Below, you’ll find the latest update from NHC (as of this writing plus an animation from Dr. Ryan Maue that shows the details of the projected path and the meteorological variables as Sandy progresses.
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 70.5W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT... THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. WEATHERFLOW STATIONS AT LEWES DELAWARE AND TUCKERTON NEW JERSEY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 MPH AND GUSTS TO 52 MPH. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...LATER TODAY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
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Here is a forecast animation from Dr. Ryan Maue which depending on your browser, may or may not animate until you click on it. It is 8.8MB in size and may take a couple of minutes to load on slower connections.
It depicts wind speeds and pressure. Not the the center of pressure (the eye) in this model NCEP is forecast to landfall in central new Jersey and cross into Southern Pennsylvania, passing almost directly over Philadelphia.
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I am located 5 miles inland of Scituate Ma.. The strongest winds on the NE side of the model indicate we will be hit pretty hard.
Hurricane Sandy will amount to nothing more than our usual fall gale. We get them every year on the east coast. We look forward to them each fall, the surfing is choice.
Piers Corbyn thinks it may veer east like the last one that made it up that far … lets hope he is right.
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=499&c=5
From Piers’ website.
“END GAME for Hurricane Sandy. Piers Corbyn announced 7am BST 2am EDT Thurs Oct25 That the track of Sandy from Friday 26th onwards is likely to be TO THE EAST OF THE STANDARD MODEL TRACK (ie curving slightly rightwards compared to standard models – such as forecast iaaued 2am edt Oct 25 http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html ) and so LESS OF A THREAT to mainland USA. “This will happen because of solar particle factors and we are 80% sure of this. We made similar corrections to the track of Irene and some other Storms last year which were confirmed – see http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No15.pdf“
Max RECCON surface wind 66 KT. No convection. Cold, dry air encircling storm. Still no sustained gale force winds on the coast.
The January 2009 ice storm killed 65 or more people, 35 in Kentucky alone. Nothing at all was said about that storm by this shameful CAGW hyper pumping media we have in the USA. Global warming drums must remain silent about reporting the -35° to -22°F accompanying that storm.
2008 Hurricane Ike met up with a cold front that delayed it’s dissipation and even added to it’s strength for a period of time inland. So I hope it doesn’t get too serious on folks in the northeast.
Hurricane Ike put a pine tree down on my home in critter junction, Arkansas and the ice storm put down a big hickory that busted up my leg.
Just be careful, folks.
You can follow it here, live, as Mark braves the elements to set up equipment (video and data logging) as Sandy comes in to shore.
http://hurricanetrack.com/
This is a serious storm. Not to downplay, that, I have a comment about the supposed global warming cause: the only place where the Atlantic has been warmer than usual is where this storm has not yet been – of t e New England coast. Isaac pulled a lot of heat out of the atlantic in the path this storm is following. Tropical depressions happen. It is really quite something to declare that the air temp, atlantic ocean temp, or atmospheric humidity were unusual, are attributable to the global warming, and are a sign of what is to become normal.
Katrina was supposed to be the new normal, and we have gone since Ike without a landfall hurricane. This one technically cannot be a ‘tropical storm,’ cuz it is now a post-tropical storm, but that is just a technicality; sandy may not have sustained winds at or above 75mph at 20 meters at landfall, and so may not be a hurricane at landfall.
It will be a whopper of a storm, like Irene was, even though Irene was not a hurricane at landfall.
These things happen .They have happpened in the past, when CO2 was lower.
Looking at Sandy’s wind speed advisories (#s 21-27), she / he had 7 in a row with sustained winds at 75mph, the hurricane definition. how likely is that?
John A says:
October 29, 2012 at 1:53 am
Name calling (my bold) doesn’t do anything more than belittle your position, John A, and make you look intollerant in front of the world. But that’s your choice, apparently.
@- Goode ’nuff
“The January 2009 ice storm killed 65 or more people, 35 in Kentucky alone. Nothing at all was said about that storm by this shameful CAGW hyper pumping media we have in the USA. Global warming drums must remain silent about reporting the -35° to -22°F accompanying that storm.”
Perhaps they should have mentioned that factor.
Looking at the weather maps for the period of the Jan 2009 Midwest ice storm makes it clear that the jet stream was again looped south allowing the cold arctic air to descend to the mid-latitudes. A process seen again now, but further out into the Atlantic, that is far more probable with the extreme warming of the arctic.
Current conditions @ur momisugly Lewes, Delaware from the NWS:
Humidity NA
Wind Speed N 14 G 31 mph
Barometer 29.17 in (987.5 mb)
Dewpoint NA
Visibility 2.50 mi
Wind Chill 50°F (10°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 8:54 am EDT
———–
Current conditions @ur momisugly Tuckerton, NJ from the NWS:
Humidity 93%
Wind Speed N 18 G 32 mph
Barometer 29.12 in (986.1 mb)
Dewpoint 51°F (11°C)
Visibility 1.00 mi
Wind Chill 48°F (9°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 8:54 am EDT
———–
Somebody is going to have some explaining to do when this is over. This is beginning to smell like a replay of Irene with the NHC.
