Climategate 2.0 emails – They're real and they're spectacular!

A link to where to download the new FOIA2011.zip file is posted below the fold – This will be a top post for a few days -NEW STORIES APPEAR BELOW THIS ONE -I’ve also reversed the order of the updates to be newest at top for better visibility – Anthony

UPDATE50: 1:15 PM PST 11/30 The genesis of RealClimate.org seems to have been found. Surprisingly, the BBC’s Roger Harrabin seems to have been involved in the genesis meeting.

UPDATE49: 10:00 AM PST 11/30 While not email related, just as Climategate breaks David Suzuki commits an egregious propaganda error second only to the 10:10 video where kids are blown up for not going along with carbon reduction schemes at school. He’s targeting kids and Santa Claus at Christmas – Santa’s home is melting.

UPDATE48: 9:20 AM PST 11/30 Dr. Phil Jones on the  “lack of warming” -he may need a backup plan.

UPDATE47: 9AM PST 11/30 Fudge factor collection in the emails, or is climate modeling a social issue?

UPDATE46: A look at UEA/CRU’s email infrastructure and email systems in general suggests that the “deleted” emails to/from Phil Jones and others at CRU probably still exist and can be subject to FOIA.

UPDATE45: 1:30PM PST 11/29 If there was award for clueless timing, this would win it no contest: Penn State to lecture on “climate ethics”

UPDATE44: 9AM PST 11/29 Mike Mann reprises the role of Captain Queeg in The Cain Mutiny when seeing de Freitas being vindicated by the publisher of Climate Research (see the update in the article).

UPDATE43: 8AM PST 11/29 An Excel Spreadsheet with Climategate 1 and 2 emails ordered chronologically should be helpful in determining that supposedly missing”context”

UPDATE42:  7AM PST 11/29 The CRU crew says:  “what we really meant was…”

UPDATE41: 4AM PST 11/29 James Padget schools Steve Zwick – Guide to Defending the Indefensible. Some people just can’t handle Climategate.

UPDATE40: 12AM PST 11/29 Penn State has the same “look the other way” problem with Climategate as they did with the Jerry Sandusky scandal.

UPDATE39: It seems “vexatious” is Dr. Phil Jones favorite new feeling word after summer 2009.

UPDATE38: Severinghaus says Mike Mann didn’t give a straight answer regarding why trees don’t work as thermometers after 1950

UPDATE37: Climate sensitivity can’t be quantified with the current data according to NCAR’s Wigley, with paleo data – even less so.

UPDATE36: Dr. Chris de Freitas responds to the ugly attempt by The Team at getting him fired.

UPDATE 35: “Stroppy” Dr Roger Pielke Sr. shows just how much a “old boys network” the peer review process is.

UPDATE34: More internal dissent of the hockey stick. Mann tries to beat down the concern over “hide the decline” while not letting the dissenting scientist know there was a decline.

UPDATE33: Gobsmacking! Rob Wilson proves McIntyre and McKittrick correct in an email to colleagues at CRU, showing that when random noise time series are fed into Mike Mann’s procedure, it makes “hockey sticks”. The confirmation that M&M is right never leaves the walls of CRU.

UPDATE32: 9:30PM PST  11/27 BREAKINGCanada to pull out of Kyoto protocol. Another Climategate fallout ?

UPDATE31: 4:30PM PST 11/27 BOMBSHELL An absolutely disgusting string of communications that shows the tribal attempt at getting an editor of a journal fired on made up issues – all because he allowed a publication that didn’t agree with “the Team”. This is ugly, disturbing, and wrong on every level.

UPDATE30: 9:45 AM PST 11/27 Newsbytes. Major crack in the warming wall at the UK prime minister’s office. BBC in collusion with Climategate scientists.

UPDATE29: 9AM PST 11/27 The saga of the missing station data at CRU and the “pants on fire” defense of it as told by Willis Eschenbach. Dr. Phil Jones is between a rock and a hard place, quite.

UPDATE 28: 1:30PM PST 11/26 An email shows the UNFCCC considers activists an essential tool saying “…organized and deeply committed environmental activism has long been an important part of the UNFCCC process…”

UPDATE27: 7AM PST 11/26 Climategate 2 features prominently in WUWT’s newest feature “Hits and Misses

UPDATE26: 2:50 PM 11/25 Two separate examples show obstruction and collusion by members of “The Team” to prevent any dissenting science from being properly considered by the NRC in 2007.

UPDATE25: 2PM 11/25 Keith Briffa asks another colleague to delete email to avoid FOIA

UPDATE24: 1:30PM 11/25 New Climategate 1/2 combined search engine here

UPDATE23: 9AM PST 11/25 via bishop-hill, strange infighting:

#4101 – Edward Cook tells Phil Jones that Mike Mann is “serious enemy” and “vindictive”. Mike Mann had criticized his work.

Apparently Mann went “a little crazy” over a paper showing the MWP exists.

