We know that we are currently in a La Niña pattern by the various maps and graphs we have on the WUWT ENSO page, for example this one:
But have a look at the ensemble forecast, updated yesterday. The average line which has now dipped “off the scale” of the graphic from February-March of 2012:
h/t to reader Erik Anderson
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Also means, with the Pacific cooling for now, we could see a further [slight] drop in sea level. I’d like to see how that squares with Mann, et al, and their sea level hockey stick graph.
That’d be fun.
I live in the desert southwest where we are dependent on the watersheds of the Colorado and other rivers for our water. The very wet years of the last two winters have lead to enormous snowpacks and raised the numerous reservoirs to about normal levels after a long period of drought. All the Upper Colorado dams are full and the swing Upper Colorado reservoir Lake Powell is comfortably full and at 75%.
I remember the local CAGW nutcase saying that reservoir would become nothing but a river a few years ago, with no water in it, a victim of Global Warming. Of course a warmer World would have more evaporation, and then consequent precipitation, but the eco-nitwits are incapable of rational thought.
We still have space for water in Lake Powell and Lake Mead the swing reservoir of the Lower Colorado is now over 50% full too, but it could still use another year of great melts to fill, and it appears we will get it. Meanwhile all the other Lower Colorado reservoirs are full and the snowfields in the Rockies are already at 200% of normal depth.
Walter Dnes says:
October 17, 2011 at 2:53 pm
*EVERYBODY PLEASE CALM DOWN BEFORE WE ALL MAKE FOOLS OF OURSELVES IN PUBLIC*…
Hi Walter, Sorry, no one panicking here. We know that the “forecasts” are mostly bunk, and only tend to follow the current trend before rolling the dice and predicting the bottom. (Or the top.) I think the only real new thing that we are seeing is agreement between the models. Usually they spread out and all options are open after about six months or so… I always thought this was so that the “experts” could claim that their forecasts were robust, as it was predicted. (Not mentioning that EVERYTHING was predicted.) I have been watching the model runs for years and I cannot recall them ever “agreeing” to this degree. Interesting…
keith, I agree re reason for UAH spike. Rosco, thank you! For non-Aussies, we learnt Said Hanrahan by heart in school once- should be compulsory again!!
Ken
The graph signifies a colder than normal winter ahead which gets colder as the winter progresses with the temperatures being the coldest in February and March of 2012. Europe may again be cold as well but with a December not as cold as 2010. UK/ CET mean winter temperaure is likely to be around 3.2 C which is similar to 2011.
Thanks Anthony for running this story and for the h/t 😀 I’ve read through all the comments as of 4:49pm. In view of Walter Dnes’ remarks (2:53 pm), it would be wise to replace…
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif
…with…
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/PDFcr_nino34SSTMon.gif
…on the WUWT ENSO reference page. I’m certainly going to update my own bookmark!
Also, Joe Bastardi wrote @ur momisugly 11:48 am: “You will find that the frontier research and euro models destroy it routinely.” Does ANYONE know if these forecasts are posted online? I’d be pleased to check them out and follow them.
Cheers,
– Erik
But–but–but— what about CO2? Where’s R Gates in this thread when you need him???
.Anthony Scalzi says:
October 17, 2011 at 2:24 pm….
“….Living in the northeast US, I’ve noticed the maple trees behaving very oddly this year. Normally the maple seeds ripen and drop before the trees leaf out. This year however, the seeds stayed on the trees all summer and only in the past week or so have they started falling.”
I’ve noticed the same thing in southern New Hampshire. Usually this is the peak of Sugar Maple glory, but the leaves are mostly gone, with the seeds remaining. My guess is that, although Irene did not take many big trees down, two periods of thirty-mile-an-hour winds on either side of the weakened center, (which was a let-down,) did tatter the leaves, and left them bruised and wide open for various fungus infections. They seemed to just brown and dry out and fall off the more exposed trees. Down in the low-lands the swamp maples were more protected, and glorious as usual, around a two weeks ago. Despite the mild fall they seemed to change at the usual date, which tends to suggest to me that those trees shut down due to reduced daylight, rather than temperature.
By the way, swamp maples shed their winged seeds in mid summer. Sugar maples shed theirs around now, but usually you don’t notice because the leaves are still on. I agree it does look bizarre to see a maple with no leaves, and all those seeds.
We can call it, “The Autumn of the Seedy Maples.” It has a certain ring to it.
Ask old-timers in your area if they’ve ever seen it before. Even if it isn’t a sign of what sort of winter will follow, you may get a good story.
One old-timer told me of a circa-1940 late summer hurricane which blew all the leaves off a lilac hedge. Because the weather was still warm, the lilacs grew new leaves, complete
with the next spring’s flowers! He said it was strange to see lilacs blooming in September.
We’re back to the climate patterns of the 70s and we know winter in America was cold in the 70s because Doug Ashtown told us in one of the best songs of all time.
The models shown on this NOAA page all predict neutral to mild La Nina – nothing at all like the extreme forecast shown above.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure6.gif
RE: “Ex-Wx Forecaster says:
October 17, 2011 at 3:53 pm
Also means, with the Pacific cooling for now, we could see a further [slight] drop in sea level. I’d like to see how that squares with Mann, et al, and their sea level hockey stick graph.