Never forget Irene.
To add (just for fun) the current Cleveland, OH conditions from NWS to my previous comment:
Humidity 89%
Wind SpeedN 25 G 36 mph
Barometer 29.89 in (1012.4 mb)
Dewpoint 40°F (4°C)
Visibility 6.00 mi
Wind Chill 33°F (1°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 8:53 am EDT
——
izen says:
“…the extreme warming of the arctic.”
As opposed to the extreme cooling of the Antarctic.
Cape Cod National Seashore webcam (Coast Guard Beach)
http://easthamchamber.com/visitors/coast-guard-beach-webcam
The top of the bank is about 50′ above the shoreline. This will get really interesting around 1300EDT onward.
People with Jersey Shore interests (not the TV show) may want to check out http://www.facebook.com/JerseyShoreHurricaneNews
Maybe http://www.facebook.com/groups/271722322839260/ too.
klem says:
October 29, 2012 at 4:53 am
> Hurricane Sandy will amount to nothing more than our usual fall gale. We get them every year on the east coast. We look forward to them each fall, the surfing is choice.
Be sure to take photos this afternoon! Perhaps you can start an informal competition to see how far inland people can surf.
izen says:October 29, 2012 at 7:14 am
[…]A process seen again now, but further out into the Atlantic, that is far more probable with the extreme warming of the arctic.
No, a process far more probable with the inexorable onset of winter…
It’s interesting that we see people like izen here taking full advantage of peoples’ misery for his own selfish (and bizarrely incorrect) CAGW extremism…
Izen, I hope you’re not saying the chances of a déjà vu of that ice storm are high. At least there are no more trees that are real dangerous to fall on my cabin. Unless… the wind was to get really stout on thickly ice coated ones.
None of them turned brown from the drought this summer, except a few way off in the woods. We did bucket brigades and saved a lot of trees.
This coming spring will reveal the true drought kill of the trees in the Ozarks. *fingers crossed* a lot of them wilted.
Ric Werme says:
October 29, 2012 at 7:39 am
> Hurricane Sandy will amount to nothing more than our usual fall gale. We get them every year on the east coast. We look forward to them each fall, the surfing is choice.
Be sure to take photos this afternoon! Perhaps you can start an informal competition to see how far inland people can surf.
—
Please everyone – be sensible. This is a dangerous storm. I live in New Hampshire and I am taking appropriate precautions to secure my home and property. We may be without power for a while…
@- D Böehm says:
“As opposed to the extreme cooling of the Antarctic.”
I await with interest some scientific data supporting this assertion.
http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/6/3703/2012/tcd-6-3703-2012.pdf
izen:
Empirical scientific evidence:
http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/3241/spannualkq5.png
Just had a call from a relative. The colorized videos being shown on the weather sham show indicate that we (where I live) in the Virginia area, have been experiencing hours of severe rain bands; extremely heavy rain, high winds, scary stuff… Only, we’ve had a fair amount of rain, relatively steady sometimes heavier, occasional gusts of wind. Most of the time the light branches of the trees (still heavy with leaves) are only waving and rustling.
It seems those severe rain bands are colorized to look like storms, not really. The storm has taken a severe hit. It is no longer the monster storm it used to be and the organized area is much smaller. The dry air to the south and to the NE have chopped the storm down. The bad news is that the center looks to be reorganizing somewhat just before hitting land. It makes for a much smaller storm with a more dangerous center. Still a minimal storm.
It is still a nor’easter. Gale winds over long reaches making for dangerous waves and surf. Lots and lots of the wet stuff falling.
If Piers is correct and the storm swings to the East, it might still clip Massachusetts and will still make for trouble along the coast. If not, it will slap New Jersey and New York city around some before it breaks up, again.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
@- D Böehm
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/bas_research/science/climate/antarctic_peninsula.php
“2 Observed changes
Since records began, 50 years ago, mean annual temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have risen rapidly [Turner, et al., 2005; Vaughan, et al., 2001; Vaughan, et al., 2003]. A total increase in mean annual air temperatures, of around 2.8 °C makes this the most rapidly warming region in the Southern Hemisphere – comparable to rapidly warming regions of the Arctic.”
This contrasts with the Amundsen-Scott station data that you posted that shows less than half a degree difference over fifty years. And while the present temp may be around 0.3degC colder than 1957 the second half oc thr graph shows higher temperatures as well as lower in the last couple of decades. Antarctic weather seems to have got more extreme….
We can both find bits of the Antarctic that are warming, cooling, gaining ice and losing ice.
Neither the regional cooling or the gain in snow cover in the east of Antarctica offsets the much greater loss of arctic ice in the summer or the overall warming of the arctic.
@- Frank K. says:
“It’s interesting that we see people like izen here taking full advantage of peoples’ misery for his own selfish (and bizarrely incorrect) CAGW extremism…”
My apologies, I accept that people saying “I told you so…” Is not pleasant or tactful.
But there are those here rejecting the potential dangers of this storm, and completely avoiding the larger implications of such extreme weather, because of their own selfish {and bizarrely incorrect} rejection of the consensus climate science.