NCEP ensemble forecast shows deep La Niña coming

We know that we are currently in a La Niña pattern by the various maps and graphs we have on the WUWT ENSO page, for example this one:

clickable global map of SST anomalies

But have a look at the ensemble forecast, updated yesterday. The average line which has now dipped “off the scale” of the graphic from February-March of 2012:

h/t to reader Erik Anderson


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Which means ….? Help me out here.


Which means its going to be interesting…


It means we’re doomed!! Doomed, I tell you!!

Douglas DC

As Chinese proverb interesting.. With luck we don’t go deep until spring-or what passes for it..


How does the ensemble mean compare to last years La Nina?


Jack– that deep a La Nina? Northern and Central US and NW Europe will be very cold


It means nothing – as we have all been taught, el Nino is climate, but La Nina is just weather.
From today’s China Daily under my hotel room door this morning:
Visitors pose for photos on Sunday at the Hongxing Volcano Geology Park in Yichun city, Northeast China’s Heilongjiang province. Snow fell in most parts of the province over the weekend.


It means hell will be freezing over soon.


Which means it going to get cold but ,NOAA and Accuweather, are forcasting above normal in southeast.They seem to forecast the same every year.Then in January they have to adjust .


This is not one of the two CFS graphs (V.1 or V.2) that is reported in the latest (10/17) weekly ENSO discussion update.
Anyone know what this version represents, and why it’s not used in the report ? Perhaps this is considered an outlier at this time ?


If recollection serves me right this means that I better be ready for yet another wet and cold winter. The wet part is ok (up to about 200% of the normal rainfall that is, with a one day rain event no greater then 4″) as I obtain my water from a well. My house was built out of the flood plane and my culverts do fine most of the time.
The cold part on the other hand is getting old and expensive- as far as fuel costs to transform my living spaces into something habitable.

Harry Bergeron

It means Global Freezening!
At long last, the top scientists’ predictions of 1975 are coming true.

G. Karst

Cooling will cost lives and much treasure. It ALWAYS does! GK

Habitualmente esto provoca intensas sequías en Sud América. Especialmente en Argentina y Brasil. Compren soja… Va a aumentar de precio.!!


It’s going to send global average temperatures, and particularly tropical temperatures, through the floor. We’ll be needing an explanation of how climate models don’t necessarily predict that climate change causes warming.
It would be a good opportunity for Dessler, Spencer, and other interested parties to make some predictions about top of atmosphere radiation.

Richard deSousa

We live in interesting climate times. Bundle up, it’s going to be colder than a witch’s kiss.


Wonderful…another harsh cold winter only to be followed by yet another lousy cool summer…sigh.
Robertol, what’s that in English, svp?


Very, very cold subsurface anomalies appearing in eastern ENSO regions. An east-central based Nina looking likely again. In terms of Winter, if the greenland block returns and gets established…look out!

I hope their wrong….. last winter was bad enough!

Alan Radford

Mark what is a ‘flood plane’? Is a type of hovercraft you have there?


It means that the pro-global warming extremists will be provided with another reason why global temperatures are still not rising.

Robert M

Hi Jack,
If you click here:
That will take you to Anthony’s ENSO/SST Page. You can also just click on it near the bottom of the right column.
Near the end of the page there are two graphics that generally explain the effects of ENSO…

Chris D.
Mike Bromley the Kurd

It means that driving over three Continental Divide crossings on Interstate 15 somewhere around November 9 may be a dicey prospect. It was sub-dicey last yer, southbound, and downright bizarre a week later, northbound. Hauling a trailer….meh.


Cold PDO with associated more frequent and stronger la ninas… high latitude volcanos going off left and right (katia looks ready to blow and that’s a very big deal climatically speaking)… continued low solar recent uptick notwithstanding….looks like the brutal winters continue into foreseeable future…
They’d better find that missing heat in a hurry :>0


“Very, very cold subsurface anomalies appearing in eastern ENSO regions. An east-central based Nina looking likely again. In terms of Winter, if the greenland block returns and gets established…look out!”
Agreed. And yet if I’m understanding Joe B. correctly, a strong la nina will paradoxically also help a warmup in the northeast come feb/march…But I’m hazy on that. I could have it wrong.


@ldd: Translation courtesy of google translation
This usually causes severe droughts in South America. Especially in Argentina and Brazil. Buy Soybean … It will increase the price.!

John from CA

Cudos to Joe Bastardi who predicted this earlier this year.
I really hope Katla quiets down.


Bill says:
October 17, 2011 at 9:33 am
It means we’re doomed!! Doomed, I tell you!!

For those that don’t know

Leon Brozyna

Well, if that means a replay of last winter then I’m all for it. We only had average snowfall here in Buffalo built up 2-4″ at a time … easy to shovel. All the nasty stuff headed to such out of the way places as Washington, D.C., New York City, Philadelphia, etc. A foot or two of the stuff will make all the little children happy … got to remember the children.


“They’d better find that missing heat in a hurry.”
They stopped looking for the missing heat a while ago, shortly after the ‘travesty’ comment was made.
What they are looking for now are excuses. A couple of those balloons have been floated already. Rest assured that ‘global warming’ will be found hiding behind every snowdrift, and it will be “worse than we thought”.

