NOTE: Thread #1 (the original still available here) has gotten unwieldy due to size. Many browsers can’t complete the load now. So, I’m starting this second open thread on the issue and moving all updates here. It will remain a sticky post for a few days like the original. New posts will appear below this one – Anthony
UPDATE62: 12/6/11 12:01 AM Some results from a recent survey of IT professionals lead me to speculate on a direction for a “whodunnit” for Climategate 1 and 2.
UPDATE61: 12/5/11 9AM Mann o Mann, it seems the hockey stick was based on “questionable statistics” according to email 2383. Others discussed this.
UPDATE60: Out of context comes understanding – a collection of contextual quotes from Climategate 2.0
UPDATE59: It seems that WUWT graphics have found their way into lectures at the University of East Anglia, first alluded to in a UEA Climategate 2 email where Phil Jones got it wrong. Happy to help.
UPDATE58: 11:55PM PST 12/3 The Weekly Standard summarizes Climategate II in a cover story titled Scientists Behaving Badly Part II. WUWT is featured prominently.
UPDATE57: 8:45 AM PST 12/2 The Team makes a call to get a PhD thesis revoked of a skeptic they disagree with. Only one problem (besides the ethics) their scientific basis is bogus.
UPDATE56: 8AM PST 12/2 Climate Science and “The Cause”
UPDATE 55: 12AM PST 12/2 Dr. Kevin Trenberth can’t seem to tolerate a dissenting idea, and suggests a scientist at the National Hurricane Center be fired.
UPDATE54: 5PM PST 12/1 Steve McIntyre talks with Andrew Bolt about Climategate 2 in this video interview
UPDATE53: 9AM PST 12/1 Apparently a kid and his science fair project can invalidate the core premise of Mike Mann’s hockey stick, according to his dad, who happens to be an NCAR scientist.
UPDATE52: 11PM PST 11/30 BOMBSHELL Steve McIntyre has discovered more evidence of “hide the decline” and it’s worse than we thought.
UPDATE51: 7PM PST Tying WWF, UEA, Fenton Communications and “commissioned research” all together
UPDATE50: 1:15 PM PST 11/30 The genesis of RealClimate.org seems to have been found. Surprisingly, the BBC’s Roger Harrabin seems to have been involved in the genesis meeting.
UPDATE49: 10:00 AM PST 11/30 While not email related, just as Climategate breaks David Suzuki commits an egregious propaganda error second only to the 10:10 video where kids are blown up for not going along with carbon reduction schemes at school. He’s targeting kids and Santa Claus at Christmas – Santa’s home is melting.
UPDATE48: 9:20 AM PST 11/30 Dr. Phil Jones on the “lack of warming” -he may need a backup plan.
UPDATE47: 9AM PST 11/30 Fudge factor collection in the emails, or is climate modeling a social issue?
UPDATE46: A look at UEA/CRU’s email infrastructure and email systems in general suggests that the “deleted” emails to/from Phil Jones and others at CRU probably still exist and can be subject to FOIA.
UPDATE45: 1:30PM PST 11/29 If there was award for clueless timing, this would win it no contest: Penn State to lecture on “climate ethics”
UPDATE44: 9AM PST 11/29 Mike Mann reprises the role of Captain Queeg in The Cain Mutiny when seeing de Freitas being vindicated by the publisher of Climate Research (see the update in the article).
UPDATE43: 8AM PST 11/29 An Excel Spreadsheet with Climategate 1 and 2 emails ordered chronologically should be helpful in determining that supposedly missing”context”
UPDATE42: 7AM PST 11/29 The CRU crew says: “what we really meant was…”
UPDATE41: 4AM PST 11/29 James Padget schools Steve Zwick – Guide to Defending the Indefensible. Some people just can’t handle Climategate.
UPDATE40: 12AM PST 11/29 Penn State has the same “look the other way” problem with Climategate as they did with the Jerry Sandusky scandal.
UPDATE39: It seems “vexatious” is Dr. Phil Jones favorite new feeling word after summer 2009.
