Mike Smith of meteorological musings writes:
Brown Gashes on an Otherwise Green Earth
You’ll want to click to enlarge this image.
This from the AQUA earth-monitoring satellite. These tornadoes were so large they left visible brown gashes on the Alabama countryside. To help you find the gashes, storm chaser Aaron Kennedy put yellow lines parallel to the tornado’s tracks. I have added the arrows. The city of Tuscaloosa is between the “a” and my first arrow. The path across Birmingham was largely covered by clouds when the satellite passed over.
Mike also poses an important question.
I’m changing planes at O’Hare at the moment and just saw that the death toll is up to 250 per The Wall Street Journal and 272 per CNN. It is difficult to write this due to the shock that so many were killed when the forecasts and warnings were so good. That dichotomy is the question of the day.
Read his answer here
Man’s socalled destruction of nature is nothing compared to the fury of nature against man. Throughout time nature has waged a war against mankind and nature usually wins.
I will try to do something to help these people in need. Neighbors helping neighbors gets things done.
Unfortunately, meteorologists have done as much as they can do. Thanks to people like the Severe Storms Center in Norman and weatherman Gary England in OKC, the prediction and warning system is about as good as it can practically get.
The problem is in housing, and the solution is reinforced concrete. Survives everything. Tornado, fire, straight wind, quakes, heavy snow, termites.
Balloon housing (current US practice) with a fascia and then wood construction behind it, is subject to severe problems in winds over 150 mph, whether straight line, or rotational. Gluing structural members together improves things significantly, but anything which gives a serious pressure delta between the outside and the inside of the house will cause an effective explosion. I’m ignoring the problems which arise because the wooden structure isn’t properly bolted to the foundation or slab.
Hurricane Ike showed many in Houston that lower winds are survivable, provide proper construction techniques are used. There was a development on Galveston Island that survived the winds and the water. It was built way above current standards.
Re-bar concrete is about the only repeatable, reliable, construction which can survive a tornado. The windows are another matter, even roll shutters aren’t effective there.
1884 – 500 Killed By A Southern Tornado – 5000 Houses Destroyed
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/04/29/1884-500-killed-by-a-southern-tornado-5000-houses-destroyed/#comments
Consider what the population density was almost 150 years ago……………
Above ground reinforced concrete won’t survive an F-5 and will be severely damaged by an F-4. An F-5 won’t even leave plumbing sticking up from the slab a house was sitting on and they peel up asphalt roads leaving just bare dirt behind and actually remove plants and soil up to 18 inches deep. I was in an outbreak which included one F-4 and one F-5 in 1997. I was about 50 miles from the F-5 and 20 miles from the F-4 and within a few miles of some lesser ones. See here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Central_Texas_tornado_outbreak
The real dichotomy is why we seem so willing to spend gazillions of dollars to ward off some uncertain climate future, but not to heed clear warnings of imminent and actual threats.
The NY Times has a particularly unfortunate article about these tornadoes today. My comments, just posted, are here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/04/leave-it-to-ny-times-to-write.html
Joe Bastardi had predicted storms across the South last week and said this was the end of winter patterns and the change to summer and hopefully the end of most dangerous storms. He also said Wednesday would be the end date. He seems to be on the mark with his predictions often.
Having seen some of the videos and photos, I’m glad we don’t get these here in the UK and my thoughts are with the people affected. As for Mike’s answers, this one is a growing technology risk
This affects a lot of emergency warning systems with a combination of more vulnerable comms and social changes. A shift from old fashioned line powered phones to VoIP can make the problem worse, if those rely on domestic power and don’t have batteries or UPS. In the good’ol days you could make every phone off an exchange ring and play a warning, now that’s much harder. You can try doing it with mobiles to everyone in a cell coverage area, assuming the cell mast is intact, powered and still connected. You could transmit to radio or TV, assuming they have power and assuming people watch or listen. If they’re online, they may not get the warning.
Assuming they are warned, then what? Do tornado prone areas in the US have community shelters people can go to?
Some news about the destruction in Smithville, MS. About 5 miles from my house. http://www.cdispatch.com/news/article.asp?aid=11064 . It even broke tombstones in the cemetery!
“Smithville was in ruins. Pieces of tin were wrapped high around the legs of a blue water tower. The Piggly Wiggly grocery store was gutted, with wires and insulation dangling from the ceiling. In one part of town, not a structure was left standing as far as the eye could see. The police station, the post office, city hall and an industrial park with several furniture manufacturing facilities were among the dozens of structures ripped apart. Neighborhoods resembled the Mississippi coast after Hurricane Katrina.
