WUWT reader “Ari” tips us to this interesting puzzle on the Central England Temperature series and the Met Office temperature series in the UK doing some wonky diversion.
Reposted from: TheWeatherOutlook » TWO Community Discussion » Weather »
A problem with Temperature
I don’t think people will be able to enlighten me on this one, but probably should be aware of it. It’s a bit technical.
If you work out the CET annual temperature anomalies and then the METO England annual temperature anomalies and deduct one from the other, you should just get a line bouncing around the zero line (unless the climate of one is moving out of phase with the other). If you take 1961-90 as your base period and deduct CET anomaly from England anomaly for all 101 years during which the England series has existed, you get this:
Where the line is above the zero line, that’s a year when the England anomaly is warmer than the CET anomaly and vice-versa. For the 101 years of the METO England series, you get the bouncing around zero that you would expect, then for the last 4 to 8 years, the CET has been growing notably colder than the England anomaly.
So, it seems that one of the series is going astray a bit. I think Essan might chip in here and say the revised CET stations are too cold, but even if you would use the Eden series, you would get something similar (about 0.1c less). Note that this doesn’t mean that it hasn’t got cooler in the last few years. But, according to the METO regional series, it hasn’t cooled by as much.
Here’s the same graph with the red line showing the same thing for the Eden anomaly. The same problem is evident:
I have looked at your explanation and compared the CET anomaly with just the METO series anomaly for the Midlands. You still get the same effect:
BUT, curiouser and curiouser, if we do the same thing with the CET vis-a-vis the METO series for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, we don’t get this problem! Instead, we just get the bouncing around zero that we would expect. Of course, the bounces are of greater magnitude as would be expected as places further away from CET have greater deviations from it on an individual year basis. Here, for example, is the graph for Wales anomaly minus CET anomaly:
So, we now seem to have reached a position where the CET is remaining in relative phase with the METO series for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, but has become colder than the METO series for England (I have also tried the METO series for England North and England South and you get the same thing). Or, rather, the METO series for England (and English regions) is moving out of phase with everything else.
Why this is happening remains the mystery.
=====================================================================
You can read the rest of the thread here, ideas and comments welcome. To me, it looks like a case of UHI pollution in one series and not another.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Was Hansen able to make some ‘ adjustments’ on this data . . . ?
There is more visibility of the CET data with several unbiased observers. It keeps it honest. Compare that to the secrecy of the Met Office and what ‘adjustments’ they fiddle with to torture the data. Of course to the naive AGWer that makes me a conspiracist, even though the MetO’S fiddling is plain to see. None so blind, and all that.
PS knowing the moderation policy of TheWeatherOutlook only too well i suggest whoever originally posted this over there get ready to be banned.
Does that anomaly get added to the overall anomaly of Northern Ireland, Scotland or wales in such a way as to suggest warmer temperatures for those areas individually?
Joy!! Another hockey stick
CET temperatures are compiled by Hadley. ’nuff said.
The so-called ‘anomaly’ is in fact simply the measure of the political desperation of the AGW movement.
Hmm. Something awfully familiar about the shape of that graph. Can’t place it…it’ll come to me…
Hockey Stick? But is it man made?
There, I said it.
Seen this before?
http://www.geoffstuff.com/spaghetti%20Darwin.jpg
I continue to be amazed by the effort invested in torturing data that are essentially impossible to extract from major noise.
eco-geek, I thought that the hockey stick was Mann made.
The CET uses rural stations to attempt to filter out Urban Heat Island effects, I would say that the Met Office series is contaminated because it uses more urban series and is not correcting sufficiently. Either that or some of the colder stations (e.g. Redhill) have been removed from the Met Office stations that are used in their series.
Hmm. Hide the decline?
(That’s what people will think, once this is publicized. Another arrow in the elephant.)
Well it has been bloody cold in England for a few years, perhaps its just that.
Gary Hladik says:
September 5, 2011 at 11:38 pm
Hmm. Something awfully familiar about the shape of that graph. Can’t place it…it’ll come to me…
Maybe it reminds you of part of a certain Harry_read_me.txt file?
valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$
2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor
According to the UK Met. Office it has been getting warmer over the past 10 years due to AGW. Unfortunately where I live this has not happened and a cooling is in progress.
Gotta love these hockey stick designs. This one has a curve that starts quite late – in 1990. I have now seen these hockey sticks with curves as early as 1870 and every point in between. Question is, who gives a puck?
Another scandal in the making, I would say.
Manipulation of the METO data, to make it warmer, obviously.
Mind you, the CET series is not exactly perfect. One of the temperature stations is sitting in the middle of Manchester International Airport, next to the engine test stands. You can imagine what a ten-minute jet engine test will do to the temperature there.
.
Here is the Extended Hadley record to 1772
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
It clearly shows the cooling in recent years which observationally I would confirm by an inability to ripen tomatoes in my garden in recent years and a greater level of frosts.
tonyb
Runaway water vapor feedback in England; now empirically proven! Can’t take long now and the London cabbies will become Gondolieres.
I am sure that the UK “Team” are applying the same rigorous “Quality” Adjustments to the METO record as the NIWA made to the New Zealand record. With exactly the same results.
Perhaps we should bring this to the attention of Booker or Delingpole.
climatereason says:
September 6, 2011 at 5:23 am
It clearly shows the cooling in recent years which observationally I would confirm by an inability to ripen tomatoes in my garden in recent years and a greater level of frosts.
Tony, take a tip, I have many beautiful vines of big juicy ripe plum tomatos this year, after trouble like you’ve had. How did I do it when the Earth’s enhanced greenhouse effect seems to have been oversold to us?
I built my own greenhouse. If you want a job doing properly…
“Ralph says:
September 6, 2011 at 2:41 am
Mind you, the CET series is not exactly perfect. One of the temperature stations is sitting in the middle of Manchester International Airport, next to the engine test stands. You can imagine what a ten-minute jet engine test will do to the temperature there.”
Absolutely – and still the MetO shows warmer than CET! Where are the MetO stations placed to get a result like this?
Man-made climate change again.. or Mann-made..