The track models have all been pointing to the Gulf coast rather than central Florida, this plot of 10 meter wind velocity through August 31st is from WeatherBell’s newly setup HWRF model website by hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue:
The brown colors near the eye indicate sustained wind speeds of 100 to 130 knots (115 to 150 mph). That would make Isaac likely a category 4 hurricane when it makes landfall, with likely higher gusts. The track takes it across the Florida keys, near Ft. Meyers, FL, and onto the Gulf Coast. It is expected to intensify in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico once it clears the west coast of Florida. The turn towards the NNE isn’t forecast to happen until after landfall in the model.
UPDATE: The new forecast for today has lower wind speeds and the track has shifted west to the delta of the Mississippi river:
Here’s a more detailed closeup 4 panel model view for the time Isaac is forecast to make landfall:
And here is the update for today:
Obviously a lot can change, but this bears watching and getting out of the way of. I’ll have updates to this page soon, and an Isaac reference page will be setup on WUWT for keeping track of it.
Rainfall from Isaac looks to be between 10 and 20 inches along its path:
here’s the update for Sunday, about the same, but in the worst place possible:
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has been looking at some damage model estimates earlier today and writes:
The median historical damage from this set of analogue storms is $1.6 billion, with an incredibly wide range. Currently the NHC projects Issac to make landfall along the Gulf coast as a category 2 storm. There are 5 historical analogues in the set above with normalized damage ranging $1 billion (Georges, 1998) to $4.4 billion (Gustav, 2008). Category 3 and 4 storms have resulted in much higher damage. I’ll update these numbers as Issac gets closer to the Gulf Coast.
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Tom in Texas says:
August 26, 2012 at 7:13 pm
“I think it was Mark Twain that called it one of the four unique cities in the U.S.
The others: San Francisco, Boston, and San Antonio.”
Sounds about right to me. Leaving Bourbon Street to the young tourists, there is the Crescent City which was built on a crescent ridge along the Mississippi. That ridge does not flood and was not flooded by Katrina. It contains a treasure trove of architecture from the 1700s and some institutions, such as a convent, that have been in continuous operation. When you encounter some Cajun kid running a fish stand, you know that you are not entirely in the US any longer. It is a very rich city that rewards extended exploration.
To Lady in Red,
Isaac has not been born yet as a hurricane. It is still in the fetal tropical storm stage. When it becomes a hurricane sometime in the third trimester around Monday night, we will be able to talk about your issues. Until then Isaac is still a fetus, so now let’s keep on topic about the gulf coast and the impact this baby will have on it.
From Tom in Texas on August 26, 2012 at 7:13 pm:
So the “unique” ones are cesspools of iniquity and vanity, or in Texas.
Or was San Antonio a lot more “unique” back in Samuel L. Clemens’ time?
So far Isaac has never been a hurricane, only a tropical storm. Yet according to the BBC it has lashed and pounded and wreaked havoc. God knows what it would have done if had been a Hurricane. I think they have a standard print block and they just substituted the correct “Tropical Storm” for the word Hurricane.
As Somebody said Florida needs the rain.
I saw something a bit weird this morning when I first turned to the satellite views for IR AVN. The center of circulation was Southeast of the eastern Cuban coast, and there was another point of circulation to the Northwest of Cuba, which looked like it was spinning up. With the half hour animation it appears that the low pressure centers of the two lows joined, the northerly system spun up through some transfer of angular momentum, and, within a half our the center was at the northwest point and the southern point turned chaotic. Is there an archive of the satellite views at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml ? I’d like to review this.
fthoma says:
August 26, 2012 at 8:11 pm
I saw something a bit weird this morning when I first turned to the satellite views
———————
Yep that is what I noticed as well. Goofy storm.
11PM EDT update (same URL):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242054.shtml
Angling slightly more to west, slow moving… Is anything going to happen anytime soon?
I don’t know about the nhc.noaa.gov website but one can go back as far as a week or so here and review satellite imagery in a loop:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/
.
fthoma says:
August 26, 2012 at 8:11 pm
Jeff D says:
August 26, 2012 at 8:23 pm
That’s what I was referring to as a ‘yin yang double center’ at 11:14am. It did it again after 3:00pm (pacific zone). Seems to have a barely repressed split personality…. weird!
MtK
If you look at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html you can see the level of infrared increasing as the convection has really increased over the Gulf.
Looks like Isaac is aimed at the Ozarks. As the drought there is eased the hand wringers will talk about too much rain. They will talk about how many names we have used up without mentioning how many names were wasted on marginal storms (Helene and Joyce recently).
eric1skeptic says:
August 27, 2012 at 2:05 am
Looks like Isaac is aimed at the Ozarks. As the drought there is eased the hand wringers will talk about too much rain. They will talk about how many names we have used up without mentioning how many names were wasted on marginal storms (Helene and Joyce recently).
