Russ Steele writes:
Iceland Update: Katla is rumbling again
I wrote about the possibility that Katla is Iceland might become active again in this decade here, based on a swarm of earth quakes. Now those quakes are getting more intense.
Every time Katla has erupted in human history the human race has suffered. Now, with our dependence on air travel to transport food and people for business and tourism the impact will be significant in the short term. Long term the shortening of the growing season will impact the global food supply. The northern grain growing regions in the US, Canada and Russia will be unable to produce the surpluses that have fed hungry mouths around the world. Some regions will shift southward, but will not be enough to feed the hungry.
Now the Katla quakes are becoming more intense, over shorter intervals. More details here.
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A possible small eruption under the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in south Iceland has produced a surge of glacial meltwater, a jökulhlaup, which has caused flooding and cut the main road through the area. A bridge has been swept away, and local evacuations are apparently taking place.
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Last summer, nearly a year ago today, I wrote:
Katla making noise
Katla volcano in iceland sees 14 earthquakes in 48 hours. This may mean nothing, or it may be a prelude to an eruption. Either way it bears watching.
The difference between then and now is that the grouping of the epicenters has more focus. I’m not sure if that means anything, but it is worth noting.
Last year I also drew attention to this statement from Iceland’s president:
Katla Volcano usually erupts every century, says Iceland’s President Olafur Grimsson. and the last eruption was in 1918. “The time for Katla to erupt is coming close.”
“I don’t say if, but I say when Katla will erupt,” Grimsson says. “We have been waiting for that eruption for several years.”
Don’t want to sound alarmist, but I’m sure I remember that when Eyjafjallajökull went off last year, Icelandic geologists were saying that in the past there was strong evidence to suggest that Katla would erupt within 2-3 years.
Hope it is not a big one.
Just The Facts
I see that the blast in 1918 caused the southern coast of Iceland south of Katla to be extended by 3 miles out from the mud and debris flow.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katla_volcano#Historic_activity
Don Keiller says:
July 9, 2011 at 2:39 pm
“,.. I’m sure I remember that when Eyjafjallajökull went off last year, Icelandic geologists were saying that in the past there was strong evidence to suggest that Katla would erupt within 2-3 years…”
Thats a somewhat biased assumption. There was a lot of mention that ‘whenever Eyjafjallajökull erupted that Katla’ would follow because they always erupted in tandem. The problem is that until last year, Eyjafjallajökull had four known eruptions on record. Two of them were in the same year, one was a two year lead, and the other was a ten year lead. But Eyjafjallajökull has an average repose period of 423 years (from the four recorded eruptions) and Katla has an average repose of 64.5 years.
It’s pretty hard for Eyjafjallajökull to erupt and not have Katla either in a run up stage to an eruption or having just finished one.
The part about the Eyjafjallajökull event that I remember the geologist ruminating over, was if this would illustrate the long hypothesized connection between the two volcanoes. Even 3D plots of the quakes didn’t reveal a connection.
Post Eyjafjallajökull there were a few scattered quakes that may indicate sill or dike emplacement on the North Western flank of Katla, but these more recent quakes aren’t anywhere near that.
Will it erupt? Yep. When? When it’s ready, and not a moment sooner.
Overview of the site where the bridge was washed away.
http://http.ruv.straumar.is/static.ruv.is/vefur/Katla_fyrir_net.wmv
Der Spiegel reports on possible Hekla’s Eruption
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0,1518,772759,00.html
Come together, right now?
If this volcano pops and a corelation between it’s eruption and the Little Ice Age pans out could someone tell me when I should start my car and tractor and leave them running? You know, to create some more global warming to offset the effects of the volcano.
Maybe Mr. Mann would know.
Seriously though, what might be in store for us lowly humans if there is a coincidence of this eruption and an extremely quiet sun?
I don’t think I will regret moving from Canada to high ground near the equator if the answer is what I think it will be. Just sayin’.
Perry says:
July 9, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Overview of the site where the bridge was washed away.
http://http.ruv.straumar.is/static.ruv.is/vefur/Katla_fyrir_net.wmv
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Nice video, and a reminder of who is in charge, in case anyone forgot.
Wasn’t there some mega storm predicted that could hit California a few months back and then recently the threat of a huge solar flare that could fry all our electric systems and now this volcano could send the earth into permanent winter.
I see the “could” word way too much. Someone must be making money off it.
“…blog that is also covering Katla…
“http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=1152”
If you remove the “p=1152” you get more recent updates:
http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/
Amino Acids in Meteorites says: July 9, 2011 at 2:40 pm (Edit)
I see that the blast in 1918 caused the southern coast of Iceland south of Katla to be extended by 3 miles out from the mud and debris flow.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katla_volcano#Historic_activity
Yes, history can be sobering, e.g.:
“The effects of recent volcanic eruptions on winters are modest in scale but historically their effects have been significant.
Most recently, the 1991 explosion of Mount Pinatubo, a stratovolcano in the Philippines, cooled global temperatures for about 2–3 years.[2]
In 1883, the explosion of Krakatoa (Krakatau) created volcanic winter-like conditions. The next four years after the explosion were unusually cold, and the winter of 1887 to 1888 included powerful blizzards.[3] Record snowfalls were recorded worldwide.
The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, a stratovolcano in Indonesia, occasioned mid-summer frosts in New York State and June snowfalls in New England and Newfoundland and Labrador in what came to be known as the “Year Without a Summer” of 1816.
A paper written by Benjamin Franklin in 1783 blamed the unusually cool summer of 1783 on volcanic dust coming from Iceland, where the eruption of Laki volcano had released enormous amounts of sulfur dioxide, resulting in the death of much of the island’s livestock and a catastrophic famine which killed a quarter of the population. Temperatures in the northern hemisphere dropped by about 1 °C in the year following the Laki eruption.
