New easy to use reference book for El Niño and global warming

I think readers will appreciate the point by point style that this book is written in. It enables you to zero in on argument rebuttals with graphs and data. Highly recommended – Anthony

Also see Roger Pielke Sr.’s Announcement and TallBloke’s Book Review of “Who Turned on the Heat – The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation”

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Bob Tisdale announces: This Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing.

Cover – Who Turned on the Heat?

Have you searched the web, looking for information about La Niña and her big brother El Niño? You know, those colossal cooling and warming events in the tropical Pacific that cause flooding in some parts of the world, drought in others—heat waves here, cold spells there—blizzards and record snowfall in your driveway, but a snow-free winter at your favorite ski resort. Yup, those El Niño and La Niña. Scientists have given them that highfalutin name El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short. Then, if you make a mistake and spell it ENZO with a “Z” in your search engine, you wind up watching a video from BBC’s Top Gear, of Jeremy Clarkson and The Stig driving a Ferrari F60 owned by Pink Floyd drummer Nick Mason in exchange for plugging Nick’s book. That’s a nice diversion, though. As your search continues, you keep finding technical web pages with very similar overviews, and, if you’re lucky, three schematics: one for El Niño conditions, one for La Niña and one for ENSO-neutral or “normal” conditions. Frustratingly, those three illustrations look the same to you, leaving you scratching your head. No matter where you turn, what you read, you still have no idea what they’re talking about. But you still want to know what those blasted El Niño and La Niña things are all about.

Who Turned on the Heat? begins with 29, not 3, cartoon-like illustrations, with text right there on the drawings, that explain the processes of ENSO with easy-to-understand terms.

After presenting some background information at the beginning of that section, the discussions of ENSO start with “normal” (a.k.a. ENSO-neutral) conditions in the tropical Pacific, then move on to the transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño with an overview of what causes the El Niño to begin. That’s where the free Preview of that section ends. In the book, it continues with a presentation of El Niño conditions and the transition back to ENSO-neutral, then on to La Niña and eventually back ENSO-neutral again, providing readers with a complete overview of the ENSO phases in sequence. It discusses how La Niña is not the opposite of El Niño. The phases all fit together logically. Mother Nature’s pretty good about things like that, but she still has some tricks up her sleeves.

For those readers who haven’t looked at or read anything technical since high school, the next section discusses very basics things like how to read a graph. It presents the types of graphs used throughout the rest of the book, and a bunch of other introductory topics.

Section 3 of Who Turned on the Heat? is a more detailed overview of the phases of ENSO—it includes graphs of satellite-based sea surface temperature and other variables, color-coded maps, links to animations—all of which are furnished to support and confirm the naturally fueled processes of the ENSO-neutral, El Niño and La Niña phases. In other words, the fundamentals of ENSO are presented and documented in detail. That’s followed by a section that discusses topics that are still related to El Niño and La Niña but are beyond the basics, like what actually triggers an El Niño. Did you know that El Niño events are so big that sometimes it takes a couple of tropical cyclones (yup, the same things as hurricanes) in the western tropical Pacific just to kick-start one?

What may become your favorite section of Who Turned on the Heat? is next. In it, the sea surface temperature data presents how it accounts for global warming. The combined long-term effects of major El Niño and La Niña events are presented, discussed and documented—with satellite-based sea surface temperatures data, not climate models. Major El Niño and La Niña events are not like the smaller ones. Far from it. The big ones are responsible for the vast majority of the natural warming of the global sea surface temperatures for the past 30 years.

Yup. You’re right, that’s the time the climate models used by the IPCC say that only greenhouse gases could have caused the warming. Those scientists, who must have their heads immersed in climate models, apparently haven’t bothered to come out into the real world long enough to examine the sea surface temperature records for the last 3 decades. If they had, they’d find the data doesn’t agree with the models. All the modelers would have had to do is divide the global oceans into 3 logical subsets. Then they could see why sea surface temperatures have warmed and that Mother Nature’s two rambunctious children La Niña and El Niño were the primary natural culprits. Logically, those energetic natural siblings can explain most of the warming of land surface air temperatures, too, since temperatures there simply mimic and exaggerate the short- and long-term variations in sea surface temperatures. Of course, anthropogenic global warming exists; that is, there’s a small part of the land surface air temperature warming that can’t be explained by the natural warming of sea surfaces, and that small portion is likely manmade, with a host of contributing factors. But back to the oceans: natural variables can also explain their warming to depths of 700 meters—a dataset called Ocean Heat Content.

