Yet, still the data doesn’t support it. As I reported two days ago, the sea level threat just isn’t there. Oh noes! Sea level rising three times faster than expected (again) and we’ve heard it before, right before the 2009 Copenhagen conference. This appears to be nothing more than recycled alarm.
Steve Goddard plotted a telling graph comparing sea level rates:
The image below shows actual sea level rise in blue measured by Envisat, versus the claimed rate of the experts (green) (15 mm /year.)
Even the University of Colorado Sea Level trend only shows 3 mm per year, not 15mm, as would be required to get the sort of sea level rises they are talking about
From Lund university:
Effects of climate change in the Arctic more extensive than expected
A much reduced covering of snow, shorter winter season and thawing tundra. The effects of climate change in the Arctic are already here. And the changes are taking place significantly faster than previously thought. This is what emerges from a new research report on the Arctic, presented in Copenhagen this week. Margareta Johansson, from Lund University, is one of the researchers behind the report.
Together with Terry Callaghan, a researcher at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Margareta is the editor of the two chapters on snow and permafrost.
“The changes we see are dramatic. And they are not coincidental. The trends are unequivocal and deviate from the norm when compared with a longer term perspective”, she says.
The Arctic is one of the parts of the globe that is warming up fastest today. Measurements of air temperature show that the most recent five-year period has been the warmest since 1880, when monitoring began. Other data, from tree rings among other things, show that the summer temperatures over the last decades have been the highest in 2000 years. As a consequence, the snow cover in May and June has decreased by close to 20 per cent. The winter season has also become almost two weeks shorter – in just a few decades. In addition, the temperature in the permafrost has increased by between half a degree and two degrees.
“There is no indication that the permafrost will not continue to thaw”, says Margareta Johansson.
Large quantities of carbon are stored in the permafrost.
“Our data shows that there is significantly more than previously thought. There is approximately double the amount of carbon in the permafrost as there is in the atmosphere today”, says Margareta Johansson.
The carbon comes from organic material which was “deep frozen” in the ground during the last ice age. As long as the ground is frozen, the carbon remains stable. But as the permafrost thaws there is a risk that carbon dioxide and methane, a greenhouse gas more than 20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide, will be released, which could increase global warming.
“But it is also possible that the vegetation which will be able to grow when the ground thaws will absorb the carbon dioxide. We still know very little about this. With the knowledge we have today we cannot say for sure whether the thawing tundra will absorb or produce more greenhouse gases in the future”, says Margareta Johansson.
Effects of this type, so-called feedback effects, are of major significance for how extensive global warming will be in the future. Margareta Johansson and her colleagues present nine different feedback effects in their report. One of the most important right now is the reduction of the Arctic’s albedo. The decrease in the snow- and ice-covered surfaces means that less solar radiation is reflected back out into the atmosphere. It is absorbed instead, with temperatures rising as a result. Thus the Arctic has entered a stage where it is itself reinforcing climate change.
The future does not look brighter. Climate models show that temperatures will rise by a further 3 to 7 degrees. In Canada, the uppermost metres of permafrost will thaw on approximately one fifth of the surface currently covered by permafrost. The equivalent figure for Alaska is 57 per cent. The length of the winter season and the snow coverage in the Arctic will continue to decrease and the glaciers in the area will probably lose between 10 and 30 per cent of their total mass. All this within this century and with grave consequences for the ecosystems, existing infrastructure and human living conditions.
New estimates also show that by 2100, the sea level will have risen by between 0.9 and 1.6 metres, which is approximately twice the increase predicted by the UN’s panel on climate change, IPCC, in its 2007 report. This is largely due to the rapid melting of the Arctic icecap. Between 2003 and 2008, the melting of the Arctic icecap accounted for 40 per cent of the global rise in sea level.
“It is clear that great changes are at hand. It is all happening in the Arctic right now. And what is happening there affects us all”, says Margareta Johansson.
