While the press release says University of Exeter, this slide show by Tim Lenton from the University that brought up ClimateGate, UEA, sees tipping worry in every event.
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/Stepscentre/tim-lenton-early-warning-of-climate-tipping-points
From Eurekalert:
Climate change disasters could be predicted
Climate change disasters, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest or collapse of the Atlantic overturning circulation, could be predicted according to University of Exeter research.
Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change, Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter shows that the ‘tipping points’ that trigger these disasters could be anticipated by looking for changes in climate behaviour.
Climate ‘tipping points’ are small changes that trigger a massive shift in climate systems, with potentially devastating consequences. It is already known that climate change caused by human activity could push several potential hazards past their ‘tipping point’. However, it is often assumed that these ‘tipping points’ are entirely unpredictable.
Professor Lenton argues that a system of forecasting could be developed to enable some forewarning of high-risk tipping points. The approach he outlines involves analysing observational data to look for signs that a climate system is slowing down in its response to short-term natural variability (which we experience as the weather). This characteristic behaviour indicates the climate is becoming unstable, and is a common feature of systems approaching critical thresholds known as ‘bifurcation points’.
Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter said: “Many people assume that tipping points which could be passed as a result of human-induced climate change are essentially unpredictable. Recent research shows that the situation is not as hopeless as it may seem: we have the tools to anticipate thresholds, which means we could give societies valuable time to adapt.
“Although these findings give us hope, we are still a long way from developing rigorous early warning systems for these climate hazards.”
Early warning of climate tipping points by Professor Timothy Lenton (University of Exeter) is published in Nature Climate Change volume 1, issue 3, July 2011 and online on Sunday 19 June at 18.00 BST. Copies available on request.
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Here is the transcript for the slide show above.
Tim Lenton – Early warning of climate tipping points – Presentation Transcript
- Early warning of climate tipping points Tim Lenton School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich With special thanks to Valerie Livina, John Schellnhuber, Frank Kwasniok
- Outline Tipping elements Risk assessment Early warning
- Two types of tipping point Bifurcation
- Two types of tipping point Bifurcation No bifurcation
- Policy relevant forcing range IPCC (2007) = High growth = Mid growth = Low growth
- Tipping elements in the climate system Revised from original in Lenton et al. (2008) PNAS 105(6): 1786-1793 October 11, 2010
- Estimates of proximity Lenton & Schellnhuber (2007) Nature Reports Climate Change Results from literature review and workshop
- Likelihood of tipping Kriegler et al. (2009) PNAS 10.1073/pnas.0809117106 Imprecise probability statements from experts Atlantic formally combined Under 2-4 °C warming: Greenland >16% probability of passing at least one of five tipping points Antarctica Under >4 °C warming: >56% probability of passing at least one of Amazon five tipping points El Niño
- Impacts of tipping Lenton, Footitt & Dlugolecki (2009) http://assets.panda.org/downloads/plugin_tp_final_report.pdf Populations exposed to 1-in-100-yr flood events Allianz / WWF report: Increased sea level rise +$25,158 billion exposed assets in port megacities Indian summer monsoon disruption Amazon dieback and drought Aridification of southwest North America October 11, 2010
- Tipping element risk assessment Tipping element Likelihood of Relative Risk score Risk ranking passing a tipping impact** of (likelihood x point change in state impact) (by 2100) (by 3000) Arctic summer sea-ice High Low 3 4 Greenland ice sheet Medium-High* High 7.5 1 (highest) West Antarctic ice sheet Medium* High 6 2 Atlantic THC Low* Medium-High 2.5 6 ENSO Low* Medium-High 2.5 6 West African monsoon Low High 3 4 Amazon rainforest Medium* Medium 4 3 Boreal forest Low Low-Medium 1.5 8 (lowest) *Likelihoods informed by expert elicitation **Initial judgment of relative impacts is my subjective assessment Impacts depend on human responses hence are more epistemologically contested than assigning likelihoods to events (Stirling 2003 ‘Risk, uncertainty and precaution…’) October 11, 2010
- Prospects for bifurcation early warning Held & Kleinen (2004) Geophysical Research Letters 31: L23207 Lenton et al. (2008) PNAS 105(6): 1786-1793 Generic early warning signals: Slowing down Increasing variability Skewness of responses Flickering between states System being forced past a tipping point October 11, 2010
- Model test of early warning method Held & Kleinen (2004) Geophysical Research Letters 31: L23207 CLIMBER-2 intermediate complexity model Linear increase in CO2 from 280 to 800 ppmv Stochastic perturbation of freshwater forcing
- Fully 3-D dynamical model test Lenton et al. (2009) Phil. Trans. A 367: 871-884 Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Early warning indicator from autocorrelation function Early warning indicator from detrended fluctuation analysis October 11, 2010 GENIE-2 model
- Paleo-data test of early warning method Livina & Lenton (2007) Geophysical Research Letters 34: L03712 Greenland ice-core regional temperature record Early warning indicator from detrended fluctuation analysis Early warning indicator from autocorrelation function October 11, 2010
- Detecting the number of system states Livina, Kwasniok & Lenton (2010) Climate of the Past, 6: 77-82 New method; „potential analysis‟: Assume polynomial potential and random noise Estimate number of states (i.e. order of polynomial) Estimate noise level Derive potential coefficients and hence shape of potential Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4 October 11, 2010
