Monster earthquake off of Japanese coast: 8.9, Tsunami strikes, massive damage, thousands of deaths likely

/ March 10, 2011

Tsunami warnings for US west coast, Hawaii, Alaska - click for official NOAA map

UPDATE:  00:00 PST 3/13/11 Japanese Met Agency has upgraded the magnitude of the quake to 9.0 — up from 8.8, their previous estimate.

UPDATE: 14:20 PST 3/11/11 Additional graphs and data added to end of post h/t Eco Tretas

UPDATE: 4:05 am PST Tsunami Warning continues for much of the US Pacific Coast and British Columbia.

UPDATE: Compared to quakes since 1900, this appears to be the sixth largest on record, see table added below from USGS data.

Tsunami Warning for the entire Pacific basin coastline including California, impact at 7:42 -8:15 AM local time e.g. San Francisco.

UPDATE:  One of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded.  Hawaii under Tsunami Warning. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Updates / Warning Website Link.  Aftershocks continuing.  Tsunami Watch issued for California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, Canada…

UPDATE: Here’s a screencap from live streaming from Japan via news helicopter showing the Tsunami as it strike s the north coast:

UPDATE: NHK TV in Japan reports Tsunami hit. Massive damage, reports below.

8.9 quake at Friday, March 11, 2011 at 05:46:00 UTC.  Preliminary estimate was 7.9 and was upgraded to 8.8, now 8.9. Current details from USGS.  Tsunami warning issued.

We’ll have more on this as it develops.

If you know of webcams in the area in Japan, leave a comment.

(AP) – JAPAN’S METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY NOW WARNS THAT A TSUNAMI AS HIGH AS 20 FEET (6 METERS) COULD STRIKE THE COAST NEAR MIYAGI PREFECTURE, CLOSEST TO THE EPICENTER. 

WEHW40 PHEB 110557
TSUHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-110757-
/O.NEW.PHEB.TS.A.0001.110311T0557Z-000000T0000Z/
BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER   1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
756 PM HST THU MAR 10 2011
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WATCH
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT
0756 PM HST.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
   ORIGIN TIME - 0746 PM HST 10 MAR 2011
   COORDINATES - 38.0 NORTH  142.9 EAST
   LOCATION    - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU  JAPAN
   MAGNITUDE   - 7.9  MOMENT
EVALUATION
 BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY
 THIS EARTHQUAKE THAT COULD BE DESTRUCTIVE ON COASTAL AREAS EVEN
 FAR FROM THE EPICENTER. AN INVESTIGATION IS UNDERWAY TO DETERMINE
 IF THERE IS A TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.
 IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THE ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF
 THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
                     0259 AM HST FRI 11 MAR 2011
MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

From Fox News :

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii said a tsunami warning was in effect for Japan, Russia, Marcus Island and the Northern Marianas. A tsunami watch has been issued for Guam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and U.S. state of Hawaii.

The quake struck at 2:46 p.m. at a depth of 10 kilometers, about 80 miles (125 kilometers) off the eastern coast, the meteorological agency said. The area is 240 miles (380 kilometers) northeast of Tokyo.

In downtown Tokyo, large buildings shook violently and workers poured into the street for safety. TV footage showed a large building on fire and bellowing smoke in the Odaiba district of Tokyo.

From CBS News:

Japanese television showed video of serious damage caused by a tsunami along the nation’s northern coast. Public broadcaster NHK showed cars, trucks, houses and buildings being swept away by the tsunami in Onahama city, Fukushima prefecture.

A tsunami warning was in effect for Japan, Russia, Marcus Island and the Northern Marianas. A tsunami watch has been issued for Guam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and U.S. state of Hawaii.

There were reports that evacuations were underway along the Russian coast.

===================================================================

Rank        Location Date Magnitude2
1. Chile May 22, 1960 9.5
2. Prince William Sound, Alaska March 28, 19643 9.2
3. Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands March 9, 1957 9.1
4. Kamchatka Nov. 4, 1952 9.0
5. Off western coast of Sumatra, Indonesia Dec. 26, 2004 9.0
6. Off the coast of Ecuador Jan. 31, 1906 8.8
7. Offshore Maule, Chile Feb. 27, 2010 8.8
8. Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands Feb. 4, 1965 8.7
9. Northern Sumatra, Indonesia March 28, 2005 8.7
10. India-China border Aug. 15, 1950 8.6
1. In terms of magnitude.
2. Moment magnitude.
3. March 28, 03:36:14 UT (March 27, 5:36 P.M. local time)
Source: National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey.
[Updated  Data Graphs added 14:20 PST 3/11/11]
Hawaii
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346 thoughts on “Monster earthquake off of Japanese coast: 8.9, Tsunami strikes, massive damage, thousands of deaths likely”

  1. Best wishes to our friends in the Sendai bay region. As tsunamis go it is the perfect storm configuration.

  4. Tsunami advisory web site at the Japan Meteorological Agency:
    http://www.jma.go.jp/en/tsunami/

    Tsunami Warning/Advisory
    Issued at 14:49 JST 11 Mar 2011
    ******************Headline******************
    Major Tsunami and Tsunami have been issued.
    PACIFIC COAST OF TOHOKU
    CENTRAL PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
    IBARAKI PREF.
    KUJUKURI AND SOTOBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
    IZU ISLANDS
    Evacuate from the seashore immediately to the safe places near the above coasts.
    Tsunami attentions are in effect at some of the other coasts now.