The report “Impacts of climate change on snow, water, ice and permafrost in the Arctic” has been compiled by close to 200 polar researchers. It is the most comprehensive synthesis of knowledge about the Arctic that has been presented in the last six years. The work was organised by the Arctic Council’s working group for environmental monitoring (the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme) and will serve as the basis for the IPCC’s fifth report, which is expected to be ready by 2014.
Besides Margareta Johansson, Torben Christensen from Lund University also took part in the work.
For more information:
Margareta Johansson, Division of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, telephone: 046-2224480, mobile: 070-6842965, email: Margareta.Johansson@nateko.lu.se
Terry Callaghan, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, email: terry_callaghan@btinternet.com
Read more information on the report and The Artic as a messenger for global processes – climate change and pollution conference in Copenhagen where it is being presented today.
I doubt even the 30cm. Have we seen 30cm of global sea level rise? I live on an island (Whidbey) where 30cm would have cause dramatic changes in the coastline, yet no such thing has been apparent over the last century. Whidbey NAS is right down at a couple feet above sea level, and the runways aren’t flooded, they don’t have high sea walls. The Dugualla bay lowland isthmus hasn’t been inundated, looks the same as it did decades ago. I seriously doubt the accuracy of the measurements.
Correction:
I see the quotes I previously cited were from the Lund University press release and not from the report itself. I need to take more time in reading these things, but all of these stories and press releases are merely variations of the same theme, hence I skip over some details. These bed-wetting, hand-wringing stories have become so monotonous (how long has the sky been falling now?), but once you’ve seen the man behind the curtain, the wizard isn’t so scary anymore.
While the warmistas are leading the charge in disinformation and alarmism, it is best we fight back with facts.
And the basic fact is, there is little credible information regarding GMSL(Global Mean Sea Level).
I suggest we remind those that stand behind their assumptions and allegations, that their is no evidence suggesting accelerations in sea level rise, and the data they use to make any such allegations is purely interpretative.
I am appreciative of those that have been reading my posts on sea levels and I appreciate Anthony allowing me to link to those posts.
I have written another article called, “An Introduction Into Global Mean Sea Level, A Fallacy of Alarmism, and Beyond”
I’m basically calling into question the validity of Church et al. (2004), Satellite altimetry to reconstruct tide gauges and my opposition to ‘Alarmists’ announcing and suggesting accelerated sea levels, using any data in regards to GMSL.
Thanks again for your time, and maybe some of you can come up with a better headline than the one I came up with, by leaving a comment here at WUWT, or at my blog.
Thanks in advance.
Enjoy !
whoa.
.876 mm/yr on the envisat chart. at that pulse-quickening pace, we’ll see 1 whole foot of sea level rise in, say, 348 years or so.
enough time to even grow my own trees for my ark, too.
It’s like science has turned into a creepy version of Lindsay Lohan’s latest shocker. It made her a LOT not more credible but she still gets casting calls and her picture on the cover of People. Which means that the people who are hanging on every word, lapping this drivel up, and throwing money at this kind of science are keeping the Lohan scientists working. Find them, vote them out, and this torture stops.
I have spent some time recently reading on warmist sites. The bloggers invariably claim that they have the science and data on their side, as HP does, and that skeptics make it up. Of course, they believe the models are data.
There is very little climate data mentioned in the article being discussed here. Mostly it is models and conjecture. The main data mentioned is arctic temperatures, which they maintain have been rising rapidly. They even have the courage to mention tree rings as a proxy for temperature. There does appear to be something strange going on in the Arctic. The Jones et al. data set has a large temperature increase between about 1910 and 1930. Odd because another far-north observatory shows a steady increase, no big jumps.
Around 1940 to 1945, the Arctic temperature was apparently higher than today. No indication that rising CO2 levels are the cause, so logically something else is going on. Maybe tree rings were used for the older part of the data? Of course, I don’t have the actual data Johannsen used to analyze Arctic trends.