- Changing number of climate states Livina, Kwasniok & Lenton (2010) Climate of the Past, 6: 77-82 Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4
- European monthly temperature anomaly (1659-2004) Livina et al. (in revision) Climate Dynamics Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4 October 11, 2010
- Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (1856-present) Livina et al. (in revision) Climate Dynamics Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4
- Conclusion Tipping elements in the climate system could be triggered this century by anthropogenic forcing The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets probably represent the largest risks Some tipping points can be anticipated in principle, but sufficiently high-resolution, long records are often lacking A change in the number of climate states can be detected, in a noisy climate system that is moving between states Improved understanding is needed to help policy makers “avoid the unmanageable and manage the unavoidable” October 11, 2010
- Find out more http://knowledge.allianz.com/climate_tipping_points/climate_en.html October 11, 2010
- Example of transition (but not bifurcation) Livina, Ditlevsen, Lenton (submitted) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Sigmoid function with red noise, fluctuation exponent 0.7 ACF-propagator (without detrending) is more sensitive to transitions
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I’ve yet to see a “climate change disaster”. I would suppose that the closest thing that qualifies would be the Vikings getting frozen out of Greenland as the MWP ended. Lenton’s study assumes that Earth’s climate will become more chaotic due to AGW, rather than establishing some new equilibrium point.
Chaos theorey is applicable to digital computer models only, not analog real life. It describes the uncertain and contradictory outcomes of compuer models due to the finite precision of initial conditions.
I read this and immediately ordered on of those co2 meters advertised..LOL
“a system of forecasting could be developed to enable some forewarning of high-risk tipping points. The approach he outlines involves analysing observational data to look for signs that a climate system is slowing down in its response to short-term natural variability (which we experience as the weather). ”
Nothing has diabled them from forwarning of tipping points before – now they are going to do it with short term natural variability, which they didn’t believe in pre-climategate.
R. Gates says:
June 19, 2011 at 11:00 pm
All systems that exhibit spatio-temporal chaos have tipping points. The most recent was the onset of the Younger Dryas period. It came on in the mere blink of an eye and ended just as fast in geological terms.
Tornadoes do this every day. Your example is more interpretable as an event that shows the earth has a strong equilibrium tendency, like a pendulum. In several billion years, it seems, we can’t swing things much further off than 10C or so. A fossil record of over 1 B years is pretty good proof that the conditions for life haven’t been breached in all that time – i.e. ocean temps, acidity, etc. etc. This tells me that we haven’t had a real tipping point yet, so how long do we have to wait., It also tells me that what we mean by chaotic is that it is too complex for climate science to figure out adequately. Chaotic and tipping points are okay for explosions, boiling of water, rapids in a stream but even these are bounded by equilibrium conditions. A tipping point to me is one past which things irretrievably rip off in some extreme, unpredictable way, never to come back.
It would seem that there about 20 individuals responsible for this absolute drivel and waste of human resources and money costing billions start with Pachauri, Mann, Hansen, Jones ect….
Actually, preparedness is a good thing and knowing the range of natural climate variation is certainly a gap in our understanding. But here is the essential bifurcation: collecting observational data or modeling it. The former choice is rational standard science; the latter is magical thinking.
Stephen Rasey says: June 19, 2011 at 8:03 pm
to look for signs that a climate system is slowing down in its response to short-term natural variability
Silly me, I would expect the second derivative of any change to become MORE positive near a tipping point.
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Exactly my thoughts too.
This reminds me of an acrimonious exchange that I had with a particularly obnoxious AGE believer in the BBC Greenroom blog, a couple of years ago. He was absolutely convinced that positive feedbacks were desirable in climate systems. Well, positive is good, yeah?
These people are so utterly clueless, you wonder what they could possibly do if they had to get a proper job.
Time for an update from the producers of The Great Global Warming Swindle…..what happened to them? They were so on target with the original programme, we just need them to investigate the money trail
I’m beginning to believe in reincarnation…………..
It has to be the same people making the same predictions for thousands of years……………
World ends at 10:00…
…film at 11:00
I counted 15 times the word “tipping” was used in this post. The real tipping is the borrowed public money going to fund these fraudsters.
This is good news indeed. If the alarmist brigade can claim to identify when a tipping point is reached, they are in effect, making a prediction. This is something that can be borne out or refuted (probably the latter) by actual data.
Looks like they are finding more rope with which to hang themselves.
Climate tipping point, when wind mills break up
http://notrickszone.com/2011/06/20/windmill-tower-snaps-in-half-crashes-down-across-path/#comment-34006
Mr. Schellnuber is one of their advisors. He’s the one who had explained in youtube.com how easy nature makes for us to understand global warming. “There is a direct linear relationship between CO2 and global mean temperature”.
And he predicts the world to “explode”, if all people want to have a decent lfestyle as today’s developed world.