That would have been a great section on which to end Who Turned on the Heat?

– However –

Who Turned on the Heat? continues with three more sections. One presents links to additional animations so that you can watch the cumulative effects of an El Niño and La Niña as they took place. Remember, La Niña is not the opposite of El Niño—there are some not-so-subtle differences between the two phases. The next section presents the myths and failed arguments that proponents of manmade global warming have created to try to downplay the long-term effects of major El Niño and La Niña events. The last section is Q&A. Take a look at the Preview of Who Turned on the Heat? Scroll down through the Table of Contents.

Who Turned on the Heat? weighs in at a whopping 550+ pages, about 110,000+ words. It contains somewhere in the neighborhood of 380 color illustrations. In pdf form, it’s about 23MB. It includes links to more than a dozen animations, which allow the reader to view ENSO processes and the interactions between variables.

After reading Who Turned on the Heat? you should have a better understanding of El Niño and La Niña—AND—you should understand why global surface temperatures warm during multidecadal periods when El Niño events are stronger, occur more often and endure longer than La Niña events. The most recent period with ENSO conditions weighted toward the El Niño phase started in the late 1970s, and it’s no coincidence that global surface temperatures have warmed since then. Also not by coincidence, La Niña events dominated ENSO, but just a little bit, from the mid-1940s to the late-1970s, and global surface temperatures cooled slightly. Why did surface temperatures warm from the late 1910s to the mid-1940s? Yup, ENSO was skewed toward El Niño during that period, too.

Further to that, as you’ll find, this book clearly illustrates and describes the following:

1. Sea surface temperature data for the past 30 years show the global oceans have warmed. There is, however, no evidence the warming was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases in part or in whole; that is, the warming can be explained by natural ocean-atmosphere processes, primarily ENSO.

2. The global oceans have not warmed as hindcast and projected by the climate models maintained in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives, which were used, and are being used, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for their 4th and upcoming 5thAssessment Reports; in other words, the models cannot and do not simulate the warming rates or spatial patterns of the warming of the global oceans—even after decades of modeling efforts.

3. Based on the preceding two points, the climate models in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives show no skill at being able to simulate how and why global surface temperatures warmed; that is, the climate models presented in the IPCC’s 4th and upcoming 5thAssessment Reports would provide little to no value as tools for projecting future climate change on global and regional levels.

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The book is:

Who Turned on the Heat? – The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation is now on sale in pdf form for US$8.00 Please click here to buy a copy.

Bob Tisdale adds:

For those who would prefer a Kindle edition, I haven’t decided if I’m going to publish it in that format. Due to the massive number of color illustrations, the Kindle edition price would be somewhere close to US$16.00. Personally, I think that’s a little steep for an e-book. And since other electronic versions of a book have to be priced 20% higher than the Kindle edition, that would make the pdf version about US$19.00, and that’s way too high. Right now, US$8.00 sounds like a bargain for an easy-to-read, well-illustrated, well-documented book about El Niño-Southern Oscillation and its long-term effects on global surface temperatures.

Naturally, some readers will think the price is way too low, and they’ll want to pay more for the years of research that went into preparing this book, through a tip or donation to the author. (Wishful thinking on my part.)

If you have any questions about the content, please ask them on any thread at my blog Climate Observations.

Regards,

Bob Tisdale

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Dear Bob. At that price, you’ll have thousands of catastrologists buying the book so they can prove you WRONG, WRONG, WRONG!. You’ll make enough to take a holiday in Hawaii for a fortnight every week. I’ll buy a copy as soon as the site loads, which atm it is refusing to do. Must have collapsed under the custom. All the best.

Juraj V

I bought it and look forward to go through.

Thanks, Anthony.

Bargain of the millenium.

Jeff D.

Nice explanation of the process Bob. Even a novice like myself can understand the basic concept of how and why the cycle happens.
Well done and good luck!

GlynnMhor

Then we come to the $64,000 question, what drives the changes in ENSO balance between nina and nino?

