Hurricane Katia now category 4 3 2 1

Katia, after dropping into tropical storm speeds has regained hurricane strength and has rapidly grown to a Category 4 hurricane. Fortunately, it appears it will miss the USA east coast. Here’s the latest tracks and bulletins:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/refresh/atl_overview+gif/1314986244.gif

Track:

Tracking map in high definition (updates every 3-4 hours, click to enlarge)

Track map in HiDef – click to enlarge:

http://www.intelliweather.net/imagery/intelliweather/hurrtrack-sat_atlantic_halfdisk_1280x960.jpg

Model:

The Models have it following a similar track to Irene towards the coast, but more eastward, with a sharp right turn:

ECMWF 10-day Maximum wind speed swath map

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Bulletins

BULLETIN

HURRICANE KATIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  37A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011

800 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011

...KATIA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.0N 68.4W

ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BERMUDA

FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST.  KATIA IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE

CORE OF KATIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF THE

UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST

TODAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

205 MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST

OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER

ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT

FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF

AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL

WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE

POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF

1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

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http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/tropical-cyclone/

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Caleb

Never say never. I don’t drop my guard until these big hurricanes have finished making the curve and are heading safely away out to sea. (And even then there was one that looped, and returned in a weakened state a couple days later.)
I have heard no one state they are 100% certain Katia is going out to sea. 95% still leaves a 5% chance it will somehow disolve the ridge curving it out, and be a “short cut” storm to the coast.
Not that 5% is a reason to be an alarmist. But never say say never.

Looks like Bermuda is directly in Katia’s path?

Mike Bromley the Kurd

Not to mention that that course “could” hook straight into the Bay of Fundy, turning low-lying Truro, Nova Scotia into a submerged ruin, “should” the already-heady B-of-F tides decide to be high when the storm surge alights at the mouth of the bay. There ain’t no dodging bullets when 4 meter storm surge comiserates with 18 meter tides. I’m sure glad Hansen, Mann et al haven’t tinkered with sea level up that way. The tidal bore would be anything but.

Rosco

Does the world really want a buildup of moisture and cloud in the northern hemisphere as we wend our merry way toward your fall and winter ?
But as a resident of sub tropical Queensland Australia we certainly don’t want it here either.
How come the ENSO meter seems broken? Surely another La Nina with all the cool wet weather we in East Aus get is on its way ?
In 2009 we had several days in mid August where we hit 31 C or ~87 F – this is our winter mind you – about 8 C over average.
The last 12 months we had way below average maximums and heaps of rain – November to ~April – you may have noticed a report or 2 about it.
May arrived with the chill I’d remembered from my childhood and we had mostly fine cold weather – heck almost a drought.
Then late July the clouds came back and the showers returned – not heavy but unseasonal.
Ausust cleared for a week or so but we hardly got above 20 and now in September when we can easily get maximums of 27 – 30 C it has hardly stopped raining – again not heavy – and we are seeing much less sunshine – our Spring is normally dry – the Gov’t banned fireworks here because as ex English our nation celebrated Guy Fawkes and in November here it was simply too hot and dry to go around lighting bonfires and throwing fireworks around.
The bushland around where I lived burnt out of control every year.
Not sure If I’ve gotten off track here but I’ve enjoyed it.

Is Bob Ward already writing the opinion piece about Katia hitting England next week, thereby demonstrating AGW?

beng

Katia? That’s just a huge washing-machine that will stay out in the shipping lanes. The remnants of Tropical Storm Lee, OTOH, has graced the central Appalachians w/much needed rain. Thanks, TS Lee.

James

To be honest, its cold grey, windy and raining sideways today in the UK.
We probably wouldn’t notice the remains of katia, as anything other than normal ‘summer’ weather !

James

Just so you know the more intense the hurricane the easier it is for that hurricane to run through a cold front! Look out NYC!

Kari Parsons

I think that after Hurricane Irene, everyone should look into purchasing preparedness kits. It doesn’t hurt to be prepared in times like these. I don’t feel that it’s necessary to panic or be scared about Hurricane Katia, but I do think that people should really look into these types of kits. I actually just bought one for my family at http://1800prepare.com/

Latitude

The NHC seal of approval seems to be the kiss of death….
…within mins of designating Katia a Cat 4……this happened
http://i.imgur.com/48x3z.gif

Here’s Here are the latest tracks and bulletins:”
There, fixed it for ya. 😉

pokerguy

I’m not relaxing either here in the Boston area. Joe Bastardi has finally conceded it’s unlikely to hit, but he’s latched onto the Canadian which is alone in predicting NE landfall. As almost always, he’s been pretty much in the worst case camp from day 1, showing near jubilation when the models shifts substantially west a few days ago…
Bastardi’s brilliant, but he can rub me the wrong way at times..

