Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
The quote above is from Lord of the Rings, an exchange between Gollum and Smeagol, and it encapsulates my latest results from looking into the Shakun 2012 paper, “Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation” (paywalled, at Nature hereinafter Shakun2012). I discussed the paper in my post “Dr. Munchausen Explains Science By Proxy“. Please see that post for the underlying concepts and citations.
When I left off in that post of mine, I had investigated each of the 80 proxies used in Shakun2012. I plotted them all, and I compared them to the CO2 record used in their paper. I showed there was no way that the proxies could support the title of the paper. Figure 1 recaps that result, showing the difficulty of establishing whether CO2 leads or lags the warming.
Figure 1. All proxies (green dots) from Shakun2012 (Excel spreadsheet). CO2 values digitized from Shakun 2012 Figure 1a. There is pretty good agreement between the warming and the changes in CO2.
Note that the proxies say the earth generally warmed from the last ice age, starting somewhere about 15,000 BC, and the warming lasted until about 9,000 BC. Since then, the proxies have the greatest agreement (darkest green). They say that the globe generally cooled over the length of the Holocene, the current interglacial period since the last ice age.
Today I was thinking about that single record that they used for the CO2 changes. I got to wondering what other ice core CO2 records might show about the change in CO2. So I went and downloaded every ice core CO2 record that I could find that covered the time period 26,000 BC to modern times. I found a number of ice core records that cover the period.
Then I collated all of them in Excel, saved them as a CSV file, opened the file in R, and plotted every ice core CO2 record that covered the record from 26,000 BC up to the present. I standardized them over the same period covered by the Shakun2012 CO2 data. There was excellent agreement between the Shakun2012 data and the ice core records I had downloaded … but there was also a surprise.
Figure 2 shows the surprise …
Figure 2. As in Figure 1. Black circles show Shakun2012 CO2. Additional colored dots show the ice core CO2 records which have data from 26,000 BC to the present.
Dang, I didn’t expect that rise in CO2 that started about 6,000 BC. I do love climate science, it always surprises me … but the big surprise was not what the ice core records showed. It was what the Shakun2012 authors didn’t show.
I’m sure you can see just what those bad-boy scientists have done. Look how they have cut the modern end of the ice core CO2 record short, right at the time when CO2 started to rise again …
I leave the readers to consider the fact that for most of the Holocene, eight centuries millennia or so, half a dozen different ice core records say that CO2 levels were rising pretty fast by geological standards … and despite that, the temperatures have been dropping over the last eight millennia …
And I leave everyone to ponder how far climate “science” has fallen, that a tricksy study of this nature can be published in Nature, and can get touted around the world as being strong support for the AGW hypothesis. The only thing this study supports is the need for better peer review, and at a more basic level, better science education.
My best to all, stay skeptical,
w.
Source data:
ICE CORE CO2 DATA: All ice core CO2 data are from the NOAA Paleoclimatology site, the “Ice Core Gateway” page, in the section “Gases”.
[UPDATE] A hat tip to Jostein, in the comments he points out that the original Shakun Nature paper is here (pdf).
Alvin says:
April 8, 2012 at 1:15 pm
I was hoping so, but I guess my invitation must have gotten lost in the mail … I spoke at a previous conference, the 4th one. I livetooned it here and here. There was a video of my presentation somewhere on the web, I can’t find it now.
w.
Willis: “…I leave everyone to ponder how far climate “science” has fallen, that a tricksy study of this nature can be published in Nature … The only thing this study supports is the need for better peer review …” You are absolutely right. I sometimes wonder about that too when I see these tricksy studies. Nature is not the only one, though, Science is into it too. Trenberth and Fasullo published an article in Science tracing earth’s energy and mysteriously lost track of it. Everything was fine until 2004 when the energy began to leak away and by 2008 eighty percent of it was missing without a trace. They wondered about its whereabouts and asked: “If the extra energy has gone into the ocean, where has it gone?” Well, the ocean seemed to be unlikely on the face of it because they had just stated that “Since 2004, ~3000 Argo floats have provided regular temperature soundings of the upper 2000 m of the ocean, giving new confidence in the ocean heat content assessment.” Now what do you know, new equipment comes on line and energy makes a disappearing act! I don’t think this paper was ever reviewed because if it were the first thing any referee would have done is to send him back checking those buoys. The lesson is that rank has its privileges: if you are a big shot in the climate field the least you can expect is to have your paper waved past the editorial process.
