By Paul Homewood
I have deliberately held off running this post for a day or two, partly because I felt it inappropriate to do so earlier, and also because I wanted to wait until the facts became clearer.
NWS have now officially declared the tornado that hit Moore, Oklahoma on Monday as an EF-5, the highest category, which is given when wind speeds are estimated to be over 200 mph. The current estimate for this tornado is 200-210 mph.
Latest estimates are that 24 people have died, although this figure may rise.
NOAA’s Environmental Visualisation Laboratory gave an ominous warning, earlier that day, of what was to come :-
May 20, 2013
Converging Air Masses Makes for a Rough Day in the Central Plains
Cold, dry air sweeping down from Canada mixing with warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean are merging in the U.S. Plains today, creating conditions for some very turbulent weather. A tornado outbreak today in the early morning hours caused destruction in Kansas and Oklahoma. This image shows the air temperature at 40,000 Pascals (about 23,000 feet high in the atmosphere) using data outputs from the NOAA North America Model for 2100z on May 20, 2013, combined with an overlay of the winds at the same elevation. Tornadoes typically occur at the convergence of these two different air masses. A distinct boundary of “cold meeting warm” is visible in this temperature data, extending from Texas into Illinois.
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1349&MediaTypeID=1
Unfortunately, EF-5 tornadoes occur only too frequently. This latest is the 59th recorded since 1950, so on average about one every year.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html
The full list is in Appendix A, but Figure 1 shows that these strongest tornadoes were more common in the colder climate of 1950-80.
Figure 1
Many tornadoes, of course, pass through relatively empty farmland, and don’t lead to the damage and loss of life that this one did. Nevertheless, there have been 27 tornadoes since 1970 that have caused more than 20 fatalities, so, on average, it is, unfortunately, the sort of tragedy we can expect to see nearly every year.
I cannot finish without saying how utterly disgusted I am by those who have chosen to make political capital out of human suffering, such as Senator Boxer. What they have done is pure evil. She and the rest should be ashamed of themselves.
APPENDIX A – F5/EF5 TORNADOES SINCE 1950
================================================= NUMBER DATE LOCATION ====== ===================== =========================== 59 May 20, 2013 Moore OK 58 May 24, 2011 El Reno/Piedmont OK 57 May 22, 2011 Joplin MO 56 April 27, 2011 Rainsville/Sylvania AL 55 April 27, 2011 Preston MS 54 April 27, 2011 Hackleburg/Phil Campbell AL 53 April 27, 2011 Smithville MS 52 May 25, 2008 Parkersburg IA 51 May 4, 2007 Greensburg KS 50 May 3, 1999 Bridge Creek/Moore OK 49 April 16, 1998 Waynesboro TN 48 April 8, 1998 Oak Grove/Pleasant Grove AL 47 May 27, 1997 Jarrell TX 46 July 18, 1996 Oakfield WI 45 June 16, 1992 Chandler MN 44 April 26, 1991 Andover KS 43 August 28, 1990 Plainfield IL 42 March 13, 1990 Goessel KS 41 March 13, 1990 Hesston KS 40 May 31, 1985 Niles OH 39 June 7, 1984 Barneveld WI 38 April 2, 1982 Broken Bow OK 37 April 4, 1977 Birmingham AL 36 June 13, 1976 Jordan IA 35 April 19, 1976 Brownwood TX 34 March 26, 1976 Spiro OK 33 April 3, 1974 Guin AL 32 April 3, 1974 Tanner AL 31 April 3, 1974 Mt. Hope AL 30 April 3, 1974 Sayler Park OH 29 April 3, 1974 Brandenburg KY 28 April 3, 1974 Xenia OH 27 April 3, 1974 Daisy Hill IN 26 May 6, 1973 Valley Mills TX 25 February 21, 1971 Delhi LA 24 May 11, 1970 Lubbock TX 23 June 13, 1968 Tracy MN 22 May 15, 1968 Maynard IA 21 May 15, 1968 Charles City IA 20 April 23, 1968 Gallipolis OH 19 October 14, 1966 Belmond IA 18 June 8, 1966 Topeka KS 17 March 3, 1966 Jackson MS 16 May 8, 1965 Gregory SD 15 May 5, 1964 Bradshaw NE 14 April 3, 1964 Wichita Falls TX 13 May 5, 1960 Prague OK 12 June 4, 1958 Menomonie WI 11 December 18, 1957 Murphysboro IL 10 June 20, 1957 Fargo ND 9 May 20, 1957 Ruskin Heights MO 8 April 3, 1956 Grand Rapids MI 7 May 25, 1955 Udall KS 6 May 25, 1955 Blackwell OK 5 December 5, 1953 Vicksburg MS 4 June 27, 1953 Adair IA 3 June 8, 1953 Flint MI 2 May 29, 1953 Ft. Rice ND 1 May 11, 1953 Waco TX ============================================================
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
http://io9.com/5815423/10-villains-who-used-bad-weather-as-a-weapon
Let have some fun with the Doomongers.
