Another inconvenient truth – 2012 US tornado count well below normal

Somewhere, weepy Bill McKibben is weeping and Al Gore is raging, because they won’t be able to say “2012, the hottest year ever, caused more tornadoes” So much for “dirty weather” Heh.

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center just updated their 2012 tornado count graph to the end of November. While the year is not over, the average number of 25 tornadoes expected in December (or lower if the below normal trend holds) would suggest that 2012 will end with well below normal tornado activity.

NOAA SPC’s Greg Carbin writes:

After a busy start, tornado events in the U.S. in 2012 have dropped well below the expected norm. The preliminary total of 886 tornadoes through 30 November 2012 is nearly 400 tornadoes below what might be expected in a “normal” year.

2011-2012-tornado-annual-depature[1]

The chart above shows that at this time in 2011, the annual running total was about 400 tornadoes *above* normal; a mirror opposite of 2012.

The chart is meant to depict the dramatic variability that can occur in tornado numbers from one year to the next. On average about 25 tornadoes occur during the month of December based on data from the last 30 years. Click for full image or see the detailed written summary to date below.

U.S. Tornado Information

Information about the tornadoes of 2012 (to-date) and comparison with other years and events. (Click image for pdf version.)

Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/

Footnote: be sure to help in the fun to give Al Gore get his hockey stick courtesy of WUWT readers by watching his silly severe weather propaganda video here.

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November 30, 2012 11:31 pm

I just check the Weather Channel for the radar and local reports. They run program after program about CO2 and climate change to an unsuspecting crowd. They just state it as fact that all weather now is caused by man and those smokestacks with steam coming out of them. They did a history of the weather channel not long ago, but didn’t mention John Coleman, I wonder why.

orson2
December 1, 2012 12:20 am

I think the correct answer was provided above by numbatdog:
“When will you get it that facts dont matter anymore? The Left’s answer to inconvenient facts is to just keep repeating the same emotional lies – Polar bears are dying, the seas are rising, it’s getting hotter, glaciers are almost gone.” Etc.
Too true – we can see that it is the case as we read, write, or listen to the Majesty of the Left.

Editor
December 1, 2012 12:36 am

bill mckibben says: November 30, 2012 at 8:46 pm
Oddly, despite the declaration in this article that this news would make we weep, I find that i’m opposed to tornadoes, which is why i reported on the record low of them in July, calling it ‘good news,’
I commend you on your openness to the facts.
albeit about the only good news of that record-setting month.
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/mckibben_summer_of_weather_extremes_signifies_new_climate_normal/2568/
Your article seems to be based on many anecdotes from small geographic regions, e.g.:

“North American summer actually started two days before the official end of winter this year, when the town of Winner, South Dakota turned in a 94-degree temperature reading”
“While Tropical Storm Debby, the earliest fourth-named storm ever, was drenching Florida, fires were breaking out in New Mexico and Colorado that would become the largest and most expensive in those states’ histories. As the Front Range of the Rockies set all-time temperature records, horrible wild fires obliterated homes in Colorado Springs and Fort Collins.”

If the the contiguous U.S. is just “1.58% of the total surface area of the Earth”, of what relevance is Winner, South Dakota to the “Global” Warming debate?
Furthermore, what is the significances of Tropical Storm Debby being “the earliest fourth-named storm ever” and”drenching Florida”, when the data available on Tropical Cyclones seems to show that there’s been a decreace in Tropical Cyclone activity recently:
Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)y – 1971 to Present
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="564"] Ryan N. Maue PhD – PoliClimate.com – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency- 1971 to Present
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="564"] Ryan N. Maue PhD – PoliClimate.com – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Global Hurricane Frequency – 1978 to Present
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="564"] Ryan N. Maue PhD – PoliClimate.com – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
US Extremes in Landfalling Tropical Systems – 1910 to Present – Annual
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Can you offer any data sources that show a significant increase in Tropical Cyclone frequency, strength, season, etc.?

jones
December 1, 2012 12:37 am

It’s just weather….er….something…..