Details here

UPDATE22: 11AM PST 11/24 Am unsurprising admission from a BBC environmental reporter to Dr. Phil Jones that they really have no impartiality at all (ho ho) when it comes to climate issues.

UPDATE21: 9:50AM PST 11/24 “FOIA2011″ and Climategate – A Chinese-POTUS connection?

UPDATE20: 9:30AM PST 11/24 World renowned climatologist Phil Jones can’t even plot a temperature trend line in Excel. I’ve offered a solution that WUWT readers can help with.

UPDATE19: 9AM PST 11/24 Gail Combs finds some disturbing connections between the Team and The World Bank

UPDATE18: 1:45PM Scott Mandia, aka “Supermandia” wins the award for the silliest climategate rebuttal, ever. It’s like stupid on steroids.

UPDATE17: 12:55PM PST 11/23 Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has an excellent piece on “Gatekeeping” related to Trenberth and the Pielke-Landsea hurricane paper and the IPCC. You may recall Landsea resigned from the IPCC over this. Pielke says: “The gatekeeping of the IPCC process is abundantly clear, and the shadowy suggestion that they can find out who the reviewers are from another colleague is a bit unsettling as well.” Trenberth looks particularly bad here.

UPDATE16: 11:30AM PST 11/23 Insider scientist at CRU says our “reaction to Mike Mann’s errors was not particularly honest” – story here

UPDATE15: 7:50AM 11/23 Ric Werme found an email from the late John L. Daly to Mike Mann and the team – it is well worth a read here

UPDATE14: 2:45 AM PST 11/23 Willis Eschenbach offers a guest post here explaining how his FOIA requests went astray. Mr. David Palmer was the Freedom of Information Officer for the CRU at the time. In the newly released emails, he expresses his frustration with the whole procedure.

UPDATE13: 12:05AM 11/23 Craig Stone writes:

I have published a searchable database of the emails at http://foia2011.org

All email addresses and phone numbers are automatically redacted. It’s extremely rudimentary right now, but I’ll be refining the functionality and improving the search capabilities and navigation over the course of the next week.

UPDATE 12: 9:30 PM PST We’ve known for some time that Al Gore made up a bunch of claims in his AIT movie that simply weren’t true. Now this revelation in the new email batch shows that in the case of Kilimanjaro’s disappearing snows, even Phil Jones and Dr. Lonnie Thompson don’t believe global warming is the cause, even though Thompson put out a press release nearly a year ago saying just that. Told ya so. Pants on fire and all that. Anything for “the cause” right?

UPDATE11: 4:45PM PST Kevin Trenberth gets all misty eyed and sing-songy at Christmas here

UPDATE10: 4:30PM PST Some thoughts on cracking the big remaining all.7z file here

UPDATE9: 2:25PM PST Josh weighs in with the first satirical cartoon here

UPDATE8: 140PM PST Mike Mann shows his true colors:

email 1680.txt

date: Wed, 29 Aug 2007 12:03:05 -0400

from: “Michael E. Mann”..

subject: Re: Something not to pass on

to: Phil Jones

Phil,

I would not respond to this. They will misrepresent and take out of context anything you give them. This is a set up. They will certainly publish this, and will ignore any evidence to the contrary that you provide. s They are going after Wei-Chyung because he’s U.S. and there is a higher threshold for establishing libel. Nonetheless, he should

consider filing a defamation lawsuit, perhaps you too.

I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his thusfar unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests.Perhaps the same needs to be done w/ this Keenan guy.

I believe that the only way to stop these people is by exposing them and discrediting them….

UPDATE7: 1:20 PM PST Phil Jones and Tom Wigley calls another scientist (The former state climatologist of California) a “jerk” for publishing his UHI results.

UPDATE6: 12:08PM PST Here’s an email that collaborates a radio interview I did in Seattle with Thomas Peterson in summer 2007, yes these are 100% real emails, no doubt whatsoever now. More here: Climategate 2.0 – NCDC: “Mr. Watts gave a well reasoned position”

UPDATE 5: 11:00AM PST In a statement, UEA doesn’t deny these emails, but posts about the whitewash investigations of the past, like they matter now.

UPDATE4: 9:45 AM PST I’ve changed the headline from Climategate 2.0 to Climategate 2.0  emails – They’re real and they’re spectacular!  with a hat tip to Jerry Seinfeld. The relevance of that headline is particularly interesting in the context of where Dr. James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has his office in NYC.

UPDATE3: 9:25 AM PST – Having read a number of emails, and seeing this quote from Mike Mann in the Guardian:

When asked if they were genuine, he said: “Well, they look like mine but I hardly see anything that appears damning at all, despite them having been taken out of context. I guess they had very little left to work with, having culled in the first round the emails that could most easily be taken out of context to try to make me look bad.”

I’m going to conclude they are the real deal. I’ve posted a BitTorrent link to the file below. One big difference between Climategate 1 and 2 is that in 1, it took days for the MSM to catch on, now they are on top of it.

