The Global Renewable Energy Index is crashing

This is interesting, after watching the collapse in the last two years of entities like the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), which ended trading with a bag of charcoal briquettes being worth more than a ton of carbon futures, we have some clear evidence that the promised “green technology revolution” is headed for the scrap heap of history.

Ironically, it might be related to Mann’s hockey stick.

More on that later. First, here’s a description from the RENIXX website of what it is:

The RENIXX® (Renewable Energy Industrial Index) World is the first global stock index, which comprises the performance of the world´s 30 largest companies of the renewable energy industry whose weighting in the index is based on the market capitalization (free float).

“Free floating”, has just become “free falling”:

Since 2008, the index has lost about 90% of its value. In the last month, the nosedive seems to be accelerating: 

Starting around May 10th, it seems the index has taken a steep drop, like an inverse hockey stick. Compare that to the graph they offer in their prospectus presentation:

The 2006 index got a boost, probably from from Al Gore’s movie, An Inconvenient Truth, released on May 24, 2006. 2007 was a banner year, and 2008 held the high ground, but look what happened in late 2009, coinciding with Climategate. I’m not saying that Climategate was the sole cause of that crash, as correlation isn’t causation, but it is most interesting. They haven’t updated the prospectus because as Steve McIntyre points out in his latest post on Schmidt’s “Conspiracy Theory”:

In the mining exploration business, investors who trade mining stocks know that “late” results are almost never “good” results. The reason is human nature. In public stocks, you’re legally obligated to report results promptly, but there is some play in timing. If promoters have “bad” results in the first part of the program, there is a great temptation to delay the bad news in the hope that later results will bail out the program. The best and only way to deal with temptations to delay bad results is to establish an announcement schedule ahead of time and stick to it.

That probably explains why they have not updated their online prospectus brochure, hoping that later results will “bail out the program”. I think that ship has sailed.

I found it also amazing that in their prospectus, they use Michael Mann’s IPCC hockey stick as a reference graph:

It would seem to me that any organization that would use such bad science as a reference for investors is destined to fail, and here, it seems that betting on Mann’s hockey stick isn’t working out.

Maybe investors read WUWT and Climate Audit. I wonder if it is too soon to use this cartoon:

h/t to The Hockey Schtick, who points out the number of dead and dying green companies:

Filed Bankruptcy:

Solyndra

Beacon Power

Ener1

Range Fuels

Solar Trust of America

Spectrawatt

Evergreen Solar

Eastern Energy

Unisolar

Bright Automotive

Olson’s Crop Service

Energy Conversion Devices

Sovello

Siag

Solon

Q-Cells

Mountain Plaza

Teetering on the Brink:

Abound Solar

A123 Systems

Brightsource Energy

Fisker Automotive

First Solar

Nevada Geothermal

SunPower

Nordex

The Bard Group

Amonix

NRG Energy

Alterra Power

Enel Green Power

Sunpower Corp

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of

Just spent the last week starting an organisation in Scotland called the Scottish Climate and Energy Forum (scef.org.uk)
Now I’m seriously worried! … is this going to be a bit like the US in WWII? Arrive at the battle just when the war is was almost over?

lanceap

Reality Check finally for these folks…

Latitude

I suspect it has more to do with this…..
..and Spain, Italy, France, etcetc
May 16, 2012
Greek banks may be nearing complete collapse
Money Watch) There are indicators that the run on Greek banks is already over, leaving many institutions near complete collapse. Depositors have pulled out a record amount of money in the last 10 days and there are reports that the ECB is no longer willing to lend to either them or the Greek central bank, which is also in a precarious situation.
Since May 6, depositors fearful over a Greek exit from the Euro have taken more than $6.42 billion out of the nation’s banks, with $898 million coming on Monday alone. May 6 was the day of the last round of Greek elections where anti-bailout parties received most of the votes cast. Monday was the deadline for Greece’s political parties to form a government. Their failure to do that means a new round of elections will be held on June 17.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57435327/greek-banks-may-be-nearing-complete-collapse/

Reed Coray

If enough people lose enough money, some of them are bound to take legal action. I have no idea if former VP Al Gore has anything to do with the RENIXX@ World Market trend, but he is prominent in the financial markets associated with Global Warming. My advice to big Al is to hire a law firm that has experience in defending civil lawsuits–either that, or declare bankruptcy.