That’d be fun.”
I’ve been thinking the same thing. However I’m also curious about how much water in in the icecap atop Katla, in Iceland. If that volcano blows all that ice will melt very quickly. I wonder if it is enough to make a blip in sea-levels.
If Katla swiftly dumps a vast amount of fresh water into the Atlantic, I expect the gulf stream will be split. One half will head back to New Hampshire, and I’ll be able to plant peaches and palms. The other half will head to Morroco and the Sahara will become a verdent pasture. Meanwhile European scientists will give up on windmills, and will focus on genetic reserch and on bringing back herds of Wooly Mammoths…. /sarc
Joe Bastardi says:
October 17, 2011 at 11:48 am
The cooling atlantic is not the end of the overall warm amo, but is in line with what started happening in the 1950s, as is the PDO.
60 years has been the length of the first cycles measured by thermometers. No reason to think this one will be any different. Unless of course you are Hansen/Gore/Mann, seeking millions in return for predictions of linear/exponential climate doom. Everything else in nature moves in cycles, so why expect climate to be any different? We’ve just had 30 years of hot, now we are going to get 30 of cold.
Fascinating. A double dip, but not sure what it means in terms of weather. Last year at this time the La Nina was being blamed for effectively zero rain in Western Australia, but this year we have had pretty much average rain so things are not exactly the same. I wouldn’t bet that anything will be the same as last year so really just wait, see and be prepared.
@Stephen Fisher Wilde
A nice concise formulation of your NCM, thanks!
If we are lucky, the warm pool just off the coast of Washington and Oregon will add moisture to cold air and bring mountain snow. If that same warm pool (left over El Nino’s) eventually cools and we get hit with another moderate La Nina next winter, we will have bitter cold and dry winters here. Rivers will freeze from the bottom up. Wheat will suffer. And a dust bowl will come round again as this cold dry air makes its way over the Rockies and across the corn belt.
Stephen Wilde
Is there an effect on equatorial trade winds of the change you describe to the jets, toward meridional and equatorward direction in response to weakened solar output?
An effect on trade winds might help explain an effect of solar phase on which way the ENSO leans.
The AAO is also predicted to go further positive which will force on the deepening of La Nina. Current solar EUV values are still low, so the predicted massive winter for the northern hemisphere is taking shape.
http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/?q=node/224
double posting;Watch what happens when we have a Synod conjunction with Jupiter on 10-29-2011 when the moon is maximum south declination. There should be a larger than usual meridional surge of warm moisture coming off of the equator into the mid-latitudes having some intense interaction with the Mobil Polar Highs that will be forming the other half of the lunar tidal bulges in both hemispheres.
These patterns are what got me interested in wanting to understand WTF was going on, back in 1983.
My parents’ oak trees (Missouri) produced a bumper crop of acorns this year, which we interpreted as a sign that this winter’s going to be a doozy. Brace for it, Midwest USA!
Wow, Baa Humbug and Pamela are impressive big girls I’ll say that! Just what I was thinkolatoring lately. Bravo!
I may have to give up being a mountain man & swimming season looks done early for even a tough ol’ mm.
Jack says:
October 17, 2011 at 9:24 am
“Which means ….? Help me out here.”
Easy, it means my son, in San Fran, has just bought snow chains, this will help him get up to Tahoe for the snow boarding without needing a tow out like last year!
Pokerguy says: October 17, 2011
“… high latitude volcanos going, Katia looks ready to blow and that’s a very big deal…”
Maybe. Grimsvotn went larger than Eyja. and had a huge SO2 pulse a week after the eruption, Katla is currently “full” as is Hekla… which only gives 60 minutes of warning on the seismos. Then you have Hengill, atop a triple junction, that some company thinks its a good idea to hyrdrofrack with a mix of CO2 and H2S. This thing has been sporadically swarming even after the pumps are shut down in the wee hours on the weekend… all by itself.
Add to that the ever popping volcanoes on the Kamchatka peninsula, Japan’s active eruptions, and the El Hierro in the Canaries… the eruption that can’t make up its mind. (Its started enough to cause them to evacuate La Restinga)
So, yeah… lots of stuff going on.
It’s the Gore Effect.
Last week, the Nino 3.4 index was -0.77C.
Usually, a large La Nina or El Nino would be more extreme at this point of the year, mid-October. There is a definitive seasonal cycle to the ENSO where it builds in the summer/fall and peaks from November to February with December being the most common peak for events.
The 2010 La Nina had already gotten to -1.8C at times last October.
Global SSTs, however, have fallen quite a bit over the last year – down to 0.07C last week. Going back 30 years, Global Ocean SSTs have not really changed very much. The AMO looks like it is falling now as well after rising throughout 2011 to date – it seems to lag behind the ENSO by about 8 months.
http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/9332/weeklyensoamoglsstsoct1.png
And when all this results in bigger storms or longer droughts, you can guarantee the usual suspects will be there to blame it on global warming.