UPDATE2: 8:45AM PST The Guardian has a story up by Leo Hickman, and this excerpt suggests they may be the real deal:

Norfolk police have said the new set of emails is “of interest” to their investigation to find the perpetrator of the initial email release who has not yet been identified.

The emails appear to be genuine, but this has yet to be confirmed by the University of East Anglia. One of the emailers, the climate scientist Prof Michael Mann, has confirmed that he believes they are his messages.

UPDATE1: 8:20 AM PST These emails have not been verified yet, and this story was posted by one of my moderating staff while I was asleep. Until such time they are verified, tread lightly because without knowing what is behind the rest of the zip file, for all we know it’s a bunch of recipes and collection of  lorem ipsum text files. I’m working to authenticate these now and will report when I know more – Anthony Watts

===============================================================

Early this morning, history repeated itself. FOIA.org has produced an enormous zip file of 5,000 additional emails similar to those released two years ago in November 2009 and coined Climategate. There are almost 1/4 million additional emails locked behind a password, which the organization does not plan on releasing at this time.

The original link was dropped off in the Hurricane Kenneth thread at about 4 AM Eastern. It is still there.

Some initial snippets floating around the blogosphere:

<3373> Bradley: I’m sure you agree–the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year

“reconstruction”.

<3115> Mann:  By the way, when is Tom C going to formally publish his roughly 1500 year

reconstruction??? It would help the cause to be able to refer to that

reconstruction as confirming Mann and Jones, etc.

<3940> Mann:  They will (see below) allow us to provide some discussion of the synthetic

example, referring to the J. Cimate paper (which should be finally accepted

upon submission of the revised final draft), so that should help the cause a

bit.

<0810> Mann: I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she think’s she’s

doing, but its not helping the cause

<2440> Jones: I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the

process

<2094> Briffa: UEA does not hold the very vast majority of mine [potentially FOIable emails] anyway which I copied onto private storage after the completion of the IPCC

task.

JeffId has some initial reaction

From the ReadMe file:

/// FOIA 2011 — Background and Context ///

“Over 2.5 billion people live on less than $2 a day.”

“Every day nearly 16.000 children die from hunger and related causes.”

“One dollar can save a life” — the opposite must also be true.

“Poverty is a death sentence.”

“Nations must invest $37 trillion in energy technologies by 2030 to stabilize

greenhouse gas emissions at sustainable levels.”

Today’s decisions should be based on all the information we can get, not on

hiding the decline.

This archive contains some 5.000 emails picked from keyword searches. A few

remarks and redactions are marked with triple brackets.

The rest, some 220.000, are encrypted for various reasons. We are not planning

to publicly release the passphrase.

We could not read every one, but tried to cover the most relevant topics such

as…

==============================================================

Here’s one about UHI that is convincing:

cc: liqx@cma.xxx

date: Tue, 25 Sep 2007 11:16:37 +0800

from: =?gb2312?B?JUQ1JUM1JUMwJUYyJUMzJUY0IA==?= <limmy@xxx>

subject: Re:Re: thank you

to: p.jones@xxx

Dear Phil,

Again I find that the emails from my CMA mail boxes can not get to you.

From attaches please find the data of 42 urban stations and 42 rural stations (by your

list) and a reference of homogenization of the data. we have tested and adjusted the abrupt

discontinuities of the data during 1951-2001, but the following years (2002-2004) has only

been quality controled and added to the end of the series, but we found the relocation

during these 3 years have minor effects on the whole series in most of the stations.

I  partly agree with what Prof. Ren said. and we have done some analysis on the urban heat

island effect in China during past years. The results are differnt with Ren’s. But I think

different methods, data, and selection of the urban and rural stations would be the most

important causes of this. So I think it is high time to give some new studies and graw some

conclusion in this topic.  I hope we can make some new achives on this both on global scale

and in China.

Best

Qingxiang

—– Original Message —–

From: “Phil Jones” < p.jones@xxxx >

To: “Rean Guoyoo” < guoyoo@xxxx >

Cc: “%D5%C5%C0%F2%C3%F4” < limmy@xxx>, < liqx@cma.xxx >

Sent: 2007-09-24 16:25:59 +0800

Subject: Re: thank you

Dear Guoyu,

I think I emailed you from America last week. I am away again next week,

but here this week.

I do think that understanding urban influences are important.  I will

wait for Dr Li Qingxiang to send some data, but there is no rush, as I am

quite busy the next few weeks.

Best Regards

Phil

At 00:59 20/09/2007, you wrote:

The following message was returned back when I sent via cma site. I send it again via

this site. I also forwarded this message to Dr, Li Qingxiang.

Regards,

Guoyu

Dear Phil,

Thank you for your message of Sept 11, 2007. I have just been back from the US. Sorry

for the delayed response.