UPDATE38: Severinghaus says Mike Mann didn’t give a straight answer regarding why trees don’t work as thermometers after 1950
UPDATE37: Climate sensitivity can’t be quantified with the current data according to NCAR’s Wigley, with paleo data – even less so.
UPDATE36: Dr. Chris de Freitas responds to the ugly attempt by The Team at getting him fired.
UPDATE 35: “Stroppy” Dr Roger Pielke Sr. shows just how much a “old boys network” the peer review process is.
UPDATE34: More internal dissent of the hockey stick. Mann tries to beat down the concern over “hide the decline” while not letting the dissenting scientist know there was a decline.
UPDATE33: Gobsmacking! Rob Wilson proves McIntyre and McKittrick correct in an email to colleagues at CRU, showing that when random noise time series are fed into Mike Mann’s procedure, it makes “hockey sticks”. The confirmation that M&M is right never leaves the walls of CRU.
UPDATE32: 9:30PM PST 11/27 BREAKING – Canada to pull out of Kyoto protocol. Another Climategate fallout ?
UPDATE31: 4:30PM PST 11/27 BOMBSHELL An absolutely disgusting string of communications that shows the tribal attempt at getting an editor of a journal fired on made up issues – all because he allowed a publication that didn’t agree with “the Team”. This is ugly, disturbing, and wrong on every level.
UPDATE30: 9:45 AM PST 11/27 Newsbytes. Major crack in the warming wall at the UK prime minister’s office. BBC in collusion with Climategate scientists.
UPDATE29: 9AM PST 11/27 The saga of the missing station data at CRU and the “pants on fire” defense of it as told by Willis Eschenbach. Dr. Phil Jones is between a rock and a hard place, quite.
UPDATE 28: 1:30PM PST 11/26 An email shows the UNFCCC considers activists an essential tool saying “…organized and deeply committed environmental activism has long been an important part of the UNFCCC process…”
UPDATE27: 7AM PST 11/26 Climategate 2 features prominently in WUWT’s newest feature “Hits and Misses”
UPDATE26: 2:50 PM 11/25 Two separate examples show obstruction and collusion by members of “The Team” to prevent any dissenting science from being properly considered by the NRC in 2007.
UPDATE25: 2PM 11/25 Keith Briffa asks another colleague to delete email to avoid FOIA
UPDATE24: 1:30PM 11/25 New Climategate 1/2 combined search engine here
UPDATE23: 9AM PST 11/25 via bishop-hill, strange infighting:
#4101 – Edward Cook tells Phil Jones that Mike Mann is “serious enemy” and “vindictive”. Mike Mann had criticized his work.
Apparently Mann went “a little crazy” over a paper showing the MWP exists.
Details here
UPDATE22: 11AM PST 11/24 Am unsurprising admission from a BBC environmental reporter to Dr. Phil Jones that they really have no impartiality at all (ho ho) when it comes to climate issues.
UPDATE21: 9:50AM PST 11/24 “FOIA2011″ and Climategate – A Chinese-POTUS connection?
UPDATE20: 9:30AM PST 11/24 World renowned climatologist Phil Jones can’t even plot a temperature trend line in Excel. I’ve offered a solution that WUWT readers can help with.
UPDATE19: 9AM PST 11/24 Gail Combs finds some disturbing connections between the Team and The World Bank
UPDATE18: 1:45PM Scott Mandia, aka “Supermandia” wins the award for the silliest climategate rebuttal, ever. It’s like stupid on steroids.
UPDATE17: 12:55PM PST 11/23 Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has an excellent piece on “Gatekeeping” related to Trenberth and the Pielke-Landsea hurricane paper and the IPCC. You may recall Landsea resigned from the IPCC over this. Pielke says: “The gatekeeping of the IPCC process is abundantly clear, and the shadowy suggestion that they can find out who the reviewers are from another colleague is a bit unsettling as well.” Trenberth looks particularly bad here.
