We know that we are currently in a La Niña pattern by the various maps and graphs we have on the WUWT ENSO page, for example this one:
But have a look at the ensemble forecast, updated yesterday. The average line which has now dipped “off the scale” of the graphic from February-March of 2012:
h/t to reader Erik Anderson
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At least we have a weather prediction tool that doesn’t depend upon a computer model [the actual ocean temperature] !! I wonder if they will “make confidential” the ocean temperature data based on the concept of national security. Oh, we could get the data by a FOIA request…………….
As per the latest: Does the Sun affect the Climate or Weather or neither or both???
Clearly, all this means is that more of the missing heat will slip secretly into the deep ocean basins where no one can register it…laying in wait for a sudden and cataclysmic return to the surface where it will prove all of the models correct and then everyone dies from heat stroke.
Ed, too funny. I am 4’11” and weight 120 lbs only when my long thick red and gray hair is soaking wet. If there ever was an image of an Irish female leprechaun, I’d be it. Put a pint of warm beer in my hand and I’ll grant wishes.
I believe the model hiccuped. Looking at the sub surface equatorial pacific temperatures I can’t can’t see a La Nina coming that is so extreme. The second, updated, link that Erik Anderson provided above is more likely. But it’s nice of NOAA to provide us with some light entertainment from time to time.
This is not a good forecast for Texas.
phlogiston says:
October 17, 2011 at 8:58 pm
“Is there an effect on equatorial trade winds of the change you describe to the jets, toward meridional and equatorward direction in response to weakened solar output?”
I would expect that there should be but have never found data that covers the issue. Has anyone got some relevant data ?
My expectation would be that as the surface air pressure distribution changes then so does the location and strength of the Trades.
If that isn’t interesting enough, check out this pic from a post on Twitter from Joe Bastardi regarding the drop off of the AMO next summer:
http://i56.tinypic.com/nlx8ch.jpg
Thanks Joe and Richard.
I have it on the best authority 🙁
Next year? Nothing to write home about with regard to 2005 through 2011 and 2014 onwards.
2013? Scorchio, run for the hills we’re all gonna fryeeeeeee.
2014+ “Your children will grow up in a cold world”.
Ed Mertin says:
October 17, 2011 at 10:29 pm
Hey Ed, I ain’t no big girl and I ain’t no little girl. In fact, I’m no girl at all.
You know what happens when you ASSUME Ed?
Dunno about Pamela, she might be a she 🙂
Jack said:
Which means ….? Help me out here.
=======================================
… for the western Pacific rim of the Southern Hemisphere, a wet summer, perhaps. Last summer, eastern Australia had floods. Perhaps NZ will this year …
The “rain bombs” (small low pressure systems) are already forming regularly off the southern Queensland coast and tripping east across the Tasman Sea to NZ …
But that’s weather, not climate so we’ll have to wait and see …
SteveSadlov says:
October 17, 2011 at 12:34 pm
I would suggest you make yourself some of these anayses:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/WvPrecipSC.GIF
Following David Archibald’s idea of sorting precipitation records by solar cycle length in years.
Having had 2 semi-dry precip. years (2008-9, 2009-10) follwed by one semi-wet precip year (2010-11) in California, the average of above normal precip for NW Calif. during a long solar cycle (SC24) means another wet year…. if the average is to be satisfied this year.
suddenly, the graph is no longer going off scale, even thou the last update date remains the same.
WUWT ?
I have also noted Eriks request for a link change above, yet the current 7:44 PM tuesday, pacific time link shows a mean much deeper, yet not off scale and NO ‘updated’ title at the page top.
somebody should challenge NOAA on this hanky panky
Happy to say, I am a “she”. Wouldn’t be a male for all the tea in China. That said, the male species just endlessly fascinates me. To back that up, my boyfriend most encouragingly says I am a “she”. Love that man. He also says I am exceedingly short. Typical. He’s 6 ft tall and has memorized every short joke ever penned.
And now back to your regularly programmed program. Enough about being short and female.
Funny, I always assumed that Bah Humbug was male.
see this link:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTSea.gif
and :
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.shtml
why do they leave the uncorrected plots up for linking, and then put a 2nd link up ?
very confusing – i won’t use the other word.
Steptoe Fan says:
October 18, 2011 at 7:38 pm
suddenly, the graph is no longer going off scale, even thou the last update date remains the same.
WUWT ?
“Oops.”
As Joe Bastardi already said earlier, the NCEP forecast is a joke. Even the new CFS v2 forecast is forecasting a super La Niña that isn’t going to happen. Instead, as Joe said, we’ll likely see a strong cooling of the oceans globally while the La Niña remains in moderate territory. Also, remember that a La Niña does not mean a cold winter across the eastern U.S. or even across western Europe. Most La Niñas help develop a positive AO and NAO and a negative Pacific-North American Pattern. This puts the trough in the western U.S. with a ridge over the Southeast. Warm air is pumped northeastward from Mexico and the Gulf into the eastern U.S. This brings heavy rains/storms into the Ohio Valley while leaving the SE Atlantic coast and Gulf Coast dry as a bone. Look at La Niña winters like the ’73-’76 super Niña years or ’88-89 or ’98/99 and 99/00′ which were two of the warmest winters on record in the U.S. In fact, a repeat of 1999/2000, which has shown up in the analogs, would mean a blowtorch winter for the entire U.S. outside of the extreme west coast. It would also be dry with little snow for anybody as well. I don’t think that will happen though. 1999/2000 saw very anomalous stratospheric wind patterns that kept any cold air from reaching the mid-latitudes. Expect this La Niña to bring a month or so of nice, cold, wintry weather for the east and south… but then expect the majority of winter to be mild on the east coast. Spring is another story though…
I don’t think we can rely on past weather patterns to predict the upcoming weather events. Even Joe has been caught out on this one along with many others of high standing. The low solar EUV and changing jet streams are throwing another important factor into the mix that we have not seen before.
Geoff Sharp says:
October 19, 2011 at 8:49 pm
I don’t think we can rely on past weather patterns to predict the upcoming weather events. Even Joe has been caught out on this one along with many others of high standing. The low solar EUV and changing jet streams are throwing another important factor into the mix that we have not seen before.
_________________________________________
I agree.
I have notice the wind and weather no longer come out of the west south west as was typical in the last fifteen years. Now I see weather move in from the west, north and south as like as not thanks to the “Loopy” jet stream.
Makes figuring out what the local weather is going to do a real royal pain in the neck.
I maybe the only person posting from the southwest. All you folks just complaining about cold. How about servere cold snaps(-30deg all the way down into Mexico last Feb) along with drought compounded upon dorught compounded upon drought! I hope this model is flawed! If its solid, it means NM and TX will basically become inhabitable in a about a year, two years tops! The rest of the south east of Texas probably will fall into drought as well! The southern farm and ranch land will dry up, while northern farmland floods-this spells disaster for American food independance! Uhm,yeh, my guess food costs will outpace inflation 6 to 1!!!