Philip Mulholland

Information about El Niño?
This from Billy Kessler
Oceanographer
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory / NOAA
Seattle
Frequently-(well, at least once)-asked-questions about El Niño
This page gives answers I have written to many different people asking about El Niño. Many of them came in during the excitment about the big El Niño of 1997-98, but with another (weaker) event in December 2002, interest rose again. All the questions came from real people; no plants or shills. Some of the answers go over the same ground, and they’re not in any particular order. But maybe you can find what you’re looking for here. Anybody who is interested in this subject should definitely check out the PMEL El Niño theme page, which gives access to realtime data and many links and discussions about El Niño, including a more complete FAQ page. The answers here tend to be in more depth, though.
“Your tax dollars at work”
http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/occasionally-asked-questions.html

Bob
what is the relationship between ENSO and the jet stream which appears to be the end product that actually directly affects our weather?
tonyb

Philip Mulholland: Thanks for bringing up Bill Kessler’s “Occasionally Asked Questions” webpage. It provides a great general description of ENSO. It’s linked in the text of my book for his chicken-and-egg discussion of trade winds and sea surface temperatures and, once more, at the end of Section 3, under the heading of “Further Reading”. Unfortunately, that NOAA/PMEL webpage is very light on visual references.
My book goes into more detail with multiple cartoon-like illustrations for the interactions between the variables for each of the three basic phases and for the transitions between them, discussions of East Pacific vs West Pacific El Nino, How El Niño and La Niña are not opposites, and the like. I then reinforce that with data in Section 3. All of that should make ENSO much easier to understand.

Ally E.

Hi Bob. May I suggest you do the Kindle version as well? Those who think it too expensive will still have the option of PDF, so it’s not going to upset them any, and you’ll reach a larger audience by including those who prefer Kindle. For a technical book – and a nice meaty one at that – a higher price is perfectly acceptable.

pat

anthony, CSIRO doesn’t think science should be questioned:
5 Sept: News.com.au: AAP: Science itself is being questioned: CSIRO
SCIENTISTS need to communicate with the Australian public to be heard above the voices challenging their research, the head of the national science agency says.
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) chief executive Dr Megan Clark says scientists these days are working in a “fundamentally different” environment that makes it difficult for them to properly inform public debate.
Scientists whose work was subject to peer reviewing and vigorous benchmarks for integrity were being challenged by research posted online that met no such standards, she said…
“We are in a world where science itself is being questioned,” Dr Clark told the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday.
“Scientific evidence is often referred to as a theory, as if a theory is something to be doubted.”…
Science has faced a formidable opponent in the USA, where the creationism movement is lobbying for theories of evolution to be banned from some school curriculums.
But in Australia, despite fierce debate around climate science dominating airwaves, there is still a healthy demand for well-informed information about the issues affecting the country…
She said the CSIRO was taking a step back to ensure it was clearly communicating with the Australian public about the issues “they need to hear about”.
For example, Dr Clark said every two years the CSIRO in conjunction with the Bureau of Meteorology released its State of the Nation’s Climate report to set an agenda for informed debate…
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/science-itself-is-being-questioned-csiro/story-e6frfku9-1226465769902
not only about CAGW:
VIDEO: 5 Sept: ABC: National Press Club: National Press Club: Megan Clark, CSIRO
Duration: 56min 33sec
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-05/national-press-club-megan-clark/4244598
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tonyb says: “what is the relationship between ENSO and the jet stream which appears to be the end product that actually directly affects our weather?”
The locations of the winter jet streams (Northern and Southern Hemispheres) depend on the location of the warm water in the tropical Pacific. Basically, the location of the warm water dictates the location of the convection, cloud cover and precipitation in the tropical Pacific, which impact the location of the jet streams. I use the following NOAA web pages as references for that Chapter. For the “normal” state of winter jet streams:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/meanjet.shtml
For “typical” jet stream response during an El Niño:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/enso_circ.shtml
For “typical” jet stream response during a La Niña:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/lanina_circ.shtml
But I’ve taken the “normal” illustrations and placed them next to the El Niño and the La Niña illustrations for the individual discussions, so that you can see how the jet streams have changed location. You know me: It’s all about visuals.

Ally E. says: “May I suggest you do the Kindle version as well? Those who think it too expensive will still have the option of PDF…”
The problem, Ally: The pdf version has to be priced 20% higher than the Kindle edition. And that doesn’t help.
Regards

GlynnMhor says: “Then we come to the $64,000 question, what drives the changes in ENSO balance between nina and nino?”
Every indication is it’s simply a natural multidecadal variation in the state of the tropical Pacific. I understand there’s yet another paper in the works that confirms this.

punchy title…concise summary….well done, Bob

Andy

We want a Kindle edition.

Thanks, Bob!
And congratulations. This will be an interesting read.
I will post something about it and a link.

