People send me stuff. This is an email solicitation claiming that if you send Avaaz £2 a week (About $3.07 USD at current exchange rate) they’ll somehow be able to help NSIDC’s Julienne Stroeve get started putting back that Arctic ice, much like as a previous subscriber, you may have given money to help dolphins from being sad (see below). There’s only 30 months left apparently, and salesmen operators are standing by to take your urgent call.
I wonder how much money Ms. Stroeve gets for endorsing this alarmist sales pitch, or maybe her name is being used to raise funds without her knowledge/permission? Inquiring minds want to know. What is most curious is that they don’t actually reference Stroeve’s papers or any NSIDC publications, only alarmist news stories.
Of course one only has to look at the WUWT Sea Ice page to note that sea ice disappears every summer, and comes back in the fall and winter. So, with summer just started, now is the perfect time to claim “vast areas of sea ice have disappeared” so as to snag money from the seasonally challenged. According to NASA and AP’s Seth Borenstein: “…after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” Well, that didn’t happen, so 2013 MUST be the year. No, wait, its 2015 now. Give while there’s still time!
I loved this line from the solicitation: Fatalism on climate change is not just futile, it’s also incompetent.
Dear Avaaz community,
This may be the most important email I’ve written to you. Scientists have found that vast areas of Arctic sea ice are disappearing, accelerating the destruction of our planet — it is a climate tipping point and we CAN stop it, if we act very fast, and all together. We have 30 months until the biggest climate summit ever. To win it, we need to blast out of the starting gate. Click below to pledge a donation of £2 to help us get there:
This may be the most important email I’ve ever written to you.
Scientist Julienne Stroeve has studied Arctic ice for decades. Every summer she travels north to measure how much ice has melted. She knows that climate change is melting the ice fast, but on her last trip, she couldn’t believe what she saw. Vast areas of Arctic ice have disappeared, beyond our worst expectations.
This is what the experts warned us about. As the earth warms, it creates many “tipping points” that accelerate the warming out of control. Warming thaws the Arctic sea ice, destroying the giant white ‘mirror’ that reflects heat back into space, which massively heats up the ocean, and melts more ice, and so on. We spin out of control. Already this year — storms, temperatures — everything is off the charts.
We CAN stop this, if we act very fast, and all together. And out of this extinction nightmare, we can pull one of the most inspiring futures for our children and grandchildren. A clean, green future in balance with the earth that gave birth to us.
We have 30 months until the Paris Summit, the meeting that world leaders have decided will determine the fate of our efforts to fight climate change. It might seem like a long time – it’s not. We have 30 months to get the right leaders in power, get them to that meeting, give them a plan, and hold them accountable. And it’s us vs. the oil companies, and fatalism. We can win, we must, but we need to blast out of the starting gate with pledges of just £2 per week until the summit — we’ll only process the donations if we hit our goal. For the world we dream of, let’s make it happen:
[donation link redacted]
Fatalism on climate change is not just futile, it’s also incompetent. The hour is late, but it is still absolutely within our power to stop this catastrophe, simply by shifting our economies from oil and coal to other sources of power. And doing so will bring the world together like never before, in a deep commitment and cooperation to protect our planetary home. It’s a beautiful possibility, and the kind of future Avaaz was born to create.
Facing this challenge will take heart, and hope, and also all the smarts we have. Here’s the plan:
1. Go Political: Elect Climate Leaders — 5 crucial countries have elections in the next 30 months. Let’s make sure the right people win, and with the right mandate. Avaaz is one of the only major global advocacy organizations that can be political. And since this fight will be won or lost politically, it could be at some points just us vs. the oil companies to decide who our politicians listen to.
2. Make Hollande a Hero — French President Francois Hollande will chair the Paris summit – a powerful position. We have to try every tactic and channel — his personal friends and family, his political constituency, his policy advisors — to make him the hero we need him to be to make the summit a success.
3. Take it to the Next Level — The scale of this crisis demands action that goes beyond regular campaigning. It’s time for powerful, direct, non-violent action, to capture imagination, convey moral urgency, and inspire people to act. Think Occupy.
4. Out the Spoilers — Billionaires like the Koch brothers and their oil companies are the major spoilers in climate change – funding junk science to confuse us and spending millions on misleading PR, while buying politicians wholesale. With investigative journalism and more, we need to expose and counter their horrifically irresponsible actions.
5. Define the Deal — Even in the face of planetary catastrophe, 195 governments in a room can be just incompetent. We need to invest in top quality policy advice to develop ingenious strategies, mechanisms, and careful compromises so that when the summit arrives, a critical mass of leaders are already bought in to a large part of the deal, and no one can claim that good solutions don’t exist.