Caleb

“Bastardi’s brilliant, but he can rub me the wrong way at times..”
When he is happy, it is not because a hurricane is threatening his fellow man, but rather because his forecast is right. He has been predicting a “close call,” rather than a “way, way out to sea” path, for some time now.
He did not look at all happy when discussing the chance he might be wrong, and Katia might be a “short cut storm,” a few days ago. For one thing, his Dad lives right where a short cut storm would hit.
Around five years ago he forecast New England would get northwest winds through most of
January. I was very impressed, because it happened, however Joe was miserable, because he expected arctic air and cross-polar-flow, but the northwest winds were amazingly balmy, (for New Hampshire in January,) due to a Chinook that blasted in from the North Pacific and diluted the cold with mildness.
For a solid month he appeared on the air with circles under his eyes, agonizing about the fact he had failed the people who were counting on him.
When Joe shows ” jubilation” it is because he has worked very hard, and got it right.

*fingers crossed* stay out to sea. The camel’s back is in sad shape.
The volcanoes have stopped honking as hard lately… I hope some tranquility returns to weather patterns.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=natla_slp
Looks like Ireland, Scotand and Norway has the most reason to be nervous about Katia. Btw stormsurf predicted Irene’s track and strenght pretty good.
U.S, better watch the progress of invest95 though..

Barbara Skolaut

Dumb question here – what’s the orange circle with the grid inside, near the top of the 1st picture? I see it a lot in hurricane depictions, but haven’t been able to find out what it means. (Probably something simple and obvious I should have been able to figure out.)

Barbara Skolaut says:
September 6, 2011 at 1:01 pm

What’s the orange circle with the grid inside, near the top of the 1st picture? I see it a lot in hurricane depictions, but haven’t been able to find out what it means.

The color key is right there, but shown as a solid color. Those areas are where development, if any happens, should happen. Orange means something like there’s a medium chance (30-50%) of tropical depression or cyclone forming in the next 24 hours.

Steve M. from TN

Barbara Skolaut says:
September 6, 2011 at 1:01 pm
Dumb question here – what’s the orange circle with the grid inside, near the top of the 1st picture? I see it a lot in hurricane depictions, but haven’t been able to find out what it means. (Probably something simple and obvious I should have been able to figure out.)
Those are systems that are being watched that may develop into a named system. I think the colors denote the probability of the system becoming a threat.

Normally, my red-blooded male genes ignore such feelings, but I don’t have a good feeling about TD 14. It’s a good time of year for a big storm, and it’s at a low enough latitude to hang south for a long ways before it curves north. I really should look at maps and stuff for reasons to move the storm, but the track map looks almost exactly what I expected to see.
Yeah, I suppose now I can’t even call myself a scientist wannabe.

Phil Nizialek

Barbara,
If you are referring to the gridded circles on the “Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity” map, they represent areas of disturbed weather with a chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. The color of the grid gives you the range of percentage chance of development in the 48 hours after the issuance of the map. The color key at the bottom of the map shows the ranges represented by each color.
This map is issued on a regular bais by the National hurricane Center (“NHC”). You can find their website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. It is one of many useful resources providing information regarding tropical activity in the North Atlantic (and elsewhere).

eyesonu

National Hurricane Center is showing a strong hurricane headed directly towards the east coast. It is well reported.
Their best estimate is that it will veer sharply to the north and then east before reaching shore.
A reasonable person would realize that this is a forecast or best guess. They are generally quite accurate on 4-5 day track records. That reasonable person should know that panic and hysteria is not called for, but should be prepared for any possible change in the weather.
A combination of ‘just the facts’ from the NHC and the application of some ‘common sense’ from the public is the best policy for all concerned.
For those lacking common sense or prone to hysteria, RUN FOR THE HILLS. Don’t forget to turn out the lights and turn off the A/C and flush the toilet and close the door behind yourself.

