By Paul Homewood
I have deliberately held off running this post for a day or two, partly because I felt it inappropriate to do so earlier, and also because I wanted to wait until the facts became clearer.
NWS have now officially declared the tornado that hit Moore, Oklahoma on Monday as an EF-5, the highest category, which is given when wind speeds are estimated to be over 200 mph. The current estimate for this tornado is 200-210 mph.
Latest estimates are that 24 people have died, although this figure may rise.
NOAA’s Environmental Visualisation Laboratory gave an ominous warning, earlier that day, of what was to come :-
May 20, 2013
Converging Air Masses Makes for a Rough Day in the Central Plains
Cold, dry air sweeping down from Canada mixing with warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean are merging in the U.S. Plains today, creating conditions for some very turbulent weather. A tornado outbreak today in the early morning hours caused destruction in Kansas and Oklahoma. This image shows the air temperature at 40,000 Pascals (about 23,000 feet high in the atmosphere) using data outputs from the NOAA North America Model for 2100z on May 20, 2013, combined with an overlay of the winds at the same elevation. Tornadoes typically occur at the convergence of these two different air masses. A distinct boundary of “cold meeting warm” is visible in this temperature data, extending from Texas into Illinois.
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1349&MediaTypeID=1
Unfortunately, EF-5 tornadoes occur only too frequently. This latest is the 59th recorded since 1950, so on average about one every year.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html
The full list is in Appendix A, but Figure 1 shows that these strongest tornadoes were more common in the colder climate of 1950-80.
Figure 1
Many tornadoes, of course, pass through relatively empty farmland, and don’t lead to the damage and loss of life that this one did. Nevertheless, there have been 27 tornadoes since 1970 that have caused more than 20 fatalities, so, on average, it is, unfortunately, the sort of tragedy we can expect to see nearly every year.
I cannot finish without saying how utterly disgusted I am by those who have chosen to make political capital out of human suffering, such as Senator Boxer. What they have done is pure evil. She and the rest should be ashamed of themselves.
APPENDIX A – F5/EF5 TORNADOES SINCE 1950
================================================= NUMBER DATE LOCATION ====== ===================== =========================== 59 May 20, 2013 Moore OK 58 May 24, 2011 El Reno/Piedmont OK 57 May 22, 2011 Joplin MO 56 April 27, 2011 Rainsville/Sylvania AL 55 April 27, 2011 Preston MS 54 April 27, 2011 Hackleburg/Phil Campbell AL 53 April 27, 2011 Smithville MS 52 May 25, 2008 Parkersburg IA 51 May 4, 2007 Greensburg KS 50 May 3, 1999 Bridge Creek/Moore OK 49 April 16, 1998 Waynesboro TN 48 April 8, 1998 Oak Grove/Pleasant Grove AL 47 May 27, 1997 Jarrell TX 46 July 18, 1996 Oakfield WI 45 June 16, 1992 Chandler MN 44 April 26, 1991 Andover KS 43 August 28, 1990 Plainfield IL 42 March 13, 1990 Goessel KS 41 March 13, 1990 Hesston KS 40 May 31, 1985 Niles OH 39 June 7, 1984 Barneveld WI 38 April 2, 1982 Broken Bow OK 37 April 4, 1977 Birmingham AL 36 June 13, 1976 Jordan IA 35 April 19, 1976 Brownwood TX 34 March 26, 1976 Spiro OK 33 April 3, 1974 Guin AL 32 April 3, 1974 Tanner AL 31 April 3, 1974 Mt. Hope AL 30 April 3, 1974 Sayler Park OH 29 April 3, 1974 Brandenburg KY 28 April 3, 1974 Xenia OH 27 April 3, 1974 Daisy Hill IN 26 May 6, 1973 Valley Mills TX 25 February 21, 1971 Delhi LA 24 May 11, 1970 Lubbock TX 23 June 13, 1968 Tracy MN 22 May 15, 1968 Maynard IA 21 May 15, 1968 Charles City IA 20 April 23, 1968 Gallipolis OH 19 October 14, 1966 Belmond IA 18 June 8, 1966 Topeka KS 17 March 3, 1966 Jackson MS 16 May 8, 1965 Gregory SD 15 May 5, 1964 Bradshaw NE 14 April 3, 1964 Wichita Falls TX 13 May 5, 1960 Prague OK 12 June 4, 1958 Menomonie WI 11 December 18, 1957 Murphysboro IL 10 June 20, 1957 Fargo ND 9 May 20, 1957 Ruskin Heights MO 8 April 3, 1956 Grand Rapids MI 7 May 25, 1955 Udall KS 6 May 25, 1955 Blackwell OK 5 December 5, 1953 Vicksburg MS 4 June 27, 1953 Adair IA 3 June 8, 1953 Flint MI 2 May 29, 1953 Ft. Rice ND 1 May 11, 1953 Waco TX ============================================================
Glad to see NW Alabama and NE Mississippi get the respect they deserve. That is tornado alley. I grew up there. Sorry I do not have time to share stories. I will say that as a child I spent a lot of time in a storm cellar.
Well, Mr. Goodwin, from your fine posts on WUWT and the warm, generous, spirit you have shown, that was clearly time well spent!
Perhaps, juvenile delinquents (or what-EVER the p.c. label for them is, now) would benefit. Meh, I think it’s too late by that time, maybe if they were actually IN a tornado… (no, I’m not hoping they will die, I say to whomever thought I meant that).
_Jim says: May 23, 2013 at 12:48 pm
u.k.(us) says May 23, 2013 at 12:25 pm Good points (way over my pay scale).
But, it is the winds that destroy things, not the vacuum ?
The *rapid* movement of air over the partially exposed surface of the dome will creates a locally lowered absolute pressure (as it always does; even the Jet stream over a lower air mass creates this ‘lowered’ area of pressure) … think: the Bernoulli (or Venturi) effect: “an increase in the speed of the fluid occurs simultaneously with a decrease in pressure”….
As the strong wind blows across the dome, the ‘pressure’ won’t have dropped inside the dome, therefore, a force differential will exist between inside and outside the dome (in the *outward* direction). Car windows get ‘sucked’ out this way, with strong, brief winds for instance.
Watch these cars get literally ‘sucked’ up, not blown, until they do get airborne. The air underneath them is what actually ‘lifts’ them (there is no real force such as ‘vacuum’, only differential of air *pressure*):
I think the pressure flipping the cars in the video is dynamic pressure from the wind getting under the car, not the static pressure difference from the Bernoulli effect of the wind over them. Even the sleekest of cars aren’t in the same league as real aerodynamic surfaces like wings and propellers. Notice the cars are being levered up, nearly always having something touching the ground, and the ones that do get airborne don’t stay up for more than an instant.
The wind does destroy things, but the ‘vacuum’ in the core going over a house or building can blow them up. Not really a vacuum, but a big F5 tornado core can be 2 or 3 psi less than ambient. That’s 6 or 7 tons of pull on a 4’x8′ sheet of plywood, a huge bunch more on a whole house. You don’t get that with hurricanes.
Janice Moore says
May 23, 2013 at 11:36 pm
Thanks for the compliments, Janice. Growing up on a working farm with a father who truly works would work wonders for children of today.
To a child, the storm events were much like campfire events and we missed school. Sometimes we toured the damage later. We were not hit by a tornado.
Sen. Boxer should be ashamed. So should those who push building codes that mandate shelters in schools and homes. People should have every right to decide to die (along with their children) without the government mandating a shelter of some sort.