We need tens of thousands of us to pledge small donations to blast out of the starting gate on this plan. The amount doesn’t matter as much as much as the choice – to hope, and to act:
[donation link redacted]
At the last major climate summit in Copenhagen 2009, we played a pivotal role in German and Japanese ‘climate’ elections, in shifting Brazilian policy, and in helping win a major global deal on financing, with rich countries promising $100 billion per year to poor countries to help them address climate change. Back then, Avaaz was 3 million people. After Copenhagen, we reflected that we needed to be a lot bigger to meet the challenge posed by climate change. Now, we’re 23 million, and growing by 1 million per month.
Climate change is the ultimate global collective action problem, requiring cooperation from every government in the world. And Avaaz is the ultimate collective action solution, with millions of us united in common vision across every nation. This is our time, to build a world for our children that’s beauty matches our dreams. Let’s get started.
With hope and appreciation for this amazing community,
Ricken and the entire Avaaz team
MORE INFORMATION:
With Arctic sea ice vulnerable, summer melt season begins briskly (The Christian Science Monitor)
Arctic sea ice levels to reach record low within days (Guardian)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/aug/23/arctic-sea-ice-record-low
Five Reasons We Need a New Global Agreement on Climate Change by 2015 (Switchboard NRDC)
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/jschmidt/five_reasons_we_need_a_new_glo.html
The Doha climate talks were a start, but 2015 will be the moment of truth (The Guardian)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/10/doha-climate-talks-global-warming
Arctic sea ice melt disrupts weather patterns (NBC News)
The Arctic Ice “Death Spiral” (Slate)
Avaaz.org is a 22-million-person global campaign network that works to ensure that the views and values of the world’s people shape global decision-making. (“Avaaz” means “voice” or “song” in many languages.) Avaaz members live in every nation of the world; our team is spread across 18 countries on 6 continents and operates in 17 languages. Learn about some of Avaaz’s biggest campaigns here, or follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
You are getting this message because you signed “Save the Saddest Dolphins ” on 2011-xx-xx using the email address xxxxx@xxxx.com
h/t to reader “JP”
===========================================================
Now here’s the real kicker, Dr. Stroeve doesn’t think sea ice will disappear this summer. See her official forecast in the ARCUS June 2013 Sea Ice Outlook:
Of course, NSIDC may not care that Stroeve’s name is being used to raise money, after all, she has a current history of activism while employed there. Your tax dollars at work? This photo was taken on 09/11/2012:
Source: Greenpeace
“2. Make Hollande a Hero ”
Well maybe first put the ice back together – that sounds more feasible.
Ryan says:
June 24, 2013 at 8:11 am
“/The Arctic started losing ice when the AMO went into its warm phase. It should start regaining ice when the AMO cools./
Do people here really believe this? That the Arctic is just going to shoot back up to normal sea ice during this century?”
Sounds more plausible than the IPCC computer models.
Ryan, why is Antarctic sea ice area growing? You’re a warmist, you know the future. You must know.
Ryan says:
June 24, 2013 at 8:14 am
“/As one warms, the other cools, which is NOT the signature of AGW. It is the signature of the “polar see-saw”. A natural event that predates industrialization./
Yea, no…
Even on this page you guys have been told what is driving the slight trend in Antarctic Winter sea ice. It ain’t cooling…”
Oh let me guess. It’s warming? Have I won?
Climate science is so fun.
“As the earth warms, it creates many “tipping points” that accelerate the warming out of control. We spin out of control….. — everything is off the charts.”
Well then it’s too damn late.
Tipping points have tipped leaving us tipped over and tipped up.
So tip off, Julienne.
But have a nice day.
In reply to Ryan.
Ryan says:
June 24, 2013 at 8:14 am
/As one warms, the other cools, which is NOT the signature of AGW. It is the signature of the “polar see-saw”. A natural event that predates industrialization./
Yea, no…
Even on this page you guys have been told what is driving the slight trend in Antarctic Winter sea ice. It ain’t cooling…
William:
Yes the planet will cool. There is observational evidence the cooling has started. There is now record sea ice in the Antarctic for all months of the year, which indicates there is now cooling in the region around the Antarctic ice sheet. There is now observed cooling in the Arctic and on the Greenland ice sheet.
The following are more details concerning the polar see-saw. It should be noted that the polar see-saw is Arctic/Green land ice sheet Vs Antarctic ice sheet, not the Antarctic region sea ice. The Antarctic ice sheet cooled in the last 70 years while the Southern oceans warmed slightly.