P. Solar
December 1, 2012 12:55 am

Strong tornado count (>EF2) basically has a long term, negative correlation to northern hemisphere SST. Though the conditions that create tornadoes are not that simple, so don’t expect this to work on a year to year basis, like all things in climate there are decadal scale patterns too:
http://i50.tinypic.com/2w3z0p4.png
(Note tornado count is inverted in this graph)
Tornado count on this inverted plot peaked around year 2000. There is a clear trend towards more tornadoes. This is yet another indicator that we have entered a cooling phase since around 2000.
Expect more proof of “extreme weather” next year from weeping Bill whether there are more or less tornadoes, it will always the “abnormal” “new normal” and a sign of impending doom.
Meanwhile, in the real world:
For the US, the current cooling will bring more tornadoes and less hurricanes.

P. Solar
December 1, 2012 1:05 am

Just the facts says: Can you offer any data sources that show a significant increase in Tropical Cyclone frequency, strength, season, etc.?
http://i49.tinypic.com/xbfqtw.png
This is basically similar to the NOAA US _landfalling_ hurricanes plot but shows the link to North Atlantic SST. It shows the same thing as Ryan Maue’s plots but on a broader time-scale.
Compare this to the previous tornado plot to see how the two phenomena act in roughly opposing ways to temperature.

John Doe
December 1, 2012 2:41 am

It’s friggin 4 degrees F here in mid-Maine… wtf??
And the weather channels are all… “Going to be a high of 40’s for Saturday…”… are they for real?

mkelly
December 1, 2012 2:49 am

“It’s really amazing that they’re considering someone for Secretary of State who has millions invested in these companies,” Bill McKibben, a writer and founder of the activist groups 350.org and Tar Sands Action, told the website. “The State Department has been rife with collusion with the Canadian pipeline builders, and it’s really distressing to have any sense that that might continue to go on.”
Mods I thought Anthony might be interested in this quote from Weepy Bill even though it is concerning a pipe line. I found it on Fox news web site.

Jimbo
December 1, 2012 2:52 am

Back in April 2011 Dr. Roy Spencer thought Warmists were joking when they tried to link more tornadoes and global warming.

MORE Tornadoes from Global Warming? That’s a Joke, Right?
“…….If there is one weather phenomenon global warming theory does NOT predict more of, it would be severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
Tornadic thunderstorms do not require tropical-type warmth. In fact, tornadoes are almost unheard of in the tropics, despite frequent thunderstorm activity…………..
But contrasting air mass temperatures is the key. Active tornado seasons in the U.S. are almost always due to unusually COOL air persisting over the Midwest and Ohio Valley longer than it normally does as we transition into spring. …….”
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/04/more-tornadoes-from-global-warming-thats-a-joke-right/

Never let observations get in the way of a good story. Never let facts get in the way of a good story. Always blame global warming for things people don’t like or find ‘unusual’ at certain times of the year. Blame the weather for things people like or find ‘normal’ at certain times of the year.
When are these scaremongers going to give up with the misinformation campaign against the public?

Editor
December 1, 2012 3:09 am

I have never thought deeply about the weather or the climate until AGW came along. Looking at the graph of US tornadoes comparing 2011 and 2012 it is striking that the average is maintained.
At the beginning of this year we had “drought” conditions in the UK. Water companies were panicking and putting in place hosepipe bans, we were told that a dirty car was to be proud of, the Met Office were telling us all that AGW was to blame. After the wettest summer on record the resevoirs are overflowing and all the fields are waterlogged.
This is why there are averages, they are just that – averages!

