After battling the “dry” tropical air along its route from Haiti, Cuba, Florida, to Louisiana, Isaac has finally become a hurricane with the required 64+ knots 1-minute sustained near-surface winds. Numerical models finally expressed some certainty on a Louisiana coastal landfall, but diverged significantly on intensity. There is also some question about the ability of Isaac to penetrate far inland away from the frictionally convergent swamps. A major flood event is underway.
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NHC:
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http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/tropical-cyclone/
Poptech Said: … I have never seen so many people desperately wanting this to be like Katrina.
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This is very true, even in the UK they are talking about a Katrina level event.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19403905
I believe they are praying for another Katrina level event to ‘prove’ their warming case. So if someone’s shed roof blows off in the wind, expect the world media in your driveway.
J. Philip Peterson says:
“That’s interesting. The initial report for 11:00 AM was 70 mph sustained winds and gusts to 85. Now the 11 AM report has been changed to 75 sustained & 85 gusts. Guess they are trying to keep people from being complacent. Or maybe they just have to call this hurricane Isaac no mater what.”
Yes. I think they wanted the size and expected surge to motivate people. Last update was about how dropsondes and corrected SFMR didn’t correlate to upper level measurements, etc, etc. The update had no mention about what changed, just that the intensity was updated. I suspect for the meteorologist, the wind speed estimate is within the margin of error. The category designation is more political so I suspect that the political types convinced the meteorologist types to up their windspeed within their margin. I suspect future investigations will be postponed until landfall so it can be maintained as a hurricane. They always go back and adjust ACE index anyway so this is purely to get the attention of the media and people to respect it. Flooding could be significant even if wind damage is not.
BY DAVE BARRY
TAMPA — Potential Hurricane Isaac ravaged the Tampa Bay area Monday, slamming the coast with winds that sometimes approached the speed of a fully loaded forklift and leaving a trail of devastation in the form of water that occasionally fell from the sky and got things wet.
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/27/2970534/dave-barry-gop-convention-delegates.html#moreb#storylink=cpy
Roger – from the BBC at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19403905
“Hurricane Isaac boasting winds of at least 75mph (120km/h), is likely to make landfall by Tuesday night”
and
“In an update at 13:00 CDT (18:00 GMT) the National Hurricane Center said the storm was 135 miles (220km) south-east of New Orleans, moving north-west at 10mph (17km/h).”
No trace whatsoever of your 175 Kilometres per hour. All measurements given in miles as the primary units, kilometres as secondary. You may have some valid grounds for criticising the BBC at times but not this time.
@ur momisugly J. Peterson: “eat my words”
Belly up to the bar, J.
If you do research on most expensive storms in this nation’s history, you’ll find Tropical Storm Allison that doubled back on Houston in June 6-7, 2001, stalled and dumped 20 inches of rain in some places. Greater than $5 billion in damage, 70,000 homes flooded.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/allison2001.html
Thanks to Allison, much of Houston’s underground is now equipped with water-tight doors in strategic places.
Allison is the only Atlantic tropical storm to have its name retired without ever having reached hurricane strength. – Wikipedia
Watching WWLTV.com for local New Orleans coverage. Seem to be concerned with power outages and people around the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain. Don’t seem to be too concerned with potential flooding from the levies. Some entire neighborhoods are 7 ft below sea level. Noticed in the Google street views that at least 90% of the homes flooded from Katrina have been restored or rebuilt. Very few are on stilts.
I’m in Mobile. It’s not even raining. The sun is out. Schools and businesses closed here yesterday, today and tomorrow. What a waste of money and efficiency. Hurricane Isaac? More like Dry Heave Isaac…..
I think that this one should be renamed Hurricane Ignatius in honor of a Confederacy of Dunces. Just sayin’!
There is some confusion over at NHC. The latest “Discussion” still calls Isaac a tropical storm; but the “advisory” calls it a hurricane by going up to 75 mph at the surface. This is one mph over the 74 mph threshold for hurricane catergory 1. There may be some insurance or government freebie that triggers if the NHC calls Isaac a hurricane vs a tropical storm. In any event, why doesn’t NHC give the public a clear explanation of the upgrade?