In 1600, the Huaynaputina in Peru erupted. Tree ring studies show that 1601 was cold. Russia had its worst famine in 1601 to 1603. From 1600 to 1602, Switzerland, Latvia and Estonia had exceptionally cold winters. The wine harvest was late in 1601 in France, and in Peru and Germany wine production collapsed. Peach trees bloomed late in China, and Lake Suwa in Japan froze early.[4]
In 1452 or 1453, a cataclysmic eruption of the submarine volcano Kuwae caused worldwide disruptions.
The Great Famine of 1315–1317 in Europe may have been precipitated by a volcanic event,[5] perhaps that of Kaharoa, New Zealand, which lasted about five years.[6]
The extreme weather events of 535–536 are most likely linked to a volcanic eruption.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_winter
Based on a compilation;
1680 – VEI5? – Tongkoko, Sulaw
1673 – VEI5? – Gamkonora, Halmahera
1667 – VEI5 – Shikotsu (Tarumai), Japan
1663 – VEI5 – Usu, Japan
1660 – VEI4 – Katla
1660 – VEI6 – Long Island (Papua New Guinea)
1650 – VEI6 – Kolumbo, Santorini
1641 – VEI6 – Mount Parker
1640 – VEI5 – Komaga-Take, Japan
1625 – VEI5 – Katla
1612 – VEI4 – Katla
1600 – VEI6 – Huaynaputina
1593 – VEI5? – Raung, Java
1586 – VEI5? – Kelut, Java
1580 – VEI4 – Katla
1580 ± 20 – VEI6 – Billy Mitchell
I found 13 major eruptions, and left in the 3 VEI4s from Katla, between 1580 and 1680. Whereas from 1900 to present I’ve found;
1902 – VEI6(?) – Santa Maria, Guatemala
1907 – VEI5 – Ksudach, Kamchatka
1912 – VEI6 – Novarupta (Katmai)
1932 – VEI5+ – Azul, Cerro (Quizapu)
1956 – VEI5 – Bezymianny, Kamchatchka
1980 – VEI5 – St Helens, US
1982 – VEI5 – El Chichon, Mexico
1991 – VEI6 – Pinatubo, Philippines
8 major eruptions, and none since 1991.
http://tomix.homelinux.org/~thomas/eth/7_semester/large-scale_climate_variability_WS_2006_2007/unterlagen/edit/briffa_1600_volcanic.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age#Volcanic_activity
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_volcanic_eruptions
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107945
Did I miss any?
The earthquakes around Katla have been focusing into three smaller regions, one half-way between Katla and Eyjafjallajokull, the second and current most prominent being in the calderas of Katla, and there is a smaller grouping nearer the coast. This has been going on since April, and has continued after the flood came and went, so I don’t think that this is over yet.
Where’s 40% R(ickity) R(easoning) Gates?
I REALLY want to hear how the additional 100ppm of CO2 added to the atmosphere since (whenever it’s convenient, R) has had such a drastic greenhouse effect that it is causing Katla to boil liquid basalt and spit silica! Heck, the added weight of that whopping 40% increase in atmospheric CO2 (It’s millions of tons, ya know…) is likely depressing the techtonic (gin for the IT folks?) plates about 40% and causing 40% of the earthquakes and tsunamis off Japan!
Hmmmm – Now what made me think about a 40% gin and tonic? With at least 100ppm of anthropogenic lime juice, of course??!!
};>)
Perry says:
July 9, 2011 at 3:43 pm
“Overview of the site where the bridge was washed away.
http://http.ruv.straumar.is/static.ruv.is/vefur/Katla_fyrir_net.wmv ”
Nice series of standing waves in that video…. good footage! Thanks!
Etna is having another puff too it seems. Catania airport is apparently closed while they clear up the mess.
I’ve been watching the earthquakes ever since the other volcano erupted and they were predominently between the two volcanoes and moving more to the east over time, now they are to the south east for the first time and there are a lot more of them, showing the sligh eruption.
Will be interesting to follow what happens in the next couple of months.
Earthquakes associated with a volcano normally shows magma movement in the conduit. Quake depth may be a predictor of timing to eruption but may not. It probably depends on each individual volcano. Those with a slow eruptive cycle are more difficult to predict because our history is scant to non existant.
Katla is different since we have a good history but it is still impossible to state which day, let alone hour, it will spring to life.
Life on Iceland can be exciting.
SSam says:
July 9, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Well… in conjunction with Just The Facts post, if you look at the data at http://www.volcano.si.edu, Katla erupts within twenty years of it’s last eruption about 12.3% of the time.
If you look at known VEI 3 (or greater) eruptions, it averages 78.4 years between eruptions. (eruptive data back to 920 AD). Using that same set and going back to 1920 BC, the average is 186 years.
78.4 years is close to the Gleissberg cycle length of solar activity.
186 years is close to the cycle of the outer gas giants which often coincides with solar grand minima.
Civilization has had excellent luck for the past 150 years, decent luck for the past 500 and at least fair to midland conditions for the past 10K. Can’t last. Never does.
Great. All we need right now to augment a grand minimum in solar activity is one or more volcanoes big enough to inject a load of cooling aerosols into the atmosphere at the same time as well as the glacial stage of the Milankovich cycle knocking on the door. Hear that bell in the distance – it’s the Holocene Interglacial death knoll.
Katla is programming its next eruption just before the NH winter …(Guess Katla is a girl name then ….) 🙂
The recent flood did not change the pattern of the quakes which continues to focus in three areas. I have shown how this focussing developed, and explained why it is occuring and also why, the longer the delay is, the more likely it will be a stronger eruption .