The standard line is that CO2 effects were too small pre-WWII to have a significant effect on temperature, and being skeptical that marginal changes in CO2 are responsible for much temperature change post-WWII, I have no trouble accepting that, but Willis is right: for those who take the opposite view, the increasing levels of CO2 over the Holocene ought to cause warming.
Googling Law Dome CO2 images to verify Willis’ numbers, guess who pops up with the first 10,000 year image? John Cook:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=95
His commentary does not accord with his graph:
Every time I see a Temp/CO2 record like this it seems there is one big obvious question: “What caused temps and CO2 to stop their rapid rise and plateau appx 8000-9000 years ago?
It would seem that is the direct signature of the climate “thermostat” mechanism. Temps had been rising rapidly along with CO2 and then they abruptly stopped, and remained relatively stable with minor cooling trend since.
I found some info on the “8200 year event” – here is a note regarding some possibilities:
Whatever triggered the response was strong enough to cause a dramatic shift – from rapid rising temps and CO2 to the long, stable temp period we’ve seen since.
These graphs of the very stable temp record over the last 8000+ years – which show the recent warming the AGW side bases all their doom and gloom, sky is falling meme on – show that the recent warming is not even outside the normal variation of the last 8000+ years of stable temps.
That is what made me a sceptic. If the warming they are scare mongering about, when looked at in even a 8000-9000 year period does not even break thru the natural variability of that time period (let alone when reviewed in climate cycle time frames) then how can it be of ANY import or concern.
If one glacial to interglacial climate cycle is one climate “day” (lasting appx 115,000 years) that would make the last 8500 years equal to appx 1 3/4 hours of that one climate cycle “day” – less than 8%. How can a temp change that is within the historical natural variability range of a time period comprising less than 8% of a single typical climate cycle have any statistical relevance regarding climate change at all?
[Note: “Lincoln Sparrow” is the same poster as “R Kcin” and “Marcella Twixt”. ~dbs, mod.]
A serious question: does WUWT make a deliberate practice of selectively “leaking” posts thought to be anonymous? If so (as the above evidence indicates), then what selection criteria is WUWT presently using in making the determination to “leak” or not? And do WUWT’s readers have the right to know the WUWT’s “leak” criteria?
[Reply: Sockpuppetry violates site Policy. For example, you also post as “Frederick Davies”. ~dbs, mod.]
Question: If ~300 ppm is not high enough to stop an ice age, how high would CO2 levels have to be to stop one?
~1000 ppm…..well, no
+2000ppm……well, no again
Thanks Willis for your excellent article and ongoing explanation.
Peer review in climate science journals has once again been shown as a flawed and ‘tricksy’ process. Some of these science journals make themselves less relevant the more they publish. In contrast Anthony and contributors on WUWT have enabled instant ‘peer review’ by both unbiased and biased scientists (and a mixed audience).
It is also useful to read posts from people with ‘questionable’ views as it enables insight into their mindset, occasionally they even forward a good argument and it is not good to surround yourself with ‘yes men’ (journals take note). I am sure I’m not the only one who finds it helpful when contributors reveal relevant verifiable history about some of these people. I also find the moderators do a good job of removing nasty malicious or over the top comments (even mine).
Most of my contributions tend to be of a satirical nature, hopefully on themes and people who deserve it and if I infrequently raise a smile that is a success. Sometimes it’s good to ‘bring it down a notch’ and call on ‘Flash Gordon’ when alarmists say we only have hours to save the Earth.