  5. Ryan. Can you tell us what time zone you are in?

    Pacific — both Anthony and I live in california

  6. (note that the worse earthquake ever recorded was 9.6 in chile, 1960, and #2 was a 9.2 in Anchorage Alaska in 1964. # 3 Sumatra in 2004 was a 9.1.)
    So 7.9 is significant and its epicenter is underwater.
    Anyone you love in Hawaii tonight?
    BULLETIN
    TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
    NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
    756 PM HST THU MAR 10 2011
    TO – CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
    SUBJECT – TSUNAMI WATCH
    A TSUNAMI WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT
    0756 PM HST.
    AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
    ORIGIN TIME – 0746 PM HST 10 MAR 2011
    COORDINATES – 38.0 NORTH 142.9 EAST
    LOCATION – NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
    MAGNITUDE – 7.9 MOMENT
    EVALUATION
    BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY
    THIS EARTHQUAKE THAT COULD BE DESTRUCTIVE ON COASTAL AREAS EVEN
    FAR FROM THE EPICENTER. AN INVESTIGATION IS UNDERWAY TO DETERMINE
    IF THERE IS A TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.
    IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THE ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF
    THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
    0259 AM HST FRI 11 MAR 2011
    MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
    http://www.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php…1.03.11.055747
    http://www.weather.gov/ptwc/?region=…1.03.11.055747

  7. Report from the SMH 6 minutes ago…….
    Japan tsunami warning follows 7.9 earthquake
    March 11, 2011 – 5:34PM

    Japan has issued its top tsunami warning in response to a major offshore earthquake measuring 7.9, which strongly swayed buildings 400 kilometres away in Tokyo and sent people fleeing onto the streets.

    The meteorological agency issued its top-level evacuation alerts for the entire Japanese coast, Russia and the Mariana Islands, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre said.

    It warned of a tsunami of up to six metres. Smaller tsunamis of up to 50cm reached some coastal communities, the agency said.
    Advertisement: Story continues below

    The quake struck about 382km northeast of Tokyo, offshore, the US Geological Survey reported.

    Smoke could be seen rising from a building in Tokyo port.

    Shinkansen bullet trains stopped when the quake struck.

    Japan’s meteorological agency said the quake struck at 2.46pm (4.46pm AEDST) local time at a depth of 10km, 125km off the eastern coast.

    Several quakes had hit the same region in recent days, including a 7.3 magnitude one on Wednesday.

    The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre said there was no tsunami threat to Australia.

    Hawaii is on Tsunami alert.

  8. Oh dear God.

    Massive and deadly.

    We can but wait and see.

    And we are told mankind can control the climate. Dream on.

    Kindest Regards

  9. Why wait several people have been predicting it coming for months now. General increased tectonic and quake activity on the Pacific Rim, clear down to New Zealand.

  12. The first reports on the USGS site were of a 7.9 quake. That would have been bad enough. 8.8 is a monster. It reminds me of the Indian Ocean quake off Sumatra in 2004 – it kept getting revised upwards over first few hours. Local time of the quake was 14:45hrs.

  13. There is no doubt in my mind now that the tectonic activity eruptions volcanoes in last 2-3 years due to solar minimum activity

  14. Pete H says:
    March 10, 2011 at 10:29 pm
    Wait for the “Moon at its Perigee” disaster comments in the MSN!

    _____________________________________________________________

    Not to mention Jupiter……

    Let’s all hope the tsunami doesn’t manifest, and everybody stays safe.

  15. Watching CNBC World with some pretty good coverage.
    Wars, rumors of wars, earthquakes in diverse places, monetary system about to collapse. Sounds like a story I once read.

  16. Yes, I’d seen those quakes on the USGS emails I get and wondered about if they were foreshocks.

    Notes:

    The 2004 Sumatran 9.2 quake did NOT have foreshocks and was initially reported as an 8.5.

    The 1923 Yokohama-Tokyo quake – the Great Kanto Quake -was a 7.9 and was the worst of the 20th century in terms of damage (IMHO).

    Expect plenty of aftershocks in the 5+ range.

    With a deep ocean trench only 60 miles east, some slippage could certainly have occurred, or be about to occur. This would be a serious tsunami risk for the entire northern Pacific, especially. Hopefully that doesn’t happen.

  20. On shore Mag 6.8 only 67ks away from Tokyo. Quake is under a built up area.
    depth is 30km.
    Expect some damage here.
    Tsunamis can travel across the Pacific to the eastern coast of the U.S.

  22. Catastrophic tsunami ongoing in Sendai/Miyagi area. Streaming video at jibtv.com – awesome and horrific.

  28. I live in the dead center of the island of Oahu, so while I’m safe from the waves here (about 700 feet above sea level), depending on the level of damage we could lose power, utilities and communications. Last time, we were lucky. I’ve got a bad feeling about this one though.

  29. Even in Tokyo at 4:50 pm local time now, almost all the public transport lines are halted.
    Damages including several fires appear to have happened.
    Report of casualty is still limited to one person, but may be increasing.
    How can I get home this evening?…….