UPDATE16: 11:30AM PST 11/23 Insider scientist at CRU says our “reaction to Mike Mann’s errors was not particularly honest” – story here
UPDATE15: 7:50AM 11/23 Ric Werme found an email from the late John L. Daly to Mike Mann and the team – it is well worth a read here
UPDATE14: 2:45 AM PST 11/23 Willis Eschenbach offers a guest post here explaining how his FOIA requests went astray. Mr. David Palmer was the Freedom of Information Officer for the CRU at the time. In the newly released emails, he expresses his frustration with the whole procedure.
UPDATE13: 12:05AM 11/23 Craig Stone writes:
I have published a searchable database of the emails at http://foia2011.org
All email addresses and phone numbers are automatically redacted. It’s extremely rudimentary right now, but I’ll be refining the functionality and improving the search capabilities and navigation over the course of the next week.
UPDATE 12: 9:30 PM PST We’ve known for some time that Al Gore made up a bunch of claims in his AIT movie that simply weren’t true. Now this revelation in the new email batch shows that in the case of Kilimanjaro’s disappearing snows, even Phil Jones and Dr. Lonnie Thompson don’t believe global warming is the cause, even though Thompson put out a press release nearly a year ago saying just that. Told ya so. Pants on fire and all that. Anything for “the cause” right?
UPDATE11: 4:45PM PST Kevin Trenberth gets all misty eyed and sing-songy at Christmas here
UPDATE10: 4:30PM PST Some thoughts on cracking the big remaining all.7z file here
UPDATE9: 2:25PM PST Josh weighs in with the first satirical cartoon here
UPDATE8: 140PM PST Mike Mann shows his true colors:
email 1680.txt
date: Wed, 29 Aug 2007 12:03:05 -0400
from: “Michael E. Mann”..
subject: Re: Something not to pass on
to: Phil Jones
Phil,
I would not respond to this. They will misrepresent and take out of context anything you give them. This is a set up. They will certainly publish this, and will ignore any evidence to the contrary that you provide. s They are going after Wei-Chyung because he’s U.S. and there is a higher threshold for establishing libel. Nonetheless, he should
consider filing a defamation lawsuit, perhaps you too.
I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his thusfar unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests.Perhaps the same needs to be done w/ this Keenan guy.
I believe that the only way to stop these people is by exposing them and discrediting them….
UPDATE7: 1:20 PM PST Phil Jones and Tom Wigley calls another scientist (The former state climatologist of California) a “jerk” for publishing his UHI results.
UPDATE6: 12:08PM PST Here’s an email that collaborates a radio interview I did in Seattle with Thomas Peterson in summer 2007, yes these are 100% real emails, no doubt whatsoever now. More here: Climategate 2.0 – NCDC: “Mr. Watts gave a well reasoned position”
UPDATE 5: 11:00AM PST In a statement, UEA doesn’t deny these emails, but posts about the whitewash investigations of the past, like they matter now.
UPDATE4: 9:45 AM PST I’ve changed the headline from Climategate 2.0 to Climategate 2.0 emails – They’re real and they’re spectacular! with a hat tip to Jerry Seinfeld. The relevance of that headline is particularly interesting in the context of where Dr. James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has his office in NYC.
UPDATE3: 9:25 AM PST – Having read a number of emails, and seeing this quote from Mike Mann in the Guardian:
When asked if they were genuine, he said: “Well, they look like mine but I hardly see anything that appears damning at all, despite them having been taken out of context. I guess they had very little left to work with, having culled in the first round the emails that could most easily be taken out of context to try to make me look bad.”
I’m going to conclude they are the real deal. I’ve posted a BitTorrent link to the file below. One big difference between Climategate 1 and 2 is that in 1, it took days for the MSM to catch on, now they are on top of it.
UPDATE2: 8:45AM PST The Guardian has a story up by Leo Hickman, and this excerpt suggests they may be the real deal:
Norfolk police have said the new set of emails is “of interest” to their investigation to find the perpetrator of the initial email release who has not yet been identified.