The albedo of the Antarctic ice sheet (very high speed winds on the ice sheet break down snow crystals) is greater than low level clouds so when there is a reduction in low level cloud cover over the Antarctic ice sheet there is slight cooling. The albedo is lower for the Arctic and Greenland Ice sheet and those regions of the planet are affected more by temperature changes of the surrounding water (the Antarctic ice sheet is isolated by a very, very strong polar vortex) and hence warm when there is a reduction in low level cloud cover.
The warming in the last 70 years, the latitudes where the warming occurred and the amount of warming that occurred can almost all be explained by a change in planetary cloud cover, rather than by an increase in atmospheric CO2. As noted below solar magnetic activity was the highest in 8000 years during the last 70 years and the duration of high solar activity was the highest in 11,000 years in the last 70 years.
2013
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Antarctic Sea Ice, 2013 compared to 2012 and compared to 1979 to 2008 mean
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
The current interglacial period – the Holocene – has experienced nine cyclic warming periods which were all followed by cooling periods.
Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
http://www.climate4you.com/
The last warming period the Medieval Warm period was followed by the Little Ice Age. The Little Ice Age correlated in time with a deep solar magnetic minimum that is called the Maunder minimum.
The cyclic warming and cooling periods in the past, were not caused by changes to atmospheric CO2. The regions that warmed and cooled cyclically are the same region that warmed in the last 70 years.
These cyclic warming and cooling periods all correlate with solar magnetic cycle changes. When the sun is very active different mechanisms reduce the amount of ions in the atmosphere which in turn reduces the amount of cloud cover. Less cloud cover, less sunlight reflected off into space, warmer planet. Following each warm period the sun goes into a deep minimum for 50 to 100 years which is then followed by weak magnetic cycles. The planet hence cools and remains cold for 75 to 100 years.
The solar magnetic cycle has abruptly slowed down. Solar cycle 24 will be the weakest solar cycle in 150 years. Solar cycle 25 is predicted to be a Maunder minimum like solar cycle (no sunspots).
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png
Attached is a link to the Danish (Svensmark) scientist’s paper that explains the polar see-saw.
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0612145v1
“The Antarctic climate anomaly and galactic cosmic rays
Borehole temperatures in the ice sheets spanning the past 6000 years show Antarctica repeatedly warming when Greenland cooled, and vice versa (Fig. 1) [13, 14]. North-south oscillations of greater amplitude associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger events are evident in oxygenisotope data from the Wurm-Wisconsin glaciation[15]. The phenomenon has been called the polar see-saw[15, 16], but that implies a north-south symmetry that is absent. Greenland is better coupled to global temperatures than Antarctica is, and the fulcrum of the temperature swings is near the Antarctic Circle. A more apt term for the effect is the Antarctic climate anomaly. … ….Figure (2a) also shows that the polar warming effect of clouds is not symmetrical, being most pronounced beyond 75◦S. In the Arctic it does no more than offset the cooling effect, despite the fact that the Arctic is much cloudier than the Antarctic (Fig. (2b)). The main reason for the difference seems to be the exceptionally high albedo of Antarctica in the absence of clouds…”
The latitudinal pattern of warming in the last 70 years does not match the predicted pattern if the warming was due to the increase in atmospheric CO2.
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0809/0809.0581.pdf
“Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth
If the climate forcing were only from CO2 one would expect from property #2 a small variation with latitude. However, it is noted that NoExtropics is 2 times that of the global and 4 times that of the Tropics. Thus one concludes that the climate forcing in the NoExtropics includes more than CO2 forcing. These non-CO2 effects include: land use [Peilke et al. 2007]; industrialization [McKitrick and Michaels 2007), Kalnay and Cai (2003), DeLaat and Maurellis (2006)]; high natural variability, and daily nocturnal effects [Walters et al. (2007)].”
http://arxiv.org/abs/1112.3256
http://www.utdallas.edu/physics/pdf/Atmos_060302.pdf
Atmospheric Ionization and Clouds as Links Between Solar Activity and Climate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
Little Ice Age
….Crop practices throughout Europe had to be altered to adapt to the shortened, less reliable growing season, and there were many years of dearth and famine (such as the Great Famine of 1315–1317, although this may have been before the LIA proper).[25] According to Elizabeth Ewan and Janay Nugent, “Famines in France 1693–94, Norway 1695–96 and Sweden 1696–97 claimed roughly 10% of the population of each country. In Estonia and Finland in 1696–97, losses have been estimated at a fifth and a third of the national populations, respectively.”[26] Viticulture disappeared from some northern regions. Violent storms caused serious flooding and loss of life. Some of these resulted in permanent loss of large areas of land from the Danish, German and Dutch coasts.[24] … ….Historian Wolfgang Behringer has linked intensive witch-hunting episodes in Europe to agricultural failures during the Little Ice Age.[36]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jun/13/met-office-uk-bad-weather-cause
“….recent changes to weather patterns, not just in the UK but across the rest of Europe. This week, the National Farmers Union said that 30% less wheat than normal was being grown in the UK this year due to the recent weather. In addition to this year’s cold spring, 2012 was the second wettest year in England since 1910, according to the Met Office.
