This is interesting, after watching the collapse in the last two years of entities like the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), which ended trading with a bag of charcoal briquettes being worth more than a ton of carbon futures, we have some clear evidence that the promised “green technology revolution” is headed for the scrap heap of history.
Ironically, it might be related to Mann’s hockey stick.
More on that later. First, here’s a description from the RENIXX website of what it is:
The RENIXX® (Renewable Energy Industrial Index) World is the first global stock index, which comprises the performance of the world´s 30 largest companies of the renewable energy industry whose weighting in the index is based on the market capitalization (free float).
“Free floating”, has just become “free falling”:
Since 2008, the index has lost about 90% of its value. In the last month, the nosedive seems to be accelerating:
Starting around May 10th, it seems the index has taken a steep drop, like an inverse hockey stick. Compare that to the graph they offer in their prospectus presentation:
The 2006 index got a boost, probably from from Al Gore’s movie, An Inconvenient Truth, released on May 24, 2006. 2007 was a banner year, and 2008 held the high ground, but look what happened in late 2009, coinciding with Climategate. I’m not saying that Climategate was the sole cause of that crash, as correlation isn’t causation, but it is most interesting. They haven’t updated the prospectus because as Steve McIntyre points out in his latest post on Schmidt’s “Conspiracy Theory”:
In the mining exploration business, investors who trade mining stocks know that “late” results are almost never “good” results. The reason is human nature. In public stocks, you’re legally obligated to report results promptly, but there is some play in timing. If promoters have “bad” results in the first part of the program, there is a great temptation to delay the bad news in the hope that later results will bail out the program. The best and only way to deal with temptations to delay bad results is to establish an announcement schedule ahead of time and stick to it.
That probably explains why they have not updated their online prospectus brochure, hoping that later results will “bail out the program”. I think that ship has sailed.
I found it also amazing that in their prospectus, they use Michael Mann’s IPCC hockey stick as a reference graph:
It would seem to me that any organization that would use such bad science as a reference for investors is destined to fail, and here, it seems that betting on Mann’s hockey stick isn’t working out.
Maybe investors read WUWT and Climate Audit. I wonder if it is too soon to use this cartoon:
h/t to The Hockey Schtick, who points out the number of dead and dying green companies:
Filed Bankruptcy:
Solyndra
Beacon Power
Ener1
Range Fuels
Solar Trust of America
Spectrawatt
Evergreen Solar
Eastern Energy
Unisolar
Bright Automotive
Olson’s Crop Service
Energy Conversion Devices
Sovello
Siag
Solon
Q-Cells
Mountain Plaza
Teetering on the Brink:
Abound Solar
A123 Systems
Brightsource Energy
Fisker Automotive
First Solar
Nevada Geothermal
SunPower
Nordex
The Bard Group
Amonix
NRG Energy
Alterra Power
Enel Green Power
Sunpower Corp
@Scottish Skeptic
You should be ashamed of yourself. How low can you go.
I too find Scottish Sceptics comments at best uninformed and at worst down right insulting.
One of my uncles was shot down 5/19/1944 in a B-17G 730th BS, 452d BG on a bombing mission over Berlin flying out of Deopham Green England. He survived the experience and spent the remainder of the war in POW camp. Without listing a dozen others, almost every adult I knew growing up was directly touched by WWII and many of them paid for the experience for the rest of their lives. Many of them then answered the call again a few years later in Korea.
It was not cheap or easy and a lot of people paid dearly to help Europe get through the war.
In the early phase of bombing by the 8th Air Force (1942-43) only 1 in 5 of the air crew completed their full tour of duty.
Larry
majormike1 says:
May 17, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Well said!
The Pompous Git: The vendor has still not got back to me about how come their quote was based on the panels outputting 138% of their maximum under ideal, cloudless conditions.
I priced a system the other day at a fair near my house. The installed cost of a 2kw system is now $12,000 (before deducting the credits.) Over a 30 year lifetime, that works out to about $0.10/kwh, depending of course on how well it works during that time (or $0.07/kwh if I take the 30% credit.) I seldom use 2kw, so I would never pay back the cost of the system out of my “savings”. It might work out differently if I owned a strip mall, where I could sell the customers reduced rate electricity in the daytime, and cut their SDG&E bills.
