The track models have all been pointing to the Gulf coast rather than central Florida, this plot of 10 meter wind velocity through August 31st is from WeatherBell’s newly setup HWRF model website by hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue:
The brown colors near the eye indicate sustained wind speeds of 100 to 130 knots (115 to 150 mph). That would make Isaac likely a category 4 hurricane when it makes landfall, with likely higher gusts. The track takes it across the Florida keys, near Ft. Meyers, FL, and onto the Gulf Coast. It is expected to intensify in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico once it clears the west coast of Florida. The turn towards the NNE isn’t forecast to happen until after landfall in the model.
UPDATE: The new forecast for today has lower wind speeds and the track has shifted west to the delta of the Mississippi river:
Here’s a more detailed closeup 4 panel model view for the time Isaac is forecast to make landfall:
And here is the update for today:
Obviously a lot can change, but this bears watching and getting out of the way of. I’ll have updates to this page soon, and an Isaac reference page will be setup on WUWT for keeping track of it.
Rainfall from Isaac looks to be between 10 and 20 inches along its path:
here’s the update for Sunday, about the same, but in the worst place possible:
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has been looking at some damage model estimates earlier today and writes:
The median historical damage from this set of analogue storms is $1.6 billion, with an incredibly wide range. Currently the NHC projects Issac to make landfall along the Gulf coast as a category 2 storm. There are 5 historical analogues in the set above with normalized damage ranging $1 billion (Georges, 1998) to $4.4 billion (Gustav, 2008). Category 3 and 4 storms have resulted in much higher damage. I’ll update these numbers as Issac gets closer to the Gulf Coast.
has anyone noticed isaac is crossing katrina’s path on the anniversary of her being in the same spot 7 years almost to the exact hour,,,,, and red is my colour(original spelling).
When was it downgraded? (Latest) Brief synopsis follows …
– – – – – – – – – – – –
Tropical Storm ISAAC Public Advisory
…
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 23 .CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE
..CENTER OF ISAAC PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.2N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES
…
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H…AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT… MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY…AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM FROM THE CENTER. SMITH SHOAL LIGHT…NEAR KEY WEST…REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH…113 KM/H…AND VIRGINIA KEY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 66 MPH…106 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.
– – – – – – –
[Jim_ : Please confirm this is the text you want preserved. Robt]
I am hardly a fat guy in pajamas….
I am tired, however, about wanting to sacrifice women to a fetus. Yep. Science says it can be viable, earlier and earlier. Do I care? Nope? Minimize pain and suffering. Just like killing calves, for veal.
The pups and kitties we gas at the SPCA are “beyond viable,” living breathing things.
We are part of nature — just like Isaac. We need to stand in awe of that.
But we don’t need a “belief” about a “sout” unshared by the animals we gas and butcher, which is, apparently, ok’ed by God, to turn women into ovens, according to the GOP American taliban.
Some folk “believe” stoning women to death in the public square shouting Allah Akbar is fine.
Some believe women should be ovens to their fetuses. It’s ok.
I do not want my, country, The United States of America, turned into an anti-woman taliban.
If the GOP wants to go there it *is* ok. Today, however, I still have the right to walk. So do millions of other voters — who should, I think, be voting GOP, except for this issue.
And, this “silly” issue, long a part of the GOP platform, just bubbling to the surface now, will cost Romney the election. Yep. The GOP has some time to rethink the platform — rare, but ALWAYS legal — or lose. ….Lady in Red
LIR sez: “I believe in science, facts, repeatable experiments. I believe in truth. I believe in limited govt.
I do not believe that American women should be turned into birthing ovens, without rights.
imposing govt morality on women’s medical decisions. Your “beliefs” should be private, between you and *your* God. This isn’t science.
The important thing, friends: science, science, science. THAT is why you are here. *Science* is important.”
The scientific answer is that life begins at conception.
This is what we learned in middle school. Like begets like. We also learned the principles of living things versus non-living things.
Some have obfuscated this fact of science for their political motives, such as fighting against conservatives by portraying them as uneducated cavemen barbarians, and accusing conservatives of wanting to take all women and turn them into breeding machines. Or, alternately, wanting to instill a “theocracy” in the U.S.
If life does not begin at conception, then the burden for updating and revising the scientific view is upon The Lady in Red, with a revolutionary idea equivalent to Galileo declaring the earth revolves around the sun, and not vice versa:
Two questions follow that:
At what point in development does human life begin, if not at conception?
What is the thing until it is human? It is growing, has its own DNA, and so on. What is the name for this new phenomenon when it is in between conception and the point where this distinctly DNA-guided growing thing becomes homo sapiens?
[And now, either hilarity ensues, or vitriol and name-calling ensues – like discussing the lack of man-made global warming with some Al Gore-instructed college kid .]
And, Lady in Red, are we about to get a rant about “overpopulation” next, and how we educated westerners need to go to the dark corners of the world and promote birth control, lest “they” crowd our planet and ruin the good thing we have going on?
[Let’d keep to the topic, please. No more abortion discussion. ~dbs, mod.]
clipe says:
August 26, 2012 at 3:24 pm
I’ve only ever been on the east coast of Florida
That’s not true, I’ve been other places.