I noted the discussion on blog sites. This is indeed a big issue in the studies of

climate change.

In the past years, we did some analyses of the urban warming effect on surface air

temperature trends in China, and we found the effect is pretty big in the areas we

analyzed. This is a little different from the result you obtained in 1990. I think there

might be at least three reasons for the difference: (1) the areas chosen in the analyses

are different; (2) the time periods analyzed are obviously varied, and the aft-1990

period is seeing a more rapid warming in most areas of China; (3) the rural stations

used for the analyses are different, and we used some stations which we think could be

more representative for the baseline change.

We have published a few of papers on this topic in Chinese. Unfortunately, when we sent

our comments to the IPCC AR4, they were mostly rejected.

It is my opinion that we need to re-assess the urbanization effect on surface air

temperature records for at least some regions of the continents. I am glad that you are

going to redo it using the updated dataset. I expect you to obtain the new outcome.

As for the dataset, I believe that Dr. Li Qingxiang could give you a hand. He and his

group conducted a lot work of detection and adjustment of the inhomogeneities in the

past years, and the adjusted and the raw datasets are all stored and managed in his

center. The datasets we used are also from his center.

I’d be happy to discuss some issues with you late, but I would not necessarily be as a

co-author because my contribution would be rather minor.

Best regards,

Guoyu

NCC, Beijing

Shape Yahoo! in your own image. [1]Join our Network Research Panel today!

Prof. Phil Jones

Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 xxxx

School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 xxxxx

University of East Anglia

Norwich                          Email    p.jones@xxxxx

NR4 7TJ

UK

—————————————————————————-

=======================263ÌìÏÂÓÊ£ÐÅÀµÓÊ×Ôרҵ=======================

Attachment Converted: “c:\eudora\attach\Detecting and Adjusting Temporal Inhomogeneity in

Chinese Mean Surface Air Temperature Data.pdf” Attachment Converted: “c:\eudora\attach\To

Jones.rar”

====================================================================

Here’s a bit torrent link to the FOIA2011.zip file

You’ll need a bit torrent client

BETTER LINK:

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ROCGBR37

Documentation Of A Cozy Interaction Between An AMS BAMS Editor And Phil Jones

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A physicist
November 23, 2011 8:40 am

A physicist says: Prof. Barry Bickmore’s much-viewed lecture (on YouTube) titled “How to Avoid the Truth About Climate Change” summarizes clearly the logical arguments that you and many other posters are WUWT are (rightly) seeking.

P.F. says: Prof. Bickmore’s “brand of thoughtful conservatism” is deeply flawed, corroded with logical fallacies and a thin understanding of the depth of the history of climate alarmism. He focused on elements that have serious questions of credulity and completely ignored evidence that cuts global warming alarmism down at its knees. He has done a disservice to understanding the truth.
I’d enjoy an opportunity to take him on, point for point, but I suspect he is of the sort that backs away when he realizes history and solid data demolishes his arguments.

It seems to me that Prof. Bickmore’s analysis is rational, respectful, and fact-driven … a model for conservative scientific analysis at its best. In particular, throughout his lecture Prof. Bickmore scrupulously refrains from cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting.
Watch Prof. Bickmore’s lecture, and judge for yourself whether this assessment is correct.
Here on WUWT, far too many posts/comments relating to climate change compare poorly with Prof. Bickmore solid conservatism. The time is long overdue for thoughtful conservatism to reject cherry-picking, witch-hunting, and slogan-shouting, because if these practices are the future of American conservatism, then American conservatism has no future.

henrythethird
November 23, 2011 8:40 am

From Phil:
“…Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get – and has to be well hidden. I’ve
discussed this with the main funder (US Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original station data…”
Seems to me that FOIA should be sent to the DoE – sure would love to see what bureaucrat signed off on that conversation.

TheGoodLocust
November 23, 2011 8:52 am

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=5703
“If we had got a larger sulphate cooling in our model, then to be consistent with the observations, the detection procedure would have to scale down the sulphate response ( in
which case the estimate of the GHG response is unchanged and there is an
implication that the non-ghg forcing or response is over-estimated) , or
scale up the greenhouse gas contribution, in which case the larger sulphate
forcing is balanced by a larger greenhouse gas warming as we imply in the
chapter. Either way, we still detect a substantial GHG contribution. ”
An argument from ignorance. No matter what the guesstimated effects of sulphates it will either have no effect on the model’s calculations for CO2’s forcing or they will increase the effect of CO2 in their models.