  30. I was sitting in my apartment here in Tokyo when it happened. It started out small and became gradually larger to the point where I decided to drop everything and run outside. Lots of buildings were swaying and people were screaming. Very scary…. the 7-11 had broken booze bottles littering the floor and it smelled like a mixed cocktail from hell.

    The aftershocks have been non-stop and keep coming. There is one happening as I type this. It feels like one of those old “magic fingers” bed.

  33. I just tried for 10 minutes to phone our offices in Tokyo and Fukushima area on the coast. I cannot get through to them.

    Will keep trying and let you know what I find.

    I am neart the northern coast of Taiwan, so will look for news on Taiwan TV of potential Tsunami here.

    Best of wishes to all my dear friends in Japan, especially those at the coastal area of Fukushima prefecture.

    John

  36. Refinery fires. One airport shown totally under water with people safe on the roof. One sequence shows a wave coming in and with houses, cars trucks etc being swept inlane. More after shows being reported as I watch on BBC

  37. I hope all people around the pacific rim can get away from the coast.

    There are reports of waves 10 metres high.

    All the best to anyone reading this blog who will be effected in the next 24 hours, we’ll keep you in are prayers :(

    As I’m typing sirens are going off in hawaii :(

  39. Tsunami warnings issued for Chile, Mexico, Australia and New Zealand.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if one is issued for US [West] coast shortly.

    Damage is massive. Reports of Tsunamis up to 7.3 metres on land.

  40. tokyoboy says:
    March 10, 2011 at 11:51 pm

    Even in Tokyo at 4:50 pm local time now, almost all the public transport lines are halted.

    Damages including several fires appear to have happened.
    Report of casualty is still limited to one person, but may be increasing.
    How can I get home this evening?…….

    – – – – – –

    tokyoboy,

    Hope all is well with you and your family and friends.

    Are the local landline phones and cellphones working in Tokyo area? I have not been able to reach Fukushima Prefecture nor Tokyo from where I am in Taiwan.

    Best Wishes,

    John

  41. Simply mind boggling helicopter shots of these waves, and how they pushed inshore. When carrying loads of debris it looked like lava, and sometimes there were burning buidlings being carried on top of it. Totally surreal. Horrendous destruction of obviously meticulously kept farms and greenhouses and lives. Real tragedy for the people there. And who knows what else has happened, or will happen.

    Anyone know what time this buoy system will know if there are serious waves headed to Hawaii or the West Coast?

  46. John Whitman says: March 11, 2011 at 12:03 am
    [……] Are the local landline phones and cellphones working in Tokyo area?[….]

    Until about 30 minutes ago both landline and cell phones were not working and I was unable to call my wife;
    It’s OK now at least in the Metropolitan area where I am.

  47. R John says:
    March 11, 2011 at 12:07 am

    Not sure if it is related, but my internet connection just flaked out for about 5 minutes.

    —————————————————————————————-
    That’s funny, mine did too,

  48. One of the most noticeable things from the helicopter videos, is the amount of sea water caught behind sea walls that were way to short, to stop the tsunami but did a real good job of preventing the sea water return to the Pacific, leaving a set depth of flooding equal to the height of the sea walls.

  49. Aftershocks, strong and weak, still attack the Tokyo area, and I feel ike seasickness at my desk.

  50. The tsunamis look even worse than the 2004 ones from those vids :( This sucks beyond description, hope casualty rates will not go into tens or hundreds of thousands.

    Sad sad day.

  51. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
    March 11, 2011 at 12:14 am
    R John says:
    March 11, 2011 at 12:07 am

    Not sure if it is related, but my internet connection just flaked out for about 5 minutes.

    —————————————————————————————-
    That’s funny, mine did too,

    I’m on an oil rig offshore Indonesia. Our satellite internet connnection has been coming and going since the exact moment the quake hit.

  53. Byz says:
    March 10, 2011 at 11:59 pm

    I hope all people around the pacific rim can get away from the coast.

    There are reports of waves 10 metres high.

    ——————————————————————

    preliminary report is it was 33 feet high

  56. I hope this is the last big quake.

    My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the effected areas.

  59. From a book I read some 40 years ago, it seems that earthquakes are clustered around solar minima, maybe some link between now increasing solar activity and geomagnetic events, which may influence tectonic plate movements?

  60. Terrible. It wasn’t even on the news when I got up this morning, then wham. I’m following the aftershocks with xearth, and note that quite a few of those have been over 6.0 – bad enough in their own right. Best of luck to eneryone there.

    > Pete H says:
    > March 10, 2011 at 10:29 pm
    > Wait for the “Moon at its Perigee” disaster comments in the MSN!
    Hold your horses, Pete – perigee is next weekend … wonder what’s lined up for then.

  62. Just been watching the videos, seeing the cars on the road with the wave just relentless approaching felt to me just like watching 911. You could see the massive devastation, but …

  64. Jimmy Haigh said on March 11, 2011 at 12:20 am

    I’m on an oil rig offshore Indonesia. Our satellite internet connnection has been coming and going since the exact moment the quake hit.