…meanwhile, back to the hurricane…
Last info I have found (about an hour ago) Isaac is not even an official hurricane–only wind speeds of 60 kph. The predictions are that it will intensify, but it will need a lot more “global warming”.
I guess that without the incredible power of global warming Isaac would have been a light rain storm. Key West was hit a little. They had some gusts to 70 mph, maybe. The mainland received light rain.
[Snip. Please stick to the topic. ~dbs, mod.]
@geran, I assume that what strength Isaac will have probably depends on how slowly he goes over the open Gulf. The water out there is supposed to be very warm and he could pick up a lot of strength from that if he spends enough time over it.
Also, the track of this storm makes it more potentially dangerous than Katrina because it’s coming in at the right angle to push all of its storm surge straight into Lake Ponchetrain, something Katrina wasn’t quite perfect for although it was more than bad enough. That could still change though.
We need to get the President on the job!
geran says:
August 26, 2012 at 4:37 pm
…meanwhile, back to the hurricane…
Last info I have found (about an hour ago) Isaac is not even an official hurricane–only wind speeds of 60 kph. The predictions are that it will intensify, but it will need a lot more “global warming”.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012/...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST MOVES THE CENTER OF ISAAC ACROSS THE LOWER
FL KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND WNWWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE
BANDS MOVING WNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL. THERE HAS BEEN WEAK
ROTATION INDICATED IN SEVERAL CELLS APPROACHING THE SERN FL
COAST...AND BANDS TO THE NORTH HAVE DISPLAYED OCCASIONAL LEWP
STRUCTURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS
BETWEEN ADJACENT BANDS WHICH MAY PERMIT LOCALIZED ZONES OF STRONGER
DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. 12Z AREA RAOBS AND CURRENT
VAD WIND PROFILES AT KMFL AND KBYX INDICATE 45-50 KT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL WHICH IS RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM OF 35 KT/250 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY...WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SMALL SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS
THAT DEVELOP.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
What will tomorrow bring?
The latest up date shows a bit of SOUTHWEST movement.
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/atl9stormtrack_large.html
Golly.
I forgot the ‘/sarc off’. Repost:
I guess that without the incredible power of global warming Isaac would have been a light rain storm. Key West was hit a little. They had some gusts to 70 mph, maybe. The mainland received light rain. /sarc off
My guess is that it does no make landfall in the US as a major hurricane.
Looks good Robt!
At the moment TS Isaac (it never was a hurricane) is static or dying. As of the 8pm update, even the NHC has no clue what its going to do. The rotational center is presently located approx 60 mi west of Key West and there’s not much water left in it, compared to earlier.
The only useful report on Isaac can be found in the Miami Herald:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/26/2969342/isaac-in-keys-15000-lose-power.html
Isaac was considerably less than expected, from Key West to Miami. Let’s give the Herald a big round of applause for not sensationalizing Isaac and for reporting what happened. According to the Herald, Isaac was not a hurricane and even the warning was down graded to tropical storm.
As for other news outlets, their headlines give the impression that south Florida was devastated.
Predicted roughly @ur momisugly 96 MPH at landfall…155 X .62
The Western gulf has hotter water. A more western track could produce a stronger storm.
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/1-unisys-map.gif
The dang thing gets more western with every update. The news coverage has been “Tampa-centric” thus far. (Is that stupid, or what?)
Tomorrow, Isaac may be a totally different story — and a bigger one.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242054.shtml
“A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST…”
Sebastian Inlet? That is way north of Fort Pierce and almost to Melbourne. That is about 200 miles from the light rain that fell in Miami. I guess Tropical Storm Warnings are very, very broad. (Sebastian Inlet is great for surfing. Maybe that’s what they were thinking about.)
Go to the Miami Herald and watch the girls gleefully waiting for Isaac in a northerly key.
The following is from the Miami Herald’s webpage:
‘“We always have people get injured or killed post-storm,” Broward Emergency Operations Director Chuck Lanza said Sunday afternoon, urging people to stay inside.
CAUTION ADVISED
He reminded pedestrians to keep clear of puddles and motorists to be extra cautious on the soaked and debris-strewn roadways. “If you can stay home and do things around the house, that’s the best idea,” he advised Sunday afternoon, once Isaac had passed with no immediate reports of extreme flooding or severe damage.’
Yep, watch out for those puddles. In Florida, you must assume that every body of water contains alligators. Y’all be careful now, Ya’ heah? /sarc off
We truly live in an age of hysteria. (Here I am referring to the other news outlets, not the Miami Herald.)
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/26/2969342/isaac-in-keys-15000-lose-power.html#storylink=cpy
A few days ago, I read (I think on Tom Nelson’s site) something about the hurricane missing the RNC by Big Joe B. I think he said it would go to the west of it and so far, he’s looking like he was right.
Jeff D says:
August 26, 2012 at 8:40 am
“I am still clueless and confused as to why we as an ” Intelligent ” species refuses to learn from past disasters and without fail will rebuild in the very same place natural disasters tend to strike.”
New Orleans is a treasure trove of history. For that reason, it is almost unique in the US.
Thank you moderators.
[ U R Welcome. ~dbs, mod.]
“New Orleans is a treasure trove of history. For that reason, it is almost unique in the US.”
I think it was Mark Twain that called it one of the four unique cities in the U.S.
The others: San Francisco, Boston, and San Antonio.