Heard the Urban myth about watching The Wizard of OZ whilst listening to Dark Side of the Moon by Pink Floyd .The sound and pictures sync up.A film starring Judy Garland of a book written in 1900 about a Tornado.Before the Hockey Stick.
I have two slightly different versions of what happens in Tornado Alley
First, warm moist air from the Gulf meets cold dry air coming down from Canada
Second warm moist air from the Gulf meets Dry air coming over the Rockies from Colorado and cold air coming down from Canada.
Or can it be either one?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/22/oklahoma-tornado-end-world-ledonna-cobb
Oklahoma tornado: the end of a world is in Ledonna Cobb’s eyes
This picture of ordinary people surviving catastrophe calls out as a warning of strange, terrible things happening to planet Earth
Bold added: “This picture, if you don’t know the context, looks like the end of the world. Martians might have wiped out half of humanity, or the Gulf stream gone into overdrive (perhaps it has…).”
“It calls out as a warning, another one, about the strange things happening to planet Earth. Like survivors on the road out of Pompeii, the people in this picture have just seen a force that makes human effort pitiable, and this knowledge is in their eyes.”
Take note, human effort is so pitiable, we can defeat climate change with windmills and curly light bulbs. Our efforts are indeed so completely pitiful, we have brought the entire planet to the very cusp of an irrevocable runaway transformation to a Venusian hothouse.
===
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/21/moore-oklahoma-tornado-climate-change
Oklahoma tornado: is climate change to blame?
The Oklahoma twister was a ‘classic look’, but the data shows we are experiencing more volatility in the US tornado season
Photo caption: “The six least active and four most active tornado seasons have been felt over the past decade – which could show the influence of climate change.”
Text, bold added: “Global climate change and politics are linked to each other – for better or worse. No clearer was that the case than when Democratic senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island gave an impassioned speech on global warming in the aftermath of Monday’s deadly Oklahoma tornado, and the conservative media ripped him. Whitehouse implied that at least part of the blame for the deadly tornado should be laid at the feet of climate change.”
Good news, WUWT is now officially “conservative media”!
(attempts at meteorological explanations)
“The overall result could very well be fewer days of tornadoes per Harold Brooks of the National Storm Center, but more and stronger tornadoes when they do occur. Nothing about the tornado in Moore, Oklahoma, or tornadoes over the past few decades break with this theory.”
Fewer days of tornadoes, but more and stronger tornadoes? Didn’t they just sort of say that about “snow events”? Fewer tornado days and less total snow, but there will be more tornadoes per day and snow inches per event, with more extreme tornadoes and snowstorms?
Here goes:
How about a warning that says watch the sky (for an F3) general forecast, as opposed to an F4/5 outlook that warns survivability is limited to bunkers.
Take the day off, everybody. Stay close to your “bunker”.
If that prediction can’t be made, there is still work to do.
Whole cities in the Midwest/Northeast have been shut down before or during blizzards, why not do the same ?
Moore was a tragedy – happily not as bad as feared, when 90+ deaths had been indicated, but bad enough – and every unnecessary death is a human tragedy.
Weather happens – even, erratically, erratic weather.
We get weather in the UK [happily nothing like the Moore tornado], even if our Met Office [true believers to a person] considers it all Advanced Anthropogenic Climate Disruption: forgive me if I don’t have this hour’s buzz-phrase to hand.
The Climate – changes.
Weather – varies [in the UK, for sure!].
Do we humans affect it?
Locally [UHI, say] for sure.
Grossly – planet-wide – possibly a very little.
Adaptation is easier and cheaper – for the biome and for H. sapiens, and London and NYC etc. – than the absurd ‘prevention policies’ of a few widely-quoted souls desperate to suck a little longer on the public teat.
Are we facing a gradual decline in global temperatures? I hope not, but I fear that’s the way to bet.
Insulation anyone?
Quadruple glazing [helps keep sound out, too]?
Auto
Making cheap political quips about a regularly occurring natural phenomenon, which unfortunately went through a population centre, is beyond contempt.
Senator Boxer surrounds herself in smug self-righteousness and bad science – classic alarmism at work.
Eyeballing that F5 graph, it would appear, even with the 2011 outlier, that F5 tornados are on the deacreas. Good thing too, wouldn’t want more of these nasty stormes.
Those who take any unusual weather phenomena as evidence of CAGW would laugh with derision at those who don’t believe in the moon landing. Pot calling the kettle black.
What? Nothing about the ‘cap’ being violently broken? The position of the jet stream being in just the right place?
(I suppose thinking that deeply is only for wx geeks …)
.
What is amazing is how the F-5’s cluster by day.
1974 had seven F-5’s — All on April 3.
These are the only years where there were three or more DAYS of F-5 activity.
2011, 1976, 1968, 1966, 1957, 1953 [five days]
There is quite a gap between 1976 and 2011.
Is this a category drift? Is it harder to get classified F-5 now than in the 1950-1980 time frame?
