While the press release says University of Exeter, this slide show by Tim Lenton from the University that brought up ClimateGate, UEA, sees tipping worry in every event.
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/Stepscentre/tim-lenton-early-warning-of-climate-tipping-points
From Eurekalert:
Climate change disasters could be predicted
Climate change disasters, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest or collapse of the Atlantic overturning circulation, could be predicted according to University of Exeter research.
Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change, Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter shows that the ‘tipping points’ that trigger these disasters could be anticipated by looking for changes in climate behaviour.
Climate ‘tipping points’ are small changes that trigger a massive shift in climate systems, with potentially devastating consequences. It is already known that climate change caused by human activity could push several potential hazards past their ‘tipping point’. However, it is often assumed that these ‘tipping points’ are entirely unpredictable.
Professor Lenton argues that a system of forecasting could be developed to enable some forewarning of high-risk tipping points. The approach he outlines involves analysing observational data to look for signs that a climate system is slowing down in its response to short-term natural variability (which we experience as the weather). This characteristic behaviour indicates the climate is becoming unstable, and is a common feature of systems approaching critical thresholds known as ‘bifurcation points’.
Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter said: “Many people assume that tipping points which could be passed as a result of human-induced climate change are essentially unpredictable. Recent research shows that the situation is not as hopeless as it may seem: we have the tools to anticipate thresholds, which means we could give societies valuable time to adapt.
“Although these findings give us hope, we are still a long way from developing rigorous early warning systems for these climate hazards.”
Early warning of climate tipping points by Professor Timothy Lenton (University of Exeter) is published in Nature Climate Change volume 1, issue 3, July 2011 and online on Sunday 19 June at 18.00 BST. Copies available on request.
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Here is the transcript for the slide show above.
Tim Lenton – Early warning of climate tipping points – Presentation Transcript
- Early warning of climate tipping points Tim Lenton School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich With special thanks to Valerie Livina, John Schellnhuber, Frank Kwasniok
- Outline Tipping elements Risk assessment Early warning
- Two types of tipping point Bifurcation
- Two types of tipping point Bifurcation No bifurcation
- Policy relevant forcing range IPCC (2007) = High growth = Mid growth = Low growth
- Tipping elements in the climate system Revised from original in Lenton et al. (2008) PNAS 105(6): 1786-1793 October 11, 2010
- Estimates of proximity Lenton & Schellnhuber (2007) Nature Reports Climate Change Results from literature review and workshop
- Likelihood of tipping Kriegler et al. (2009) PNAS 10.1073/pnas.0809117106 Imprecise probability statements from experts Atlantic formally combined Under 2-4 °C warming: Greenland >16% probability of passing at least one of five tipping points Antarctica Under >4 °C warming: >56% probability of passing at least one of Amazon five tipping points El Niño
- Impacts of tipping Lenton, Footitt & Dlugolecki (2009) http://assets.panda.org/downloads/plugin_tp_final_report.pdf Populations exposed to 1-in-100-yr flood events Allianz / WWF report: Increased sea level rise +$25,158 billion exposed assets in port megacities Indian summer monsoon disruption Amazon dieback and drought Aridification of southwest North America October 11, 2010
- Tipping element risk assessment Tipping element Likelihood of Relative Risk score Risk ranking passing a tipping impact** of (likelihood x point change in state impact) (by 2100) (by 3000) Arctic summer sea-ice High Low 3 4 Greenland ice sheet Medium-High* High 7.5 1 (highest) West Antarctic ice sheet Medium* High 6 2 Atlantic THC Low* Medium-High 2.5 6 ENSO Low* Medium-High 2.5 6 West African monsoon Low High 3 4 Amazon rainforest Medium* Medium 4 3 Boreal forest Low Low-Medium 1.5 8 (lowest) *Likelihoods informed by expert elicitation **Initial judgment of relative impacts is my subjective assessment Impacts depend on human responses hence are more epistemologically contested than assigning likelihoods to events (Stirling 2003 ‘Risk, uncertainty and precaution…’) October 11, 2010
- Prospects for bifurcation early warning Held & Kleinen (2004) Geophysical Research Letters 31: L23207 Lenton et al. (2008) PNAS 105(6): 1786-1793 Generic early warning signals: Slowing down Increasing variability Skewness of responses Flickering between states System being forced past a tipping point October 11, 2010
- Model test of early warning method Held & Kleinen (2004) Geophysical Research Letters 31: L23207 CLIMBER-2 intermediate complexity model Linear increase in CO2 from 280 to 800 ppmv Stochastic perturbation of freshwater forcing
- Fully 3-D dynamical model test Lenton et al. (2009) Phil. Trans. A 367: 871-884 Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Early warning indicator from autocorrelation function Early warning indicator from detrended fluctuation analysis October 11, 2010 GENIE-2 model
