While the press release says University of Exeter, this slide show by Tim Lenton from the University that brought up ClimateGate, UEA, sees tipping worry in every event.
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/Stepscentre/tim-lenton-early-warning-of-climate-tipping-points
From Eurekalert:
Climate change disasters could be predicted
Climate change disasters, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest or collapse of the Atlantic overturning circulation, could be predicted according to University of Exeter research.
Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change, Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter shows that the ‘tipping points’ that trigger these disasters could be anticipated by looking for changes in climate behaviour.
Climate ‘tipping points’ are small changes that trigger a massive shift in climate systems, with potentially devastating consequences. It is already known that climate change caused by human activity could push several potential hazards past their ‘tipping point’. However, it is often assumed that these ‘tipping points’ are entirely unpredictable.
Professor Lenton argues that a system of forecasting could be developed to enable some forewarning of high-risk tipping points. The approach he outlines involves analysing observational data to look for signs that a climate system is slowing down in its response to short-term natural variability (which we experience as the weather). This characteristic behaviour indicates the climate is becoming unstable, and is a common feature of systems approaching critical thresholds known as ‘bifurcation points’.
Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter said: “Many people assume that tipping points which could be passed as a result of human-induced climate change are essentially unpredictable. Recent research shows that the situation is not as hopeless as it may seem: we have the tools to anticipate thresholds, which means we could give societies valuable time to adapt.
“Although these findings give us hope, we are still a long way from developing rigorous early warning systems for these climate hazards.”
Early warning of climate tipping points by Professor Timothy Lenton (University of Exeter) is published in Nature Climate Change volume 1, issue 3, July 2011 and online on Sunday 19 June at 18.00 BST. Copies available on request.
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Here is the transcript for the slide show above.
Tim Lenton – Early warning of climate tipping points – Presentation Transcript
- Early warning of climate tipping points Tim Lenton School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich With special thanks to Valerie Livina, John Schellnhuber, Frank Kwasniok
- Outline Tipping elements Risk assessment Early warning
- Two types of tipping point Bifurcation
- Two types of tipping point Bifurcation No bifurcation
- Policy relevant forcing range IPCC (2007) = High growth = Mid growth = Low growth
- Tipping elements in the climate system Revised from original in Lenton et al. (2008) PNAS 105(6): 1786-1793 October 11, 2010
- Estimates of proximity Lenton & Schellnhuber (2007) Nature Reports Climate Change Results from literature review and workshop
- Likelihood of tipping Kriegler et al. (2009) PNAS 10.1073/pnas.0809117106 Imprecise probability statements from experts Atlantic formally combined Under 2-4 °C warming: Greenland >16% probability of passing at least one of five tipping points Antarctica Under >4 °C warming: >56% probability of passing at least one of Amazon five tipping points El Niño
- Impacts of tipping Lenton, Footitt & Dlugolecki (2009) http://assets.panda.org/downloads/plugin_tp_final_report.pdf Populations exposed to 1-in-100-yr flood events Allianz / WWF report: Increased sea level rise +$25,158 billion exposed assets in port megacities Indian summer monsoon disruption Amazon dieback and drought Aridification of southwest North America October 11, 2010
- Tipping element risk assessment Tipping element Likelihood of Relative Risk score Risk ranking passing a tipping impact** of (likelihood x point change in state impact) (by 2100) (by 3000) Arctic summer sea-ice High Low 3 4 Greenland ice sheet Medium-High* High 7.5 1 (highest) West Antarctic ice sheet Medium* High 6 2 Atlantic THC Low* Medium-High 2.5 6 ENSO Low* Medium-High 2.5 6 West African monsoon Low High 3 4 Amazon rainforest Medium* Medium 4 3 Boreal forest Low Low-Medium 1.5 8 (lowest) *Likelihoods informed by expert elicitation **Initial judgment of relative impacts is my subjective assessment Impacts depend on human responses hence are more epistemologically contested than assigning likelihoods to events (Stirling 2003 ‘Risk, uncertainty and precaution…’) October 11, 2010
- Prospects for bifurcation early warning Held & Kleinen (2004) Geophysical Research Letters 31: L23207 Lenton et al. (2008) PNAS 105(6): 1786-1793 Generic early warning signals: Slowing down Increasing variability Skewness of responses Flickering between states System being forced past a tipping point October 11, 2010
- Model test of early warning method Held & Kleinen (2004) Geophysical Research Letters 31: L23207 CLIMBER-2 intermediate complexity model Linear increase in CO2 from 280 to 800 ppmv Stochastic perturbation of freshwater forcing
- Fully 3-D dynamical model test Lenton et al. (2009) Phil. Trans. A 367: 871-884 Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Early warning indicator from autocorrelation function Early warning indicator from detrended fluctuation analysis October 11, 2010 GENIE-2 model
- Paleo-data test of early warning method Livina & Lenton (2007) Geophysical Research Letters 34: L03712 Greenland ice-core regional temperature record Early warning indicator from detrended fluctuation analysis Early warning indicator from autocorrelation function October 11, 2010