A Met Office spokesman said: “We have seen a run of unusual seasons in the UK and northern Europe, such as the cold winter of 2010, last year’s wet weather and the cold spring this year. This may be nothing more than a run of natural variability, but there may be other factors impacting our weather there is emerging research which suggests there is a link between declining Arctic sea ice and European climate – but exactly how this process might work and how important it may be among a host of other factors remains unclear.”
http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf
Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years
http://cio.eldoc.ub.rug.nl/FILES/root/1999/QuatSciRevvGeel/1999QuatSciRevvGeel.pdf
“The role of solar forcing upon climate change”
https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/74103.pdf
The Sun-Climate Connection by John A. Eddy, National Solar Observatory
“Make Hollande a Hero” HAR! Even the French hate him already!!!
but I don’t know why they want to make people wait 30 months for cooling results – if people will send ME money, I GUARANTEE that Minnesota and Wisconsin will be covered with snow and ice within 6 months or your money back!!!
I promise that for every $100 they raise, I will blow off at least one bottle of SF6, perfluorocarbon tracer, or freon in order to save the world (or at least help measure it properly) from the coming Ice Age.
I’d check where they ‘invest’ it while holding onto it.
From: http://www.greenpeace.org/czech/cz/news/tajici-Arktida-ocima-vedcu/
September 25, 2012
Q: What is the long-term picture?
Julienne Stroeve: “If we continue to warm the atmosphere, ”
Comment: Didn’t I just read where UAH and RSS troposphereic temp measurements show little or no warming? Would that nullify your ‘given’, assumed condition (your supposition)?
Julienne (continuing): ” the Arctic may be ice-free in summer 2030th While natural climate change may increase the level of ice temporarily for a few years, the long-term downward trend. This year is exceptional – we are at the end of current climate models. We have observed is that the decrease of the ice level is significantly faster than projected in most IPCC models.”
Therefore that which followed (that which appears directly above) is inapplicable since the qualifying condition didn’t occur? Would that be roughly correct?
Hmmm … BTW, how are the IPCC ‘models’ for arctic ice looking compared to ‘actual’? Anything like their surface temp measurement projections (which are/have missed the mark)?
.
If it is now the norm to measure climate stimuli in Hiroshima Equivalent units then appeals such as this should be measured in hyperbole units. This one has the highest hu in recorded history, beating out Chicken Little and the boy who cried wolf.
If they want to do something for the children of tomorrows to come they should turn a skeptical eye toward the greatest threat to all next generations – planned parenthood. But there’s no money in solving problems – theirs is a cycle of #1:gathering grant money; faux studies of auto-created threats to the world; regurgitate nonsense that has no hope of implementation; loop #1.
She should be taken to task for fraud.
Enough £2’s and I can do it 😉
I have a scientifically proven method of increasing the arctic ice extent. It will take about 4 months but we have to start now and it won’t be cheap. I estimate I will need about $10,000 to do it; I might be able to offer a discount to $49.95. But the point is, we have to act now, before Wednesday. If I receive this amount in any denomination in the next few hours we can get right to work.
Will Nelson says:
June 24, 2013 at 10:16 am
I have a scientifically proven method of increasing the arctic ice extent. It will take about 4 months
===========
ROTFL
Another tax exempt (501-C3) NGO.
Interesting facts about Azaaz from:
http://www.faqs.org/tax-exempt/NY/Avaaz-Foundation.html
Amount of income in 2010: $6,664,634
Other organizations performing similar types of work: $67,275
Assets in 2010: $2,029,995
Other organizations performing similar types of work: $40,175″
Pretty deep pockets, and they pay not taxes on an income of > $6.6 million
Nice offices in the upper east side of Manhattan
Ryan says:
June 24, 2013 at 6:35 am
/Ryan – even assuming that the models were meaningful, what do you think contributing to these people will actually do to change that? So they manage to elect the ‘RIGHT’ people. Then what?/
Not sure about this particular donation, but I bet it will do more good than wandering around the net suggesting that winter ice disproves a melting arctic or suggesting that a lack of year over year records somehow eliminates the need for alarm.