White said a group of residents from a nearby trailer park knocked on the Smithville Baptist Church door just before the storm hit, asking for shelter. They went to a sturdy section of the red brick church where they hung onto one another and anything they could grab “like a mass of humanity” as the building disintegrated, he said.
The red Jeep Wrangler that some of mobile home residents drove to the church was left on its side inside the church office. The second story was gone. Walls were collapsed. Entire sections of the church were flattened, but the choir robes remained in place.“
The problem is in housing, and the solution is reinforced concrete. Survives everything. Tornado, fire, straight wind, quakes, heavy snow, termites.
As others have written reinforced concrete will not survive an F-5. I have personally seen where the very asphalt on the road was ripped up and there are pictures from some of my friends on facebook of reinforced concrete structures destroyed in Alabama. (this is my home town area).
What we have seen throughout our lives in Alabama is that the older home constructions survive the winds much better than modern ones. The older homes were built with 4×4’s, 2×4’s and 1×6′ wood planks rather than the particle board construction of modern homes. Particle board and its variants have nearly zero structural strength compared to a house built with 1×6’s but are considerably more expensive. I have personally reviewed where three homes were side by side and two modern homes destroyed while the home in the middle, built in 1930 survived with the windows blown out.
The old people in Alabama taught us that when a tornado is bearing down, open all of your windows to assist in pressure equalization. That is very good advice that I have seen no one in the modern age give.
As for the global warming aspect, bah humbug, this kind of thing happened all the time during the cooling interlude in the 60’s and early 70’s. I was personally involved as a boy scout when the city of Jasper Alabama was almost wiped off the map in the early 70’s and we rescued the books from the Library there that had been destroyed in the tornado. That storm lifted a four story reinforced county courthouse off of its foundations!!!!
Another comment after looking at the tornado tracks.
The tornado that hit Tuscaloosa left the ground just a few miles from my home town of Graysville Alabama. I have received several reports from friends as well as their pictures on facebook of detritus from the storm landing in our home town. This was everything from checks from local businesses, receipts, and pieces of homes, very small pieces of homes, all from Tuscaloosa. Tuscaloosa is roughly 60 miles as the tornado flies from Graysville.
“Bill Junga says:
April 29, 2011 at 4:32 am
Man’s socalled destruction of nature is nothing compared to the fury of nature against man. Throughout time nature has waged a war against mankind and nature usually wins.
I will try to do something to help these people in need. Neighbors helping neighbors gets things done.”
______________
Bill,
I’m guessing you read the Times article about these twisters? Perhaps you’ve osmosed the style of hyperbole they engaged in. IMO nature does not have fury, I understand that we puny humans have a tendancy to project our psyche on everything we come in contact with, and we are not at ‘war’. Our destructions of nature are simply bad housekeeping and self-destructive stupidity (and many times we just don’t/didn’t know any better at the time).
The lives and property lost is certainly a tragedy but the fact of the matter is that nature did what nature has always done, and we couldn’t get out of the way fast enough. No need to invoke a sense of malevolance for an act of nature. In other words: we be small and nature be big.
Kinda puts a little perspective of scale for those that insist man is big enough to critically harm this planet. Personally I think the worst we could do is drive ourselves to extinction. Engaging in some hyperbole of my own: the planet would then clear it’s throat, pass some gas (Co2?) and keep on rolling.
Your closing statement I whole heartedly agree with and as they might say in Oz, “Good on ya mate”
I do not think that Nature ‘Has It In’ for man. Nature does what it wants with man in the way. We must live with a dynamic planet.
Well, perhaps total destruction (as in the Jarrel, Tx tornado in 1997 where structures were swept completely off their foundations and pavement was removed from the road surface) of the shelters ppl sought shelter in is one likely possibility …
A quick survey of the damage aerially (visual helicopter overflight) by abc3340 (TV E.N.G. crew):
Tuscaloosa Tornado Damage Aerials Part 1
Tuscaloosa Tornado Damage Aerials Part 2
B’ham Metro Tornado Damage Aerials Part 1
Condolences and prayers to those caught up in this fury by mother nature.
Ref: Jarrel, Tx 27 May 1997 tornado, NWS material: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/coolimg/jarrell/index.html
>>Polistra
>>The problem is in housing, and the solution is reinforced concrete
Indeed. I have always been amazed that most Americans live in plywood and plaster-board shacks – and this is supposed to be the richest country in the world.