PhilW

Investments in renewable energy could be put on hold while European governments develop clear policies on shale gas, according to a biomass energy expert.
http://www.environmental-finance.com/news/view/2503

OT
As Dr Spencer pointed out, the AMSR2 satellite, “SHIZUKU: first water” is being readied for launch.
The launch can be viewed live here:
http://www.jaxa.jp/countdown/f21/index_e.html
We are 20 minutes away from the launch window right now (39 mins after the hour)
Hal

Nerd

Too bad, Ross Perot ran as 3rd independent candidate for that election. Clinton would have not won and Al Gore would have not brought up CO2 scam…

kakatoa

To push those slopes back to positive territory (if that’s what is desired) it looks like we need a nationwide RES. And per Sec Chu- “Money is at the root of all renewables. Once they were the high-priced alternative to coal and natural gas in terms of electricity generation. Since then they have come down about 80 percent in price during the last five years and are due to come down potentially another 50 percent by the end of the decade, they are closer to being at cost, Chu said.” http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/blog/business/2012/05/doe-secretary-steven-chu-sees-arizona.html?ana=yfcpc

Mike Smith

Sadly, with our government being so eager to throw our money at any cause labeled “green”, it is the poor old taxpayer who will ultimately bear the brunt of these losses.
Most of the private investors who would have deserved to lose their shirts had more sense than to invest in these follies.

Lol, we’ll sit patiently waiting for apologies from the lunatics.
When many of us stated that these toys won’t work in a real world environment we got called all sorts of nasty things. ……

kcom

By my reading of the graph, it doesn’t even cover the Climategate period because it goes up through September 2009 and Climategate happened in November 2009.

TerryS

Re: Latitude
Since 2008 share values have dropped by an average of 16 to 20%. RENIXX has dropped by 90% over the same time period so whilst a small part of it might be due to Greece, Spain, Italy etc. the vast majority of the free-fall can not blamed on the Euro.

Scottish Sceptic says on May 17, 2012 at 9:00 am:

Now I’m seriously worried! … is this going to be a bit like the US in WWII? Arrive at the battle just when the war is was almost over?

One might be tempted to ask at this point – where it was you studied history?
(Unless you meant that Germany had all but completely overrun Europe successfully …)
.

cui bono

As an unfortunate aside, the bankrupcy of Government-sponsered firms like Solyndra is being used by politicians as an argument against continuing the attempts to create a private sector spaceflight capability (SpaceX, etc) with money from NASA.
It would be the ultimate horrible irony if one of the denouements of the AGW policy nonsense was to end the hopes of spaceflight freeing itself from government-monopoly porkbarrel cost-plus-contract FAR-retarded agencies. But this seems to be the way things are going in Congress at the moment.
PS: As a non-US taxpayer, my opinions are backed by sending over money to pro-space groups.

Nothing that a few Government subsidies won’t fix – oh ye of little faith!

Brian Johnson uk

Oh yes please – a massive civil lawsuit on Al Gore for the AGW lies [Inconvenient Truths!] he knew were lies and the money he made by telling those untruths.

Skiphil

Is it too much to hope that Algore and a lot of his cronies kept most of their assets in these 30 “renewables” star companies???
ok, it is too much to hope, as a lot of the “greens” probably invest in diverse portfolios including lots of oil and gas stocks etc.
I know an avid green who always touts Algore’s line, and when I asked her how should could be invested in such evilll companies as Exxon etc. she just smiled and said “I have to do my best for my family.” Yes, and all of us should do better by our families by ending the run of green lunacies in politics and economics.

Scottish skeptic has it wrong. America may have done a last little bit of mopping up after the Scots and the Brits stopped bickering long enough to defeat the Nazis, but now that the Scots are on the climate scene, I sense that the big victories are still to come. Welcome to the fight Scottish Climate and Energy Forum!

Doug Proctor

Scottish Sceptic wrote:
Now I’m seriously worried! … is this going to be a bit like the US in WWII? Arrive at the battle just when the war is was almost over?
Excuse me, but if you look at history other than what Mountbatten might have written, WWI and WWII turned out the way they did because the Americans came in with their almost unlimited industrial power and and massive military presence just as Britain and Russia were being drained to nothing. And prior to WWII, the “lease-lend” of American ships to Britain was crucial to Britain’s initial survival, much to Germany’s anger.
I’m a Brit myself, son of a WWII naval CPO. I’ve heard the same from my relatives. The facts are as inconvenient as Gore’s.

Alex

Well being that this green bull[snip ;-)] is based on handouts it’s no wonder the stock dive when the world has real problems to solve, like it has now.

edmh

The BBC must have some very sad pension holders. They have been lead right up the Global Warming garden path. All their hard over support for the CAGW myth must raise some internal questions by some very angry employees.

Matthew R Marler

Here is a review of PV power installation in the EU:http://www.solardaily.com/reports/European_Union_PV_market_largest_worldwide_999.html
There is a link to a larger report at the bottom.
Customers are benefiting from the unexpected rapid declines in production costs. Owners of the more expensive means of production are taking a bath, as the saying goes. Current buyers (of shares, that is) now are figuring future profit margins to be lower than past buyers of shares anticipated.
So you have something not unheard of in other markets at other times: a weighted average of share prices is falling as actual production costs are falling and actual production is increasing. How low will production costs go? We debated that before.