There was a discussion of this some time ago, see http://www.warwickhughes.com/cool/cool13.htm
“Other data, from tree rings among other things, show that the summer temperatures over the last decades have been the highest in 2000 years
I simply do not believe that these people are that stupid. They do think that people in general are, however, and they have no compunction about lying to advance an agenda. People like Margareta Johansson have sold their souls to people like Julia Gillard – a perfect storm of convergent interests and ideologies. These people are not just wrong, they are enemies of humanity.
And it’s interesting to note that so many commenters have taken “Hugh Pepper” to task…. wasted effort. “Hugh” is not as stupid as he sounds nor is he educatable. He’s probably not “Hugh Pepper” either. Ever wonder why his comment is always near the top and there are seldom any followups or responses to our earnest criticisms? Astro-turf? Troll? Enemy of humanity?
““But it is also possible that the vegetation which will be able to grow when the ground thaws will absorb the carbon dioxide. We still know very little about this.” says Margareta J
Not so fast. We already know that when the permafrost thaws, the life there wakes up and becomes a very good carbon sink. So, they can stop pretending that we still have to find out and worry about “what if” it is not a sink. Rumors of huge methane releases are unfounded speculation.
Eric Anderson says: May 4, 2011 at 4:08 pm
…there is no cause for alarm … unless someone has a grounded, rational explanation … for how … (ii) the rise will greatly accelerate in the future.
Hi Eric. From http://amsstationscientist.ametsoc.org/post?id=5129712 a study beginning 1992 and ending 2009.
“The nearly 20-year study reveals that in 2006, a year in which comparable results for mass loss in mountain glaciers and ice caps are available from a separate study conducted using other methods, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets lost a combined mass of 475 gigatonnes a year on average. That’s enough to raise global sea level by an average of 1.3 millimeters (.05 inches) a year… The pace at which the polar ice sheets are losing mass was found to be accelerating rapidly. Each year over the course of the study, the two ice sheets lost a combined average of 36.3 gigatonnes more than they did the year before. ”
The loss of mass from ice-caps is accelerating measurably now. If this were to continue, linear extrapolation from today’s noisy readings will not prove a good predictor. Work out a doubling period and see what would happen.
If you complain about the weather long enough, it will turn around and bite you.
AGW is coming down with a serious case of frostbite.
This is but one illustration from a CSIRO Australia Conference in Cairns Queensland 4-8 April 2011. The slideshow and attributions are at http://greenhouse2011.com/page.aspx?docid=11
An image that our tax$ pay scientists for is reproduced at
http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii14/sherro_2008/Home2100.jpg?t=1304567077
Is this science?
There seems to be trend here, as well as countries like Sweden, where Brady (above) notes:
Who Should Attend
“Scientists, decision–makers, Ph.D. students, administrators, managers, health care officials, indigenous peoples, representatives of industry and non-governmental organizations.”
It can be difficult for those not in the circle to get Proceedings. I’ve even had a Member of Parliament help me to get Proceeding from another such “conference” in Tasmania 2010 – with no success.
There seems to be a global programme of guerilla scientist training camps, paid for with public funds but closed to John Citizen. Do you have any in your countries, readers?
A nearly 20 year study period(actually 1992 to 2009)…Wow, Ammonmite, even PDO-AMO cycles go longer that that…A study period that long on ice formation and melt is very much like “weather, not climate”!
By doing a google of
“sea levels are rising much faster than we thought”
http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&rl…0l0l506l506l5-1
…we find that the levels of articles quoting that “sea levels are rising much faster than we thought” is much worse than we thought!!!