    Do you have found an explanation for this? Is the satellite antenna signal itself fading? Or is it simply a traffic spike jamming the line somewhere else?

  65. The trains are a real mess. Nothing is running. People are flooding into the streets because the sidewalks are full of commuters trying to walk home. Total chaos. I was supposed to go into the office for a meeting this evening but my manager emailed me to say not to come in and that he’s going to head home. He said he has a 3.5 hour walk ahead of him!

    I noticed that during the quake many of the big, modern, ‘eco-friendly’ buildings were swaying the most violently. Maybe they dissipate seismic energy more efficiently.

  66. I read somewhere in a posting on a UK based site someone predicted earthquakes this weekend because the moon was so close.

    I’ll try and dig it out

  67. Terrible to watch, I hope that people manage to get awat, although it looks like it could end up with tens of thousands dead. A sad day.

  68. Hugo M says:
    March 11, 2011 at 1:12 am
    Jimmy Haigh said on March 11, 2011 at 12:20 am

    I’m on an oil rig offshore Indonesia. Our satellite internet connnection has been coming and going since the exact moment the quake hit.

    Do you have found an explanation for this? Is the satellite antenna signal itself fading? Or is it simply a traffic spike jamming the line somewhere else?
    _______________________________________________
    I can’t think of one. I contacted the IT guy in town shortly after we started losing the signal. I’ll get in touch with him later and see what the cause was.

    I’m pretty sure about the timing as a mate of mine is in Kuala Lumpur and he sent me a picture he had taken of him with his hands on the European Champions League trophy which is on exhibition there. He sent the e-mail at 14:52, , about 5 minutes after the quake. I remember the internet had been down for about 10 minutes when it came back on again at about 14:55. Interesting…

    All out comms have been back on for about an hour now – local time here is now 18:26 – same as Japan.

  70. I’m just waiting for them to say it’s because the ice melted and it tipped the plate again, they started that last time after Iceland erupted last year !

  71. Lynn Clark says: March 11, 2011 at 1:01 am

    Les Francis: Which coast?

    At this stage Oregon and Alaska

  73. Damn, that’s not good. The Ring of Fire seems to be waking up, and with global cooling already setting in….

    Best wishes to the people of Japan, and everywhere that the tsunamis hit.

  74. Let’s pray that as little life is lost as possible, & that the Japanese authorities were on the ball with this one, which I expect they were! Awesome pictures.

    Now, just how are we going to regulate nature’s temperatures again?

  75. It is disasters such as this that scientists should be looking at to increase warning time of earthquakes and mitigation of damage and threat to life not some invented climate problem. This has put all climate alarmism where it should be, in the bin.
    I wish everyone in Japan, and the Pacific rim and islands, the very best of luck.

  76. The Tsunami on the northern tip of Taiwan appear to have been less that~1 meter, but communication on the TV networks suggest addition Tsunami may occur from the 6.0 aftershocks.

    John

  77. I was working for Honda in Swindon, England, when the Kobe quake struck in 1995. But this, this is just devastating!

  78. The uncontrollable power of nature. Ahuge amount of energy has been released and it sure can be devastating. My thoughts, prayers and best wishes go out to all those people in and around the area.

  82. From here in Tokyo I have seen nothing in the Japanese media today suggesting that Kurihara, a town clearly well inland, has been destroyed. I have been to Sendai a number of times and cannot imagine that a city clearly well above sea level and well to the west of Sendai would be destroyed by the tsunami. Such reports are nonsense.

  83. Just watching the pictures and it’s like you are watching a disater movie. In reality your are except this one is real. Aftershocks must be a worry now in Japan, as for the rest of the Pacific it will be a few hours till the rising water levels hit many places.

    It puts a few millimeters per decade of sea level rises into context, the Pacific is rimmed by active tectonic plates, this will happen again and again.

    Oddly enough I wasn’t pondering on the moon being behind this but rather the quiet sun. I don’t know how or why but is the solar cycle related to changes in seismic activity?

  84. Webcam.
    http://219.118.247.53/view/view.shtml
    Combined views, 4 cameras. Currently dark (nighttime). Looks like wave of water visible on Camera 3 (view from high above handrails onto big area with a line of barriers, grainy image). Water in other 3 views. Pictures not automatically updating, no noticeable changes over 5 minutes of page reloads, then views didn’t load for 5 min, just reloaded again with no noticeable changes.
    Identification (Googled result using webcam URL):

    Office of River and National Highway Ministry of Land, Infra
    Location: Kurayoshi (San-In district, Honshu islan
    Site: http://219.118.247.53/view/view.shtml

    Source of Identification:
    List of “Japan live webcams” (note duplicates)
    http://www.watvon.com/webcams/countries/country/Japan

    And here I was, complaining about the seasonal spring flooding here in central Pennsylvania and about needing to take a detour Friday…

    Stay safe.

  85. From here in Tokyo, this was the most frightening earthquake I have experienced in nearly two decades living here. While much of the damage has occurred in the Sendai area, major fires took place in a building in the Tokyo Telecomm Center here in Tokyo’s Koto Ward as well as in oil installations in Chiba prefecture just east of Tokyo. The entire rail system here is shut down here in the capital. My wife will not be able to return home this evening.