D. King

Scottish Sceptic says:
May 17, 2012 at 9:00 am
“… is this going to be a bit like the US in WWII? Arrive at the battle just when the war is was almost over?”
If we’re lucky!
Lived in the U.K. from 1986-88 and returned many times there after. I’ve heard this before and would tell you I have found the Americans that were not late, They are here in Cambridgeshire at the American cemetery.
http://www.303rdbg.com/cem-cambridge.jpg

Shevva

Horizontal is date, vertical is chocolate buttons? /sarc
Luckily I have invested all my money in my waist line the last few years, it’s gone up 2″ in 2 years.

Latitude

TerryS says:
May 17, 2012 at 9:33 am
============================
You mean like speculators with oil and gas, etc

Josh Grella

_Jim says:
May 17, 2012 at 9:33 am
He studied in modern times. That kind of revisionist history is taught all over the world nowadays in all subjects. It is what has allowed the whole Gore-bull warming scam to come into existence in the first place and allows them to constantly change the name (from AGW to Climate Change to Climate Disruption to whatever is next). It’s sad, but he (and many others around the world) probably believes his statement about the US involvement in WWII to be true the same way they believe AGW is real. Or, more hopefully, he just forgot to add “/sarc off” at the end of his comment.

Jenn Oates

Ouch.
I mean, really…ouch.
I’ll be in the UK in July and plan to discretely try ask about to see what the average Brit (or Scot!) thinks about all of this. It’ll be fun, a little informal survey of the common folk. It’ll be at least as valid as some of the climate “science” coming out, right?

vboring

You can add Electronic Materials, Inc. NYSE:WFR to the teetering list.
They’re circling the drain, down another 20% today. They own Sun Edison and make every component for solar farms. They may have some other silicon business, but I think the solar parts are what is bringing them down.

Silver Ralph

This is an industry and an index that is 100% dependent on government subsidies for its survival. Since governments around the world are cutting back on stupid, wasteful pet projects, the first area to feel the pinch was bound to be so-called ‘Green Energy’ (‘Subsidised Energy’). How much money do you think Greece or Spain can put into renewables today?
This crash was 100% predictable to anyone in the real rational world – while the Greenie-fantasists continue to believe that the Emperor is still wearing clothes.
.

DirkH

Germany is the biggest taker for renewable energy contraptions.
Merkel just sacked the environment minister.
http://notrickszone.com/2012/05/17/angela-merkel-sacks-her-environment-minister-german-face-of-renewable-energy-norbert-rottgen/
His job was to neutralize the Greens, not become one of them. Too bad.

Resourceguy

Looking out across the investment and policy wasteland we can blame German subsidy gyration that could and would have lowered subsidies in a more orderly fashion alongside tech and efficiency gains. The Germans are the root cause of this with plans to shot down nuclear and solar in tandem while propping up the Greeks so they can retire early and pretend they can have all the benefits as long as someone else pays for them. So end the end it was socialists that killed renewable energy as part of their mile long list of stupid, unsustainable notions. BTW, I hear Al Gore is available as the new Greek leader.

I am certainly glad I didn’t take the advice of my former broker and become involved in this sector. My portfolio includes coal, oil, and natural gas through Canadian stocks (dividends and MLPs).
But I am diversified across the board in “tangibles” and hard commodities.
On a different note, perhaps what Scottish Sceptic meant was “in the nick of time”.

and 2008 held the high ground, but look what happened in late 2009, coinciding with Climategate
Well, Christmas 2007 held the high ground, a drop in Jan 2008, and the crash in 2008 Q4, a year before Climategate. We don’t see late 2009.

DirkH

Resourceguy says:
May 17, 2012 at 10:04 am
“So end the end it was socialists that killed renewable energy as part of their mile long list of stupid, unsustainable notions.”
It was socialism that gave birth to it – Schröder’s red-green government in 1999; creating the mother of all Feed In Tariff laws.

Jimmy Haigh

It’s sort of like natural selection in action. “Green” companies just can’t survive in the real world.

Bill

The 2006 index got a boost, probably from from Al Gore’s movie, An Inconvenient Truth, released on May 24, 2006. 2007 was a banner year, and 2008 held the high ground, but look what happened in late 2009, coinciding with Climategate.
The title of the graph seems to indicate that September 2009 is the end, so I take the 2009 vertical line to indicate January 2009 and the big plummet to be in second half 2008, coinciding with worldwide market plunges rather than climategate. Not that that makes any difference for the companies selling unicorn dust or whatever they’re pushing.

@Scottish Skeptic: is this going to be a bit like the US in WWII? Arrive at the battle just when the war is was almost over?
Yes, it probably is like WWII. But adjust your clock. Churchill said in Nov. 1942.
“Now this is not the End. It is not even the beginning of the End.
But it is, perhaps, the end of the Beginning.”