Details still to be provided. But this glorified Hockey Stick looks all the world like a Monte Carlo model analysis with 3000 realizations. Set up the model with ranges of your parameters and turn the handle 3000 times. But it doesn’t mean it is correct if the model is assumed to have CO2 as the primary driving mechanism.
Same old invalid assumptions and manipulated data. Just in time to support the Ozzie government carbon tax next month.
In summary (an apologies for any I might offend but it cannot be said any other way) just old fashion mathematical masturbation.
Americans’ reluctance to enter WW2 was due to their correct feeling that France and Britain had brought it on themselves by over-riding Wilson at Versailles and imposing a victor’s peace.
@frank K. mathematical mast….
Oh, I beg to differ. When it is done via press release and for money, other less polite words are far more appropriate.
The difference between both Tesla and SpaceX (and, for that matter, SolarCity) and the losers Obama has been pouring funds into is owner Elon Musk. Brilliant, detail-oriented, hyper-workaholic, and a very devil on cost-control (with specialization in vertical integration, making stuff in-house), he has out-performed both competition and parallel government efforts by factors of 2 – 10.
Keep your eyes on his prizes. It’s going to be quite a ride.
This is a bit of prestidigitation commonly used by renewafools. For solar and wind, especially, production costs could fall to zero and they STILL would be too expensive to use. Dilute and variable and remote power sources are the devil for power grids. Fuggedaboudit.
Matthew R Marler says:
May 17, 2012 at 5:18 pm
“I priced a system the other day at a fair near my house. The installed cost of a 2kw system is now $12,000 (before deducting the credits.) Over a 30 year lifetime, that works out to about $0.10/kwh”
Under an interest rate of 0% that means you produce 120,000 kWh in 30 years or 4,000 kWh per year with a 2 kWpeak system, this means that you assume 2,000 sun hours per year.
Ok – well, zero capital cost, don’t you think that’s ridiculous? But ignoring that, where do we find 2,000 sun hours per year. That’s 5.47 sunhours per day.
Ok, it works in the Southwest of the US and in the Sahara:
http://solarjourneyusa.com/solarvsgas.php
BTW, the map shows very beautifully how ESPECIALLY unsuited Germany of all places is for solar. Even for its latitude it is an extremely unsunny place…
I know “Scottish Skeptic” had his tongue firmly in cheek and intended that crack only as a slightly humorous little gibe. Some people sure went overboard reacting to it. That’s the problem with using irony, sarcasm, or other devices where the intended meaning is skewed from the literal meaning: Some chowderheads always take it serious. Oh well.
For the record: My father-in-law flew B-17’s off the world’s largest slowest aircraft carrier. My father spent the same period of time sitting on a Cat D-7 on a succession of Pacific islands trying to fill in bomb craters in runways faster than they got blown open. And I have a son who thought he looked good in marine dress blues and didn’t make it to 30.
Forget ITER. A multinational century-long jobs program. Far better results at fractions of 1% of the cost: LPPhysics.com . NO government funding (a blessing in disguise).
Only now is it obvious enough that public and investors are able to perceive it. It’s been pyramided and covered and fiddled previously, so they kept hoping it would work.
But the Invisible Hand puts on brass knucks when necessary. You don’t want to be on the receiving end of one of those uppercuts!
Frack that fracking! And the dummies in VT?
I’m with those who have suggested that Scottish Sceptic meant to type WWI rather than WWII. Let’s cut him some slack and give him a chance to respond. One lousy typo shouldn’t be construed as an insult.
I know that the Solyndra loan was set up so that the creditors got their money before the taxpayers did. The California Democratic Committee was listed as a creditor. So they got taxpayer money and the taxpayers didn’t. How or why a state political party of either side would be a “creditor” of such a venture I’ve never heard anyone explain. Was a political party a “creditor” of any of these other companies? Did stimulus money go into stimulating them?
@Scottish Skeptic
I don’t know how you meant that statement but, we were Allies then, we’re Allies now. I’m glad you were there to stem the tide. Be glad we were there to help stop it.