GW
November 23, 2011 9:01 am

If I were President of the US, I would request airtime for a Presidential Address, but I would not give the media a clue as to the nature/subject of the address.
I would then announce that in the wake of the Climategate 2.0 release which revealed the outright collusion of scientists and false, perhaps criminal behavior on their part, that the person(s) behind the release via “FOIA.org” would receive, in abscentia, the United States Presidential Medal of Freedom for services to the nation, and indeed the world, in the pursuit of truth.
I would then announce that the United States would immediately cease all funding to the UN IPCC, and freeze all existing grants/funding for AGW research to all institutions worldwide and cancel any pending awards.
I would then announce that I had directed the US Justice Department to add 1000 agents/investigators to fully investigate the conduct and research of all US scientists for potential criminal indictments.
Finally, I would announce that all funding within executive jurisdiction to or for green energy projects would be cancelled henceforth.
While the above is simply a feelgood wish for me, I sincerely hope that the republican presidential candidates will be made acutely aware of Climategate 2.0 and add these revelations into their campaign platforms and future debates.
God Bless FOIA.org
GW

APACHEWHOKNOWS
November 23, 2011 9:03 am

A (gazed/glazed) Physicist,
Judge ye not harshly lest ye be judged likewise.

TheGoodLocust
November 23, 2011 9:04 am

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=6840
“In doing this we are showing that even the most extreme mitigation does not remove the threat
of global warming. Furthermore, it also highlights the problem in delaying
the next round of mitigation negotiations. My question is do we want to
proceed with this amended figure?”
So the “threat of global warming” can’t be removed …..but do we really want to show that?

Denise
November 23, 2011 9:13 am

The real sad thing is how WUWT got sucked into the BEST project, despite numerous warnings. I’m certain all their data was also manipulated to show warming . For example, ask them (BEST) to supply you ALL the unadjusted raw data. Not a chance! Muller Is from the same crowd as the team and WUWT should have seen this from word go. The video he put up was a real sucker (Skeptic, my foot) and preparation for the temp data project planned by his daughter to follow…Sad…

Gail Combs
November 23, 2011 9:19 am

petermue says:
November 22, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Michael Mann
“I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an investigative journalist to investigate and expose McIntyre, and his thus far unexplored connections with fossil fuel interests.Perhaps the same needs to be done w/ this Keenan guy.
I believe that the only way to stop these people is by exposing them and discrediting them….”

Obviously this is how modern “real climate science” works….
/sarc
_____________________________________
That tidbit shows that it never was about science. With science you produce evidence that puts the other scientist’s work into question.
In Climate Scientology you attack and discredit the PERSON so your “Useful Innocents” will not look at the work showing you are full of B.S.
The fact that McIntyre and Keenan must be subjected to a smear campaign instead of rebutted with scientific evidence indicate there is no rebuttal possible.
“If the law is against you, argue the facts; if the facts are against you, argue the law; If both the facts and the law are against you, pound the table and yell like hell.”
Neither the facts or the laws are in the favor of the Climate Scientologists so when it comes to the FOIA’s we are seeing a lot of pounding on the table and yelling and squirming. Mann’s being provided with FREE lawyers tells you there is a lot of money hanging on the CAGW scam or he would have been hung out to dry by now. Whether Mann is tossed under the bus or not will tell us if the money men are determined to continue pushing the Carbon Trade Bubble down the throat of the world economy. I do not know if western economies can withstand another bubble, but that is part of the game, to collapse our civilization. “Would we not shatter it to bits, and then Remould it nearer to the heart’s desire!” This is written on the Fabian Society stained-glass window installed in the London School of Economics in a ceremony attended by Fabian Tony Blair in April of 2006. Bill Clinton has been one of their speakers and George Soros a graduate.
The great American Bubble Machine: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-20100405
How Goldman Sachs Created the 2008 Food Crisis: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/27/how_goldman_sachs_created_the_food_crisis?page=0,1
The Coming Carbon Bubble: http://www.iatp.org/blog/2009/07/the-coming-carbon-bubble

November 23, 2011 9:31 am

Denise says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/#comment-806126
Henry@Denise
In the case of the Gibraltar (UK) data I’m pretty much convinced they were altered by someone
(look at the differences in the results around Gibraltar: Tanger, Malaga and Granada)
I have said again and again here that you cannot just look at the average increase of temps.
You have to also look at the increase in maxima and minima
Note the correlation with the leaf area index, that I have picked up on…
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming

Blade
November 23, 2011 9:35 am

elmer [November 22, 2011 at 11:11 am] says: :: “What do you guys think? [Link]”

That’s great work. I love you folks at M4GW.

More Soylent Green! [November 22, 2011 at 11:28 am] says: :: [to A physicist November 22, 2011 at 10:38 am] “You’re obvious new to this trolling thing, aren’t you? … Consensus does not determine science, nor does appeal to authority. I find the progressive mind, like that of children, to be very susceptible to peer-pressure. That’s why progressives have such uniformity of opinion and so little original thought. Conformity is very important to progressives and they inhabit a shame sub-culture.”