The emails appear to be genuine, but this has yet to be confirmed by the University of East Anglia. One of the emailers, the climate scientist Prof Michael Mann, has confirmed that he believes they are his messages.
UPDATE1: 8:20 AM PST These emails have not been verified yet, and this story was posted by one of my moderating staff while I was asleep. Until such time they are verified, tread lightly because without knowing what is behind the rest of the zip file, for all we know it’s a bunch of recipes and collection of lorem ipsum text files. I’m working to authenticate these now and will report when I know more – Anthony Watts
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Raymond says:
December 4, 2011 at 12:12 pm
Another academic fraud: http://badnewsfromthenetherlands.blogspot.com/2011/11/university-hides-academic-fraud.html
It has also become known this month that a senior researcher has resigned at the medical center of the university because the collection of his data was unverifiable.
which reminds a lot about… Jones? Others?
__________________________________________________
Boy the cases of fraud and other problems in science are coming out of the woodwork this fall!
Dutch psychologist falsified dozens of papers; suspended…. http://psychcrimereporter.wordpress.com/2011/11/14/dutch-psychologist-falsified-dozens-of-papers-suspended-from-university/
According to the US FDA, Cetero Research, a North Carolina based CRO, allegedly produced fake clinical trial documents and test results over a period of 5 years.
http://www.clinicalresearchsociety.org/2011/07/28/fda-says-cro-cetero-faked-trial-data-pharmas-may-need-to-redo-tests/
Scientists’ Elusive Goal: Reproducing Study Results
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203764804577059841672541590.html
Mention of “the invaluable WUWT” you might enjoy if you haven’t seen this yet!
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/climategate-part-ii_610926.html
Humour ?
http://www.theonion.com/articles/report-global-warming-may-be-irreversible-by-2006,26808/
Bob Woodward says sitting next to Al Gore is ‘taxing, unpleasant’
http://thehill.com/capital-living/in-the-know/197355-bob-woodward-sitting-next-to-gore-is-unpleasant-
excerpt:
Woodward offered up another tidbit from the conversation with his dinner companion. The investigative reporter asked the politician, more than five years after leaving office, how much the public knows about what went on during the Clinton administration. Gore replied, “One percent.”
Woodward admitted that revelation made him feel a bit icky, saying, “I kind of died inside and have to confess to having an unclean thought.”
He then dug a little deeper, asking Gore, if the former VP were to write a memoir, how much Americans would know then. Gore retorted, “Two percent.”
A spokeswoman for Gore had no comment.
I now ask myself what happens with Carbon Derivatives and those that deal in them if something similar to MF Global happens.
Let’s Make The Clawback Risk REAL
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=198650
excerpt:
One of the forum members pointed out something that was obvious to me when I wrote this morning’s Ticker, but might have gone over your head.
I want to make absolutely sure it doesn’t go over your head because if you’re wrong about this you could lose everything in your bank and investment accounts — every single dime.
FDIC / SIPC insured or not.
Recently Bank of America transferred a bunch of derivatives into their banking arm. “A bunch” means somewhere around $80 trillion worth.
Now pay very careful attention, because part of the bankruptcy “reform” law in 2005 placed derivative claims in front of depositors in a business failure – including a bank failure.
What JP Morgan is claiming in the MF Global case is that the derivative trade (which is exactly what a “Repo to Maturity” trade is – it’s a derivative) is entitled to preference in the case of MF Global over those who had cash there for safekeeping either as a margin deposit or just as free cash as you would hold free cash in a bank.
If a major bank blows up this very same claim, supported in existing Bankruptcy Law with the changes signed by George Bush in 2005, will be used to steal the entirety of your bank account, and if you detect the impending blowup shortly before it happens — say, 90 days before — you’re still exposed to the risk through clawback!
