Below, you’ll find the latest update from NHC (as of this writing plus an animation from Dr. Ryan Maue that shows the details of the projected path and the meteorological variables as Sandy progresses.
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 70.5W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT... THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. WEATHERFLOW STATIONS AT LEWES DELAWARE AND TUCKERTON NEW JERSEY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 MPH AND GUSTS TO 52 MPH. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...LATER TODAY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
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Here is a forecast animation from Dr. Ryan Maue which depending on your browser, may or may not animate until you click on it. It is 8.8MB in size and may take a couple of minutes to load on slower connections.
It depicts wind speeds and pressure. Not the the center of pressure (the eye) in this model NCEP is forecast to landfall in central new Jersey and cross into Southern Pennsylvania, passing almost directly over Philadelphia.
Izen gets shown some empirical evidence of cooling in the Antarctic….. and he simply rejects it in favor of his own reality. Sigh.
We’ve gotten some nice, long roars of wind up here in southern New Hampshire, where most of our leaves are already gone. Considering how far we are from the gale’s center, I am not inclined to scoff at this storm, just yet.
Izen
This thread is about Sandy.
Your obsession with other topics would best be served on threads related to your world view.
Current conditions @ur momisugly Lewes, Delaware from the NWS:
Humidity 93%
Wind Speed NW 20 G 37 mph
Barometer 28.84 in (976.5 mb)
Dewpoint 51°F (11°C)
Visibility 2.00 mi
Wind Chill 48°F (9°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 12:54 pm EDT
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Current conditions @ur momisugly Tuckerton, NJ from the NWS:
Humidity 93%
Wind Speed N 31 G 41 mph
Barometer 28.75 in (973.3 mb)
Dewpoint 55°F (13°C)
Visibility 1.25 mi
Last Update on 29 Oct 12:54 pm EDT
—-
Current conditions @ur momisugly Virginia Beach, Va from the NWS:
Humidity 97%
Wind Speed W 22 G 33 mph
Barometer 29.10 in (985.7 mb)
Dewpoint 51°F (11°C)
Visibility 2.50 miWind Chill 46°F (8°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 12:56 pm EDT
——-
To add (just for fun) the current Cleveland, OH conditions from NWS:
Humidity85%
Wind SpeedN 26 G 35 mph
Barometer29.83 in (1010.3 mb)
Dewpoint40°F (4°C)
Visibility6.00 mi
Wind Chill35°F (2°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 12:53 pm EDT
—-
Current conditions @ur momisugly Bermuda:
Latest Conditions At L.F.Wade Int. Airport in Bermuda
Recorded at 1:55 pm
Partly Cloudy
Temp.: 27°C/80°F
Humidity: 56%
Wind: WSW 25KT (29 mph)
—-
Current conditions @ur momisugly Wilmington, NC from the NWS:
Humidity 64%
Wind Speed NW 16 G 30 mph
Barometer 29.49 in (998.5 mb)
Dewpoint 43°F (6°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 51°F (11°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 11:53 am EDT
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izen says:
“…consensus climate science.” <— absolute oxymoron. Emphasis on moron.
Izen seems to think a 0.5 deg drop in temp is small. I guess it is but is about the same as global warming in the other direction. So why is one more significant than the other?
From the National Hurricane Center / Cumulative Wind History
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/150352.shtml?swath#contents
Graphic clearly shows wind history to be “tropical force” (i e 39 to 73 mph). No sign or reports from any other source other than the NHC or MSM.
This is Irene hype all over again. Brings up the question as to what the real measured wind speed is offshore where only the NHC can measure.
Hype will kill. I would question any report put out by the NHC.
Their storm tracks are the only thing of any value in my opinion.
Caleb says:
October 29, 2012 at 9:46 am
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Please post (copy and paste is fine) from your local Current Conditions from the National Weather Service.
Personal observations can be subjective.
izen says:
October 29, 2012 at 9:12 am
No izen, you never said “I told you so”. You didn’t predict anything. You’re just a selfish CAGW extremist who is taking the opportunity of a rare natural disaster to enjoy the pain and misery of others. Says a lot about your character…
It’s too bad izen has poisoned the waters, so to speak, since I do have serious questions about the Arctic sea ice.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
While we’ve been worried about Sandy, the unprecedented sea ice recovery has apparently stalled.
Has Sandy been moving warmth into the Arctic?
Or is Sandy’s influence already breaking up and blowing around the new ice, causing it to pile up, reducing extent?
Or are the satellites messing up because the clouds from Sandy are blocking their view?
I’m interested in what’s really going on up there.
In response to kadaka, there’s been warm southerlies blowing over Alaska holding the Arctic ice back.
eyesonu says:
October 29, 2012 at 10:50 am
Caleb says:
October 29, 2012 at 9:46 am
“Please post (copy and paste is fine) from your local Current Conditions from the National Weather Service.
Personal observations can be subjective.”
Jaffrey @ur momisugly 2:42 PM Wind NE 16 G 31 Pressure 29.35
Manchester @ur momisugly 2:53 PM Wind NE 29 G 49 Pressure 29.38
There. Are you happy now?
Lights have blinked. Once the power goes out I’ll be off the web, and stuck with personal observations, which can be subjective. In fact I just went out for a walk in the subjective wind using my subjective legs and headed up to the nearby flood control reservoir to stand up on the dam and feel the subjective gusts shove me. The winds would die down, and then you’d hear the pines start roaring to the east, and the mist would start slanting and fly sideways, and the surface of the water would swiftly play with darting cat’s-paws, swirling and spreading, and then from the far side of the small lake you’d hear the pines roar and see them sway and toss big boughs as the blast moved away. Utterly subjective, but undeniably cool.
At 2:52 Boston has winds NE 40 G 56 Pressure 29.27
Winds here in western NH are about 15 gusting to 30 mph. No rain (yet). The governor has declared a state of emergency and has asked everyone to remain off the roads. We’ll see if our power goes out. It didn’t during Irene, but we got a tremendous amount of flooding…
Should “Not the the center of pressure…” be “Note that the center of pressure…”?
Caleb says:
October 29, 2012 at 12:16 pm
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Thank you. The weather report was not so subjective but rather quite objective. I had to work and entailed driving through 9 hours of cross/sideways gusts at 70 mph.
I really enjoyed your subjective description. Seriously! It was award winning! And yes, you made me happy! 😉
Subjective vs objective. Both have their place.
To make the above statement objectively clear, I was driving 70 mph. I have no idea of the wind speed. Not too bad as the side profile of the vehicle was about 650 sq ft.
Caleb says:
October 29, 2012 at 12:16 pm
===============
Your comment/response
+1
Yesterday Anthony pointed out how the government was being alarmist like the media normally is. But this isn’t a good thing. The last thing we need from the professionals is alarmism. For example, from this report:
“…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…”
Given that people can drown in two inches of water, what does that mean? This vague, alarmist crap is counter-productive. It’s bad when media outlets engage in it. It’s worse when supposedly scientific outlets engage in it.
I guess the silver lining is it makes clear the supposed scientific outlets are just political tools. I hope everybody learns that, but I’m not holding my breath.