Yep. It is positively Freudian. Parental issues are behind it. They long for a mommy and/or daddy, hence the overwhelming need for a nanny state. If things were left to the progressives, nothing in your life would be safe. They are about control. Forget abut ‘government in your bedroom’ as they sometimes complain about, with them it is the bedroom, bathroom, kitchen, EVERYWHERE! They are spoiled children, the types that were never scolded. Good job trying to discipline this child here, but alas it probably will do no good.

sandw15 [November 22, 2011 at 5:43 pm] says: :: “This offer is specially prepared for A Physicist (or occupant troll) You are just the kind of forward-looking person I’m looking for. What you need is an investment strategy for the future. This is your opportunity to be among the first to get a ground-floor stake in the investment opportunity of the century. I’m talking about Sandw15’s South Texas Sea Resort Communities.”

Excellent response to this AGW cultist. You would think that in our enlightened technological era, that the age of the scam or hoax might be over. Nope. In reality, the abundance of male enhancement pills and free energy and fuel additives and instant cures and Nigeria investments exist primarily because of the self-broadcasting of their own stupidity of these victims-in-waiting all over the world, with these AGW zombies leading the charge. There is one born every nanosecond.

Jimmy Haigh [November 22, 2011 at 11:49 pm] says: :: [to Danielle Westerbank November 22, 2011 at 10:56 pm] “Danielle. You remind me of the story of Louis Armstrong, when he was asked what jazz was, replied: “Lady? If you gotta ask, you just ain’t got it”.”

ROTFLMAO! That’s gonna leave a mark. But will she even realize it?

Michael [November 23, 2011 at 1:54 am] says: :: “This thread will definitely go over 1,000 comments.”

Not only that. I predict a new hockey stick in the near future. This one will again be found on Alexa graphs when WUWT is plotted alongside RealClimate. The blade will be WUWT, the handle will be RC, and Gavin will whine about someone Hiding the Incline.

David L [November 23, 2011 at 7:10 am] says: :: [to You Guys are unreal on November 22, 2011 at 3:39 pm] “Your last sentence is completely wrong. Look up the scientific process. It is NOT the burden to disprove the theory…. It is the burden to PROVE it. The theory is stated, data is supplied (and picked apart)…. If the theory can survive then it is advanced. And there’s no statute of limitations on this either. The law of gravitational attraction was proposed in the 17th century and effectively challenged by Einstein in the 20th century.”

Perfectly stated sir, absolutely perfect. That *is* Science pure and simple. The destruction caused to Science by the AGW cult is simply unimaginable. If that troll has any sense whatsoever he will listen up and learn something, because as it stands now, he knows nothing at all and in fact has it exactly ass-backwards.

A physicist [November 23, 2011 at 7:34 am] says: :: “Prof. Bickmore’s much-viewed lecture (on YouTube) titled “How to Avoid the Truth About Climate Change” summarizes clearly the logical arguments that you and many other posters are WUWT are (rightly) seeking. Prof. Bickmore’s lecture’s includes video clips of Newt Gingrich arguing too that AGW is real, serious, human-caused, and accelerating.”

That makes you both crackpots. I don’t need Newt Gingrich to tell me the planet has warmed since the LIA, *and* since the 1970’s, *and* since the Holocene began. You are the worst kind of cherry picker on the planet. You are lucky enough to live in an age where the confluence of not one, but all THREE of those warming events are occurring simultaneously. And you have the nerve to measure the small difference between the temps now and when it was naturally colder. Then you run around madly screaming: ‘We caused this by using fossil fuels to keep warm and for transportation! We must stop!’. You’re all sick. In reality you lot are the same as earlier eras that ran wild when a comet appeared in the sky, or more recently when pacific cultures tossed virgins into volcanoes. Of course neither of these earlier peoples had science or the Internet for a reference. So what is your excuse?

John from CA
November 23, 2011 9:36 am

Steve McIntyre has made “a time-conco­rdance of the new emails and placed it online”: http://www.climat­eaudit.org­/correspon­dence/clim­ategate2/i­nfo.cg2.cs­v
He feels, “The present dossier looks like a much more complete version” of the original email set.
source: http://cli­mateaudit.­org/2011/1­1/22/new-c­limategate­-emails/#c­omments

Michael Jennings
November 23, 2011 9:46 am

I have to agree with “a physicist” here. There is a lot of slogan-chanting, cherry- picking and witch-hunting going on but most of it comes from people like him/her at other sites. I am still waiting for his answer to Dave Wendt’s last question which, if they are truly a physicist, should not be too hard.

November 23, 2011 9:53 am

from: Michael Mann
subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
to: Kevin Trenberth
Michael Mann wrote:
extremely disappointing to see something like this appear on BBC. its particularly odd,
since climate is usually Richard Black’s beat at BBC (and he does a great job).
From what I can tell, this guy was formerly a weather person at the Met Office.
We may do something about this on RealClimate, but meanwhile it might be appropriate for the Met Office to have a say about this, I might ask Richard Black what’s up here?

