LewWorld still has no comment of substance, and in the ‘Skeptical Science’ style, is furiously deleting inconvenient comments that ask questions like “What are you going to do now that the removal of the fake responses shows a conclusion reverse of that of your title”?
Jo Nova finds that Lewandowsky has received $1.7 million AU in taxpayer dollars since 2007.
Can you believe how much it costs to do an internet survey these days?
Yet with all that, he used the “free” Kwiksurvey platform.
Kwik Surveys is a Free to use survey builder. We have designed Kwik Surveys to be easy to use for all experience levels so you will quickly be creating surveys.
Why free? Over 75% of our customers are educational and profit free enterprises with little or no budget.
Free is not the best! Worried about customer support? That is why we offer you a chance to upgrade to premium support.
Science on the cheap, even when you have money. Stay sciency Lew.
In other LewNews, Jeff at the Air Vent says:
…I took Lewandowsky’s survey over at WUWT for entertainment and couldn’t mark any of the conspiracies listed as things I believe. Most of them were complete nonsense, some of which I hadn’t even heard of. Others seem plausible but I don’t have enough knowledge on any of them to claim ‘belief’ at any level. In other words, I had straight negatives for all of his “conspiracy” answers. Aside from the now-obvious fake answers that Steve McIntyre and others identified, the types of conspiracy questions seem to give the study a little more credibility. However, due to the leading nature of the non-conspiracy oriented questions, I am certain that I would have dropped the survey part way in simply to avoid supporting the undisguised intent of the questions. In other words, it seems highly unlikely that the survey attracted many thoughtful climate skeptics.
Yesterday though, we found out from Steve McIntyre that the math of the study was bodged so badly that simple analysis REVERSES the conclusions of the paper.
If we weren’t so familiar with this sort of faked result from the catastrophic-warming-so-we-must-shut-down-our-economy advocates, you might not even believe it were true. At this time, I have no belief that Lewandowsky intends to be a scientist on the matter, but lets see if he offers appropriate retractions – starting with the title.
Anti-green blogs this:
A psychologist who appears to know nothing about science
I spent 20 years getting 200+ papers published in the academic journals which pointed out how unscientific existing psychological research was so I am not too surprised by Stephan Lewandowsky — who as well as being an academic psychologist is also a frantic Warmist.
He has a track record of “psychologizing” climate skeptics. That you have to be psychologically defective to reject warming is his theme. Leftist psychologists have been doing much the same for at least 6 decades to my knowledge but their only real success would appear to have been in convincing one-another. It makes their little bubble-world more comfortable to believe such things
Speaking of unscientific psychological research, there’s this new article about that very subject in the Guardian:
False positives: fraud and misconduct are threatening scientific research
High-profile cases and modern technology are putting scientific deceit under the microscope
Unfortunately, Lewandowsky’s deceit isn’t listed (yet), but there is this:
The questions are certainly intriguing, but unfortunately for anyone wanting truthful answers, some of Smeesters’ work turned out to be fraudulent. The psychologist, who admitted “massaging” the data in some of his papers, resigned from his position in June after being investigated by his university, which had been tipped off by Uri Simonsohn from the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. Simonsohn carried out an independent analysis of the data and was suspicious of how perfect many of Smeesters’ results seemed when, statistically speaking, there should have been more variation in his measurements.
The case, which led to two scientific papers being retracted, came on the heels of an even bigger fraud, uncovered last year, perpetrated by the Dutch psychologist Diederik Stapel. He was found to have fabricated data for years and published it in at least 30 peer-reviewed papers, including a report in the journal Science about how untidy environments may encourage discrimination.
The cases have sent shockwaves through a discipline that was already facing serious questions about plagiarism.
“In many respects, psychology is at a crossroads – the decisions we take now will determine whether or not it remains a serious, credible, scientific discipline along with the harder sciences,” says Chris Chambers, a psychologist at Cardiff University.
“We have to be open about the problems that exist in psychology and understand that, though they’re not unique to psychology, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be addressing them. If we do that, we can end up leading the other sciences rather than following them.”
Cases of scientific misconduct tend to hit the headlines precisely because scientists are supposed to occupy a moral high ground when it comes to the search for truth about nature. The scientific method developed as a way to weed out human bias. But scientists, like anyone else, can be prone to bias in their bid for a place in the history books.
