We know that we are currently in a La Niña pattern by the various maps and graphs we have on the WUWT ENSO page, for example this one:
But have a look at the ensemble forecast, updated yesterday. The average line which has now dipped “off the scale” of the graphic from February-March of 2012:
h/t to reader Erik Anderson
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Is there any ol’ way to compare this to the early to middle 1930s? I mean everything seems a lot the same from what I’ve read. No Ben Bernanke though.
The consensus computer forecast for the intensity of this La Niña is impressive.
Meanwhile, back in the OK (uk.gov) Corral, our illustrious coalition Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Chris Huhne, calms the nation by simply telling us all to shop around and switch suppliers, on national TV. Simultaneously his ‘pardners’, PM Cameron, and Chancellor Osborne, tell us to calm down —- “The Eurozone is safe in Angela Merkel’s and Nicholas Sarkozi’s hands”. God help us all.
TERRY46 says:
October 17, 2011 at 9:39 am
Which means it going to get cold but ,NOAA and Accuweather, are forcasting above normal in southeast.They seem to forecast the same every year.Then in January they have to adjust .
A stopped clock is right twice a day!
It’s worse than we thought!!!
Ecotretas
JDN says:
October 17, 2011 at 10:11 am
Ah, thanks. Forgot about using the online translater.
To distracted by the bad news.
Wow, last year here in NE Alabama we had the most snow since 93. I’m thinking better get the extra cord or two of wood handy for the cold days. Not looking good for the spring planting season either maybe a repeat of this year only cooler. Looks like with eyeball that it could be 1.5 below last year. not a good sign.
How accurate have past NCEP model forcasts proven to be?
It’s clear evidence that we need to spend a lot more dollars mitigating climate change.
In Europe it’s going to be cold this winter. That means folks will be burning a lot more energy to stay warm and thereby produce lots more CO2 which, as we all know, is the most harmful man-made chemical yet discovered. Unless we get that CO2 under control this winter, you are going to die.
/sarcasm
It is uncommon for La Nina to deepen into the spring. It usually bottoms out in Dec-Feb. As for NCEP forecasts, they showed -2.5 values the last time, too. Didn’t quite work out that way….
It means a very dry winter and spring, plus 6-9 months more after it rises above -.5 on the graph above. This is for that part of the US below the jet stream in the central states.
Buy wheat futures.
More definetely relevant info on the subject, see
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/yes-it-appears-that-a-historic-super-la-nina-is-just-few-months-ahead-243.php
(- posted earlier today.)
K.R. Frank
As someone, along with my partner Joe D Aleo, who said back in May this La Nina was not over as the cold PDO Ninas last 21 months, and it would be back, let me also say the NCEP enso forecast is a joke. It had a warm episode developing back in May and though not as bad as Nasa and Hansen, it is a lousy model and only reacts to current trends, much like the longer term climate models. You will find that the frontier research and euro models destroy it routinely.
That being said, the across the board forecast of a cooling amo is huge! I am on record as saying the objective global temp will drop to at least -.15C by march, though its highly doubtful the Enso 3.4 goes below -1.2… The bigger news is in the atlantic!!!! See global temp forecasts there against last year… its night and day.
The big fall is coming in the amo and also the global temps.. The modeling is certainly showing the tropical atlantic cooling in a much more rational fashion than its way overdone ( IMO) enso 3.4.
One should go back to the archives of the CFS and remember who said what and when. Followers of Joe D and I on Weatherbell know from the get go that the basis of our fall and winter forecast was for the nina to still be around, but that the CFS is now way overdone and reactionary.
The cooling atlantic is not the end of the overall warm amo, but is in line with what started happening in the 1950s, as is the PDO. In 10-15 years, this whole silly climate debate should be over as once both of them are cool in tandem, they will not have a leg to stand on. But be patient and dont overdo, and continue to fight on facts with comparison to what is the smoking gun of the climate fight… the pattern of the 1950s and the similarities from sea ice to overall weather patterns to what we are seeing today. When studying that, you will really see something remarkable.. more so than a computer model that is out of control
Last winter we had 16 metres of snow compared with our average 11 metres (daily fresh accumulation). I’m expecting a snowy winter, and have been preparing for the past two months. We are going to be ready.
To Tom_r, see the link in my previous comment, here you have a statistic over “succeses” for the previous model forecasts: NCEP did a MUCH BETTER jon at predicting the 2010 La Nina.
In fact almost all other models failed to tell in advance that a La Nina was coming in 2010, and they are not saying much about a la nina now either.
K.R. Frank
If that prediction turns out right, it would give a 3 month running mean well below 2.0. That didn’t even happen in 1973 (see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml)
Oops, right there on the graph…last January, -1.5. Next January 0.5 to 1 cooler.
-Jay
Well, if it’s the same as last winter, Denver will be very dry and the mountains will be slammed with snow. Great, if you’re a skier!
We already planned on watering frequently this winter but I sure hope we have a cool wet May like last year to make up for it. I don’t usually have higher water bills in the winter.
We’ve already had a very dry autumn. We finally had a little rain today. That makes 2 days with rain in the past 3 months. The good news is that we may skip the heavy wet October snow that usually breaks all the tree branches.
Drill, drill, drill. More CO2 is needed to warm us up.
How does “Occupy Snow Drift” grab you?
Was going to flag this in T&N myself yesterday, but it was a lazy Sunday…
The NCEP model forecasts tend to have a fairly wide margin of error from memory over the past 18 months – like almost all models, they struggle to predict turning points with any degree of accuracy. In the early months of the year, once the low point of the first dip had been passed, most models were moving into neutral/mild Nino territory with a levelling, but I don’t think any were showing La Nina to be back by now.
What you can say with reasonable confidence is that, once a trend is established by September we get a continuation of the existing trend until at least the January after, when the trend usually reverses. Question is, will 2012 see a full year of upswing into Nino conditions like 2009, or are we set for a reversal of the 2002-07 period with the occasional Nada punctuating an almost-continuous Nina?
I don’t know if anybody out there is already doing this, but I’ve started to keep a document screencapping the ensemble forecast charts every fortnight. Be interesting to report back in six months to see how they’ve been getting on (be even more interesting if someone’s actually been doing this for a year or more…)
This means Cognitive Disequilibrium. In other words the emperor (Al Gore) has no clothes. A condition sure to cause blindness for relief.
Great. So next year’s crappy summer is going to be even worse than this year’s crappy summer was.
Heathrow airport has just bought another 12 snow clearing devices the size of ocean liners.
They were caught out last year, and the year before, having believed the Warmists claims of an end to snow in the UK. This time, they have ignored the ‘scientific consensus on climate’ and invested £15 million on the skeptics being right.
You can make fools out of business once, perhaps twice, but they will not be fooled any more. The science is no longer ‘settled’, in the eyes of the movers and shapers of business.
.
GW, here is the link
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino12SSTMon.gif