I wonder at the rate is going if it will be another 1987 for the UK.

clipe

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements
WOCN31 CWHX 061745
Tropical cyclone information statement issued by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:06 PM ADT Tuesday
6 September 2011.
———————————————————————
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
=new= Newfoundland
=new= Nova Scotia.
For hurricane katia.
The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is monitoring hurricane katia
This week. Another statement is planned for Wednesday morning.
———————————————————————
==discussion==
Hurricane katia has been tracking toward the northwest for several
days and is a major hurricane (category 3). Based on a suite of
computer models and expected evolution of weather systems over
Eastern Canada, katia is forecast to make a sharp eastward turn on
Friday. That would result in impacts limited to the offshore
district but with at least large waves reaching the southern
coastlines of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
The current plan at the Canadian Hurricane Centre is to issue another
general statement like this Wednesday morning, once we are able to
re-assess data and computer models overnight. We could begin issuing
regular (6-hourly) bulletins Wednesday afternoon. The current
long-range forecasts for the southernmost Canadian marine territory
is for gale-force winds on Friday and/or Saturday.
It will be important to stay tuned to our updates on katia this week
as the timing of the eastward turn will be critical to the forecast.
Predicting the timing of sharp turns like this can be particularly
challenging.
Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest hurricane track information map.
Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.
END/FOGARTY
http://weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html

eyesonu says on September 6, 2011 at 4:20 pm
National Hurricane Center is showing a strong hurricane headed directly towards the east coast. It is well reported.
Their best estimate is that it will veer sharply to the north and then east before reaching shore.

Wow … pray it it takes a hard right (for a hurricane) or it is ‘Katy bar the door’!
Needed: About a 90 degree turn to starboard (from present course) by 2 PM Friday afternoon.
.

It would be ironic if Hurricane Katia travels over Iceland’s Katla volcano. 🙂

Ian W

The weather outlook website at
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx
has a projection for where it will be on Monday 12th September. Hopefully it doesn’t cause a tidal surge down the east coast of England.

Per NHC, TD 14 (still not a named storm, and not expected to strengthen for a bit), is on a track that overruns Irene’s birthplace and then follows her track for a while.
Per Ryan’s ECMWF plot, note it expects another GoM storm with landfall near New Orleans.
If this keeps up we’ll have people speculating that the NHC is not naming storms to make their 2011 forecast work out. 🙂

Ian W

I have made a mistake in my last post. It is another depression that will be near the UK on 12th September

beng

The remnants of TS Lee interacting w/the stationary cold-front deposited rather gently nearly 5 inches of rain in western MD over several days.
An ideal drought-buster w/hardly any runoff.

Phil Nizialek

Calm down, everone. Katia is an Atlantic storms whcih will have minimal effect on the US East Coast. It’s not going to “bust through”. How close the storm that forms out of 14 gets to the East Coast will depend on the path of the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. As for that sytem in the GOM, until it gets its act together it is impossible to know if it will move west into Mexico, or north towards the US Gulf Coast. If it moves north, it will in all liklihood entrain dry air from Texas (take a look at the GOM water vapor loop here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html) and remain weak, like Lee. A northward move would also keep the storm that develops from 14 far from the East Coast. Even if the Gulf Storm stays south, I think chances are best that the 14 storm stays offshore as well.

Phil Nizialek

By the way, North atlantic ACE is about 27% above normal right now. Naming is way above normal. That being said, 8 of the 12 named systems have ACE of less than 2 each. Not sure some of those deserved names.

Per NHC, TD 14 is promoted to TS Maria:
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011
CONSIDERING THAT THERE WERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS AND A RECENT ONE WITH STRONGER WINDS…THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS.

MARIA IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF
THE TRACK MODELS…WHICH ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT…KEEP MARIA ON
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
ONCE MARIA REACHES THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 3
DAYS…THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD THEN BEGIN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
WHICH IS BOUNDED BY THE GFS ON THE NORTH AND THE ECMWF ON THE
SOUTH.
The “system” in the GoM is still undeveloped:
THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
21N93W AT 07/0900 UTC AND REMAINS AT THE TAIL END OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER
S MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-96W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.

AndyW

This may be a Michael Fish non hurricane if it recurves out to the UK!
God bless Katia and all who turn turtle on her 😀
Andy

Michael Penny

Would Katia have made Cat. 4 if not for satelites?

The 1600 CDT update has the GoM storm now Tropical Storm Nate:
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING
FEATURES NOTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND AND PEMEX OIL
RIGS…ALONG WITH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA…SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED…WITH
LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED. THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED
ON THIS SYSTEM. SINCE THE RECON PLANE FOUND 53 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL
ALONG WITH SFMR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT…THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED
NATE WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT.
NATE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING
FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER…THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER…IF AT ALL…IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.

I think the NHC often underestimates the effects of dry air, especially with stronger storms.

I recommend we collect enough money to send the NHC a keyboard capable of lowercase letters as well. Strange they can’t afford one yet.

jeanparisot

omnologos, if it doesn’t look like a telex then its not important.