Philip Mulholland

Hi Bob,
Thanks for your informative comment.

James Allison

Hi Bob
Happy to pay more for Kindle

LazyTeenager

And do we have an explanation yet why this supposed ENSO process has not already cooked the planet?
After all if it started at some in specified time in the past it should be just getting hotter and hotter and hotter with no limit in sight.
If there is no defined starting or ending point for this supposdd process and there is no reason to suppose the early 21st century is special, then Bob’s hypothesis is really really weak.

Truthseeker

LazyTeenager you are living down to your name. Try reading the book. It has lots of colour pictures so even you should be able to understand some of the content even if the words are too dificult for you …

If you dismiss the impossible ‘subduction of surface heat’ as the ENSO cause, then warming can only come from below. Earth has 2 million cubic miles of Uranium & Thorium under high heat, high pressure and variable particle bombardments. Nodes of concentrated Ur & Th are stirred by a faster rotating Iron cyrstal core and pumped by Lunar Earthtides. As these nodes decay, they are surrounded by elemental gases, allowing them to lift as heavy vegetables in a boiling stew of molten rock, causing variations in heat and pressure. The Earth is impacted by variable amounts of solar and cosmic ray particles and partially protected by a variable magnetosphere. To assume constant, laboratory half-life decay under these conditions is the height of naivete.

Rob JM

Lazy Teenager
The enso process is actually associated with cold and cooling climates. If you look at lake sediments on either side of the the pacific you see more stable weather when its warm and ENSO variability when its cold. I’m still not convinced that ENSO is the driver and not the response
There was a clear decline cloud cover in the mid 90s leading up the 97/98 super el nino.
I sit in the camp whereby the stratosphere drives the Balance between Meridional/zonal climate changes via jet stream. The Stratosphere seems to be driven by two main elements. The Solar UV/ozone cycle and Changes to water vapour driven by large volcanic eruptions. (Volcanoes can inject water vapor into the stratosphere or strip it out with SO2 depending on the chemical makeup of the eruption)

William McClenney

Allright. I hate to do this Bob, but I have to cry foul. I clicked on the Please click here to buy a copy. Got shuttled through to PayPal, made the purchase then got a big nearly empty screen with this in the upper middle:
“The page you were looking for doesn’t exist”
“You may have mistyped the address or the page may have moved”
I think I will go for the first one since I didn’t type anything in except my paypal password. Can I have my money back please?

Faux Science Slayer says: “If you dismiss the impossible ‘subduction of surface heat’ as the ENSO cause, then warming can only come from below….”
ENSO is fueled by downward shirtwave radiation. This has been known for decades.

copernicus34

the kindle version (when added) won’t do this book justice with all the colors on the graphs. although the kindle fire will suffice (LOL). i bought the book today and i’m already 162 pages into it, and its excellent stuff. i’m not a novice by any stretch, but i find Bob’s style to be great for novice and intermediate level superb. i will make this required reading for my high school student is being indoctrinated to earth sciences as we speak. this is simply a must read for anyone remotely interested in this issue.

Pamela Gray

Bob’s patient teachings have corrected so many of my misunderstandings of ENSO data. Like the fact that we all freeze but the oceans warms during a La Nina and we all bake while the ocean cools during El Nino. He also corrected my mistaken understanding of the PDO. It is a statistical derivation of ENSO data (yes?). I look forward to ordering this book in some form. I am hoping it will go into print and then I will definitely order that, even if I already have the ebook.

Bart

“Of course, anthropogenic global warming exists; that is, there’s a small part of the land surface air temperature warming that can’t be explained by the natural warming of sea surfaces, and that small portion is likely manmade, with a host of contributing factors.”
I will be so happy when the farce has completely run its course, and nobody feels the need to genuflect even ever so slightly in the direction of the Lords of AGW. The above presupposes that humans are responsible for increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. We aren’t. It’s temperature driven.
Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus. Ask yourself, if they got the cause of warming wrong, aren’t the odds pretty good they were sloppy in diagnosing the other as well?
Anyway, kudos, Bob. I look forward to reading your work.

Sorry guys, but this reads like Click Here you Idiot.
No doubt the book is very worthy, but I’d much rather read papers than see cartoons. If only the various journals would drop their paywalls and permitted those who pay for the papers to be produced (taxpayers) to have access to them.