Seas are Rising Faster than Ever. by Fraser Cain on July 8, 2005 … cover is shrinking much faster than we thought, with over half of recent sea level rise …
Seas could rise higher than we thought – University of New South Wales7 Aug 2007 … “The most recent information reveals that sea-levels are rising fifty per cent faster than levels predicted in the 2001 IPCC report. …
Climate Change Report Says We’re Worse Off Than We Thought …19 Jun 2008 … The oceans are warming and the sea levels are rising faster than previously … Climate Change Report Says We’re Worse Off Than We Thought …
NASA Satellites Measure and Monitor Sea Level
“Icecover is shrinking much faster than we thought, with over half ofrecent sea level rise due to the melting of ice from Greenland,West Antarctica’s …
Seas are Rising Faster than Ever. by Fraser Cain on July 8, 2005 … cover is shrinking much faster than we thought, with over half of recent sea level rise …
Climate Change Report Says We’re Worse Off Than We Thought …19 Jun 2008 … The oceans are warming and the sea levels are rising faster than previously … Climate Change Report Says We’re Worse Off Than We Thought …
Faster Rise In Sea Level Predicted From Melting Greenland Ice …31 Aug 2008 … According to the new study, rising sea levels up to a third of an inch per … “We think this is a very low estimate of what the Greenland ice sheet will … Larger Contributor To Sea-Level Rise Than Thought
Sea Levels Rising Faster Than Previously Thought | Humanitarian NewsIn April 2011, we retrieved 27500 articles from 1130 sources. … Sea Levels Rising Faster Than Previously Thought. 3 May, 2011 – 18:30 …
sb350 / Sea Level RiseSea level rise: It’s worse than we thought …. LATEST BAD NEWS REGARDING SEA LEVEL RISE… Oceans Rising Faster Than UN Forecast, Scientists Say (Update2) …
Sea Caves Reveal Rapid Rise in Ancient Ocean Levels: Scientific …12 Feb 2010 … Going back to the topic in the article, this shows that sea levels can rise much faster than anyone thought, and until we get some idea of …
Sea Level Rise this Century Higher than Previously Thought …21 Jul 2007 … We will most likely see larger than previously expected increases in sea … Sea Level Rise this Century Higher than Previously Thought …
Sea levels may rise three times more than first thought – Climate …8 Dec 2009 … “But the data show us clearly – the warmer it gets, the faster the sea level rises. If we want to prevent a galloping sea level rise, …
Sea level rise: It’s worse than we thought – Climate Change: The …5 Jul 2009 … Sea level rise: It’s worse than we thought …. more likely because emissions have been rising faster than the IPCC’s worst-case scenario. …
RealClimate: How much will sea level rise?4 Sep 2008 … We stress that no-one (and we mean no-one) has published an informed ….. Then, this article only addresses sea level rise from Greenland. ….. melting faster than previously thought and could cause sea levels around …
Top of sea warming 50% faster than thought – Telegraph18 Jun 2008 … Sea-level rise is a key consequence of of climate change but the actual … at a rate 50 per cent faster in the last four decades of 20th century than … We show that the rate of ocean warming from 1961 to 2003 is about …
How much will sea levels rise in the 21st Century?26 Jun 2010… sea level has risen at an average of 4 feet/century, though it … Considering the importance of rising sea level to a human … sea level rise roughly 3 times greater than the IPCC predictions. … For the higher emission scenario, which is where we’re currently tracking, sea level rise by 2100 …
The Truth About Rising Seas By John James31 Oct 2008 … We see change happening much faster than we thought,” and went on to warn that … in Gippsland because of threats from rising sea levels. …
Bad news: sea level rise may be worse than we thought : Deltoid27 Feb 2010 … Bad news: sea level rise may be worse than we thought …… any rise in CO2 levels temperatures rose faster between 1860 and 1880 than they …
Seas could rise higher than we thought – University of New South Wales7 Aug 2007 … “The most recent information reveals that sea-levels are rising fifty per cent faster than levels predicted in the 2001 IPCC report. …
etc, etc, etc!!!
Ian Holton says: May 4, 2011 at 9:14 pm
A nearly 20 year study period(actually 1992 to 2009)…Wow, Ammonmite, even PDO-AMO cycles go longer that that…A study period that long on ice formation and melt is very much like “weather, not climate”!