- Paleo-data test of early warning method Livina & Lenton (2007) Geophysical Research Letters 34: L03712 Greenland ice-core regional temperature record Early warning indicator from detrended fluctuation analysis Early warning indicator from autocorrelation function October 11, 2010
- Detecting the number of system states Livina, Kwasniok & Lenton (2010) Climate of the Past, 6: 77-82 New method; „potential analysis‟: Assume polynomial potential and random noise Estimate number of states (i.e. order of polynomial) Estimate noise level Derive potential coefficients and hence shape of potential Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4 October 11, 2010
- Changing number of climate states Livina, Kwasniok & Lenton (2010) Climate of the Past, 6: 77-82 Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4
- European monthly temperature anomaly (1659-2004) Livina et al. (in revision) Climate Dynamics Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4 October 11, 2010
- Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (1856-present) Livina et al. (in revision) Climate Dynamics Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4
- Conclusion Tipping elements in the climate system could be triggered this century by anthropogenic forcing The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets probably represent the largest risks Some tipping points can be anticipated in principle, but sufficiently high-resolution, long records are often lacking A change in the number of climate states can be detected, in a noisy climate system that is moving between states Improved understanding is needed to help policy makers “avoid the unmanageable and manage the unavoidable” October 11, 2010
- Find out more http://knowledge.allianz.com/climate_tipping_points/climate_en.html October 11, 2010
- Example of transition (but not bifurcation) Livina, Ditlevsen, Lenton (submitted) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Sigmoid function with red noise, fluctuation exponent 0.7 ACF-propagator (without detrending) is more sensitive to transitions
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I’ve yet to see a “climate change disaster”. I would suppose that the closest thing that qualifies would be the Vikings getting frozen out of Greenland as the MWP ended. Lenton’s study assumes that Earth’s climate will become more chaotic due to AGW, rather than establishing some new equilibrium point.
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So basically anything that changes is evidence of a climate tipping point. Its even worse than we thought.
Hartog van den Berg June 19, 2011 at 7:52 pm
“I am happy to see that Australia is not the home of a coloured ‘tipping point’. Maybe we can still save the rest of the world?”
How big has to be the meteor impact to have a ‘tipping point ‘ in Australia ? iI is a natural event..
(just making fun Hartog) Nederlander of Nederlandse ouders?
why do you? Well the first factor is that standards are not to be expected from British universities, which have become mediocre degree factories, as opposed to the seats of learning that the used to be.
That press release from Exeter University is just a farrago of nonsensical word[play
R. Gates says:
June 19, 2011 at 11:00 pm
“All systems that exhibit spatio-temporal chaos have tipping points. The most recent was the onset of the Younger Dryas period. It came on in the mere blink of an eye and ended just as fast in geological terms.”
Assuming that the existence of tipping points can be gleaned from the paleological record, it would seem that the conjectured tipping points only function in the flip between cold regimes (ice age temperatures) and warm regimes (Holocene temperatures). Where in the paleological record is there evidence of tipping points between a warm regime and a super warm regime?
Looks to me like the good professor has made an entire career on studying non-existent tipping points. I wonder how it feels to have wasted your entire life on this crap.
The thing I would like the AGW crowd to communicate better about is models. They seemed to be referenced as a the authority in many important questions without much explanation of how they work.
I can think of a model I’d like to see. Set starting conditions of the total ocean at 15 C – uniformly distributed. Then using only properties of seawater, ocean arrangement, seafloor topography, radiation, and perhaps using average air temperatures and wind conditions as they are found on earth; demonstrate that the model will produce deep ocean cold temperatures. It shouldn’t be all that hard to do if you simplified the model to a two dimensional cross section. It would be interesting to contrast a Northern Hemisphere model to a Southern Hemisphere one since the thinking seems to be that the cold of the deep ocean primarily comes from currents originating with down welling in the Arctic. Maybe there are already papers on the subject.
I couldn’t get Bing translator to auto-detect Mumbo-Jumbo…
Did anyone define ‘tipping point’? No thought not…
What, exactly, is a ‘climate state’? Anyone…
This study is perfect example of Post-Modernism; a pile of obfuscatory nonsense.
Vince Causey accept of course when they fail to happen they can just claim its the events is merely delayed but still oncoming , think of the way the ‘rapture’ was dealt with and you get the idea. But to be safe its always best to make you doom predictions for events a long time in the future ,so there is little chance you having to claim ‘delay ‘ anytime soon .
Can I ask anyone here what the heck is “Monsoon Chaotic Multistability”?
Here’s the MSM picking up on this:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/green/detail?entry_id=91403
Now we know which “market” the so called “researchers” intended their product to be launched into.