Gail Combs
December 1, 2012 3:19 am

john robertson says:
November 30, 2012 at 8:47 pm
Is it just me, or is there a sad air of desperation and defeat about the spin-meisters of doom by weather? I sense they are not even making the effort, to at least sound plausible, anymore.
________________________________________
Why should they?
The brainwashing part of the project has achieved its purpose. The next step is to consolidate the position before the cooling climate makes the hoax obvious to the Sheeple. That is why the IPCC was no even at the convention. It is not and never was about CAGW it was about the UN’s ability to tax and getting a strangle hold on energy. If you control energy you control a country.
A top Democrat and Republican on energy matters in the Senate left the door open to compromise on a potential carbon tax
In Washington they are saying But why institute a carbon tax, if not to raise revenue? In brief: Because it would reduce harm in the future and compensate for harm in the past. And how would it “compensate for harm in the past?” July 5 [2012] (Reuters) – The United Nations on Thursday urged countries to impose international taxes to raise more than $400 billion a year, such as a carbon tax, a currency transaction tax and a billionaires tax

…a United Nations survey which suggested “innovative” ways to fund global development projects…
“Indeed, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change mandates only that higher-income countries make specific targeted reductions, as those countries are responsible for most of the man-made concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and are best able to bear the economic burden,” the survey said.
“In this vein, a tax of $25 per ton of CO2 emitted by developed countries is expected to raise $250 billion per year in global tax revenues,” the survey continued….
In August, Democratic Congressman Jim McDermott of Washington introduced a bill that would create a carbon emissions permitting system, placing an initial maximum price of $18.75 per ton of carbon which would then steeply rise to $131.25 per ton of carbon over a decade.
The Managed Carbon Price Act of 2012 aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 80 percent of 2005 levels within 42 years of its enactment, and the Treasury Department would issue permits which are not allowed to be traded. Permits could only be purchased from the Treasury or refunded by them
The proceeds from the tax going to a trust fund where 25 percent would go towards deficit reduction and 75 percent would be spent to offset price increases for the public….
The American people care about the deficit and they’re worried about climate change–and we can fix both without hurting the economy,” McDermott said

I wonder how much of that tax is going to go to the UN. In Australia it is 10%

Jimbo
December 1, 2012 3:42 am

Al Gore 2006 interview.

[Q] There’s a lot of debate right now over the best way to communicate about global warming and get people motivated. Do you scare people or give them hope? What’s the right mix?
—–
[Al Gore] I think the answer to that depends on where your audience’s head is. In the United States of America, unfortunately we still live in a bubble of unreality. And the Category 5 denial is an enormous obstacle to any discussion of solutions. Nobody is interested in solutions if they don’t think there’s a problem. Given that starting point, I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are, and how hopeful it is that we are going to solve this crisis.
http://grist.org/article/roberts2/

This explains his tornado prophecies.

December 1, 2012 3:56 am

OT. May be of interest to the solar aficionados
The SIDC’s November SSN = 61.4, same as the September’s (61.5) and few points above the October’s (53.3).
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN.htm
According to the data from the WSO, the solar magnetic field reversed its polarity recently, signifying SS24 max within a year or so.

mwhite
December 1, 2012 4:12 am

US landfalling major hurricanes
http://climaterealists.com/?id=10681

December 1, 2012 4:37 am

The average is simply the mean of all the possible realisations. Reality is always highly variable. And if you were living in an 11 year, or 30 year, or 80 year, or 200 year or 1000 year or 2200 year cycle, or combinations of these, the long term average would still be zero. The problem with long cycles and short measurement periods (say 150 years of semi-reliable temperature data) is that you cannot tell the difference between an upswing on a cycle with zero mean (stationary) and a trend. Environmental alarmists take every change from the average to indicate disaster, whereas in reality every year will show a difference from the average, because by definition the average is simply…the average. Every year is gonna be either above or below. If you don’t believe me, try rolling dice.

Richard Lawson
December 1, 2012 5:50 am

Anthony, why do you insist on using words like ‘weepy’ to describe people. It simply demeans both you, your point of view and your great site. Stooping as low as your opponents is never a good way to win any argument. Why don’t you try taking the moral high ground and focus on the argument not the person. You may feel some short term satisfaction in taking such an approach but when you look back at your writing in 20 years time you may very well regret it. Of course it’s your site and you can do as you please, but it really doesn’t paint you in a great light.

