The track models have all been pointing to the Gulf coast rather than central Florida, this plot of 10 meter wind velocity through August 31st is from WeatherBell’s newly setup HWRF model website by hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue:
The brown colors near the eye indicate sustained wind speeds of 100 to 130 knots (115 to 150 mph). That would make Isaac likely a category 4 hurricane when it makes landfall, with likely higher gusts. The track takes it across the Florida keys, near Ft. Meyers, FL, and onto the Gulf Coast. It is expected to intensify in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico once it clears the west coast of Florida. The turn towards the NNE isn’t forecast to happen until after landfall in the model.
UPDATE: The new forecast for today has lower wind speeds and the track has shifted west to the delta of the Mississippi river:
Here’s a more detailed closeup 4 panel model view for the time Isaac is forecast to make landfall:
And here is the update for today:
Obviously a lot can change, but this bears watching and getting out of the way of. I’ll have updates to this page soon, and an Isaac reference page will be setup on WUWT for keeping track of it.
Rainfall from Isaac looks to be between 10 and 20 inches along its path:
here’s the update for Sunday, about the same, but in the worst place possible:
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has been looking at some damage model estimates earlier today and writes:
The median historical damage from this set of analogue storms is $1.6 billion, with an incredibly wide range. Currently the NHC projects Issac to make landfall along the Gulf coast as a category 2 storm. There are 5 historical analogues in the set above with normalized damage ranging $1 billion (Georges, 1998) to $4.4 billion (Gustav, 2008). Category 3 and 4 storms have resulted in much higher damage. I’ll update these numbers as Issac gets closer to the Gulf Coast.
Entropic man says:
August 26, 2012 at 10:25 am
It’s track is moving away from Tampa. God loves the GOP
It does appear to be drawing a bead on the New Orleans area which has suffered enough recently. And as you raise the GOP convention at Tampa; I wonder how much time a sitting president should spend personally dealing with the aftermath of a national disaster? a week or so?
Joe Bastardi has been predicting this storm development for over a month, My partial solution to government spending is to disband the National Weather Service and give their job to Joe.
LiR says “You guys are pissin’ me off.”
Simple answer: stop trolling. Everyone else: don’t feed the troll.
Ian W says:
August 26, 2012 at 10:37 am
Entropic man says:
August 26, 2012 at 10:25 am
It’s track is moving away from Tampa. God loves the GOP
It does appear to be drawing a bead on the New Orleans area which has suffered enough recently. And as you raise the GOP convention at Tampa; I wonder how much time a sitting president should spend personally dealing with the aftermath of a national disaster? a week or so?
————————
I’m an Englishman. I leave such questions to Americans.
Really scratching head. Is this Post Normal Meteorology?
NHC Bulletin 22, has Tropical Storm Isaac with wind speed of 65 mph
Hover NHC bulletin 22a has the following
Isaac has not increased in strength, followed by wind speed 60 mph.
So now the post 1984 decrease is replaced by not increased.
Soon as the center cleared Cuba it really started looking like its gonna get ugly. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html
Is Isaacs surname Hunt?
The fresh water reservoirs and aquifers of central and southern Florida are largely dependent on replenishment from hurricanes and the torrential rains they bring. While hurricanes are ‘bad’ for the people that live in their paths, the 12 inches to 24 inches of rain they can bring are ‘good’ for Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades and all of ther denizens. These fresh water reservoirs are heavily drawn on for the southern Florida cities potable water supplies as well. A 12″ – 24″ deluge is needed…..
Jeff D says:
August 26, 2012 at 10:55 am
Soon as the center cleared Cuba it really started looking like its gonna get ugly. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html
JD,
Thanks for the link! It looks like it is brewing up a ‘yin-yang’ double center!
MtK
I read that when a bridge across the river was built at New Orleans, the city deliberately made it with a low clearance so ocean-going ships couldn’t bypass it and offload upstream. Maybe, if the storm knocks down the bridge, it should be rebuilt higher. Maybe it should be rebuild higher anyway.
PS: “bypass it” = bypass New Orleans.
================
She’s been a regular poster here for at least a year, unlike some of her critics.
Initially, she only made a one-sentence comment, in the context of a comment of others about the effect of the storm on the convention.
Lady in Red says:
August 26, 2012 at 10:02 am
You guys are pissin’ me off.
All we want to do is get back to the topic of this thread and you act like we’re interested in your body. That’s exactly what we’re NOT interested in. The issue here is climate.
There are lots of issues not discussed here. You should be OK with that.
Isaac has been fighting dry air, wind shear and land interaction for the past week. Still, it is a very large circulation and has a lot of potential. Conditions will likely be quite good for strengthening in the Gulf and it will have about 65 hours to do so, which is plenty of time. I expect that Isaac will make landfall as a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. This will put an end to the long and unusual drought of major hurricanes crossing the US coast.
Despite this record setting major hurricane drought, the usual voices will proclaim Isaac an example of climate change and how things are getting worse. The reality is that hurricanes like this have always happened and always will, but usually a lot more often than they have lately.