- Detecting the number of system states Livina, Kwasniok & Lenton (2010) Climate of the Past, 6: 77-82 New method; „potential analysis‟: Assume polynomial potential and random noise Estimate number of states (i.e. order of polynomial) Estimate noise level Derive potential coefficients and hence shape of potential Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4 October 11, 2010
- Changing number of climate states Livina, Kwasniok & Lenton (2010) Climate of the Past, 6: 77-82 Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4
- European monthly temperature anomaly (1659-2004) Livina et al. (in revision) Climate Dynamics Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4 October 11, 2010
- Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (1856-present) Livina et al. (in revision) Climate Dynamics Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4
- Conclusion Tipping elements in the climate system could be triggered this century by anthropogenic forcing The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets probably represent the largest risks Some tipping points can be anticipated in principle, but sufficiently high-resolution, long records are often lacking A change in the number of climate states can be detected, in a noisy climate system that is moving between states Improved understanding is needed to help policy makers “avoid the unmanageable and manage the unavoidable” October 11, 2010
- Find out more http://knowledge.allianz.com/climate_tipping_points/climate_en.html October 11, 2010
- Example of transition (but not bifurcation) Livina, Ditlevsen, Lenton (submitted) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Sigmoid function with red noise, fluctuation exponent 0.7 ACF-propagator (without detrending) is more sensitive to transitions
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I’ve yet to see a “climate change disaster”. I would suppose that the closest thing that qualifies would be the Vikings getting frozen out of Greenland as the MWP ended. Lenton’s study assumes that Earth’s climate will become more chaotic due to AGW, rather than establishing some new equilibrium point.
Good news is no news. Bad news is good news.
Unless we predict catastrophe none will listen.
I thought a tipping point was a point from which it was impossible to recover from. If it is not then there are tipping points every year.
Exeter University trying for more taxpayer pounds.
Duncan says: June 19, 2011 at 6:54 pm “So… the greening of the Sahara is a tipping point, or an early sign that we’re approaching a tipping point? Yes, this is the bogeyman stalking the world…”
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I agree that the warmists perpetually see threats of global doom where in fact no such threat really exists. This is often because they have no regard to past history.
There are some studies/suggestions to the effect that between about 7,000 BC – 3,000 BC (extending into the golden age of Egypt) East Africa enjoyed a fertile climate (or at any rate a more fertile climate than that prevalent today). These studies/suggestions postulate that during this period the Sahara had significant areas of green savanna of such fertility that it was habited with elephants, giraffe and other grassland/woodland animals.
These studies/suggestions postulate that Lake Turkana drained into the Nile River basin. Lake Chad covered a surface area of some 400,000 square kilometers with a surface level some 30 meters or so higher than the level seen today. There were also some shallower lakes and river systems that existed in the subpluvial era that have since then disappeared entirely, and are detectable today only with the aid of radar and satellite imagery.
If these studies/suggestions are correct, then there was no tipping point brought about whatever was the cause for a green Sahara in the recent historical past.
Let’s read their conclusion….
Tipping elements in the climate system could be triggered this
century by anthropogenic forcing
Notice the word could
Translate= We haven’t a clue
The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets probably
represent the largest risks
Notice the word probably
Translate= It might or might not
Some tipping points can be anticipated in principle, but
sufficiently high-resolution, long records are often lacking
Notice the word some & lacking
Translate= We admit that there’s no data to suggest anything much about anything else
A change in the number of climate states can be detected, in a
noisy climate system that is moving between states
Notice the words can be
Translate= Can be, could be, may be Maybe the sky will fall down, maybe it won’t
Improved understanding is needed to help policy makers
“avoid the unmanageable and manage the unavoidable
Notice the words Improved, understanding, policy makers
Translate=Not necessary because we all know what that means, don’t we?
It looks like the hysterical drama short-list from my perspective.
At least it is frank presentation of AGW – Nothing but panic.
Common Sense says:
June 19, 2011 at 10:41 pm
If recent Denver weather is a ‘tipping point’, bring it on.
This nice wet and cooling weather is a delight for the plants and trees in my gardens. Also, free water. It saves on our water bill.
Could do without the hail we had though.
I think we’re experiencing the same sort of weather we had in the early 70s. I recall a lot of wet and cold back then. We also had predictions of Ice Ages from the MSM.
Its simple approach really ,by calling anything a ‘tipping point ‘ you therefore you can claim any event as proof of AGW becasue anything can be claimed to be a ‘tipping point ‘ . To much rain , to little rain just the same amount, to hot to cold to just the same , there is simple no weather nor climate events that can not be put to service to support the AGW faith in action.
Its like the good old days where good events where signs of gods work and bad ones the signs of the devil at work , for it was clear they could not happen otherwise !