Thanks Anthony, Willis and contributors.
All this and no paywall!
DocMartyn says:
April 8, 2012 at 7:33 am
“Climate sensitivity is not constrained by the last two decades of imperfect satellite data, but rather the paleoclimate record.”
NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt
Richard Alley’s position denies Gavin’s position starting at 23:00
Alley fights to tell staff members at Penn State that scientists’ “Global Warming” is not based on the so called “broken hockey sticks”, but on the satellite record.
Willis,
The BBC journalist’s email address is at the end of the article: Jonathan.Amos-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
…how about asking him openly and directly if he’s now going to retract or correct his article.
I am trying to understand why the graph scales do not match the perimeter of the graph.
One thing that Willis’ analysis shows is that ice core CO2 data are very poor as a proxie for global temperature as compared to the O18 index. I suggest that the actual atmospheric CO2 concentrations were considerably higher when we had higher temperatures as indicated by the O18 index. I further suggest that a more accurate estimate of pre-historic CO2 concentrations can be obtained by establishing a modern day global temperature/atmospheric CO2 relationship (not a model fudge factor) and work backwards using O18 as the temperature proxie. In so doing, we should be able to settle the lead/lag debate.
A. Scott says:
April 8, 2012 at 1:50 pm
How can a temp change that is within the historical natural variability range of a time period comprising less than 8% of a single typical climate cycle have any statistical relevance regarding climate change at all?
========================
It doesn’t……………you can’t use your brain to play this game
I leave the readers to consider the fact that for most of the Holocene, eight millennia or so, half a dozen different ice core records say that CO2 levels were rising pretty fast by geological standards … and despite that, the temperatures have been dropping over the last eight millennia …
———–
So what are you trying to say here Willis? That this graph proves that rises in global temperature do not cause CO2 out gassing from the oceans? Which would be proof that that this favorite climate skeptic and climate warmist argument is wrong.
That’s laudably skeptical of you Willis to follow where the data leads irrespective of whether it supports your initial position.
Any ideas why CO2 and temperature are going in opposite directions?
Lazy,
Consider that the ice core CO2 data are a poor proxie of the actual pre-historic atmospheric concentrations of CO2. We don’t really know what happens to the air bubbles under the extreme pressures of the many meters of ice.
Willis, what is the scale for CO2? And can you please put a key on the graph?
Thanks, NQ
Thanks dbs, mod.
Why do some people think it is acceptable to post under multiple names?
I wonder… : < (
Richard (hot under the collar)
Lazy says:
“Any ideas why CO2 and temperature are going in opposite directions?”
If you could ever get over your fixation on “carbon” propaganda, you might conclude that CO2 may not have the effect claimed. And of course there is also the well established CO2 lag time, which allows for divergence.
Lazy, I am trying to understand which graphs you are referring to.
Hugo M says:
April 8, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Volker Doormann said on April 8, 2012 at 11:24 am:
“The unanswered question is: What power in Watts have and where are the terestrial climate change drivers?
If they would be on Earth, why then the terrestrial temperatures follow heliocentric (tide) functions?”
http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/vo_m4k.gif
Volker,
what is the value of Pearson’s r for these two time series?
I don’t know. I have no tool to compute the value, but maybe you can check it out from the data (links in the graph)..
My point was my general questions here to whom it concerns.
The heliocentric climate world view seems to be an anathema by the peer here, well known that the saw tooth like oscillations can easy be calculated out of the sun’s geometry and the photon diffusion time after Prof. R. Ehrlich:
http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/bentic_f_graph.jpg
It seems people more fight holding magazines clean than fighting for truth in science.
V.
Sorry, correct link is
http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/bentic_f_graph.gif
V
[Note: “Lincoln Sparrow” is the same poster as “R Kcin” and “Marcella Twixt” … “Evangeline Maergulis”, you also post as “Frederick Davies”. ~dbs, mod.]