PS 1 uncle 82nd Airborn, 1 uncle artillary in Indochina (rumors he was OSS), Dad Army medical corp in Philippines in ’46 (the A-Bomb meant the war was over before he saw active duty), my Mom’s uncle was one of Patton’s translators, a friend of Dad’s and my optomotrist when I was a kid survived the Battaan Death March, I worked closely with a man that survived Dachau (He was an Italian POW) … “We”, meaning our nations and families and friends, were all in it together.
I hope what you said didn’t communicate what you really meant.
Either way, we’re all in it together now.
Ill Tempered Klavier says:
May 17, 2012 at 6:24 pm
I know “Scottish Skeptic” had his tongue firmly in cheek and intended that crack only as a slightly humorous little gibe. Some people sure went overboard reacting to it. That’s the problem with using irony, sarcasm, or other devices where the intended meaning is skewed from the literal meaning: Some chowderheads always take it serious. Oh well.
For the record: My father-in-law flew B-17′s off the world’s largest slowest aircraft carrier. My father spent the same period of time sitting on a Cat D-7 on a succession of Pacific islands trying to fill in bomb craters in runways faster than they got blown open. And I have a son who thought he looked good in marine dress blues and didn’t make it to 30.
============================================================
Figures of speech can be tricky. B-17’s off an aircraft carrier!? Of course you meant England in WW2.
I re-read Scottish Skeptic’s comment after seeing your (and making mine). He meant to be taking a crack at himself for being late starting his own group in the UK. I guess he just hit a nerve he wasn’t aiming for to begin with. But, as I said at end of my comment, “Either way, we’re all in it together now.”
If I understood what you said, I’m at the same time sorry and thankful for your son.
RENIXX’s fall continues. It closed at 181.59 on 5/17. That kind of fall is striking for a single company, but for a whole sector?!
http://www.renewable-energy-industry.com/stocks/
Once again the Ogangster leaps to the aid of his failing cronies
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/05/only-people-pay-taxes-not-solar-panels.htm
Only People Pay Taxes, Not Solar Panels; Commerce Slaps 31% Tax on U.S. Consumers
Whoops! missed the l in the link above
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/05/only-people-pay-taxes-not-solar-panels.html
VAST AMOUNTS OF SHALE OIL IN THE US LINK :
http://thegwpf.org/energy-news/5706-200-year-supply-of-oil-in-one-single-shale-formation.html
The fall continued in the last three years. Chart of 1/2008 to today for First Solar FSLR and several “alternative energy” exchange traded funds ETFs: GEX, KWT, ICLN, TAN.
It shows a consistent upper left to lower right pattern. While the rest of the market recovered from the crash in 2008, these guys kept on going down.
BTW, I agree with the guy who said we’re rolled over headed down right now. Probably not a full on crash, but down for a ‘correction’ at least. (Usually 10-20% in a ‘correction’ – could be more).
>>>Hoser says: May 17, 2012 at 10:54 am
>>>At the same time, if it were not for Lend-Lease, you’d be speaking German now.
I would rather be speaking German than Urdu.
.
Al Gore seems to be rather quiet at the moment. Is it possible that he is terrified that his scams, that have led tens of thousands of investors to invest millions of private and commercial dollars in ‘green’ companies based on his bogus advice, are now being seen for what they are? The chickens are coming home to roost I fear and he can’t feel too happy at the smell they are making. Let us hope that he had faith in his own advocasy (which I doubt) and put his money where his mouth is. My guess is that he is too shrewed an operator to invest any of his considerable wealth in such straw based companies.He is far more likely to have made $millions from them.
Enough surely by now of the victims squabbling over who was most injured..
Get back to the cause for a common enemy to unite you – these wars were created by the bwanking cartel.
A snippet from the real history:
http://bigeye.com/bankers_make_war.htm
“By digging into the treaty leak in New York, the Committee shed light on an attempt to end the sovereignty of at least fifteen nations: America through political disenfranchisement and those in Europe through economic dictatorship. The reader can judge for themselves how far this plan came to fruition.”