A physicist
November 23, 2011 9:56 am

A physicist says: “Prof. Bickmore’s much-viewed lecture (on YouTube) titled “How to Avoid the Truth About Climate Change” summarizes clearly the logical arguments that you and many other posters are WUWT are (rightly) seeking. Prof. Bickmore’s lecture’s includes video clips of Newt Gingrich arguing too that AGW is real, serious, human-caused, and accelerating.”

Blade responds: “That makes you both crackpots. I don’t need Newt Gingrich to tell me the planet has warmed since the LIA, *and* since the 1970′s, *and* since the Holocene began. You are the worst kind of cherry picker on the planet. You are lucky enough to live in an age where the confluence of not one, but all THREE of those warming events are occurring simultaneously. And you have the nerve to measure the small difference between the temps now and when it was naturally colder. Then you run around madly screaming: ‘We caused this by using fossil fuels to keep warm and for transportation! We must stop!’. You’re all sick. In reality you lot are the same as earlier eras that ran wild when a comet appeared in the sky, or more recently when pacific cultures tossed virgins into volcanoes. Of course neither of these earlier peoples had science or the Internet for a reference. So what is your excuse?”

With respect, Blade, it seems to me — and to most CEOs, military strategists, mathematicians, scientists, and engineers — that Prof. Bickmore’s brand of thoughtful science-respecting conservatism is superior to the less rational brand of conservatism that your post represents.
It seems likely to me, Blade, that in the near future more-and-more climate-change skeptics like you will be changing their minds. There will always be some skeptics, even among business and military leaders, but it is true too that both their reputations and numbers are steadily diminishing.
Another well-conceived lecture, that reaches similar conclusions to Prof. Bickmore’s, is US Admiral David Titley’s YouTube video US Navy Chief Oceanographer: I Was Formerly a Climate Skeptic.
Recommended.

November 23, 2011 10:03 am

The New York Times refers to these as “stolen” e-mails in the headline.
Did the Times ever call Wikileaks, “stolen?”

P.F.
November 23, 2011 10:12 am

A physicist says: November 23, 2011 at 8:40 am “It seems to me that Prof. Bickmore’s analysis is rational, respectful, and fact-driven.”
Without going into a long treatise about Prof. Brickmore’s lecture’s short comings, I will point out just a few of the problems.
Brickman used Oreskes’s 2004 paper in Science to demonstrate the “consensus.” Oreskes was rebuked on several levels. For one, she neglected to cover any geophysical papers that presented data that made the AGW statements based on modeling incorrect on their face. In particular, the many papers regarding the MWP refuted on evidence MBH98’s model of 1,000 year global temps. None of them were mentioned as going against the consensus.These numerous peer-reviewed papers do not expressly try to refute the “consensus” by stating they go against the consensus and so, did not appear in her search for papers. But the works that show explicitly the sea level was higher and the atmosphere warmer during the MWP strongly refute the “consensus” that bought into MBH98 (the “Hockey Stick”).
Further, the six-scenario modeling used by the IPCC and Hansen in his testimony to Congress in 1988 had its roots in the mid 1980s. We’re now more than 30 years on — plenty of time to see if those models are proving at all correct. They are not. So poorly have the models performed that their results show no statistical relevance to what really transpired. For example, Hansen predicted that, under the “do nothing” premise, the global average temperature should rise more than 1.2°C over that period. The average global temperature rise from Hansen’s base line is only about 0.2°C and declining.
Brickman himself resorted to cherry-picking when he went after Monckton’s recent decadal comparison of observed temperatures with the IPCC projections. If he had considered the IPCC’s century-based sea level projections and compared them to the PGR-adjusted tide-gage studies (Gornitz & Lebedef for example), he would have noticed that there was no agreement at all between the two projections — the IPCC’s best case scenario showed a higher sea level rise than the highest estimate of sea level rise parsed from the observed data. When the subsequent directly observed sea level rise played out over the past couple of decades, reality did not conform with the IPCC projections. The requisite accelerating rise of over 4mm/yr necessary to achieve the IPCC “target” by the end of this century, ended up more like less than 2mm/yr and decelerating. In deed, the sea level fell 6mm in 2010 and is expected to fall even farther this year when all data is in.
Brinkman’s lecture is clever, rational, and somewhat respectful, but missed (avoided?) the heart of the entire matter — what has really happened with the global climate(s).

November 23, 2011 10:19 am

For those unfamiliar with all the players and issues, I suggest a review of my (shameless plug) “ClimateGate: 30 Years in the Making” graphic timeline (hosted on JoNova’s site), which covered the first batch of ClimateGate e-mails, to get some background and context. And for those familiar with the players and issues, you’ll find it helps understand what else was happening at the same time as a given e-mail to give it more context.
http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming/climategate-30-year-timeline/

A physicist
November 23, 2011 10:22 am

Dave Wendt asks: “What in your understanding is the residence time of a photon of infrared energy emitted from the earth which is absorbed by a molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere?”