…
The field of psychology has come under particular scrutiny because many results in the scientific literature defy replication by other researchers. Critics say it is too easy to publish psychology papers which rely on sample sizes that are too small, for example, or to publish only those results that support a favoured hypothesis. Outright fraud is almost certainly just a small part of that problem, but high-profile examples have exposed a greyer area of bad or lazy scientific practice that many had preferred to brush under the carpet.
Many scientists, aided by software and statistical techniques to catch cheats, are now speaking up, calling on colleagues to put their houses in order.
That’s what we’ve been doing with Dr. Lewandowsky. So far the journal author has been silent. I asked Psychological Science editor Robert V. Kail to investigate this paper, as did others. Crickets.
Perhaps he needs to be reminded of the track record above.
In other news, the sister website to Lewandowsky’s psy-ops efforts, Skeptical Science is the subject of some satire by Bob Tisdale today for their serial deletion panic:
…it’s their idea of comedy.
But, this bit of news about Skeptical Science isn’t so funny. Originally I had not planned to make notice of this, but instead sent a courtesy note to one of the authors of SkS that I have corresponded with in the past. What I got back was venom, and not even a hint of remorse for the behavior. So I’ve decided that since that SkS author has no shame, I’d make this latest PopTech expose’ known here:
It is even worse than Phil Jones famous quote in Climategate 1 on the death of John L. Daly:
In an odd way this is cheering news !
Integrity is best demonstrated by what is said when people you don’t care for aren’t looking. As has been repeatedly demonstrated by words and deeds, the proprietors and authors at ‘Skeptical Science’ have no integrity nor compassion.
UPDATE: Steve McIntyre finds more evidence of malfeasance in the Lewandowsky SkS connection here:
http://climateaudit.org/2012/09/14/the-sks-link-to-the-lewandowsky-survey/
He writes:
The relevant posts at six of the blogs have been located, but the relevant post at SkS, either no longer exists or never existed. Today’s question: did John Cook destroy all evidence at the SkS site of the existence of his posting the Lewandowsky thread? if so, why? Or are the claims by Cook and Lewandowsky to have posted the link untrue?
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Someone less biased (prejudiced) than Lewandowsky might also notice that the CYAIDS and CYOKLA conspiracies are held disproportionately by warmists (the former only by warmists), after Steve McIntyre’s initial re-calibration of the data. Maybe that’s what the title of the paper should highlight, or a combination of left/right but not the concocted “moon landing” connection which is not justified by the data.
This comment is about the content and balance of the list of questions, before data analysis is attempted. I haven’t seen much discussion of whether the list of “conspiracy” questions itself may have produced any unrepresentative results, i.e., how does one know what an optimal list of questions would be for analyzing “conspiracy ideation” scientifically?
Also, what is the effect of the particular list of conspiracies he included vs. excluded? I recall seeing that he collected responses on an “Iraq WMD” question (whether the war was over something other than WMD) but has withheld the results?? Anyone know what is going on with that issue and why he withheld that data, if indeed that is the case? I have seen that such a question was asked but that we don’t seem to have data on the responses. He seems to have avoided conspiracy questions that would be more likely to collect the more left-wing warmists as counterparts to the more libertarian free market skeptics (I am well aware that libertarians don’t fall readily into the traditional left-right spectrum). I’m simply asking whether Lewandowsky’s questions are “scientific” and objective in relation to various political/socio/ideological frames that may exist, or does the specific set of questions tend to skew results away from “left wing conspiracy ideation”?
I can imagine a couple of conspiracy questions which the warmists would be much more likely to answer in the affirmative (given that there is indeed some amount of political/ideological split). Various “left wing” conspiracy theories which have kicked around which would likely look different for the “warmist” profile, e.g., Bush-Blair-Cheney secretly conspired to invade Iraq KNOWING there were no WMDs to be found, George W. Bush specifically allowed the 911 attacks to occur (a leftist variant of the “Truther” conspiracy view), the Bush admin. specifically allowed New Orleans to be devastated by Hurriane Katrina (a variant of this was propounded in a comment on Real Climate by no less than RC co-founder Ray Pierrehumbert, to the effect that the Bush admin. specifically neglected the levies when 8 years of Clinton/Gore and many years of local/state Democratic officials were held blameless), etc.
In general, I can’t see that Lewandowsky et al have given any rigorous attention to analyzing what cognitions about “conspiracy ideation” may be or how a survey could really account for different forms and aspects of it. They just wanted a quick n dirty propaganda meme, and got it.