Hey HERE’S a TIPPING POINT you could USE, to determine any upcoming CATACLYSM:
find an INSTRUMENT which was SPECIALLY DESIGNED, to MEASURE the AMOUNT of INFRA-RED in the ATMOSPHERE, and see if it records RISING I.R. as CO2 LEVELS RAGE.
Because WHEN ATMOSPHERIC I.R. is REDUCING as CO2 + whatever fictitious kitchen sink gases are fictitiously claimed to be doing magic fictitious things, are
RAGING UPWARD unCHECKED,
you HAVE a PROBLEM indicating there is A.N.Y. EFFECT A.T. ALL.
Also if you could find an OPTICAL TELESCOPE which RECORDED a RISE in MANDATORY M.O.T.I.O.N. on ATMOSPHERIC GAS, motion being the DEFINITION of H.E.A.T,
then you’d have an effective MICROSCOPE which MULTIPLIES the EFFECTS of ATMOSPHERIC MOTION due to HEAT
showing that AS FICTITIOUSLY CLAIMED G.H. GASES RAGE UPWARD, there is a DISCERNABLE DIFFERENCE in the amount of MANDATORY MOTION in such OPTICAL TELESCOPES’
VIEWING & PHOTOGRAPHY.
You would have ADDITIONAL DAYS the TELESCOPES COULD NOT WORK due to OBJECTIONABLE CLIMB in ATMOSPHERIC DISTORTION
due to WHAT?
the MANDATORY M.O.T.I.O.N. of GASES holding more – what? H.E.A.T.
If you could FIND an INSTRUMENT which was SHOWING RISING I.R. or HEAT SIGNATURES
you could use T.H.A.T. to DETECT your FICTITIOUS TIPPING POINTS.
But SINCE there IS NO SUCH THING as a G.H.G. EFFECT and you can LOOK at the ATMOSPHERE through a MAGNIFYING INFRA-RED TELESCOPE to CHECK on THAT,
I guess you don’t HAVE ANYTHING.
Err
to worry about.
Wow. How many instruments do you have to hold up to that atmosphere before you realize THERE IS NOT ONE DISCERNABLE EFFECT which CORRESPONDS to the MAGIC GASES claimed to BE so.
Different day, same old shyte.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/21/3249755.htm?section=justin
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/20/3248032.htm
Isn’t it remarkable that the biggest AGW scam propaganda outlets are related to the repective Governments.
regards
Billy Liar says:
June 20, 2011 at 2:00 pm
Did anyone define ‘tipping point’? ))
Billy. I can tell you from experience that the tipping point is positively reached when the blood alcohol level is exceeded by the bar stool inclination by several degrees. Therefore it should be a “Hansen” that the climate tipping point is several degrees.
cheers.
and where does the sun / solar come into play?
Did’nt the Professor’s mother ever tell him, if you tell stories like that you’l be sent to bed with no supper boy!
Ric Werme-We have a winner! The points are not really worth anything but you do get my praise for earning them.
The mid US arctic blast I mentioned earlier in the week has really harmed the Chicago area. Hundreds of thousands without power after a storm more fitting of April than June.
Meanwhile here out West, the “great Solstice Heat Wave” is fading rapidly with the onset of yet another East Pacific Trough, filling in from the Bering Sea. A weak summer (on the heels of last year’s exceptionally weak summer) may be in the offing:
AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO BUY OFF ON A RAIN SCENARIO FOR OUR CWA FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE…BUT IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
!!!!
We’re talking cold front rain here, not summer time Southwestern Monsoonal rain … !!!!
The climate is enormously complex, general trends difficult to discern and measurement errors are large. Given that there have been a number of false prophesies of late (Disappearing coral islands, Arctic Sea Ice, Himalayan Glaciers, Mass extinctions etc.) the first step is to isolate the false positives.
Having read the 2008 Lenton et. al PNAS article “Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system” some time ago, I would be surprised if the new article is little more than a public relations tool. Why? The Lenton 2008 sought to broaden the definition of a tipping point FROM
“when the climate system is forced to cross some threshold, triggering a transition to a new state at a rate determined by the climate system itself and faster than the cause”
TO include much slower changes, or long-term changes beyond the political time horizon, and to include features that are extremely controversial and speculative even within the alarmist community (“state-of-the-art models differ as to whether the transition is reversible or irreversible”)
In other words, it can include any possible change in the weather.
See http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2538841/
More problems from that big north central storm. Minot’s going under along with lots of land all around there.
It’s only in the low 60s right now in Sioux Falls. I wonder if there will be frost in the Northern Plains tonight?
Models are further developing possible NorCal rain scenarios for mid next week. Some solutions now depict a closed Low, just west of SF, with a cT tap out of central Mexico. This would be a normal scenario – in mid October!
So … is climatic Fall already knocking on the door?