  86. http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/03/11/lhvpd9/06/messagelhvpd9-06.htm

    The Tsunami Warning continues in effect for the coastal areas of California and Oregon from Point Concepcion, California to the Oregon-Washington border.

    The Tsunami Warning continues in effect for the coastal areas of Alaska from Amchitka Pass, Alaska (125 miles W of Adak) to Attu, Alaska.

    The Tsunami Advisory continues in effect for the coastal areas of California from the California-Mexico border to Point Concepcion, California.

    The Tsunami Advisory continues in effect for the coastal areas of Washington, British Columbia and Alaska from the Oregon-Washington border to Amchitka Pass, Alaska (125 miles W of Adak).

  87. BBC just had an earthquake scientist from a UK university on, refusing to say that quakes were predictable or that the magnitude of aftershocks could be foretold.
    He said that the science was not at a point where they could say that they understood enough to evaluate even the immediate aftermath shocks and that although they could and were modelling outcomes, there was very little confidence in the forecasts.
    Humility in that branch of science yet none in climate change!

  88. Posted here under the handle aerology;
    http://www.climatepatrol.com/forum/53/4804/pg1/index.php
    Subject: Extreme Super (Full) Moon to Cause Chaos?
    posted on 3/10/2011 at 05:49 PM
    All part of the 18.03 year Saros cycle of lunar phase, declinational, and perigee / apogee repeating patterns, due to the repeating of the inner planets coming into the same harmonic synchrony due to billions of years gravitational and tidal interacting till in phase.

    The years1955,1974,1992 are the analog years I use in my weather forecast, because the influences of these combined effects cause a repeating of the basic global circulation patterns. I see no reason why they would not show an affect on the tectonic movement and resultant earthquakes produced by the magnetic jerks inducted into the system.

    X class flare and CME back on the 9th, is a symptom or an effect?
    activity already going above 200 take a look at the animation of the last 7 days.

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsanim/world/

  89. crosspatch says:
    March 11, 2011 at 2:19 am
    AlBoeNEWS: Japan Meteorological Agency: Town of Kurihara has been completely destroyed

    According to Google Earth Kurihara is 45 miles inland so obviously must have been destroyed by the earthquake itself. There may be many more cities/towns which have also been destroyed.

  90. NHK has reported that one of the Nuke plants in Fukushima Prefecture has lost it’s emergency power and no longer is able to cool down the scrammed reactor and an Nuke emergency has been declared.

  91. Yer just got to love the precautionary principles of mass media, scared of Gas.

    Piss ants dont even tread on ground.

    Clear real and present danger . Nothing could have stopped it. But money where it counted may have helped predict it.

    Gas, and not gravitation, not real energy.

  93. They would not know a constant in the universe if they tripped over it while gas got blown out to space.

    They like talking about stuff they know nothing about.

  96. Japan now faces “nuclear emergency” as attempts to cool reactor at northern plant “are not going as planned”

    Prime Minister Naoto Kan will issue a nuclear emergency statement at 6:30 pm local time (0930 GMT)

  97. vukcevic says:
    Japan earthquake occurred at the end of the latest geomagnetic storm, the longest and strongest in the latest series, still going on 23 hours after it started.

    Comment; The graph looks the same as the New Zealand Quake

    Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
    March 11, 2011 at 12:54 am
    From a book I read some 40 years ago, it seems that earthquakes are clustered around solar minima, maybe some link between now increasing solar activity and geomagnetic events, which may influence tectonic plate movements?

    Comment: I,ve read many similar statements hear at WUWT.

  99. The video out of Japan is absolutely amazing. It shows the power of a tsunami even better than the home videos of the massive tsunami after the Indonesia quake a few years ago.

    If the same magnitude quake hit California the damage would be incredible. Japan is MUCH more prepared than we are for both large quakes and tsunami waves.

    7th largest quake ever recorded. Amazing.

    I felt the 7.2 “Easter Sunday Quake” here in San Diego and it was by far the strongest and longest quake I’ve ever felt. I have no desire to experience a stronger quake than that!

  102. I have many Japanese friends. This is a horrible day. In Christchurch we are struggling after our quake, but this one in Japan is huge. Just horrible.

  104. They also projected waves of up to 1 meter high in the western coasts of the Philippines about 6 hrs after the earthquake. These areas are far from Manila as we’re near the South China Sea side. Seems the waves there were not high.

  105. Terrifying vision.

    Kinda puts all the manufactured panic about a few mm/year sea level rise or fractions of a degree of temperature in perspective.

    My thoughts and sympathies to all those affected.

  106. These videos, especially of the tsunami in Sendai sweeping all before it, are totally stunning. I pray that there won’t be so many casualties because Japan has an excellent record in coping with such earthquakes. Still, the ferocity of earthquake and tsunami is stunning to watch.

    Hopefully it might dawn on some people that efforts to ‘deal’ with climate change is pure hybris.

  110. My thoughts are with all our friends in Japan and all other areas that may be hit by this.

    David A. Evans.

  111. First numbers about victims
    “12:59 Uhr: Erstmals werden offizielle Opferzahlen genannt: Danach sind bei dem Erdbeben mindestens 40 Menschen ums Leben gekommen. Weitere 39 Menschen würden vermisst, teilt die japanische Polizei in Tokio mit. ”

    Translation: The quake killed a minimum of 40 people, a further 39 are missing.

