Torpedoing Of The Use Of The Global Average Surface Temperature Trend As The Diagnostic For Global Warming
By Dr. Roger Pielke Senior
There is a new paper by Gerald Meehl of NCAR and other collaborators that has been announced in the media; i.e. see in the International Business Tribune [h/t to Watts Up With That]
Global Warming on Temporary Hold Thanks to Deep Oceans
First, I am glad the authors implicitly acknowledge the importance of the ocean heat changes as the primary diagnostic of climate system heat changes, as I have urged in my papers
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2003: Heat storage within the Earth system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 331-335.
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system. Physics Today, 61, Vol. 11, 54-55.
There are two major issues, however, with the new study that the authors [that the news article reports on] did not seem to recognize:
1. If heat is being sequested in the deeper ocean, it must transfer through the upper ocean. In the real world, this has not been seen that I am aware of. In the models, this heat clearly must be transferred (upwards and downwards) through this layer. The Argo network is spatially dense enough that this should have been seen.
2. Even more important is the failure of the authors to recognize that they have devalued the use of the global average surface temperature as the icon to use to communicate the magnitude of global warming. If this deeper ocean heating actually exists in the real world, it is not observable in the ocean and land surface temperatures. To monitor global warming, we need to keep track of the changes in Joules in the climate system, which, as clearly indicated in the new study by Meehl and colleagues, is not adequately diagnosed by the global, annual-averaged surface temperature trends.
The news article has the text [highlight added]
Global warming is temporarily on hold as the deep ocean currents and circulations absorb the sun’s heat before releasing it finally, scientists said on Sunday.
The study conducted by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia was published in the Sept. 18 issue of the journal Nature Climate Change.The last decade saw an incessant growth in greenhouse gas emissions which ideally should have increased Earth’s temperature. However, Earth’s temperature didn’t increase vastly. Where was the “missing heat” going?To find out the mystery, Gerald Meehl, lead author of the study that revealed the connection between global warming and temperature hiatus caused by ocean’s heat absorption, and scientists at the NCAR in Colorado ran five simulations on a computer model that studied the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, oceans and sea ice.The study revealed that temperature has already increased by several degrees in this century and will increase more in the coming days but the hiatus period will interrupt the increase. During this period, the missing temperature will lurk inside the deep ocean.“We will see global warming go through hiatus periods in the future, however, these periods would likely last only about a decade or so, and warming would then resume. This study illustrates one reason why global temperatures do not simply rise in a straight line,” said Meehl.
Kevin Trenberth, a study author and NCAR scientist, said: “… this study suggests the missing energy has indeed been buried in the ocean, the heat has not disappeared and so it cannot be ignored. It must have consequences.”
They found the vast area deeper than 1,000 feet (305 meters) warmed by about 18 to 19 percent more during the hiatus periods than at other times. Meanwhile, shallower global oceans above 1,000 feet warmed by 60 percent less than during non-hiatus periods in the simulation.
The study also revealed the regional signature of oceanic warming during hiatus periods. During a hiatus, average sea-surface temperatures decrease across the tropical Pacific, while they tend to increase at higher latitudes.
Meehl says these patterns are similar to those observed during a La Niña event.
“Global temperatures tend to drop slightly during La Niña, as cooler waters reach the surface of the tropical Pacific, and they rise slightly during El Niño, when those waters are warmer,” he added.
A final comment on this paper, if heat really is deposited deep into the ocean (i.e. Joules of heat) it will dispersed through the ocean at these depths and unlikely to be transferred back to the surface on short time periods, but only leak back upwards if at all. The deep ocean would be a long-term damper of global warming, that has not been adequately discussed in the climate science community.
@Robert E. Phelan at 1:04 pm
“how does this advance the discussion?”
How on earth can one advance a discussion of virtual reality which proposes hidden and unmeasurable outcomes?
If the trapped heat is not found under water then I have another culprit to blame: the stone. I bet there’s a lot of heat trapped underground!
“Could we have some observational data that backs this claim?”
Data we don’t need no stickin data!!!!!!!!!!!
“
“scientists at the NCAR in Colorado ran five simulations on a computer model that studied the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, oceans and sea ice.
The study revealed that temperature has already increased by several degrees in this century”
Such as study cannot “reveal” anything. It can and does help define a hypothesis. “the deep ocean has warmed several degress over the last century.” Assuming arguendo that “several degrees” is in fact quantified, this is now testable and falisifiable. This is the first step in the scientific process. No on to step two: gather data which supports or disproves the hypothesis. Step three: other scientists (with no vested interest in the proof or disproof of the hypothesis) replicate the result (or fail to) using independent means.
Then and only then can we say that we have *shown* anything.
So, they ran a model they created, with data they inputted, which gave them results they wanted to see?
And straight from the ARGO web page – Floats will cycle to 2000m depth devery 10 days, with 4-5 year lifetimes for individual instruments.
I’m with Pielke Sr here, the buoys go down far enough to have found if not the missing heat as a whole but an upward temperature change over time.
I can ask my three year old a question and have better luck of not hearing the answer I’m looking for!
Aside from the model miasma, this better not be a case of percentages based on different numbers so that the increases and decreases seem more meaningful. ( I wouldn`t put it past them.)
He seeks it here, he seeks it there.
That Trenberth seeks it everywhere.
