Friday Funny – how to do climate graphs

Let me preface this tutorial from Josh with a quote from my favorite television show.  – “Bazinga!”

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Bazinga, indeed.

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Gator
February 3, 2012 10:05 am

WARNING! Graphic content.

Ken Hall
February 3, 2012 10:11 am

Alarmist cherrypicking of dates = good. Genuinely sceptical cherrypicking of dates = bad.
You can establish cooling, warming, or static trends depending on whatever arbitrary dates you cherrypick It is the alarmist believers of the cAGW religion who insist that their own cherry picking is not cherrypicking and that the only accurate and legitimate dates are ones which show warming and any other dates are “cherry picked”.

Gary Hladik
February 3, 2012 10:12 am

“That’s just wrong.”
Also from TBBT.

Dave
February 3, 2012 10:16 am

Video – Funny, Funny, Just so Funny – I laughed till I cried. Yes this was the Friday funny’s at their best.
Regards to Gator.

Editor
February 3, 2012 10:25 am

And H/t to MrSean2k for finding the IPCC graph

February 3, 2012 10:34 am

It’s worse than that. If SkS says we’re in a “pause” of global warming, nobody says a peep. If 16 scientists say there’s a lack of global warming, the cognoscenti erupt. Even if it’s the same period everybody’s talking about.

February 3, 2012 10:36 am

May I also point out, the Don’t graph is much more compatible with the alarmists’ idea of tipping points than the idiotic straight line.

NotTheAussiePhilM
February 3, 2012 10:36 am

As my primary school teacher used to say, ‘Two wrong’s don’t make a right!’

February 3, 2012 10:39 am

Josh can I put this on the wiki please?

Jeremy
February 3, 2012 10:40 am

I cannot stand that show. It’s not the acting. It’s not even the concept. It’s the absurd stereotyping of smart people that Hollywood gets away with. Apparently to be a genius you are required to be socially inept, at least according to the pretty people of the world. That’s the take-away message from the absurd characters, at least for me.
If I want funny and smart, I’ll re-watch “Real Genius”, tyvm.

jb
February 3, 2012 11:00 am

Right, because they weren’t socially inept (except, perhaps, for Chris) in Real Genius.

sharper00
February 3, 2012 11:13 am

The SkS graphic shows that within a period of overall rising trend you can spend almost the entire time claiming a falling trend by referencing short periods.
The IPCC graphic shows that within a period of overall rising trend there are multidecadal periods of increases that are higher than the overall trend.
All “MrSean2k”, Josh and others have done is shown they didn’t understand the point.

PaulH
February 3, 2012 11:27 am

I started watching TBBT when people told me I remind them of Sheldon. Don’t get me wrong, I’m flattered. I just don’t see it. Plus, I like string theory. 😉

Gras Albert
February 3, 2012 11:30 am

Anthony
Here is my contribution, feel free to use it if appropriatecomment image

February 3, 2012 11:38 am

Does anybody know why a multidecadal temporal window is “science” in a planet whose existence has lasted 4.5B and counting?

Lew Skannen
February 3, 2012 11:49 am

Someone should also point out to the likes of SS the difference between “cherry picking” (does not prove a theory) and a “counterexample” (does disprove a theory).

February 3, 2012 11:54 am

It’s worse than that, they took the 1940-1970 trend and extrapolated that to an Ice Age, then took the 1970 – present trend and repeatedly extrapolated to Warmocalypse.
Of course, the policy prescriptions were close to identical in broad terms.

sharper00
February 3, 2012 11:56 am

“Does anybody know why a multidecadal temporal window is “science” in a planet whose existence has lasted 4.5B and counting?”
Approximately 30 years is the period at which short term variability tends to cancel out and reveal the true climate response to external factors. The longer the time period the less chaotic and variable the response is e.g. over 100 years increasing solar activity will lead to higher temperatures regardless of how complex the climate system is or how poorly it is understood.
The shorter the time period the more variability, complexity and chaotic elements have to be understood e.g. why is winter 2011 warmer than 2010, why is winter 2010 colder than 2009. The answer to that relies on a very precise understanding of the very specific phenomenon that drive short term variability. This is not understood which is why even in, say, October, nobody could reliability predict whether winter 2011 would be cold or not.
The age of the Earth is a complete misdirection. It has no bearing whatsoever on how climate behaves nor do factors in play 1.2 billion years have any relevance beyond understanding how the planet worked 1.2 billion years ago.

February 3, 2012 11:57 am

sharper00
Great, now draw a graph from the MWP.

February 3, 2012 12:08 pm

Sharper00 – you’re mistaken. The 30 years period has been plucked out of…thin air and everybody in the field knows there are climate phenomena at all timescales, from seconds to geological eras. As you won’t believe me, please believe Gavin Schmidt.
As for longer periods showing less of a chaotic behavior I guess ice ages never happened.

sharper00
February 3, 2012 12:24 pm

“The 30 years period has been plucked out of…thin air and everybody in the field knows there are climate phenomena at all timescales”
Nobody said there were not climate phenomena at all timescales. As above, on longer timescaled short term phenomena tend to cancel out. By their nature long term climate phenomena do not drive short term variability. Your assertion that the 30 year period is simply an assertion without evidence or suppport, I look forward to your body of work showing that can achieve superior analysis and understanding of the Earth’s climate using your method.
“As for longer periods showing less of a chaotic behavior I guess ice ages never happened.”
I don’t think you know what chaotic behaviour is. Chaotic systems exhibit a high degree of variability in their behaviour based on small differences in conditions, for example if you’re trying to predict exactly when a hurricane will form it’s very difficult even small factors can make the difference between nothing happening and a hurricane happening.

Rosco
February 3, 2012 12:34 pm

Every graph I have ever seen based on credible science – unlike certain hockey sticks – shows a cyclic nature similar to a sine curve.
The slope of this cyclic curve is somewhat increasing BUT is always exaggerated to generate fear and always shows an anomaly or an exaggerated scale on the vertical axis – show a range from say 0 to 20 C on the temperature axis and there is almost no discernable change.
And doesn’t anybody question the ridiculous 3 decimal place accuracy often quoted in annual figures when the actual measurements are unlikely to be even 1 decimal place accurate ????
All SkS do is preach alarm and insult anyone who uses their human right to think for themselves and simply disagree with SkS’s “cult” of beliefs – as cults do not allow questioning of the wisdom handed down.

February 3, 2012 12:37 pm

Here are some natural oscillations
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-NVa.htm
last graph shows spectral response showing the first significant ‘clean’ component at 30+ years.

sharper00
February 3, 2012 12:43 pm

@Rosco
“Every graph I have ever seen based on credible science – unlike certain hockey sticks – shows a cyclic nature similar to a sine curve.”
You should be careful of thinking like this, confirmation bias is the most difficult type of error to detect and correct. When looking for a pattern it’s dangerous to discard anything that doesn’t match it.

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