    These are very low numbers for such a huge quake. Victims from the Tsunami are not included, hope it won’t get too bad… At least for now it doesn’t look as devastating as the Kobe earthquake in 1995… My best wishes to all people in Japan!

  113. Strange. I had not thought large buildings could be completely ablaze while being carried by rushing water.

  114. roger says:
    March 11, 2011 at 2:53 am

    Humility in that branch of science yet none in climate change!

    That’s because their heads will be on a platter when they get it wrong, its a imminent danger, is now and not in a few decades or centuries into the future.

    Having said that, everyone i now in Japan has been accounted for, execpt two, but i guess that they are safe because they live south of Tokyo.

    And thanks to a family member who felt this quake in Osaka i knew of this earthquake before it started to hit the news or reached the Seismographs here in the Netherlands.

  115. Les Francis says:
    March 10, 2011 at 11:06 pm

    On shore Mag 6.8 only 67ks away from Tokyo. Quake is under a built up area.
    depth is 30km.
    Expect some damage here.
    Tsunamis can travel across the Pacific to the eastern coast of the U.S.

    That I would like to see, well not really, because that must be one massive tsunami to pull off that.

    West coast, west coast, west coast.

  118. Mount Karangetang erupts

    One of Indonesia’s most active volcanos has erupted, sending lava and searing gas clouds tumbling down its slopes.

    Volcanology official Agus Budianto said today that authorities were still trying to evacuate residents living along the slopes of Mount Karangetang.

    There were no immediate reports of injuries or serious damage.

    The 1,784-metre mountain is located on Siau, part of the Sulawesi island chain. It last erupted in August, killing four people.

    Indonesia, the world’s largest archipelago, is located on the so-called Pacific “Ring of Fire,” an arc of volcanos and fault lines encircling the Pacific Basin.

    The eruption happened hours after a massive earthquake in Japan that triggered a Pacific-wide tsunami.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/indonesia-volcano-erupts-2239167.html

  119. From a friend of mine who lives in Hiroshima, it appears that the Sendai region has been struck by 5 earthquakes with the 8.9 lasting for 3 minutes.

  122. Damn that Global Warming! It finds new ways to torment us daily!!!

    oh yes, and All The Models Predicted This!!!

    /sarc

  123. This is truly a sad day for Japan. My thoughts are with Japanese people and all other areas that may be hit by this.

  124. While watching the BBC special coverage this morning I heard one of the announcers say that low lying islands in the Pacific were in danger from the tsunami “ever more so because of rising sea levels due to global warming.”

    !!!ACK!!!

  125. Japanese police have now confirmed that between 200 and 300 bodies have been found on the beach near Sendai, the closest city to the epicentre. NHK television said the victims appeared to have drowned.

  126. I have been watching Japanese television and have seen nothing about any special damage in Kurihari, Miyagi Prefecture. All of the damage in Miyagi Prefecture appears to have occurred in coastal areas. This is also the case in Iwake Prefecture where towns along the coast have experienced devastating damage. Many of these towns along the coast there are personally familiar thorough my travels on the slow train through this lovely, lovely region within the past year. To see the destruction they have experienced is heartbreaking.

  127. According to the SMH Richard Holle is an astrologist! However, they also misspelt his name! Can’t even laugh at that at the moment.

    David A. Evans.

  128. I can’t wait for the hysterical ACC alarmist community to claim that Japan’s earthquake was caused by ACC. It’s coming, you know its coming. It will represent the final desperate scream as the green movement implodes, ending once and for all one of the most bizarre periods in human history. It will start within the next few days. I can’t wait. I just can’t wait!!!

  131. I was gobsmacked watching the disaster footage a few hours ago. Commiserations to the Japanese. If there is one nation that’s well-prepared for an earthquake, it is Japan.

    And congrats to WUWT for giving this natural disaster the due and timely coverage.

  132. I am now getting images on my video-stream that show cities by night. Do you remember those old WWII movies of cities being bombed during the night with large part of the cities on fire. Well this is just like it. And again as in Kobe, fire will be a major killer.

  133. US President Obama is scheduled to address the nation at 11:15AM EST.

    He will give thanks as the damage in Hawaii could have much worse, while noting the tragic loss of his original birth certificate.

  134. Am continuing to watch Japanese television here in Japan. The number of missing in Fukushima prefecture was just listed as more than 330. The toll here is going to be terribly high.

  135. 3 minutes from quake to wide spread warning in Japan? Good as that is I doubt that left enough time. Any reports on casualties?

  139. Hrm, that map shows a pink area covering West Los Angeles County, but AFAIK, there is no tsunami warning for this area, only an advisory.

  141. With all that energy being released, I wonder how much of it will be converted into heat in the ocean?
    Also will the tsunami have any effects upon Pacific Ocean currents?

  142. Huge fires are being reported by Japanese TV in the Sendai region of Kasenuma. (we are having another aftershock here, very good one).

  143. Pete H says:
    March 10, 2011 at 10:29 pm
    Wait for the “Moon at its Perigee” disaster comments in the MSN!

    Coincidentally, I posted a new thread yesterday about ‘MoonMan’ Ken Ring’s forecast for another quake in Christchurch on the 19th of this month, based on the fact that the Lunar perigee then will be exactly coincident with the full moon, and the closest perigee for 18 years. Jupiter’s solar perigee occurs at the same time.

