:
If you or others are really interested in this issue, try this Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy research paper “Would Banning Firearms Reduce Murder and Suicide; A Review of International and Some Domestic Evidence http://tinyurl.com/cu9gcvj They cover the issue others here have asked about also – how do some of these countries which ban firearm ownership compare to those nations that allow it. What is the basic conclusions on all of these issues? That there is a negative correlation; e.g, where firearms are MOST dense, violent crime rates are LOWEST. Where firearms are LEAST dense, violent crimes are HIGHEST. This is generally true both within the USA and in other nations, including looks at how changing gun control laws has effected crime rates within the same area. I’d provide data from this article, but it’s a google doc so I don’t have a way to copy from it.
Why would that be? Just take a look at actual video, here in the USA very recently, from 3 different angles no less, of a 71 year old coot going after two 19 year old armed masked robbers. End result? The two robbers literally falling all over themselves & each other scrambling to get OUT of the establishment they were trying to rob! Bet those two never think of trying something like this again!
Video: Excellent — concealed-carrier stops an armed robbery
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/07/17/video-excellent-concealed-carrier-stops-an-armed-robbery/
or try this one, 65 year old woman, store owner, foils armed robbery by 5 masked men:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183598/Continental-Jewelry-The-moment-woman-65-thwarts-robbery-store-opening-armed-men.html
and: Armed Citizens: Calling 911 Doesn’t Always Work – woman saves herself from intruder, police can’t get there quickly enough http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkS8mdbml0A&NR=1
Back on the statistics issue… another article with some good information is, “Bringing a Gun to a Knife Fight – A Discussion on Gun Violence, Homicide, and Statistics” excerpts below: http://tinyurl.com/ctp3dhu
…Before we look at statistics, let us first establish that people kill other people whether they live in a developed country or not. The worldwide homicide rate per 100,000 people is 6.9 as of 2010, ranging from 87 per 100,000 people in Honduras to 0.34 in Japan. In the US, the rate is 4.8, which does not even rank in the top 30.**
The US does have more guns per capita than any other country, however; 88 guns per 100 people…But if, as Bloomberg suggests, the number of guns within a population is commensurate to gun violence, the US should not only have more murders overall but a higher firearm homicide rate than most any other nation.
According to the UN Office of Drugs and Crime, the US is ranked seventh, at 2.97 firearm homicides per 100,000, far below Colombia (51.77) and Guatemala (18.5). It appears that people are, in fact, killing other people with guns, and at a far higher rate than in the US.
…this still doesn’t explain, if firearms mean more murders, why the murder rate in the US is fairly low overall.
…The Swiss, known for their affinity for firearms, are fourth in gun ownership, 45.7 per 100, yet their homicide rate is less than one per 100,000. The Yemenis own 54.8 guns per 100 people and have a homicide rate of 4 per 100,000. Serbians own 58.2 guns per 100 people and have virtually the same murder rate (2.2) as the Cypriots (2.0) and the latter own far less guns (36.4 per 100 people). High gun ownership might mean a higher murder rate, but then again it might not.
Further, let’s look at Estonia. In that country, a mere 15% of homicides are committed using firearms, but the overall homicide rate is 10.45 per 100,000. Estonia’s non-firearm homicide rate, 8.92, is almost double the total rate in the US. And get this: Estonia’s citizens are not legally allowed to own guns. So instead of using firearms to kill people, they’ve gone about it the old fashioned way.
In fact, of the top 15 highest nations as ranked by overall homicide rate, more than a third of them, six, forbid their citizens from legally owning of firearms. In some of these countries, the firearm homicide rate is lower than the non-firearm homicide rate, and in others it is not. In a phrase, if there’s a will there’s a way.
Gun ownership and prevalence is not necessarily a predictor of gun-related homicide. Without a doubt, guns are used in the commission of homicides, both in the US and worldwide, and regardless of whether they are legal to own or highly restricted. But by far, the leading cause of murder, now as throughout history, is being simply killed by another person. Maybe that’s the real issue here….
Quote I remember from a veteran copper:
“Bad weather is the best policeman.”
It there is any nugget of truth in this report, it would be that changes in temperature nudge people towards violence. This is a SHORT-TERM effect, and is thus caused (if it exists) by changes in weather, not changes in climate.
If, in future, the climate is warmer, people will have adapted to the warmer climate; nevertheless people may in future continue to be affected by short-term weather changes.
And this is published in “Science”? Very sloppy thinking.
Janice Moore says:
August 2, 2013 at 8:33 pm
—————-
Thanks for the encouragement.
In the wild wild west days of the 17 and 18 hundreds, murder using a gun was very infrequent.
Wow, does this mean Detroit has a higher average temperature then the rest of the Midwest?
Rational Db8 says:
August 2, 2013 at 7:55 pm
It’s published in Science, I have a subscription. The study, as usual, is much more restrained than the press release. The study actually says nothing about climate per se, just about the effects of weather calamities that they mistakenly describe as “climate”. I know that you will all be shocked to find out that when the weather goes bad, violence goes up.
And I’m sure it will also surprise everyone to find out that more people go rampaging down the street on a hot summer afternoon than on a cold winter night.