Hey, Poptech. Should we not rebuild San Francisco or Memphis when they are destroyed by inevitable earthquakes? Are the people of Seatle idiots for living in the shadow of a volcano? Galveston and Pensacola are built on barrier islands. How stupid are they? Have you ever studied the levee system around Sacremento? What fool decided to build cities where tornados roam every year?
Hurricanes hit all up and down the east and gulf coasts, and almost every city from Brownsville to Providence has been decimated by a hurricane at one time or another. . The federal government will help rebuild all these cites when they are destroyed by natural disasters. What is it with cretins like you and your obsession with wishing New Orleans would just go away? Do you live someplace that is immune to nature’s wrath? Do you think about the things you spout off about?
OK, some of you folks in the mid west wish you could get some rain from Isaac. Others from the gulf wish you could get less than you are likely to get which may be on the order of a foot and a half. I am working on a model to solve both desires. It will be based on the “climate change” temperature models. It will use a slightly modified gridded data source.
It will work like this:
I will use a gridded averaging model technique. Rather than actual measured data it will project gridded data results 1200 kilometers to the north. Instead of flooding the mid west (data) with the same amount of rain received along the gulf coast, the modified model will average (well known technique in “climate science”) the rain at the coast (say 18″) with the mid west (say a trace) and the resulting model will give the mid west 9″ of rain and the gulf coast will only get 9″. See, everyone is happy. It’s the AVERAGE that really matters. What’s the problem with this model?
Louise – I can assure you that 24 hours ago they were saying 175 Kilometres whilst showing a projected track along the Florida gulf seaboard and clipping Tampa on the way.
I made particular note bacause although by inclination a francophile, I resent the BBC continually trying to normalise the use of a measuring system that lacks affinity with the human form and condition.
And now I’m off for 660 centilitres of beer to wash down my 454 grams of sirloin steak……………….
[Snip. Gratuitous blanket insult of WUWT readers. ~dbs, mod.]
Here’s an interesting interactive graphic showing the timeline of flooding from Katrina over a 24 hour period:
http://www.nola.com/katrina/graphics/flashflood.swf
“””””…..u.k.(us) says:
August 27, 2012 at 8:44 pm
george e smith says:
August 27, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Well at least we can be assured that this time the swimming pool walls are less likely to leak (or break), so whatever water Isaac storm dumps in New Orleans (in not on), will remain there for a while. Building cities underwater is a French / Maldivian failed idea.
Stay safe down there.
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I think we built a storm surge barrier since the last time ?
Looks like it may get tested soon ?…..”””””
Well that’s my point; the higher you build the walls of the swimming pool, the deeper the water can be when it fills up.
Hurricanes typically go up higher than most swimming pools, so your storm surge barrier isn’t going to stop Isaac from going over the top and filling the pool up. At least last time the holes in the walls allowed the pool to drain. Nice touch having that big pool behind the city, in case the hurricane doesn;t bring enough water.
“””””…..Jeanette Collins says:
August 27, 2012 at 8:45 pm
Dp, you have no idea what you are talking about, [snip -policy] In 2005, we had already evacuated once, for Hurricane David, which of course you don’t remember. It costs a lot of money to evacuate and plenty of people couldn’t afford it a second time when Katrina came. And if you don’t think the government left the people of New Orleans to rot in August 2005, then you were living on another planet. We know how to handle hurricanes here. Quit running your mouth off, [snip]…..”””””
Yeah; “Good job Brownie !” You too Jeanette. I’m hoping to pick up some more pointers from your Mayor. Make sure that young kid (five years older now), has access to the keys to the school busses; he may have to step up to the bar again. Well maybe not; I guess he isn’t drinking age yet.
Stay safe Jeanette !
Why do I think of a submarine with screen doors every time I think of New Orleans?
A lot of earlier discussion on knots vs. mph. I don’t think too many would be able to make any sense of the significance between the numbers and its impact on them. The folks putting the knots numbers out could always advise their viewers to multiply by (pi)/(e) to covert between them.