There really is a complete religion built on top of the small AGW theory.
By adding more and more “science” like this one, they hope we won’t see the shabby fundament anymore.
They remind of nothing other than the Uri Geller and his spoon bending trick where we were all supposed to look very carefully and imagine the spoon was bending.
Of course the spoon did eventually bend … but only after it had been rigorously “tested to destruction”.
AGW believers assume that the global temperature will rise by a large amount ,3-6 deg c by the end of the century,they see their task as getting the rest of the world to share their assumption even though we see no evidence that such a large rise in global temperatures is going to occur because of rising co2 level in the atmosphere.The idea of a global average temperature is becoming meaningless because some people want to interpret that metric for us by using their computer models,Global temperatures have in the recent past risen higher and faster than we are seeing today.They believe that all skeptics are supporters of the smoking lobby but if governments believe that smoking is harmful why don’t they ban it instead of taking a large amount of tax from those who smoke,it is not like alcohol because no one can smoke in moderation and be sure of not dying from it,If it was a new product it would not be allowed to be sold.
WHY i dont read NOTHING about NABRO?
http://earthquake-report.com/2011/06/12/unusual-series-of-moderate-volcanic-earthquakes-in-eritrea-and-ethiopia/
Nothing about:
“According to NASA, the volcano spewed ash and large amounts of sulfur dioxide gas—the highest levels ever detected from space, according to preliminary estimates from researchers at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.”
Nothing about SO2:
http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/index_NRT.php?InstruGOME2=1&InstruOMI=2&InstruSCIA=3&InstruIASI=4&InstruAIRS=5&obsVCD=1&obsAAI=0&obsCCF=0&horaireIASI=1&horaireAIRS=1&modeONE=0&modeADD=1&Region=000
High concentrations and alerts:
http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/OMI/OMISO2/Alert/alert.html
Or 240 MT of SO2 (240.000.000 T) in a day!
http://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/pix/daily/0611/loopall2.php?yr=11&mo=06&dy=17&bn=afar
The real tipping point would be the appearance of an atmospheric hot spot at 10km above the tropics, the one that all the models have been predicting but faulty instrumentation in sounding rockets and radiosondes have been unable to detect.
I do still worry about that ozone hole over the Antarctic and all the penguins getting skin cancer from the UV.
That, and polar bears.
There is a marvelous book called “When Prophecy Fails”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails
In short, when prophecies fail, the true Believers double down on them. The AGW folk are a splendid example.
Missing from the candy-hued map of tipping disasters are the supposedly retreating glaciers, particularly the Mt Kilimanjaro and the Himilayan ones. No mention of rising oceans either.
timetochooseagain says:
June 19, 2011 at 8:24 pm
I’m not real good with Twilight Zone episode names (I used to be able to look at Star Trek teasers at the start of a show and come up with the title before the commercial.)
I did see all these, though. With help from Google:
Time Enough at Last: (Burgess Meredith) a nuclear war give a bookworm enough time to read, but then he breaks his glasses.
A Nice Place to Visit – Hell is where you always win and have everything you want.
Nightmare at 20,000 Feet – William Shatner is recovering from a nervous breakdown and sees a gremlin damage an airplane engine while in flight but no one else sees it.
The only “tipping element” on the entire map that could potentially bifurcate is the “Antarctic ozone hole.”
In September of 2002 the ozone hole did, in fact, bifurcate:
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/51992main_hires_ozone_2002_09_24_web.jpe
A tipping point was not reached, catastrophe did not ensue, and the event was subsequently labeled “anomolous.”
ZT says:
June 19, 2011 at 9:27 pm
From a historical perspective, was there a time when British scientists were respectable?
Merlin was wizard for a spell.
Robert, Mooloo, coturnix19, others . . .
Are you looking for something about forest advance and retreat? Here is one such:
http://arctic.synergiesprairies.ca/arctic/index.php/arctic/article/viewFile/2786/2763
by HARVEY NICHOLS
“ABSTRACT: From palynological studies it appears that northernmost dwarf spruces of the tundra and parts of the forest-tundra boundary may be relicts from times of prior warmth, and if klled might not regenerate. This disequilibrium may help explain the partial incongruence of modern climatic limits with the present forest edge. Seedlings established as a result of recent warming should therefore be found within the northernmost woodlands rather than in the southern tundra.”
Has Timbo just moved from UEA to Exeter? Must be on the hunt for funding – probably a pre-condition of his appointment. Not that I’m cynical or anything………….
I guess that is what one would call covering all eventualities…
The Google ad that comes up is asking me if I want to make 42% returns on the world’s next trillion $ market. Invest in Carbon Credits, it screams. From http://www.greeninvestmentservices.com.
Talk about flogging a dead horse, especially at this site. But if it pays Anthony a couple of cents, I’ll go and press their button. The irony of it!
George Kominiak says:
June 19, 2011 at 7:03 pm
Good grief!! Who pays for thus stuff??? (And why???)
As a UK taxpayer I do, Why??? To waste money and scare more money out of Ministers.