—————————————————
My questions to Ryan are “What are you afraid of?”
“What great harm do you see in your future?”
and “Are you aware climate changes all the time, naturally. (Look up “Dust Bowl”)
It’s government’s and NGOs’ M.O. to scare us so we’ll all cave in and let them do what ever they want. I don’t believe them or even trust them because they make such bad decisions.
Is the globe warming?
How would I know that?
Will warming be bad?
I don’t know for sure but warm is usually good. I live in Florida.
Should we stop using fossil fuels, give up the freedom and prosperity they provide?
Should we withhold the health, nutrition, personal safety, longevity, etc from emerging nations?
What would you recommend we replace fossil fuels with? Windmills and solar panels?
If government wants to tax fossil fuels more than they currently do then let congress raise the tax at the pump. Show the people how much tax they are paying by including it along with all the other taxes. They won’t because it’s not a good idea to reduce CO2 by destroying prosperity.
They don’t need a new tax. Yet another tax with no ending date or termination criteria and no requirements on how to increase and distribute the new “general revenue”?
They just want a new tax and you want to give it to them.
My real question to you is “Are you crazy?”
cn
So Ryan, have you taken the pledge to donate weekly to Avaaz?
I believe Ms. Stroeve has responded in the past to ice-related posts here at WUWT. Perhaps she can respond to this one. I would like to know if she knew that her work and interview would be used for questionable fund raising like this? What say you, Ms. Stroeve??
PS
This year’s arctic ice extent looks pretty healthy for late June…
PSS
Could someone find out how much the principal directors of AVAAZ.org are making in salary? Usually, these “non-profit” organizations make sure their staffs are VERY well compensated…
I often wonder what would have happened if the Kyoto Protocol was universally ratified. How would the Climatestrogists be behaving in that scenario?
I suspect they would cite that seventeen years of no warming as proof they had saved the planet, and they would be busy “homogenizing” recent temp data downward rather than upward. Of course (as always) more would need to be done.
You’d think people wanting to save the earth would at least be asked to donate their personal weight in money… Two pounds is less than what the normal person eats per day.
Sounds more like a scam than anything else.
Steve from Rockwood says (June 24, 2013 at 5:37 am)
What happens if the Arctic ice extent rebounds in 2013?
It would be denied, obviously.
🙂 This moderator owes me a new monitor!
“Ed Zuiderwijk says:
June 24, 2013 at 11:15 am
Steve from Rockwood says (June 24, 2013 at 5:37 am)
What happens if the Arctic ice extent rebounds in 2013?
It would be denied, obviously.”
Or previous years would suddenly be found to have MORE ice.
Ryan says:
June 24, 2013 at 6:13 am
Regardless of how you feel about their tactics, arctic sea ice is dropping much faster than models predicted. The fact that it “comes back every winter” doesn’t really change that.
First, even if this were true, you fail to delineate what this might mean that would be important enough to do something about it – if anything effective really could be done. Again, in terms of “what it all means,” normal during your life time is meaningless scientifically, geologically, geographically, oceanographically. We do not have base line data of sufficient duration to even determine some global – or even regional – “normal” in any of these domains. There is more than sufficient documentation available to show that the arctic has retained far less ice at points in the recent historic era (ca.70 years ago for instance). This persistent idea that any change from what we “experienced” in our lifetimes is “normal” times is bad is egocentric at best and narcissism at worst. The planet is not stable in any domain at any time scale. Read some historical geology and paleontology and get a clue. You’ll be able to lean back and enjoy the beverage of your choice rather than worry that the planet needs saving.
As far as the original post goes, based upon the information the organization provides on the internet, the chief activity of Avaaz is wall papering the planet with “campaigns” and “petitions.” Some might even be worthwhile. Worrying about ice in the arctic is not.
She sure looks awfully overdressed for all that warming. And is that a diesel burning ship(or maybe nuclear) smashing through all that ice? And a chopper? JP5 fuel is not exactley carbon,sulfer,methane,etc free.Think of the poor polie bears killed by this ship.(Or were the bears drinking Coke?) And just what was powering the cameras to take this sorry excuse for a photo-op?
And were they eating pine needles and tree leaves,because all the corn was being used to power the GreenSludge?
Want to see de-evolution( or not-so-intelligent design) at work? Look no further than the eco-cultists.
And we let them get away with it. Who are the real fools?
•Avaaz was co-founded in 2007 by “Res Publica, a global civic advocacy group, and Moveon.org,” a George Soros-funded organization involved in ideological and political campaigns in the US.
http://www.ngo-monitor.org/article/avaaz