That Rabett clown has been around for years. Once I caught him running off at the mouth on some forum and gave him a chewing out. It was like I had caught someone making a t.v. show. He was glad to have a reason to REFER TO HIMSELF: no $#!+: in THE THIRD PERSON.
I knew then the disgustingly stupid parameters a ‘climate activist’ would be found existing under.
Past stupid, [snip – OTT ~mod]
One of the more bizarre aspects of Lewandowsky’s paper is his inclusion of the “911 truther” conspiracy.
When Adam Corner, Cardiff University “climate psychologist” and Green Party activist, launched the paper in the UK with an article in the Guardian, his opening paragraph was:- “It’s time to come clean: climate change is a hoax. And the moon landings were faked, 9/11 was an inside job, and the CIA is hiding the identity of the gunman on the grassy knoll.”
I made the point to Corner at the time that most of the “truther” fraternity, in the UK at least, were to found among extreme left wing & environmentalist commentators in the Guardian itself.
An hour’s casual googling reveals numerous links between Adam’s fellow green activists and the “truther” movement.
Only this month, US Green Party Congressional Candidate Carol Brouillet described herself as – Cofounder of the International Media Project, the Who’s Counting Project, the 9/11 Truth Alliance, and the Northern California 9/11 Truth Alliance, Carol is a leading veteran-war and anti-globalization activist and widely considered a leading guru in the 9/11 Truth Movement
In 2009 The US Green Party also issued a statement calling on the the Obama administration’s former ‘green jobs’ advisor Van Jones to leave the Democrats and switch to the Greens, using the argument that, among Greens, Jones, “need not apologise for questioning the behaviour of the Bush administration in connection with the 9/11 attacks”.
In 2008, the US Green Party Presidential Candidate Cynthia McKinney campaigned on the slogan “The only 911 truth candidate for President”
In 2010 Canadian Green Party Ottawa South Candidate, Qais Ghanem , was a conspiracy theorist who believed that the 9/11 attacks were an inside job perpetrated by U.S. government agents.
In 2008 US Green Party candidate in Crawford Texas, Byron De Lear, said We could be facing the biggest cover-up and the biggest crime of our century in regard to 9/11 and what’s going on here.
Of course, all political movements have their mavericks and the above could be all dismissed as publicity hungry political opportunists.
I mean you wouldn’t find a serious, respected award winning climate scientist espousing such a wacky conspiracy theory – or would you?
Pieter Tans, senior NOAA scientist in charge of monitoring CO2 levels at Monau Loa is, like many of his colleagues, a bit of a green activist. When he’s not fulfilling his important scientific work, monitoring possibly the most important single metric in all of climate science – he’s often to be found flying around the world, making impassioned speeches about the need for the rest of us to rein in our carbon footprints.
But Pieter has some more exotic political views as well – in 2006 he signed this obituary letter, in a Boulder Colorado newspaper, for a deceased colleague which includes an invitation to a “911 truther” event and makes it quite clear that all the signatories were active in the movement:-
RIP
World has lost a true, humble friend
The world has lost a true friend in Gilbert White, winner of the 2000 National Medal of Science, natural resource adviser to FDR, ecologist before the word existed, president of Haverford College, social scientist and much else he was too humble to mention.
Gil was a fearless thinker who supported ideas that were before their time, such as the project at Vote.org and ideas that many ridicule or fear, such as evidence that a few people in our government allowed or caused the 9/11 attacks. He’s the eldest in the Oct. 21, 2004, Boulder Weekly photo with us, attending a 9/11 Truth event, although we weren’t identified — see Boulderweekly.com/archive/102104/coverstory.html. At lunch afterward, he expressed surprise and frustration that the media simply refused to make this an issue in the coming presidential election.
Gil was pretty sure that 9/11 was treason partly because, when he was working in the FDR White House, he witnessed the congratulatory atmosphere there the day of Pearl Harbor. He believed the government had invited the attack to get people’s support to enter World War II, and that something similar happened to get Congress’ (not the people’s) support for the Bush wars.
Gilbert could have been a member of almost any elite, but he preferred non-elitists. He believed in giving power to the people rather than keeping it in the hands of any elite. He hoped that when people learned that the government was complicit in 9/11 that they’d demand the kind of participatory government you can help realize at Vote.org. That’s why we risk accusations of sullying the dead by writing this.
Steven Jones, BYU Physics professor suspended for his work with Physics911.net, and Kevin Ryan, fired from Underwriters Laboratories for speaking out, will speak Oct. 29 from 2 to 6 p.m. in CU’s Math 100, along with the founder of the Muslim-Jewish-Christian Alliance for 9/11 Truth, Kevin Barrett, Ph.D.