In Britain we use a brick exterior wall with a lightweight concrete block inner wall, giving fairly stout houses with good insulation.
In Alpine and many Nordic regions, they seem to use a huge terracotta-like brick that has many holes drilled in it, for insulation. I thought these looked flimsy until I handled one, and then saw what a tough construction they made. Quicker to construct too, than the UK’s small bricks, as you only need one wall instead of the UK’s double wall with internal cavity.
In Israel they often use concrete, for speed and cost. Put up some shuttering, insert a pre-formed polystyrene core in the middle (for insulation and strength), and pour in the concrete. Job done in a few hours. Quick and strong, despite there not being much in the way of re-bar reinforcement in it, from what I saw.
In short, the US has some of the worst housing I have ever seen, and so it is not surprising that many houses are destroyed and many people are killed by the tsunami of flying debris.
Why do the US authorities not demand higher standards of housing? (Didn’t see much double glazing there either.) Even a simple cable tie-down, going from ground to roof, would stop the roof lifting (which destroys the structural integrity of the house and allows the walls to collapse).
.
>>Jim
>>Pictures of destruction.
With all due respect to the tragedy that has happened – but just because the wind has blown a few trees down does not mean that towns and cities should be destroyed too.
This (below) was the 1987 hurricane in southern England, when some 15 million trees were felled in a few hours one October night. Note, however, that the farm and manor house in these images are untouched. You cannot blame nature for a disaster, if you don’t take adequate precautions.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/kent/content/images/2007/09/11/generic_storm_1987_howarth_470x355.jpg
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2008/03/10/emmetts276.jpg
.
Who needs war . . . when we have “mother nature”?
There’s a term for that: Over Engineering (specifically it is costly with minimal returns considering the performance to cost ratio). Cheaper to carry insurance for an event that will never affect *most* of us (and I am in the southern end of Tornado Alley)
BTW, cinder block walls were mowed down in this event too, so, it is doubtful your construction method would have withstood the tornadic winds either.
MUCH cheaper to have constructed an interior reinforced ‘safe’ room, as has been the practice for some choosing this safety route in Oklahoma.
Please see this page for an example of a safe room which did withstand a severe tornado:
http://www.stormsaferoom.com/
.
Ralph How many tornados have struck the UK? This is from wikapedia but to compare the “hurricane of 1987 with an f-5 tornado is laughable. A hurricane has 74 mile an hour sustained winds, so your english farm house didnt even come close to withstanding the conditions that existed in alabama .
In south-east England, where the greatest damage occurred, gusts of 70 knots or more were recorded continually for three or four consecutive hours.
wsbriggs @ur momisugly 5:40 am
“. . . a serious pressure delta between the outside and the inside of the house will cause an effective explosion . . . ”
A strong tornado will lift objects and carry them forward rapidly. The air begins to become dangerous with grit and small items at about 80 to 100 mph; a speed at which you will not be able to stand and walk. Items such as trash cans and lawn furniture are simple items easily lifted and sufficiently heavy to damage a house and along with the wind tear things apart. Buildings torn apart by the storm provide additional pieces to continue the process of destruction. There is no need, nor justification, to blame the damage on pressure differences between the inside and the outside of buildings.
Jim says:
April 29, 2011 at 6:59 am
=============================================================
Jim, thanks for posting the aerial video. I had to stop watching after about 5 minutes – the destruction was too terrible. We can be thankful more people were not killed. In fact my question is not: given our warning system why were so many killed? But rather, how many would have been killed without the warning system we have? Of course, one death is too many from a natural disaster, especially if it’s your family or friends. But still, only 300 dead after distruction of such magnitude! It is appropriate to ask if we could have done more to save lives. but at the same time we should count our blessings.
From the times article:
“If scientists cannot be sure — or trusted, as doubters of climate change might say — then where should an ordinary person on the ground turn for solace or strength in the raging maw of a storm?”
Seems to me if you listened to a skeptic such as Joe Bastardi, one would have been prepared as best possible.
The ones who truly can’t be trusted are the Times reporters
Here is a short informative site with photos of damage from “light” to “incredible.”
http://tornadostormshelters.com/Facts.htm
Jim says:@ur momisugly April 29, 2011 at 7:48 am
The “yard bunker” looks like a darn fine life insurance policy.