Michael Jennings says: “I have to agree with “a physicist” here. There is a lot of slogan-chanting, cherry- picking and witch-hunting going on but most of it comes from people like him/her at other sites. I am still waiting for his answer to Dave Wendt’s last question.”

It’s pleasant to see such a thirst for knowledge here on WUWT. A certain humility is helpful, since as Chen, Laane, Wheeler, and Zhang accurately assert in their article (available free on-line) in the November Notices of the American Mathematical Society titled “Greenhouse Gas Molecules: A Mathematical Perspective”

“At a most fundamental level, the understanding of the greenhouse effect requires atomic and molecular physics and chemistry, as well as the associated mathematics: partial differential equations, group theory, and large-scale scientific computing. In fact, in order to fully understand the relevant properties of H2O, CO2, CH4, and others, one needs at least a whole year’s worth of graduate courses in physical chemistry. This will far exceed the scope of this article. Regardless of however small the amount of information we may be able to convey here is, we hope that we can arouse some interest in physical chemistry in the mathematics community.”

In a similar vein, a concrete place to start in grasping why Dave Wendt’s one-sentence question leads planetary climatologists to write book-length answers is the American Institute of Physics (AIP) web site “The Discovery of Global Warming” in particular Spencer Weart’s (lengthy) survey page titled “Basic Radiation Calculations” (a Google search will find it).
Spencer Weart’s survey is highly recommended … if you’re extraordinarily keen on math, physics, and the history of science! 🙂

Theo Goodwin
November 23, 2011 10:25 am

A physicist says:
November 23, 2011 at 9:56 am
Son, we are happy to debate you. If you have an argument to make, make it in your own words. Do not refer us elsewhere and expect a reply.

APACHEWHOKNOWS
November 23, 2011 10:28 am

This troll is making this thread too long, too boring.
later when its gone,,,

David Falkner
November 23, 2011 10:29 am

Interesting. Edited for readability:
We are now using the average of 4 AR4 scenarios you gave us for GHG + aerosol. What is the situation likely to be for AR5 forcing, particularly anthropogenic aerosols. Are there any new estimates yet? Pareticularly, will there be a revision in time for the 2010 forecast? We do in the meantime have an explanation for the interannual variability of the last decade.
However this fits well only when an underlying net GHG+aerosol warming of 0.15C per decade is fitted in the statistical models. In a sense the methods we use would automatically fit to a reduced net warming rate so Mike McCracken can be told that. In other words the method creates it own transient climate sensitivity for recent warming. But the forcing rate underlying the method nevertheless perhaps sits a bit uncomfortably with the absolute forcing figures we are using from AR4.
However having said this, interestingly, the statistics and DePreSys are in remarkable harmony about the temperature of 2009.

http://foia2011.org/index.php?id=5794

November 23, 2011 10:30 am

“At a most fundamental level, the understanding of the greenhouse effect requires atomic and molecular physics and chemistry, as well as the associated mathematics: partial differential equations, group theory, and large-scale scientific computing. In fact, in order to fully understand the relevant properties of H2O, CO2, CH4, and others, one needs at least a whole year’s worth of graduate courses in physical chemistry. This will far exceed the scope of this article. Regardless of however small the amount of information we may be able to convey here is, we hope that we can arouse some interest in physical chemistry in the mathematics community.”
Yeah, right. As in “certain molecules slow down the transfer of energy to space a bit more than others”.
Talk about obfuscation.

November 23, 2011 10:33 am

As expected, the only MSM coverage of this on the front page UEA’s outrage and denial.
http://news.yahoo.com/university-slams-apparent-climate-email-leak-172056597.html

Gail Combs
November 23, 2011 10:36 am

Jeffrey Davis says:
November 22, 2011 at 6:21 pm
Gail Collins sez, “Beliefs” and “Causes” belong to religion and politics they have absolutely no place in science because it leads to “Confirmation Bias”
Well, no.
Scientists are scientists only when they do science. The rest of the time, they have ordinary lives to lead…….
__________________________
I know about “Confirmation Bias” because I have caught “Scientists” in the act and had the owners of the firm fire their rumps. I have also been fired because I would not falsify lab data at the directive of other firms. I have had several knock down drag out fights because of the issue of “Confirmation Bias” during my forty year career as a chemist. From my experience “Confirmation Bias” is probably one of the biggest problems in science and the scientists not effected by it are a lot few than those who are.
Why the heck do you think new information must be replicated at three independent labs is a rule of thumb?
For example if I come up with a new drug it will be handed to a second scientist within the company to be validated BEFORE the company will spend the money for sending it to an outside testing firm.
The Fleischmann–Pons cold fusion controversy was all about independent lab validation. This is how science is SUPPOSED to be done!

Leon Brozyna
November 23, 2011 10:45 am

We’ve heard so much from everyone about this latest offering of e-mails, but have yet to hear from the Union of Concerned Scientists’ spokesdog, Mr. Kenji Watts. I wonder what his take on all this might be.

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