EVAN RAVITZ, ROBERT McFARLAND, PIETER TANS and MARTIN WALTER
It’s quite clear that, although it’s quite hard to find any real evidence of climate sceptics involved in this particular conspiracy – it is widely rooted in the green movement, extending to at least one highly regarded climate scientist.
Lewandowsky and his British mini-me Corner are both active in environmental politics and it is inconceivable that they were not aware of this.
They made a completely dishonest attempt to project an unsavoury aspect of their own movement onto their opponents.
Shameful.
Skiphil … that analysis – from 2010 – almost perfectly conforms to the huge number of criticisms received regarding the re-created Lweandowsky survey, posted here and in the comments for the survey
I read somewhere today – here I believe – that a UAW staffer, with some experience in the matter, took the test and contacted Mr. Hanich about the poor;y constructed answers. As I remember it the response was the questions were from other surveys and were well understood and they had no interest in changing them.
It’s worth quoting (below) the Richard Allcock comment on this thread if I may, since he posted it on the census thread where there is not supposed to be any discussion. btw, looking at the UWA website it appears that Allcock is not any random admin asst (nothing against them really!) but a highly accomplished prof in biomedical sciences, specializing in genetics and genome research.
So Hanich and Lew (hard to imagine Lew wouldn’t have received that feedback via Hanich, although that’s another question) had highly critical feedback from an accomplished scientist in their own university. Of course by the time the link was circulated to UWA staff they may have thought they were nearing the end of their collection of data, but that does not give any scientific excuse for ignoring powerful objections from a colleague and highly competent scientist surely far more expert in real research methodologies and data analysis than either Lew or Hanich (ooooh but they are…. psychologists and know about psychometrics!).
Here is what Prof. Allcock said on the census thread:
Just had a look at Lew’s site and I found this…I kid you not….
Quote:
“This Theory of Mind is a collection of beliefs of what other people believe or know, what they want, and how they most likely will act. If you have ever sat next to someone on a plane who’s telling you all about Barney’s last summer holiday, oblivious to the fact that you’ve never met or heard of Barney before, then you will understand the importance of a Theory of Mind and how its integrity is central to human interaction.
What does this have to do with our recent paper on the motivated rejection of science?”
Yes, this dazzling prose, dense with complex meaning, filled with stunning insights, brimming with profundity is what you get when governments funnel $1.7 million dollars into Warmist Drivel™.
Skiphill:
according to Prof Lewandowsky, in a slide show.. slide 19
(Sept 2010, seemingly on this survey results n=1100)
http://www.monash.edu.au/research/sustainability-institute/assets/documents/seminars/msi-seminar_10-09-23_lewandowsky_presentation.pdf
.
WMD was a negative correlation for ‘climate conspiracy’
I wonder how much a positive correlation it was for ‘pro-science’ blog readers 😉 !
even the locals didn’t think the ‘deniers’ would fall for such a transparent survey…
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/08/28/survey-says/#comment-44097
“Yeah, those conspiracy theory questions were pretty funny, but does anyone think that hardcore deniers are going to be fooled by such a transparent attempt to paint them as paranoids?”
Some of the locals at Tamino’s gave up on it as well!!
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/08/28/survey-says/#comment-44060
Siloch:
Qu. 2 of the above survey is as follows:
“I support the free-market system, but not at the expense of the environmental quality”
The respondent is asked if he/she agrees or disagrees with this statement.
If the respondent disagrees it could mean:
1. “I do not support the free-market system”
or
2. “I support the free-market system and don’t give a toss about environmental quality.”
I got as far as question 2. and decided not to continue.
* Robert * at Tamino’s ! 😉 (survey so badly done, telegraphed to participants)
Robert | August 28, 2010 at 4:48 pm |
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/08/28/survey-says/#comment-44064
I guess they’re trying to use those survey questions to identify the nuts haha… All those conspiracy ones were a bit ridiculous (with the exception of iraq not being for WMDs, which is pretty obvious) although I do have to say the JFK lone gunman one is the only one i’m a little unsure about.
What’s the survey being used for?
«More than ever our citizens and the new world order need an active and influential Europe.»
José Barroso, President of the European Commission, 12 September 2012, State of the Union 2012 Address
What the hell is he taking about? Is he a skeptic?