William McClenney: I have no idea why you weren’t sent immediately from PayPal to the download webpage at DigitalDeliveryApp. Check your email for transaction receipts. If the transaction went through, there should be one from PayPal, and there should also be one from DigitalDeliverApp. The one from DigitalDeliverApp will have a download link.

William McClenney

We got it worked out. If anyone experiences the problem I did after paying, go to whatever email address your PayPal account is linked to and see if you have a message from the delivery robot.

Derek Sorensen: The book is geared towards readers without heavy-duty science backgrounds. If I was a better animator, I’d make the cartoons move and I’d narrate, I might even try that.

Richard Patton

Check your e-mail for the link. I had the same thing happen and the link in the e-mail worked.
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William McClenney says:
September 5, 2012 at 5:41 pm
Allright. I hate to do this Bob, but I have to cry foul. I clicked on the Please click here to buy a copy. Got shuttled through to PayPal, made the purchase then got a big nearly empty screen with this in the upper middle:
“The page you were looking for doesn’t exist”
“You may have mistyped the address or the page may have moved”
I think I will go for the first one since I didn’t type anything in except my paypal password. Can I have my money back please?

Richard Patton

It would have been real nice if you had bookmarks to each chapter heading. That way we can easily pick back up where we left off.

dalyplanet

Excellent book. Far and away the lowest priced college course I have taken. Well laid out and highly instructive. This also makes it easy to explain to anyone that one may be discussing this with. Very clarifying.

Richard Patton says: “It would have been real nice if you had bookmarks to each chapter heading. That way we can easily pick back up where we left off.”
The Table of Contents should be linked directly to the chapters.

The cover is kinda hard on the eyes. I’m not trying to be critical. Jus sayin.

Bob , I second Pamela Gray as I would love to have a print version . I hate reading on computers . Get it to print somehow so us traditionalists can enjoy it and learn . I pay big bucks for books on horticulture and I would certainly spend the money for the information of which you are speaking .

rogerknights

Bob Tisdale says:
September 5, 2012 at 2:01 pm

Ally E. says: “May I suggest you do the Kindle version as well? Those who think it too expensive will still have the option of PDF…”

The problem, Ally: The pdf version has to be priced 20% higher than the Kindle edition. And that doesn’t help.

That’s only if it is sold through Amazon’s Kindle store. There are independent vendors of Kindle-compatible e-books, like Smashwords and others, who don’t have that restriction. They’ll also do the conversion work from a PDF, for a fee or %, presumably. The downside is that the document isn’t backed up on Amazon’s site.

Jimmy Haigh

I prefer printed books too. Just think of all the carbon sequestered in the paper and ink…

Added to my Amazon ”wish list” though they hate any book that is not alarmist in nature.

Please note that a couple of typos have been found so far. Refer to “Who Turned on the Heat?” Typos.

Thank you to all who have purchased “Who Turned on the Heat?” Tell you friends, family, weatherpersons, local politicians. We’ve just started the ball rolling,

NZPete

Brilliant! After a quick look at the sample file bought the PDF, read through Section 1 and in 30 minutes my understanding of ENSO has gone up by a factor of ten. Well done Bob Tisdale. Such an elegant, rational and sensible explanation of the real mechanics at work. I’m most impressed.

Mick

Just bought the book (pdf) but it is not letting me save it on my computer as a pdf. How do I save it to keep for reading later?

Mick: Check your email for a receipt from DigitalDeliveryApp, then try to “right click and save as” on the linked webpage. If that doesn’t work, leave a comment at my blog so that I can retreve your email address. We’ll remedy the problem through email,

Laurie Bowen
jorgekafkazar

IMHO, Bob Tisdale is one of the top ten posters on WUWT. Based on the sample pages, this book should be in the library of every serious climate enquirer. Well done, Bob.

I would like to back Pamela’s request for a print version. I will buy the PDF version as you have increased my understanding of ENSO processes immeasurably (particularly your articles delinking El Nino and La Nina from global warming), and I will gladly add a donation, but I find it difficult to read longer articles online. And I suppose a printout would not be a great idea with my black-and-white printer!
Thanks for all your contributions to knowledge, Bob!

vigilantfish

Not sure if this comment went through the first time –
I would like to back Pamela’s request for a print version. I will buy the PDF version as you have increased my understanding of ENSO processes immeasurably (particularly your articles delinking El Nino and La Nina from global warming), and I will gladly add a donation, but I find it difficult to read longer articles online. And I suppose a printout would not be a great idea with my black-and-white printer!
Thanks for all your contributions to knowledge, Bob!