P. Solar
December 1, 2012 6:15 am

http://climaterealists.com/?id=10681
cherry picking. On what basis were these periods chosen? If you have the data to do a plot ,plot it all, not the bits that make a point.
cf
http://i49.tinypic.com/xbfqtw.png

richardscourtney
December 1, 2012 7:10 am

Richard Lawson:
re your post at December 1, 2012 at 5:50 am.
I – and I am sure many others – have noted your crocodile tears.
Richard

David Ball
December 1, 2012 7:25 am

Will Bill Mckibben have the courage to respond to those who responded to him? Stayed tuned to this station to find out the intriguing answer to this and many more questions on today’s episode of ” Alarmist Hit and Run”.

highflight56433
December 1, 2012 8:21 am

“But contrasting air mass temperatures is the key. Active tornado seasons in the U.S. are almost always due to unusually COOL air persisting over the Midwest and Ohio Valley longer than it normally does as we transition into spring. …….”
You might find a correlation between cooler periods with increases in tornadoes. As cooler Canadian air masses persist to collide with warm Gulf air mass into late spring and summer, the chances of nasty of nasty lines of T-storms producing tornadoes will also increase. My guess.
Imagine pouring cold water into warm water, not much of a show, but dropping liquid N2 into the warm water exhibits the nastiness of the combination of extremes. Same with the onset of tornadoes, or at least similar. Don’t try this at home, I am an expert, and only experts get to have fun. 🙂

December 1, 2012 8:29 am

“Another inconvenient truth – 2012 US tornado count well below normal”
OH NO!! Another example of an “extreme” change from normal!!!

Berényi Péter
December 1, 2012 8:48 am

Is it really that inconvenient to live with no tornadoes? I knew America was a weird place, but this phrasing is just too funny.
Otherwise the missing tornadoes may be hiding in the pipeline, just to come back later in vengeance for our carboniferous sins. It is a scary scenario, one can almost feel esoteric energy, unmeasurable to frail technical devices building up and up an up until it breaks through to eradicate human worms from the face of mother Gaia.

December 1, 2012 9:00 am

Berényi Péter says:
December 1, 2012 at 8:48 am
Is it really that inconvenient to live with no tornadoes? I knew America was a weird place, but this phrasing is just too funny.
Otherwise the missing tornadoes may be hiding in the pipeline, just to come back later in vengeance for our carboniferous sins. It is a scary scenario, one can almost feel esoteric energy, unmeasurable to frail technical devices building up and up an up until it breaks through to eradicate human worms from the face of mother Gaia.
=====================================================================
Missing heat. Missing tornadoes. Missing hurricanes. What are they missing?

Bruce Cobb
December 1, 2012 9:23 am

Richard Lawson says:
December 1, 2012 at 5:50 am
Anthony, why do you insist on using words like ‘weepy’ to describe people.
I believe weepy bill earned his much-deserved nickname at Copenhagen, where he
cried a lot. They are the crocodile tears of a rabid Believer, and only for show, to, he hopes, galvanize his fellow enviro-whackos to action.

bill mckibben
December 1, 2012 9:24 am

Actually, according to the folks at the Natl Severe Storms Laboratory, the heat dome that caused the remarkable drought seems to be the reason for fewer tornadoes. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/28/tornado-season-2012-recor_n_1711679.html A hard sort of tradeoff–Jeff Masters provided some statistical reasoning to say it was probably not worth the tradeoff. http://www.heraldandnews.com/article_90e490d2-e419-11e1-84eb-001a4bcf887a.html Interestingly, all this came up once before, when Mr. Watts accused me of ‘disappearing’ things from my Twitter account, but then it turned out he didn’t have the settings quite right on his Twitter account (admittedly fairly easy to do) and so they just appeared to be disappearing to him.http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/13/bill-mckibben-disappears-his-own-commentary-on-poisonedweather/ We cleared that up at the time. At any rate, that’s all from weepy me today–I’m in Omaha, where last week 99.69% of the state was in severe drought, but this week it’s up to 100%. I hope everyone has an excellent weekend

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