MangoChutney says: December 4, 2011 at 12:37 am
Oh, but – in context – MangoChutney, this is much worse than you might have thought:
The climate consensus coordinators’ cookbook
Is this really true?
http://uddebatt.wordpress.com/2011/12/06/anthony-watts-what-have-you-done/
Is this still going on, I thought you’d have moved on to something more interesting by now rather than this non-story…
REPLY: Only a non-story to you, and your opinion of it being a non-story doesn’t count unfortunately – Anthony
Mark Stoval, the following is quite a good report on the Climategate 1.0 emails, explaining their meanings and putting them into context.
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/climate-change/climategate-emails.pdf
I wonder whether the same author will write something for Climategate 2.0 ?
SteveE,
Judging by the thousands of comments which are still continuing, readers of the internet’s Best Science site obviously want to learn more about the total corruption of climate science by a small clique of self-serving connivers. What I would like to know is: why are you carrying water for them? What do you get out of it? Or do you just like being their water boy?
It’s very difficult to decipher WUWT’s arcane conspiracy theories spun out of 14-year-old emails — no two of these theories are alike.
In contrast, it’s very easy understand the latest findings of climate science, which affirm with ever-greater strength that AGW is real and serious.
It’s becoming clear too that a Republican presidential ticket that picks two-of-three from Romney, Gingrich, and Huntsman will — once the primaries are over — gently inform its conservative supporters that the climatologists were right all along.
Under these circumstances, it’s not clear what brand of skepticism WUWT should pursue. The present WUWT practice of simply ignoring 21st century climate science is not strong skepticism.
A physicist,
Do you still live in your mom’s basement, with no contact with the outside world?? That link is written by the serial liar Grant Foster [tamino] and the odious Rahmstorf of email infamy.
The abstract preposterously claims: “The adjusted data show warming at very similar rates to the unadjusted data, with smaller probable errors, and the warming rate is steady over the whole time interval.” Steady?
From that, you make the leap to politics, assuming that scientific skeptics are basing their conclusions on the presidential nomination process! Are you nuts?! There have been scores of comments here from folks on the liberal/left side of politics who completely reject the CAGW claims.
Maybe you should just relax, grab a comic book, and call up to your mom to send for some pizza. Because you’re not making any sense posting here.
[snip – over the top – Anthony]
Smokey and gnomish, with respect, every investor contemplating the risk-level of bonds for coal-fired power plants having a 20-40 year payout, and every admiral foreseeing arctic naval strategy in coming decades, and every politician crafting national and global energy policies, will be analyzing for themselves the reported climate-change trends … and it’s not self-evident (to me) that WUWT’s present style of skepticism contributes in any substantial sense to that analysis.
a physicist,
Thanx for that graph showing that the planet is still emerging along the same trend line from the LIA. Note that there is no acceleration in the natural warming trend, and that there was only minuscule anthro CO2 emitted in the 1880’s.
By shooting yourself in the foot with that graph, you’ve shown definitively that CO2 is a non-issue. As a matter of scientific fact, more CO2 is better. There is no downside at current or projected CO2 levels. Any honest, competent physicist would know that.
If you think this is a “non-story” why are you wasting your time on it? most of the rest of us think it is a story, or we would not be wasting precious time on it.
Don’t you love the noblesse oblige that have so much time to waste?
With respect, Smokey, every investor contemplating the risk-level of bonds for coal-fired power plants having a 20-40 year payout, and every admiral foreseeing arctic naval strategy in coming decades, and every politician crafting national and global energy policies, is aware of analyses that conclude the opposite.
Prediction: future political platforms and national energy policies, for liberals and conservatives alike, will follow fairly closely the foresighted model set over the past 20 years by Republicans for Environmental Protection (REP). And it is evident that Newt / Jon / Mitt already are taking measures to break this news gently to their supporters.
a physicist,
Please stop posting those “what if” links. If you are a real physicist then you know there is no empirical, testable evidence showing global harm due to human CO2 emissions. None.
Therefore, CO2 is ipso facto harmless. Further, CO2 is beneficial. There is ample evidence showing increased agricultural productivity due directly to enhanced CO2 levels. Citations and charts on request.