The rules currently in use mean that Helen and Joyce will remain in the list and will be reused in six or seven years time. The names are ‘retired’ by the WMO loosely based on cost and lives lost.
For Atlantic hurricanes, there is a list of names for each of six years. In other words, one list is repeated every seventh year. The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames_history.shtml
But there is a lot of debate on whether it makes sense to name a ‘fish storm’ that only briefly makes hurricane strength and that is only observed by satellite. This is usually because various groups start ‘a book’ on how many storms hurricanes etc in each season; rather like the current ‘excitement’ about forecasting the September extent of arctic ice. The difference for those in states that are in the hurricane firing line is that insurers look for excuses to raise rates and ‘an active year’ even though made up of 90% fish storms can raise rates.
Helene had a plane make 40 knot wind measurement a few hours before hitting Mexico. A named storm with no future potential whatsoever. Joyce had no measurements, just a satellite estimate of 35 knots. Perhaps the forecasters could be forgiven since they though it would intensify further. But it died immediately. Both “storms” lasted less than 6 hours.
Isaac could be bad for NO, but perhaps provide much needed rain for parched Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri & Kansas.
Just reviewed the latest from the NHC. I also went back to the graphics archives and watched the development of the projected tracks for this storm as well as the wind projections. It seems that the Issac tends not to live up to it’s billing — and it is worth noting that it has never been a hurricane, at least not yet. Perhaps it will strengthen to a Cat 1, but even officially, there is currently only a one-in-ten chance that it will reach Cat 2 of 96 mph. The people at NHC know that they are likely to incur the wrath of HQ if they fail to follow the party line about more intense and more frequent storms being caused by AGW, so they keep their estimates on the high side. And of course, the media could turn a tropic depression into the greatest threat to life-as-we-know-it in human history. I do not see where anyone is served by the exaggeration and alarmism and the folks at NHC lose credibility.
This comment from the MiamiHerald just about sums up the attitude towards the Herald as well as the effects of the storm.
“khill444444 • 17 hours ago −
↓
This massive storm is a menace. I just had a palm frond blow off one of my trees, slightly injuring a frog on my walkway. I and the frog thank for for your thoughts and prayers during this difficult time. I will be sending this to Phil Ferro at Channel 7, who obviously needs to put this on the news immediately.”
I am undecided whether I should supply a “sarc” tag or not !
Looks like it is going to arrive as a tropical storm. Many in the MSM are calling it Hurricane Isaac. Never was a hurricane. As of 1PM EDT it’s still a tropical storm.
True Nanook, they will send out the “hurricane hunter” and tell them to keep flying until they find a 74 mph wind or run out of fuel whichever comes first. Or Isaac makes it to hurricane, they will have to look for a cat 2 wind. It won’t matter if it’s one dropsonde in one sector.
“Lady in Red says:
August 25, 2012 at 7:35 pm
blah blah blah… American taliban… blah blah blah… taliban in America… blah blah blah… anti-woman taliban…”
What a disgusting string of hateful tirades. Your repeated use of the such an offensive term, much more offensive than ‘denier’, suggests that you’re far less interested in persuading than you are in insulting.
I saw something a bit weird this morning when I first turned to the satellite views for IR AVN. The center of circulation was Southeast of the eastern Cuban coast, and there was another point of circulation to the Northwest of Cuba, which looked like it was spinning up. With the half hour animation it appears that the low pressure centers of the two lows joined, the northerly system spun up through some transfer of angular momentum, and, within a half our the center was at the northwest point and the southern point turned chaotic. Is there an archive of the satellite views at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml ? I’d like to review this.
It’s all Greek to me but the discussion over at flhurricane.com may have covered what you saw.
“vertical stacking”, “decoupled”, “mid-level winds”…etc.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=93711&page=0&fpart=all&vc=2
Correction
fthoma says:
August 26, 2012 at 8:11 pm
I saw something a bit weird this morning when I first turned to the satellite views for IR AVN. The center of circulation was Southeast of the eastern Cuban coast, and there was another point of circulation to the Northwest of Cuba, which looked like it was spinning up. With the half hour animation it appears that the low pressure centers of the two lows joined, the northerly system spun up through some transfer of angular momentum, and, within a half our the center was at the northwest point and the southern point turned chaotic. Is there an archive of the satellite views at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml ? I’d like to review this.
It’s all Greek to me but the discussion over at flhurricane.com may have covered what you saw.
“vertical stacking”, “decoupled”, “mid-level winds”…etc.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=93711&page=0&fpart=all&vc=2
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?138