Old Goat

Great stuff! We just need one or two of those recently-threatening larger volcanoes to play ball at the appointed time, and we’re stuffed. Never mind, governments are busily preparing for a warmer world. It’ll be all right. Won’t it? They know what they’re doing, don’t they? They do, don’t they? Don’t they???


I’m guessing this means another year or two of extreme drought in Texas?


It means the climatology maps for South Central USA will need to be redrawn to reflect a near desert environment. Old trees are starting to die around here in NW and West Central Louisiana and East and Southeast texas. I’m talking about oak, pine, and hickory. This is due to two years of extreme drought with not enough rain to do more than moisten a few inches of topsoil at a time. Post holes dug down 4 to 5 feet deep for cornerposts show hard and dry clay. Hay for livestock is selling for over $100/bale for round bales shipped into the affected areas. The last significant precipitation events we received were a winter snow of 5 to 8 inches, then a storm event at the end of April accompanied by a flurry of tornadoes and hail. The avg precip from that was less than 1″. When checking the NWS office, I have no idea where they get their precip totals, they must be adding in an occasional morning dew.
This is what the little girl gives us…


Given that La Nina’s typically recharge the Ocean Heat Content in the Pacific, would we expect an exceptionally strong La Nina to add more heat than normal? Would we then expect a strong than normal El Nino within a few years as a result?


After listening to Joe Bastardi, It’ll be the next elnino that will be difficult for North America. If an elnino comes on just before winter warm moist air from the pacific will be drawn toward the cold continental air mass.
Warm moist air rising over cold winter air. Should be interesting.

Mike M

Time to fix the snow blower ….


Not to worry.
Send me a trillion dollars and I will fix it.

Gras Albert

March 27, 2011, James Hansen & Makiko Sato
The NOAA web pages giving weekly ENSO updates predict a return to ENSO–neutral conditions by mid–summer with some models suggesting a modest El Nino to follow. We have been checking these forecasts weekly for the past several years, and have noted that the models almost invariably are biased toward weak changes. Based on subsurface ocean temperatures, the way these have progressed the past several months, and comparisons with development of prior El Niños, we believe that the system is moving toward a strong El Niño starting this summer. It’s not a sure bet, but it is probable.
Thanks guys, please can we have our money back


Re-post from JC:
There’s an interesting ENSO development for this NH winter/spring…
Double La Nina is coming and some predictions are lower than -2.0 or even -2.5 in spring 2012.
So, temperature anomaly will fall.
to lower than -0.1 in 2012? Likely.

It means in Texas there will be no drought relief. Quite depressing… To say the least…
Thanks for the graph, I think.

To all “non AGW” (i.e. deniers) people here: never forget that if the global average temperature rises because of El Nino then it’s global warming, if instead the global average temperature falls because of La Nina then it’s climate disruption. Either it’s hot or cold, it doesn’t matter, you’re screwed!


I’m guessing this means another year or two of extreme drought in Texas?

And in the Southeastern US so buy up a supply of peanut butter because it is going to get scarce. Probably a warmup in New England but maybe a huge blizzard or two in Western NY. Lots of snow and cold in the Northern plains. The Pacific Northwest will depend on exactly where the jet stream settles. I have been watching an interesting “cut-off low” off the West coast for several days now. You can see it clearly on the GOES water vapor map:

At the moment, it is unusually colder here (in South Africa) at nights, for this time of the year.
I think I got the same impression from a friend in Australia about the colder weather there.


It means the BIG, BROWN area(s)
are going to stay BIG and BROWN


Suffering in Texas. I just hope we get enough precip to keep the LCRA lakes from going bone dry. This is bad bad.

Don Easterbrook

If that’s not bad enough, click on the NOAA satellite SST imagery above the la Nina curves. The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) flipped from warm to cool in 1999 and has stayed there ever since (hence a decade of gradual cooling). The cool water off the coast of N. America is now larger and cooler so look for another bitter winter, maybe worse than last year and continuing cooling after that. This is just weather, but over the past decade, the temps have followed the long-term cooling pattern very well (as predicted in 1998). Guess we should be careful what we wish for!

Theo Goodwin

geoprof says:
October 17, 2011 at 10:30 am
“It means in Texas there will be no drought relief. Quite depressing… To say the least…
Thanks for the graph, I think.”
Are agricultural workers leaving the drought stricken part of Texas?


well fudge……..
There goes my winter tomatoes…..
I can never grow tomatoes in a La Nina year….only in El Nino years


TERRY46 says:
October 17, 2011 at 9:39 am
Which means it going to get cold but ,NOAA and Accuweather, are forcasting above normal in southeast.They seem to forecast the same every year.Then in January they have to adjust .

The Farmer’s Almanac says cold and snowy for the southeast US. Joe Bastardi said, when he was working at Accuweather, that in a multi-year La Nina event, the second winter is always colder than the first winter. But in an earlier video, he said the cold the southeast US experienced was the first time such a pattern ever occurred on record. Living in the southeast US I have noticed that there are more acorns this year than last year. Winter isn’t long now, we shall see what happens.