Should the natural warming trend from the LIA continue, millions of acres of new farmland will be opened up in places like Mongolia, Canada, Greenland and Siberia. In a world where one-third of the population subsists on less than $2 a day, a 2° – 3° rise in global temperature would be highly desirable, and a net benefit to the biosphere.
A rise like that seems unlikely. Sea levels are rising at the rate of only a few inches per century, indicating that more global warming is not lurking around the corner. And of course, the CO2=CAGW conjecture has been empirically falsified by the planet itself. After a ≈40% rise in [harmless, beneficial] CO2, there has been zero acceleration in the [natural] global warming trend.
Please try to think for yourself, and refrain from posting model-based nonsense written by people with a vested financial and professional interest in promoting climate alarmism. They are not credible, nor is the climate pal review process. If you’re going to link to something, link to unadjusted, verifiable data. Like your chart. I liked that. It fully supported the fact of natural global warming, and produced no eveidence that CO2 has any measurable effect.
OK the smokey -vs- “a physicist” war is getting old – both of you stop
Interesting events over the last 2 days…..
Schwarzenegger to GOP 2012 field: Move green-energy debate past Solyndra
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/197115-schwarzenegger-to-gop-2012-field-move-green-energy-debate-past-solyndra
Berkshire Buys $2 Billion Power Project in Buffett Solar Bet
http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LVTXLI6KLVRB01-7GR2GKJ41M22OSLLJAANOMEGT9
Now, Warren Buffet bought into Bank of America (BAC) awhile back,
http://dailybail.com/home/warren-buffett-i-dreamt-up-bank-of-america-deal-in-the-batht.html
which left everyone quite perplexed. Now we find out that BAC had moved their Merrill derivatives over to the Banking arm of BAC, Leaving the taxpayers at rick for those derivatives.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/bank-of-america-derivatives-transfer-attracts-lawmaker-scrutiny.html
In an earlier post here on this thread,
john says:
December 6, 2011 at 9:18 am
I cited that the MF Global situation give preferential treatment to derivatives and leaves depositors at risk, including clawbacks in case of failure. We know that the Global Warming Fraud is a financial scam and derivatives are the biggest part of it.
Photo of the day:
http://media.nowpublic.net/images/e4/5/e4594d60413a45a3aa6d436d4ae5bac0.jpg
This series is interesting
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=1516.txt&search=wealth+of+others
What exactly does “help the strawman along” mean?
Ben M @ur momisugly <a href=http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/30/climategate-2-0-emails-thread-2/#comment-815816
He’s talking about Steve McIntyre, not himself.
You think differently? How do you prove it? You can’t. A good example of the whole email shebang – quotes assumed to carry meaning when they are actually ambiguous, or, in many cases, belied by the context.
In the previous thread people were telling me that the emails’ meanings were obvious, when I saw them as equivocal (at best). I realize now that my ‘mistake’ was to not assume the authors were all liars and cheats in the first place. If I had only read the emails with that assumption, I would be on the same page as the skeptical commenters here.
Here’s the link to the ‘plausibly deniable accusations’ email exchange.
http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/1/FOIA/mail/1256735067.txt
In fact, it’s pretty obvious that he’s referring to McIntyre et al. At least, that reading is far easier to support than the alternative. Eg, who, amongst the players, is making accusations? Clearly it’s McIntyre, who has been the clear antagonist/on the offensive in the debate up to the time of the writing of these emails.
Andrew @ur momisugly http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/30/climategate-2-0-emails-thread-2/#comment-817208>here
It’s possible that the first week of December (first week of summer) was colder than the 29th coolest November in Australia. The East coast has been hit with near-winter temperatures, rain wet and wind. I’ve not seen anything like the weather in Sydney for this time of year. People are wearing jumpers (sweaters)! Just returned from the Sunshine Coast where I had to abandon scuba diving due to the inclement weather. The locals couldn’t believe what they were seeing. Summer? I want my money back.
Barry, the available data suggests that you are likely to be warmer soon.