  144. Has George W. Bush been blamed yet? Or was the earthquake merely caused by global warming / climate change?

  146. Emergency efforts underway in the the UK to send emergency survival supplies to replace those being sent from Phillipines and Australia. Search and rescue teams on standby to fly as soon as Japanese government can direct them.

    We must all help!!!

  147. Beesaman says:
    March 11, 2011 at 7:13 am

    With all that energy being released, I wonder how much of it will be converted into heat in the ocean?
    Also will the tsunami have any effects upon Pacific Ocean currents?

    1) Not much.
    2) doubtful.

    A tsunami is a wave in the medium of water. Ask yourself if anyone ever tries to heat up the air with sound waves, and you’re starting to get the idea. Air molecules transfer sound well enough that there isn’t much energy left over in the medium from the passing of the compression waves. Water actually does a better job at this. Likewise, ask if anyone ever tries to stop the winds with large amounts of sound? Wind is the transfer of air molecules from one point to another because of pressure differences, sound is a wave of energy where the molecules transfer energy from one to another and the energy moves along, but not the air molecules themselves.

    Likewise, ocean currents are the wholesale movement of water molecules from one location to another due to pressure gradients, you can’t affect a pressure gradient with an energy wave very much.

  149. tokyoboy:
    March 11, 2011 at 12:17 am

    I sure hope you and family are OK. Sounds like you got caught at the office.
    If you can, get us some updates. Prayers out for everyone there.

  150. I hope the problem reported with the nuc plant in Japan does not turn into a reason for them not to be used here. Also the LNG plant fire.

  151. Absolutely appalling pictures and reports coming out of Japan. I have a friend who lives in Shiga – well inland. This is what he said:

    “When it started this afternoon. It was a gentle swaying that did not stop ! A few pictures fell over but then it just continued swaying gently and just would not stop ! It was getting scarey so Junko and I went into the garden and it was a feeling of being drunk and becoming dizzy ! It gradually lessened but as I say not for a 10 minutes or so. Then it would stop and come again, many small gentle swayings. That went on for well over an hour ! Just unbelievable, I was keeping it together , but I was shaking slightly with excitement and fear probably. I think the adrenaline was flowing ~!”

    Going on for over an hour!

    My thoughts are with you, Japan.

  152. Gary says:
    March 11, 2011 at 6:01 am
    While watching the BBC special coverage this morning I heard one of the announcers say that low lying islands in the Pacific were in danger from the tsunami “ever more so because of rising sea levels due to global warming.”

    !!!ACK!!!

    I saw that too. How utterly tasteless of the BBC in the wake of this tragedy. No acknowledgement that the islands might just possibly be sinking, rather than the sea rising.

    I feel so very sorry for the Japanese people affected by this tragedy..you are in my thoughts and prayers.

  153. Best wishes to the folks in Japan. Wow, what a cluster of big ones in the late 50’s.

    Anthony don’t go to the beach today :)

  155. The CNN footage I saw of the wave coming ashore showed moving vehicles on a road trying to turn onto a street to avoid the incoming water. A few of them didn’t make it and were hit by the water. The CNN anchors made no mention of this, which I found extremely cold. Yes, report facts dispassionately, but don’t ignore what is happening right in front of your face. To those CNN blind people: those were moving vehicles you were looking at, and I know Japan is the best at robotics, but I don’t think they train their robots to run from disasters.

  156. These modeled energy plots are always somewhat fascinating to me:

    This explains to me why the west coast of Washington through most of western Canada isn’t under a warning, the Aleutian ridge shielded them from much of the energy.

  157. Would you believe it, BBC commentator on one of their video’s managed to metion global warming as an obvious cause!!!
    DB

  158. Gary says:
    March 11, 2011 at 6:01 am
    While watching the BBC special coverage this morning I heard one of the announcers say that low lying islands in the Pacific were in danger from the tsunami “ever more so because of rising sea levels due to global warming.”

    Well, it’s not like they’ve got Bush to blame anymore…

  159. “Japanese authorities ordered the precautionary evacuation of the area around a nuclear plant affected by the earthquake, saying that while there was no immediate danger, crews were having trouble cooling the reactor”

    You wouldn’t need to do that with wind turbines of course.

    Having trouble cooling the reactor is not the worlds most assuring statement if you live next door.

    Andy

  160. “Hundreds dead in Japanese quake-tsunami disaster
    Sydney Morning Herald – Miwa Suzuki – ‎47 minutes ago‎
    “We were shaken so strongly for a while that we needed to hold on to something in order not to fall,” said an official at the local government of the hardest-hit city of Kurihara in Miyagi prefecture.” http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/hundreds-dead-in-japanese-quaketsunami-disaster-20110312-1brof.html

    So early reports (keeping in mind that they are often wrong) suggest that Kurihara was indeed hit hard by the earthquake. Hopes and prayers go out to them and anyone else caught up in this maelstrom.

    Some musings: I click on the link on NOAA’s homepage for their tsunami warning and got a “page not found” for several minutes. If you can’t depend on them during a potential emergency, then their value is substantially diminished (IMHO).