I’m from Kansas and;
Wicked Witch of the West: You cursed brat! Look what you’ve done! I’m melting! melting! Oh, what a world! What a world! Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness? Oooooh, look out! I’m going! Oooooh! Ooooooh!

Rob G.

This is very unfortunate – since it is always good to have cost effective “non-polluting” energy supply, whether or not AGW is true. But the problem was not the motivation, it was partly economics and partly science. For example, when Chinese companies can dump the toxic byproduct silicon tetrachloride in the ground, when in the West it has to be recycled (justifiably so) at a much higher cost, thus making the Western solar cell industry non-competitive. If we can find a new cost effective way of treating/handling SiCl4, then it would be different. The government has invested too much money too fast before the technology was even ready, and as a result it got a bad name. But there are many exceptions, Bloom energy is doing very well, for example. Hopefully the ITER will perfect the fusion reactor in not too distant future. But I find the situation as an unfortunate one – this is no a victory for anyone.

James Ard

This could be where it finally ends. When people start watching their hard earned money going down the trash shoot, they start paying attention.

So long as green energy is driven by politics instead of technology and market forces, it will continue to be an economic dead weight as flawed, untested or unready technologies are rushed out the door. The inevitable is never surprising to those who are paying attention.

_Jim says:
May 17, 2012 at 9:33 am
(Unless you meant that Germany had all but completely overrun Europe successfully …)
===================================================================
I am going to give the Scot the benefit of the doubt and assume he meant WWI (in which case he would be correct.

Hoser

Scottish Sceptic says:
May 17, 2012 at 9:00 am

I’ll give you the Battle of Britain, but that victory was made possible in part due to Hitler’s limited understanding of military strategy. It is absolutely true if your heroic RAF pilots had not persisted in the face of terrible losses, the battle would have been lost. At the same time, if it were not for Lend-Lease, you’d be speaking German now. We lost many heroic merchant marine sailors keeping your people armed.
http://www.usmm.org/casualty.html
Furthermore, our supplies kept the Russians in the battle. If Guderian’s operation Barbarossa had been successful (http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/heinz_guderian.htm) the Russians would not have drawn the huge mass of the German Wehrmacht East, and Western Europe never would have been retaken.
The US 8th Air Force, for example, lost thousands of men and aircraft in daylight bombing raids, easy to spot by AA gunners and enemy fighters. The RAF flew at night, and were heroes as well.
http://www.taphilo.com/history/8thaf/8aflosses.shtml
http://www.angelfire.com/ct/ww2europe/stats.html
The US fought the bulk of the Pacific War. Without our sacrifices, Aussies and Kiwis would have been enslaved by the Emperor of Japan.
There are more troubles in this world just waiting for a chance to do us harm. It is far far better that we work together to oppose them, even if we have the occasional disagreement.
D. King says:
May 17, 2012 at 9:45 am

Thank you.

Tom G(ologist)

Latitude: You might be right about some of the drop being atrtributable to the Greek situation. However, considering that no other singe GROUP of related stocks has taken a similar hit, I suspect it is more than just greece, et.al Euro-Zoners

Skiphil

DirkH
Thanks for the link! The quote attributed to Peter Heller is notable:
“However, having no technical understanding is a disadvantage when political intentions get poured into legislation without taking physical science and laws into consideration. “

George E. Smith;

Please note the heading on that hockey graph; not a global phenomenon at all; just a local northern hemisphere anomaly.

jaypan

Green companies can’t survive in the real world, governments can’t anymore and taxpayers won’t waste money forever, failed predictions cannot be hidden and fear-mongering not upheld for a long time, so it’s the stupid economy now that kicks in, finally.
Slowly returning to reality and common sense after billions have been wasted and people have even died. Now some alarmists will face the end of a comfortable career, or worse. Can’t wait to see this happen.

To the Scotish Sceptic: I find your comment about the timing of the USA’s entry into the second world war to be insulting to the vast amount of dead and injured and those who fought and lived through the carnage of pulling europes’ hopes out of the fires of defeat. You, in my humbel opinion, have expressed a despicable statement and should be treated with contempt.

George E. Smith;

Well at the just concluded Las Vegas LightFair International, one of the strangest exhibits, was an LED “Downlight” to sit on top of a pole, in your parking lot, car dealership, or wherever. It came with a built in umbrella to protect it from the rain, sun, cats and dogs, or falling frogs. The umbrella served double duty, since it was a silicon solar cell panel.
What’s Up With This picture ?

KarlM

I think you may be misreading the chart a bit. The runup from 2005 is due in all likelihood to the 2005 Energy Bill, which had some pretty heavy-duty renewable subsidies in it, I think. The crash comes in the fourth quarter of 2008, not 2009, which coincides with the financial meltdown.