Barry Woods says:
September 15, 2012 at 5:39 am
WMD was a negative correlation for ‘climate conspiracy’
I wonder how much a positive correlation it was for ‘pro-science’ blog readers 😉 !
================================================================
Barry Woods, yes, I keep wondering why the data on the WMD/Iraq question has been withheld, probably because it does not fit the “narrative”??
In my lifetime (anecdotally) I have mainly seen “conspiracist ideation” from the political left, much more aligned with alarmist/warmist views. It is fascinating the Lew & co. manage not to notice that phenomenon AT ALL.
He has a track record of “psychologizing” climate skeptics. That you have to be psychologically defective to reject warming is his theme.
Tim Clark: B.S., M.S., PhD (Psychologically Defective)
Looks great on my resume .Always wondered what all those letters stood for.
In my opinion, based on the large database of responses from the re-created survey, the WMD question was withheld because it offered no support for their conclusions
I believe it is likely that the author simply believed the false claim that the war was started only because of the threat of WMD’s – which is demonstrably false. As such they expected a similar vote to other conspiracy theories – that most would vote false. The respondents knew the truth and voted accordingly
At that point it is directly opposite of all other conspiracy response patterns. It will be very interesting to see how the conclusions change when it is included.
A.Scott. I have enjoyed reading what you have posted here. Hopefully you can understand my apprehension on the thread containing your reconstructed survey. I have watched over and over the underhanded tactics used to smear and discredit my father (and all skeptics now). Fake interviews, quoting out of context, deliberate attempts to tie him up legally, twisting of words, etc. The list goes on. I have thrown up defensive perimeters on all fronts and watch closely all who post. If one looks, you can recognize wording specific to warmist doctrine. I am not fully open yet, but see honest intent here.
Many do not realize the extent to which some will go to further “the cause”. I do. I would love to be a “peace-nik”, but I know full well that there are those out there who wish harm on us for not falling in line. I am ready for the discussion to become “heated”, if you’ll pardon the pun, but I am hopeful that it will never come to that. They have become increasingly desperate of late.
David – thanks – some interesting things to come I’d guess.
Barry W – that link is pretty astounding, or scary – actually both:
http://www.monash.edu.au/research/sustainability-institute/assets/documents/seminars/msi-seminar_10-09-23_lewandowsky_presentation.pdf
In it is the evidence what Lewandowsky’s belief about the WMD question is:
He believes the internet falsehood that WMD’s were the reason to invade Iraq, conflating his belief to official fact. It is nothing of the sort – and the responses to the question convincingly and clearly show people know that.
That WMD’s were the reason to enter the Iraq war is itself a conspiracy theory. Concern over WMD’s was an important concern – but far from the only part. The media and other war haters have pounded on it incessantly but that does not make it true.
The “Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002” – subsequently the “Iraq War Resolution” was the authorizing document passed with strong bipartisan consent in Oct 2002.
A simple read of Wiki shows the resolution contained a myriad of legitimate reasons, including WMD concerns, for the authorization to take military action in Iraq:
+Iraq’s noncompliance with the conditions of the 1991 ceasefire agreement, including interference with U.N. weapons inspectors.
+Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction, and programs to develop such weapons, posed a “threat to the national security of the United States and international peace and security in the Persian Gulf region.”
+Iraq’s “brutal repression of its civilian population.”
+Iraq’s “capability and willingness to use weapons of mass destruction against other nations and its own people”.
+Iraq’s hostility towards the United States as demonstrated by the 1993 assassination attempt on former President George H. W. Bush and firing on coalition aircraft enforcing the no-fly zones following the 1991 Gulf War.
+Members of al-Qaeda, an organization bearing responsibility for attacks on the United States, its citizens, and interests, including the attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, are known to be in Iraq.
+Iraq’s “continu[ing] to aid and harbor other international terrorist organizations,” including anti-United States terrorist organizations.
+Iraq paid bounty to families of suicide bombers.
+The efforts by the Congress and the President to fight terrorists, and those who aided or harbored them.
+The authorization by the Constitution and the Congress for the President to fight anti-United States terrorism.
+The governments in Turkey, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia feared Saddam and wanted him removed from power.
+Citing the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998, the resolution reiterated that it should be the policy of the United States to remove the Saddam Hussein regime and promote a democratic replacement.
Its is my opinion, based on the large response we saw to this question, Lewandowsky by all appearances believed the conspiracy theory was true. And that respondents would vote as they did for other conspiracy theories – almost entirely one sided.
When they did not the WMD question was quietly removed from the results..