“””””……roger says:
August 28, 2012 at 9:40 am
If it is not too late to join in the wind speed definition discussion, we in the UK have been treated by the BBC to a forecast of landfall speeds of 175 Kilometres per hour.
For those of you in the USA having trouble with the definition in Knots, I am pleased to be able to tell you that a Kilometre is five eighths of a mile and is the preferred unit of measurement for all European warmists, and flies in the face of the UK unit of distance which despite the prolonged efforts of eurofascists remains as imperial miles……”””””
Well “Imperial” miles sounds a bit imperious to me. I thought it was Statute miles; you know the 8 furlong kind.
In any case it matters knott (pun intended), because wind speeds and ocean currents are usually measured in knots, in the rod / stone / fortnight system, and knots is always NAUTICAL miles per hour.
A nautical mile is variously, approximately one minute of arc longitudinally on the equator, or 1000 fathoms, or 6076 ft (making a fathom 6.076 ft). But today definitively, one nautical mile is 1852 metres; exactically !
“””””…..DesertYote says:
August 28, 2012 at 9:36 am
ferdberple
August 28, 2012 at 7:38 am
Tom in Worc.(usa) says:
August 27, 2012 at 8:53 pm
How many times are we going to rebuild a city that is in a hurricane zone and is below sea level?…..”””””
Valdez, Alaska, which was totalized in the 1964 Alaska quake ( wazzat 9.6 or something) was simply abandoned, and they moved about three miles down the road, and built an entire new town.
No, old Valdez is still there, and brings in tourist dollars to new Valdez. (well it was when I drove through there in July 1967).. I actually drove on those buckboard pretzellized roads. Pretty place, and reminds one of the Exxon Valdez fiasco.
No! we don’t wish ANY harm to the people of NO; but it is the poorest of those folks, who have the least alternatives, in dealing with a problem that gets no more solvable with each bandaid patch.
Same goes for Venice. This is a family friendly meeting place, so I can’t comment on Frank and Cisco, within the vocabulary approved by Anthony
Also, Christchurch Cathedral, will not be rebuilt. That sort of structure was never intended to experience earthquakes; so now they will have to come up with a suitable replacement structure, that IS quake savvy. Some times you just have to let go.
It’s hard to believe that here on the World’s most read Science web site, that there are so many folks who can’t convert knots, to kph or mph. Well if you went to a public school in California, you get a B-, just to protect your self esteem. We could upgrade that to a B, if you could do the alternative two questions; first point in the direction of sunrise which is usually East, and is needed for Moslem appreciation week; and then demonstrate putting a condom on a pickle in less than a minute. That’s just for K through 8. After that, they assume you already know all that stuff.
And there’s an ap on your Raspberry, for sorting out knots.
So, if the wind speed of a hurricane over water is measured in knots, are the distances that a hurricane travels over water measured in statute miles or nautical miles? There is a 15% difference. Oh, and how many Imperial Gallons of fuel will it take to get there.
I was going to leave it alone, but it keeps coming. Note that that the word Levee has no “Y” in it.
Isaac looks a bit like Ike.
http://stormadvisory.org/map/atlantic/?2008s9
12:20 PM EDT 28 August 2012 Update
Just an update to note that Isaac has finally become a definitive hurricane.
Hurricane Isaac is a very large tropical cyclone, with a sphere of influence nearly 900 miles wide. In addition to Isaac’s girth, the hurricane is boasting unusually low pressures for a barely Cat 1. This is because of its very large size, combined with repeated challenges to it from shear, dry air, and competing, multiple centers.
It is important not to let the “minimal” category fool anyone into a sense of security. Isaac is very similar to Hurricane Ike (2008), also a very large tropical cyclone that boasted exceptionally low barometric pressures for its given moniker at any given time; ie, tropical storm, cat 1, cat 2, etc.
As with Ike, Isaac’s intensification is going to be experienced in winds that are strong to very strong over a much wider area than typical in a hurricane; as such, storm surge will potentially be much more of an issue than might be expected in “just” a Cat 1.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Board=tb2012&Number=93835&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&fpart=1