Be it in oceans or be it in peat.
That damned, elusive, missing heat!
I have a new theory.
I think the extra heat is hiding deep under the LAND.
It sneaked down there when no one was looking – probably going down a volcano. In amongst that magma, a few degrees more or less would not be noticed. But it will come out again, unless we keep paying our CARBON TAXES!!!
BP Found Trenberth’s Sunken Heat At The Bottom Of The Gulf Of Mexico
lol, yes, BP ran into all that heat when they tried to plug that leak………
Cheif scammer Trenberth could have claimed the heat is buried at the centre of the earth. Now we know that’s hot. It makes just as much sense.
This calls to mind a recent comment published in a journal……
“Numerous attempts have been made to constrain climate sensitivity with observations”
Don’t try to put chains on our data with observations!!!
Anna Lemma says:
September 20, 2011 at 1:22 pm
I’m just a layman, but can someone tell me HOW the heat remains “sequestered” in the deep oceans? IIRC from high school physics, a warm body, even with insulation, will radiate its heat to cooler surroundings
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yes………
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Gary Swift says:
September 20, 2011 at 1:15 pm
Wouldn’t the extra heat also show up in sea level rise due to thermal expansion?
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yes….and the latest state of the art Envisat says sea levels have been falling for the past two years at the rate of 5mm/yr = 10 mm
Julienne says Greenland melt is contributing 1/10th of an inch, and CU is adding .3mm/yr to try and hide it…..
So from that we can say sea levels are actually falling faster than Envisat says it is……………
Curt…that struck me too…”The study revealed that temperature has already increased by several degrees in this century”
That looks like complete nonsense to me, but then it followed with this hoot =:-D
” and will increase more in the coming days”
It really is worse than we thought!
May I suggest two possible, and simple explanations for the “missing” heat.
1. The heat calculated by the models was exactly that, a calculation. It was an incorrect calculation and the heat is simply not there. It wasn’t detected by the surface, satellite, or ARGO thermometers because it never passed by them. (denier science)
2. Invisible aliens converted the heat into matter, transported the matter into the deep oceans, and reconverted it back into heat. (the obvious reason)
The heat is not mysteriously locked in deep ocean layers, but that’s a convenient, if clever, way to throw a red herring into the debate, and justify an entire new flood of needed funding. Ultra-deep submersibles and temperature recording studies…. But just watch..the first deep temperature measurements will be taken just downstream from some sub-sea vents.
Robert E. Phelan says:
September 20, 2011 at 1:04 pm
The dog ate my homework.
Garry says: September 20, 2011 at 12:58 pm
I might agree with the sentiment, but how does this advance the discussion?
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It sets the bar to the level of seriousness necessary for discussing such matters. It is nothing but a work of fiction wrote in a series of code.
So, just *the last ten years* the heat suddenly decided that the neighborhood in the upper ocean was getting crowded with undesirables and decided it was time to load up the kids and head for the suburbs in the deep ocean?
That’s the theory?
They do seem to understand their models quite well, afterall, they are able to “tweak” the code to say whatever they want the result to be.
Unfortunately for them, the correlation between their models and any REAL measurable factors is becoming vanishingly small.
Can someone answer the question of CO2 absorption saturation?
I thought that increasing the CO2 in the atmosphere reached a saturation point, at which time it becomes less and less effective as a re-radiator of longwave energy. At what concentration would that occur?
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STOP THE PRESSES – Scientific computer simulation shows the “missing heat” is hiding in Al Gore’s generous posterior. Keep feeding the boy or we’re all goners.
Jean Parisot says:
September 20, 2011 at 12:36 pm
“If the deep ocean is a damper, then how do those tipping points work?”
There’s a switch in the broom closet at NCAR.
So, from the ARGO Global Change Analysis page they show a graph of ocean heat content from
1950 – 2010 http://www-argo.ucsd.edu/levitus_2009_figure.jpg
However, even the solid temperature numbers they reference show 0.06C change. That doesn’t seem like much to me.
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/global_change_analysis.html
Rapture of the Deep! They are suffering from Rapture of the Deep. They went too deep and came up too fast. Get them into a decompression chamber.
No…wait…they are suffering from Rapture of the Supercomputer! They modeled too high and cannot come down at all. Send them to a residential treatment center for six weeks.
This is almost as nutty as the aliens will kill us crap.
This is the desperation of men who are beginning to be seen for what they are – frauds. Pielke seems to be maintaining a polite tone. Which is to his credit.
Michael Penny says:
September 20, 2011 at 12:57 pm
If the deep ocean is absorbing the heat instead of the surface then sea level must continue to rise. Where is the sea level rise to confirm their model? I don’t see it in the CU Sea Level Research Group plots or data.
What a good point. I know we’re not talking in terms of feet here – or even inches . But I understand satellites can measure changes in sea level on quite minute levels, so we should expect to observe – in the real world – sea level rises in accordance with this supposed “stored heat.” Do we?
Trenberth may be missing a bit of heat, but physicists seem to have mislaid 90% of the universe. You need a pretty big carpet to hide that sized problem under and physicists have come up with a really good one, namely Dark Matter. Since hiding the missing heat in the oceans is getting harder all the time maybe Trenberth could take a leaf from the physicist’s playbook and invoke Dark Matter as an explanation for the missing heat.