Fair call and hence my use of the word “if”. I don’t know how ice sheets will respond if warming continues, but present behaviour is worth thinking on before deriding suggestions that sea level rise may accelerate from present levels.
“Our data shows that there is significantly more than previously thought. There is approximately double the amount of carbon in the permafrost as there is in the atmosphere today”, says Margareta Johansson.
Could that be because it’s made of Peat?
Son of Mulder, it reminds me of this. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExWfh6sGyso
What has AGW ever done to us?
Sea level rise measured in millimeters and fractions of millimeters. Impressive measurability. When I am out on the sea. I watch for sea level rises in the range of 2 to 10 meters swells. Anything less is just noise. Hint – its never flat calm. 900 millimeters to 1600 millimeters over the next 89 years works out to about 10 to 18 millimeters per year on average. Current measurements indicate a trend much less than that. Where is this Swedish beef ?
‘Don’t confuse me with facts, I havw seen calving glaciers and know it is caused by global warming’
How many times has some film star shouted something like this? Pile on the agony, I believe, I believe.
They should really stick to acting, or perhaps this ‘fear’ is also acting.
Arctic sea ice is ready for entire removal this summer.
And it makes you wonder why those people at University of East Anglia are so desperately concerned about their future funding, future research, future job prospects, pensions etc and so ardently refuse FoI requests.
If they were to believe this (and their own predictions) they must surely have very little future as sizeable chunks of East Anglia are already below sea level….
(The actual University itself is about 10metres above sea level as best I can tell)
Really, Kamp? Got any actual proof to support that? How about in August you toddle back here and show us an ice free Arctic Ocean. We will be here, waiting with bated breath!
“The carbon comes from organic material which was “deep frozen” in the ground during the last ice age. As long as the ground is frozen, the carbon remains stable. But as the permafrost thaws there is a risk that carbon dioxide and methane, a greenhouse gas more than 20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide, will be released, which could increase global warming.”
For folks who are supposedly involved in scientific study of the matter they seem to be incredibly ignorant of what “permafrost” actually means. Almost every area that is classed as permafrost thaws at the surface and down to depths that vary from a couple feet to 20 feet or more every year. What makes it permafrost is the frozen earth that remains below the thawed layer which in the northern parts of Alaska goes to depths of 200-400 meters.
http://tinyurl.com/3vlybpu
The areas on the map described as “continuous” mean that permafrost is continuous over the area not that they are continuously frozen. The “discontinuous” regions are also mostly classified as intermittent meaning that over time they may be permafrost or not.
When the thaw occurs the soil temps near the surface may warm significantly but as the thaw deepens the soils don’t get much warmer than the coldest setting on your refrigerator at the margin. Even if the thaw depth increases it will do so at depths and temperatures which won’t support any massive increase in the biological activity necessary to generate the wholesale release of CO2 and methane that these “scientists” suggest. The mean annual temp in the “continuous” permafrost region is given as -6C to-12C, so even if temps increase by the worst case scenario numbers they use, the chances of the permafrost disappearing are as likely as my getting a winning Powerball jackpot ticket.
“Margareta Johansson, Division of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University”
That would be the same Lund University that hosts research and teaches classes in parapsychology. It is not exactly a first class science institution.
If this is the quality of the science that will go into AR5 you lot will have a field day wrecking their reputations.
Let them make their own coffin,then let them lie in it . That way you will know where the bodies are to be found when the time comes to get your stakes out.
Jeff Alberts says:
May 4, 2011 at 6:48 pm
Just to clairify, if sea level rise is said to be accelerating, and it’s currently at 3mm/year it wouldn’t have risen by 30cm in the last centuary.
Have a look at the paper below and see figure 3a which shows the observed sea level rise over the last hundred odd years. It show a sea level rise of about 17cm in the last centuary with the current yearly rate at 3mm/year.
You should also be able to see that the rate at which sea level is rising based on this data is increasing.
http://academics.eckerd.edu/instructor/hastindw/MS1410-001_FA08/handouts/2008SLRSustain.pdf