No matter where it hits, it will be a disaster. The people impacted and the people responding will need our prayers and support.
(Lady in Red…What rights do women lose when they are pregnant? When my wife was pregnant…she seemed to gain a lot more rights!)
” I expect that Isaac will make landfall as a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. This will put an end to the long and unusual drought of major hurricanes crossing the US coast. ”
Well, we could get a pool going. Presently its having all kinds of trouble becoming even a cat 1. Winds speeds appear to have dropped some and its a ways off from being a cat 1 yet. NHC keeps trying to call the leading edge a protypical eyewall, but at the moment this is still just one big sloppy cyclone.. Cenrre of the low is just sw of Key West. Pretty slow moving at the moment. Put me down for a flimsy Cat 1 by the time it reaches the gulf coast. 🙂
Request: Please put dates and times against any further updates to the main post so we can see how current they are
I don’t like the latest computer prediction at all. That would push the surge westward along the coast, gathering strength until it piled up on the delta. We are talking a twenty foot surge. It’s a worst case scenario.
I hope everyone’s prayers keep that storm weak.
I was on holiday in New England when Katrina came in. I remember watching Weather Channel each night (I am from the UK!), and for most of the week beforehand, it was forecast to come ashore north of Miami as a run of the mill Category 2 or 3 storm.
At the last moment it veered south and just skirted over the Keys. It was only then that New Orleans was threatened,as it would otherwise have blown itself out over land, and, from memory, they only had a couple of days warning by then.
I guess it shows you can’t take anything for granted.
Lady in Red says:
August 26, 2012 at 6:58 am
I believe in science, facts, repeatable experiments. I believe in truth. I believe in limited govt. I believe in conservation and respect for the environment, picking up beer cans and “taking out what you brought in.”
I believe in babies and dogs and cats. I believe that calves and baby lambs and goats and pigs should be treated with love and respect…….
__________________________-
But, do you believe that all human beings have a right to live, even if a doctor and a child’s parent wants to kill a pre-born human being?
Framing the argument is a misused skill used by more than just the radical left wing environmentalists behind CAGW.
The right to kill other human beings is not an easy prerogative to give up, but changing what is the truth is not such an option.
@ur momisugly Lady in Red:
Then respect the science. If it has achieved the stage of development where outside of a female’s body it is a living viable child with the rights afforded such, then this should be recognized. The difference between dough and a loaf of bread is not whether it has been removed from the oven. “Inside or outside” should not be the sole quantifier as to whether something is a child, at that stage “disposal” should be limited to birthing (induced labor and/or c-section at mother’s request allowable) with the mother signing away parental rights and freed of parental responsibilities. Also, as medicine’s ability to successfully nurture “preemies” has increased, the “age of recognition” can be adjusted younger to reflect this.
If the argument comes from a libertarian and/or equality standpoint, then acknowledge the currently-unalterable biology that makes females the carrier of offspring and also that both a male and a female are involved. For what starts as an act of mutual consent, the male should also have rights. If he does not desire offspring then he should be able to demand termination. If the female wishes to continue then he shall have neither parental rights nor responsibilities, as he has already decided he will not be a parent to the resulting child. Likewise he may decide a pregnancy will continue, at least unto the “age of recognition” stage mentioned above, provided he will assume all parental rights and responsibilities. He would of course assume all further related costs.
Until technology advances to where artificial and/or non-human wombs are usable equivalent alternatives, policy should recognize human females as the only carrier of human offspring and the practical consequences thereof, for both males and females.
Drudge predicts disaster: http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/639/4146244558.jpg
I’ve been watching the satellite loops. Its a strange storm. You think you can see the center of the rotation and then a few frames later the center seems to have jumped a fair distance to the W NW. Almost like a tornado cycling and back building but this one rebuilds to the leading edge.
Hurricane or abortion issue?
What is the topic here?
Mods?
(Hint: This is the blogosphere–The “lady in red” may be a fat guy in his pajamas.)
I’ve only ever been on the east coast of Florida (PBI FLL MIA) but the “far left” coast is looking a bit choppy.
http://www.microseven.com/tv/livevideo-241.html
Caleb says:
August 26, 2012 at 12:51 pm
I don’t like the latest computer prediction at all. That would push the surge westward along the coast, gathering strength until it piled up on the delta. We are talking a twenty foot surge. It’s a worst case scenario. I hope everyone’s prayers keep that storm weak.
Caleb,
I agree. If Isaac gets organized and forms an ‘eye’ in the next 24 hours, it will have several days to strengthen further before any land fall.
Jeff D provided this link http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html
It looks like Isaac is getting his act together now! Pray, Indeed!!
MtK
From geran on August 26, 2012 at 3:06 pm:
After devastation, during extended periods without electricity or heating when people huddle together such as post-hurricane, there are notable spikes in pregnancies, mainly “unintended”. During long rebuilding periods after natural disasters, many decide “it’s not the right time”. So they are not entirely unrelated.