It’s evident WUWT is working hard to identify anonymous posters … it’s less evident that WUWT is accurate in its identification attempts.
Considering that WUWT posts commonly contain personal abuse and threats against scientists (including this thread), and such threats go unchecked by WUWT moderators, perhaps maintaining anonymity is prudent … for everyone who posts here?
Certainly one can understand why the number of practicing scientists who post on WUWT is very nearly zero. That number of scientists will now diminish by one.
Comment: It’s sobering to contemplate that anonymizing networks that were conceived to protect the free speech of citizens against state tyranny and retribution, now find service in protecting the free speech of citizens against the too-high prevalence of WUWT-hosted abuse and threats.
REPLY: Oh, please.
First, We have a policy page. I don’t let certain people in my own home that abuse my trust, and my home on the Internet is no different. People that don’t wish to abide by policy get called out on and if they don’t change their behavior, end up getting banned. There have been a few. For example I banned recently a person known as Victor Barney for making hateful racist comments and comments about the intelligence of women. I suppose by your logic, you’d support him taking on a new persona to get around the ban and spew the same hate all over again?
Second, Show us “abuse and threats”. I’d really like to see those myself.
Third, People are welcome to comment on all sides of the issue, however we have limits, based on our experience and made quite clear in the WUWT policy page. For the same reason I don’t allow people in my real home to act boorishly, so it goes on my home on the Internet.
Fourth, Like any private establishment, we reserve the right to refuse service to anyone. If any of our policy bothers you, you know where the door is.
Fifth, WordPress.com our hosting service, expressly supplies the IP adresses of all commenters, not only on our blog, but on every WordPress blog in existence. When we see multiple comments from the same IP address under differ handles, it is easy to identify, we don’t go looking for it.
Sixth, Our success stands on its own. We don’t plan to change policy for a few whiners or people that like to play shape shifting games or people that think shape shifting equates to free speech.
– Anthony Watts
Several people have said that orbital forcings are the reason for the decline in temperature over the holocene. As the earth goes around the sun, over time the eccentricity and the obliquity of the orbit slowly changes.
The problem with this theory is that the orbital forcings change the distribution of the sunlight, but barely change the total sunlight at all. Since there is no change in TOA insolation, why would that cool the earth?
The prevailing hypothesis is that the change in surface temperature is equal to the climate sensitivity times the change in total TOA forcing … and over the period in question there was no change in total forcing from variations in the earth’s orbit.
Nor is it at all clear what effect the change in the distribution of the sunlight would make. Generally the changes meant warmer summers and cooler winters at high latitudes … would that warm or cool the planet?
Regards …
w.
“there must be a scientist on the author list”
What does that mean? Isn’t the work — data right, process right, math right — more important than the credentials?
These two posts of Willis’ remind me of a comment by Tom Wigley:
“Although these all show the hockey stick shape, the differences between them prior to 1850 make me very nervous. If I were on the greenhouse deniers’ side, I would be inclined to focus on the wide range of paleo results and the differences between them as an argument for dismissing them all.”
If the proxies are so over the map, can any of them be trusted to be representation of past temperatures?
Does Nature want to be aware of this? No, certainly not!
When you find periods where the two ( GHGs and temp) do not move in concert, you know one thing: all other things were not equal. You don’t know and you can’t know that GHGs don’t increase warming. You don’t and can’t because fundamental physics is correct. We known that its correct because we building working devices based on that physics.
Man has build functioning devices long before we understood how they worked. We built steam engines even as we subscribed to the phlogiston theory and had a woeful grasp of thermodynamics. We built dynamos, which worked, based on a totally wrong understanding of electricity. (Hence why positive “current” flows the wrong way compared to the actual electrons.)
Some humility about our understanding is useful at all times. And particularly so in new areas, such as climate science. My bet is that almost everything we “know” will be wrong, at least in details.