There’s a press conference going on right now with NCDC’s Tom Karl and NASA GISS Dr. James Hansen. They want us to believe them, about the certainty of their conclusions from data. I just checked the “State of the Climate Report” being referred to, and one has to wonder, when they are this sloppy with important details, can we really trust their conclusions derived from details? I had to laugh when I saw this in the SOTC for 2012:
You’d think they could get a simple detail like a date/time stamp on the official reports right. The “downloaded” time is the time my browser accessed it. The updated time is over a year ago, for a report made this month.
See for yourself here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
Scroll all the way to the bottom.
You have to wonder, like the warden in the Shawshank Redemption, are they being purposely obtuse?
Date/time stamps are crucial in science. Flubs like that would be enough to get most forensic science tossed out of court if they can’t establish the point in time exactly. It is a small detail to some, and a major detail to others. The devil is in the details, and if you want to convince people that your conclusions are accurate, pay attention to the details. Science is all about the details.
But maybe I’m wrong, and KarlHansian date and time is adjustable, much like they do with temperature, like that changing temperature of July 1936:
For example, the July 2012 SOTC report, issued in early August, announced that a new record had been set with the average July temperature for the contiguous United States at 77.6 degrees, one-fifth of a degree higher than in July 1936. However, the NCDC now says the July 2012 average was actually about 76.9 degrees, nearly 0.7 degrees less. This is almost 0.5 degrees cooler than the 77.4 degrees claimed as the previous monthly record in 1936. What is going on?
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Anthony,
The NCDC says that they updated their data and you are comparing numbers from two different data sets. From the NCDC:
“It is totally inappropriate to mix values from different data bases to identify records. This is exactly what Anthony Watts has done. He selected the mean monthly temperatures from an older data base (version 2 USHCN) and compared it to mean monthly temperatures in a newer data base (version 2.5 USHCN). This is a fatal error. For example, the US average temperature of July 2012 is the record warmest within both data bases”
You have compared the July record from the version 2USHCN to the version 2.5 USHCN. July 2012 is the hottest July in both data sets but they have changed the baseline so you cannot compare data from one set to the other.
IOW, 2012’s temperature is well below the average year’s in this century. (There are 9 above and 2 below it.)
Assuming Hadcrut3 and Hadcrut4 fall by as much as NCDC and GISS in December (likely), this is what the temp oberservations versus climate model forecasts looks like as of the end of 2012.
This is what I saying awhile ago about if temps fall in the next 6 months as their relationship to the ENSO and the AMO indicate should happen, then the day of reckoning may be on us sooner than expected. There has to be more temp reductions to come yet and that day will be here at that point.
Hansen’s newest paper released today along with the news conference with the NCDC tries to say Aerosols may be the cause. Beijing’s air quality index has apparently been off the charts bad in the last few days, but Hansen is wrong.
http://s2.postimage.org/3qxwqafbt/IPCC_Forecasts_vs_Obs_Dec_2012.png
The forecasts are NOW too far off from reality and the theory has to be re-written.
I’m calling it now.
Having watched the GISS figd.txt change in Nov. 2009 to promote 2006 to joint warmest with 1998 from about 6th, with 1934 demoted from joint warmest to about 6th, I don’t believe anything from either GISS or NCDC.
DaveE.
“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” – Abraham Lincoln
New political system in Australia. Democratic Dictatorship.
‘You vote us in and we will do what we like and you will do what we tell you.’ {s RGH
Bill Illis says:
January 15, 2013 at 2:17 pm
GISS down to 0.44C in Dec from 0.68C in Nov.
Base period is 1951-1980.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Hello Bill,
Something seems wrong with the information in the link. It shows only up to October at 0.69.
http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/draft-report-information
The above is a link to the draft Third Climate Assessment Report just released
There is an opportunity to submit comments so have a go at it.
I have downloaded the Executive summary and gave it a glance. It seems to say the same old things of Doom and Gloom: Floods, Sea Level Rise, Acedification, heavy rains, etc, etc.
Here is a sample of the change we never saw before (Sarc)
Climate change is already affecting the American people. Certain types of weather events have 2 become more frequent and/or intense, including heat waves, heavy downpours, and, in some 3 regions, floods and droughts. Sea level is rising, oceans are becoming more acidic, and glaciers 4 and arctic sea ice are melting. These changes are part of the pattern of global climate change, 5 which is primarily driven by human activity. 6
Many impacts associated with these changes are important to Americans’ health and livelihoods 7 and the ecosystems that sustain us. These impacts are the subject of this report. The impacts are 8 often most significant for communities that already face economic or health-related challenges, 9 and for species and habitats that are already facing other pressures. While some changes will 10 bring potential benefits, such as longer growing seasons, many will be disruptive to society 11 because our institutions and infrastructure have been designed for the relatively stable climate of 12 the past, not the changing one of the present and future. Similarly, the natural ecosystems that 13 sustain us will be challenged by changing conditions. Using scientific information to prepare for 14 these changes in advance provides economic opportunities, and proactively managing the risks 15 will reduce costs over time.”
Did they just copy the last report??
I wonder if they have mentioned the pause in temperature rise or the divergence of the temperature measurements from the models?
Found it, “the unambiguous story the planet is warming”
No reference to the pause yet !
“Evidence for climate change abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. 17 This evidence has been compiled by scientists and engineers from around the world, using 18 satellites, weather balloons, thermometers, buoys, and other observing systems. The sum total of 19 this evidence tells an unambiguous story: the planet is warming.”
Correct date/time are a cornerstone of Pharma GMPs of crucial importance. Our research has to be well documented according to the general requirements of “timely, accurate, complete”. Infractions are a serious event. People have lost their jobs over it. Agencies such as the FDA could suspend our operations for such violations.