Now normal in science there is the idea of ‘falsification’ that if it can’t be disproved it likes scientific rigor , but this is climate science where the normal rules just don’t apply . So no problems .
ZT says:
June 19, 2011 at 9:27 pm
From a historical perspective, was there a time when British scientists were respectable?
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Ah, c’mon. Appleton, Dirac, Bragg (the younger), to name but a few. Not to mention Faraday, Maxwell. But then they were scientists, not “scientists”.
And we certainly don’t have a monopoly on deranged propagandists.
(I’lll leave out Newton; he was weird, but respectable for his time)
Since we weren’t around to cause it, how the hell did that happen?
Interesting…..
The tipping point slide names a certain John Schellnhuber.
‘John’ is also known more famously as Hans – Joachim Schellnhuber . Direktor of PIK.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Joachim_Schellnhuber
Hans recently intoduced us to his world government master plan and the suspension of Democracy for the greater good.
Those were the days of steady climate. /sarc
The observed data so far does tell us that we are at a ‘tipping point’, but not in the way they think. ;>)
I guess the author omitted one another tipping point – continental drift. I guess we should immediately start planning strategies how to stop it before it’s too late.
Why’s Guam not on their map?
There is a climate tipping point.
17 November 2009
Climategate.
I think it’s all a lot of hot air.
Head for the hills! The climate shift has begun!
This is the online version of the report “Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector” conducted by scientists at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia and Andlug Consulting.
The report is commissioned jointly by Allianz, a leading global financial services provider, and WWF, a leading global environmental NGO.
Tip: “if your sales strategy is predicated on fear and pressure, you’ll be always be running against the clock, because people will abide fear and pressure for only so long.”
Here are some potentially disastrous tipping points. / sarc
Methane rate rise flat
Rate of sea level rise – flattening
Temperature rise – flat
UK snow – back
Forest fires – down
Lake Powell – rising fast
and so on………………….. Yet these suckers now ignore the evidence of their failed predictions and continue to spread scare stories.
Whatever happened to global warming?
The greening of the Sahara may indeed be a sign of the future, as the last time it was a green well watered paradise was the last ice age. It slowly turned to desert during the course of this interglacial, the Egyptian empire and those around them faded as the climate changed. These people should be careful what they wish for, it may come true and it will not be warming. Have these people no knowledge of history or geology or archaeology, do they have any clues at all, I fear not. They seem to have their heads in the clouds,or in a trough, or in the sand or in some other dark place that I would rather not explain.
Do these people in any way shape or form actually do science, that is recognisable as such, and, will benefit mankind, or are they Merlins apprentices without the skills and magic? This self full-filling prophecy of climate doom, pumped up with ever increasing amounts of improbable conjectures, is on a collision course with reality.
Poor old Sol misunderstood and neglected.
NikfromNYC posted a link earlier: “in a news clipping from 1972,..”
Aside from the ice age prediction, there was another fragment bewailing the poor, who are always with us.
plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose,
with one exception, back in ’72 you could get your car painted for just $29.95
We sell you any hubris to put the Green shackles on humanity.
The entire lot belongs behind the steel doors of a closed mental institution.
The dreaded tipping point is the drying up of climate funds for alarmist fudgers!!
A lot of this cr@p depends on the ‘chaotic climate’ idea.
Climate change is not as chaotic as the alarmists make out. It just takes a bit of effort to understand how the system works.
Chaos theory has its place in weather modelling, but there is a danger that chaos gets overused as an excuse for taking no notice of the organising principles which have been discovered both inside and outside the mainstream of climate science.
I sometimes wonder why instead of bemoaning our inability to predict weather better due to ‘chaos’ some of these scientists don’t make a bit more effort to try out the tools in the box which have been developed to help reduce it.
Look for example at this response I got from a mainstream hydrologist on my blog the other day. He hasn’t bothered to respond to my reply:
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/06/12/the-timing-of-el-nino-in-relation-to-the-solar-cycle/#comment-7000
Man I can’t keep track of all these things to be afraid of… and they didn’t even mention the Yellowstone supervolcano or the Cascadia subduction zone or, er, any of those rare but actually historically recorded and regularly occurring disaster events…. Guess I’ll just have to take a few reasonable precautions and live a normal life…
They should look outward–toward the sun; that’s the REAL tipping point. Rather, they look inward at natural phenomena that are responding to the sun’s behavior. Will they ever get it right? No, because they can’t do squat when it comes to dealing with the sun–there’s absolutely no money in it for them.
Oh really! Where is the evidence for “already known”? I call BS on this one. This crap is just an appeal for more funding from their funders in the oil industry, coal industry, insurance industry and gas suppliers.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/about/history/
These people should be stripped of their funding, [snip ~jove, Mod]
I would describe “boreal forest dieback” (dieback???what kind of word is that?) as “temporal forest growback”