Oklahoma Tornado Caused by man made Climate Change or Gods Will.
http://www.christianpost.com/news/westboro-tornado-blame-jason-collins-and-kevin-durant-to-blame-for-oklahoma-twister-claims-phelps-video-96388/
If you wanted to point the finger at climatic factors, the lingering cold in the north (as evidenced by the late nenana breakup) is a better culprit. When the north stays cold late into the season while the south experiences warm spring weather you have the kind of extreme temperature differences that lead to big weather.
@u.k.(us) at 1:59 pm
How about a warning … an F4/5 outlook that warns survivability is limited to bunkers.
Take the day off, everybody. Stay close to your “bunker”.
If that prediction can’t be made, there is still work to do.
The prediction can be made. Whether it is right is the trick.
The ratio (False Positives / True Positives), for even a 4 hr notice, on a per capita basis, would be very high.
“Snow days” are area wide phenomena. So are Hurricane days. You can use a broad brush.
F4/F5 impacts are limited to a few square miles out of tens of thousands — 0.01% of the watch area. Certainly keep an eye and ear out for trouble. Be ready to go home or to bunkers on 2 hours notice.
But a “Tornado Day”? Would it even save lives? Why should people be nearer shelter at home rather than at work or school?
Dear Moderators,
Can you convert that first image to a static one on the WordPress server? It’s doing strange things on the reloading, taking forever. Maybe NOAA doesn’t like the bandwidth stealing (grin).
Stephen Rasey says:
May 22, 2013 at 3:08 pm
“The ratio (False Positives / True Positives), for even a 4 hr notice, on a per capita basis, would be very high.”
=======
Nobody watches the sky anymore, they have real-time radar/warnings.
Yet, they won’t go under ground.
It is the only “safe” place to be during an F5.
TOO good not to post … Riding out the Joplin
Missouri tornado in a house 5-22-2011:
!! WARNING !! Strong language after the 4:15 point (after tornado ‘ends’)!
When I listen and listen again, I still can’t imagine what might be going through those poor people’s minds at the height of the noise …
.
If you get good at predicting the occurrence or ‘odds’ for that kind of thing, we have to talk about the Lotto and the Powerball lottery and even ‘horse racing’ and stock market ‘picks’ …
BTW, it’s not so much ‘watching the sky’ as it is ‘watching’ the SW quadrant of a supercell thunderstorm, either visually or with RADAR. These tornadoes had very evident and obvious debris balls showing on RADAR … and dual polarity was not necessary; KOCO TV in OKC with their own weather RADAR doing back and forth ‘sector scans’ of the tornadic T-storm showed the hook and debris ball QUITE well.
.
Looking at the list brought to mind the Flint Michigan tornado of June 8 1953. What is not usually known is that this storm system caused an F4 tornado the next day in Worcester, Massachusetts, resulting in 94 deaths The reason I remember this is because I was living in Michigan at the time and all my relatives on my father’s side lived in and around Worcester. And if you look at the record, the system spawned 46 tornadoes over a 3 day period and caused 247 deaths;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flint%E2%80%93Worcester_tornado_outbreak_sequence
Around that time I remember spending hours in the basement because of frequent tornado warnings in Adrian Michigan. We traveled to Worcester a week later and were amazed at all the damage we saw. Luckily, none of my relatives were killed or injured. This list just brought back vivid memories from 1953 when I was 10 years old.
This is a bad scenario. We now have an Omega block, and a persistent very cold trough in the Easternmost Pacific. It is very late in the season for this, normally the Pacific High would be asserting itself. In any case, “Yukon Express” type systems get caught in the flow, wheel down along the Pacific Coast, then exist stage left and on to the Southern Plains. Guess what? A very robust system, actually a proper Gulf of Alaska one, is prog’ed for the latter portion of Memorial Day Weekend. If that hits the Plains, watch out!
Yes, Barbara Boxer is disgusting. No more disgusting, though, than those who voted for her. They are the real culprits.
Drop the fawning phraseology about “American people.” Half of “American people” are Obama voters: immoral individuals who value their subsidies, handouts, and perverted notions of “fairness” more than their liberty and independence.
When tyranny shall come, it will be the “common folk who just wanted fairness,” not politicians, who’d have done it to us.
_Jim says:
May 22, 2013 at 4:36 pm
=====
The Met’s did good.
Now let’s ring every cell-phone in the region with the warning.
Nobody watches the sky anymore, they have real-time radar/warnings.
Yet, they won’t go under ground.
It is the only “safe” place to be during an F5.
People do go underground.
“Seven children died at Plaza Towers Elementary School, some of them drowning after a pipe burst in the basement where they hid. ” (USA Today.) Confirmed by CNN.
The death toll in Moore, OK is still only 24. out of 10,000 people affected and 2400 homes damaged. (CNN). Safe rooms are used and they work. There are just no guarantees.
Stephen Rasey says:
May 22, 2013 at 5:08 pm
======
Your stories and links, are bullshit.
The reports I have heard said the residents had 16 minute advanced warning. Not much time, but apparently much better than in the past. And that may have led to a smaller loss of life. Which is heartening to hear. At least there are some still doing real science.
But it is not in Congress. We have let ourselves be ruled by a group of ghouls. And boxer is the king.
Alexander F is a toolbox.