That’s what the study said. It said that when the weather gets bad, and particularly when it gets bad enough to have economic consequences, violence goes up … duh.
Move along, folks. nothing to see here.
w.
Re: David Falkner at 8:52PM, here is that excellent link from your 8:05PM post of yesterday (for convenience)
— thanks, Mr. Falkner:
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/preliminary-annual-uniform-crime-report-january-december-2012/tables/table_3_percent_change_for_consecutive_years_2012.xls
Mr. Selkov (at 9:02PM), I should just let Mr. Falkner defend himself, but, re: your statement: “You are talking about crime declining over many years. … .”
The pro-CAGWers in the article from yesterday were talking about temperatures that their bogus models project will warm significantly over several years.
Perhaps we should all turn our thermostats down a couple of degrees, and save on policing.
/sarc
In the USA we have a tradition that demonstrates the purpose of gun ownership, if for nothing else;
The Battle of Athens: Restoring the Rule of Law
P.S. To: Mr. Selkov — … [over several years] and about temperatures from 2000-2012 which, while NOT warming, are, overall, warmer than previous decades. Anyway, the key to my poorly written point is that the article’s authors (Hsiang, et. al.) and not Mr. Falkner introduced the “several years” factor.
If one were serious it would be better to compare crime by latitude, and attempt to correct for demographics, drug cultivation…hooboy. Anyway Willis, I’m not so sure raging down the street from cabin fever and starvation in the cold is any less prevalent than from drought and starvation in the hot.
I once read that in New York violence increases between 80 and 90f because people are more irritated, however over 90f violence reduces because it is just too damn hot
I copied and pasted the wrong link it looks like.
And yes, it was my point that from the period of time that scientists seriously considered whether we were facing a new ice age until now, crime rates have dropped. If I can find it in the middle of the night after a few drinks, you can too. It was not my idea to look at it over a longer period of time.
If you want to say that daily variations make a difference, fine. But then if we observe hotter dailies “on average” then we should observe more crime daily “on average” unless you are introducing some X factor.
*** ALSO, it was not my idea to look at it over a (delete longer) period of time.
but then again ….http://www.partyviberadio.com/forums/attachments/spirituality-morality-religion/3946d1248317546-church-flying-spaghetti-monster-pirates.png
Chris B –
turning down the thermostats might save u from more than increased violence:
1 Aug: Tampa Bay Times, Florida: Robert Trigaux: Thank you, Tallahassee, for making us pay so much for nothing
Hey, elected clowns! Thanks for passing a law forcing Duke Energy customers to pay up to $1.5 billion in higher rates for a long proposed nuclear power plant in Levy County that will not be built.
And no, Florida customers, you’re not getting any of that money back.
Too bad we can’t shut down Florida legislators just as easily. Especially those lawmakers who conjured up the 2006 law letting power companies charge advance fees to rate payers for high-priced and, yes, even ill-considered nuclear power projects.
Anti-capitalist from the get-go, the law also allows the same power companies to profit even when projects aren’t built. Like the Levy debacle…
Repeatedly postponed, the Levy plant’s expected costs skyrocketed to nearly $25 billion in the last seven years. That’s the most expensive nuclear plant project in the country’s history…
But America’s largest electric company might soon ask Tallahassee for another favor.
New Duke CEO Lynn Good says she wants to change the rules in Florida so that any type of big power plant can be charged in advance to its customers…
http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/energy/thank-you-tallahassee-for-making-us-pay-so-much-for-nothing/2134390
Here is what some part time professor at University of Ottawa is tweetting about the recent cold wave in South America and its consequences:
“Paul Beckwith
Frost damages 20% of Brazil’s sugar crop. A positive from #climatechange+higher food prices; lower #obesity levels. http://t.co/TCoeeJ6vtS”
A POSITIVE? Really sick!
I was under the impression that Princeton and Berkerley were the cream of US education.
All I can conclude that these jokers are laughing all the way to the bank!
You’re welcome, Mr. Wise Guy. Thanks for the inspiringly moving video with a powerful point. How refreshing to watch one of the times that good triumphed over evil. Certainly, it will not win every battle, but TRUTH WILL WIN the war.
I had a German friend about 10 years ago who was lecturing me on America’s “cowboy mentality” (v. a v. right to bear arms of private citizens). When I quietly reminded her that Germans, too, once had the right to bear arms…. she got very quiet. I don’t think most of the libs who promote “gun control” realize it, but they are running a play right out of old H-t-l-r’s playbook. And, of course, there are many of them who are very aware of the consequences of taking guns out of the hands of the law abiding and they intend those results with steely-eyed zeal.
Take into account the economic demise of our country and be thankful crime is not worse. Just prepare.
@ur momisugly Willis Eschenbach says: August 2, 2013 at 9:06 pm
Thanks for the info and reply, Willis.
@ur momisugly kelly says: August 2, 2013 at 9:38 pm
LOVE Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, and it’s certainly apropos in this case.
@ur momisugly Chris B says: August 2, 2013 at 9:15 pm & a few other folks in this thread:
Thanks for the good chuckles!
According to this http://humanorigins.si.edu/research/climate-research/effects man evolved because of climate change. Perhaps the warmists are fed up of walking upright and on the ground and want to get back into the trees again. Ooh!, ooh1!