    Also, I was reading an article concerning CFLs last night. Japan if often the trend setter in technology, including CFLs. I wonder how much mercury has been released into the air and ocean from tens of thousands of CFLs breaking at the same time? It would be interesting to know if it poses any more of a threat than the other toxic stuff now being washed around the islands of Japan. Reports are that a nuclear plant and petrochemical complex are ablaze. Those may or may not create a massive problems, but you know those CFLs are history.

  161. NASA may need to correct the orbital calculations, Earth-moon distance laser monitoring etc, since the Italian national institute for geophysics and vulcanology is reporting that the Earth axis has moved by 10 cm.
    http://www.corriere.it/esteri/11_marzo_11/sisma-spostamento-asse-terrestre_5ff04ca0-4bea-11e0-b2c2-62530996aa7c.shtml
    L’impatto del terremoto che ha colpito il Giappone stamattina avrebbe spostato l’asse di rotazione terrestre di quasi 10 centimetri. È il risultato preliminare di studi effettuati dall’Ingv, l’istituto nazionale di geofisica e vulcanologia.

  162. I’ve read several comments here dissing astrometeorology, which really are ill-informed. Mundane astrologers – who are of course also astronomers – have been predicting this magnitude of natural calamity at just this moment (as Uranus passes over the Aries point – 00.0˚ Aries in conjunction with a perigree moon) for a long time.

    Only yesterday the most talented of them (imo) Theo White wrote a long entry on his blog http://globalastrologyblog.blogspot.com/ which included this, and remember it was posted approx 24 hrs before yesterday’s earthquake struck:

    ” During the entire month of March 2011 we can expect to hear of powerful earthquakes along the ‘Ring of Fire.’

    In March, look first to Asia for seismic action in the northern hemisphere – China and Japan, then to the Philippines, along to the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, to British Columbia, Canada, then to California in the United States, stretching down to Mexico and into South America.

    With the global transits at hand, there are sure to be powerful, large magnitude earthquakes in the months of March and April.

    My astrological calculations show a 88.9% rating for significant seismic activity between 6.6 to 7.9+ in magnitude.

    There are additional planetary configuration signals I’ve interpreted that show even stronger quakes by scale – 8.9 to 9.2 in magnitude. Some people will not believe me, but transits are well within astrological red-zone warning range. ”

    Remember, this was written and posted before the earthquake struck. He also wrote a long defence of astrometeorology which all of you would be well advised to read; it explains that this branch (like others) when PROPERLY studied and practiced, is a science.

    Theo White has a link to WUWT on his website. He has written there often in refutation of AGW, and has detailed climate predictions for the future based on geophysical reactions to planetary movements.

    Anthony would be doing the world and science a favour if he would invite Theo to write a guest post on this science. His record is impeccable in predicting weather events which both the ‘climate scientists’ and conventional meteorologists have missed entirely.

    Please don’t scoff until you have done the research: Theo has, and his accuracy is awesome. Do yourselves the favour of reading him: you might learn something.

  163. This is horrible — I hope International assistance is already in route or being delivered.

    Given recent quakes in New Zealand and China, does anyone know if someone predicted the probability of a large quake in Japan?

    Pacific Plate hot spots appear to be well documented and Japan intersects 2 fault lines; see the link below. It seems logical with plate movement in New Zealand countered by movement along the China fault (assuming that was the cause of the recent China quake) and the magnitude of the recent quakes that the intersection of the 2 fault lines in Japan would next.

    Maybe I’m being too simplistic but I’m in Southern California and hope to never see an 8.9 quake.

    The Euler pole for the Pacific Plate is just to the right and down a bit from New Zealand (South east).
    http://nzphoto.tripod.com/volcano/PlateMotion.htm

  165. “1708UTC: Nuclear physicist Dr Walt Patterson tells the BBC it sounds like there is a “serious problem” at the Fukushima-Daiichi plant. “It’s the sort of thing that nuclear engineers have nightmares about,” he says. “If it is not resolved in the next few hours it will get serious. If the core is uncovered, then those rods at the top may get hot enough to melt themselves.”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

  167. And so the nonsense begins:

    “(Grist) — So far, today’s tsunami has mainly affected Japan — there are reports of up to 300 dead in the coastal city of Sendai — but future tsunamis could strike the U.S. and virtually any other coastal area of the world with equal or greater force, say scientists. In a little-heeded warning issued at a 2009 conference on the subject, experts outlined a range of mechanisms by which climate change could already be causing more earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic activity. . . .

    Scientists have known for some time that climate change affects not just the atmosphere and the oceans but the earth’s crust, but these effects are not widely understood by the public.”

    http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/Latest-News/climate-change-fanatics-blame-japan-earthquakes-tsunamis-on-global-warming.html

    To make matters worse, we are going to have to listen to many “experts” with no data, making statements, on nuclear power plants. Without clear information, nothing can really can be said about Japan’s nuclear situation. GK

  170. G. Karst says:
    March 11, 2011 at 9:28 am

    And so the nonsense begins:

    [idiots linking GW to earthquakes]

    Please, let them make these inane comments. Someone should then compile these comments and their sources together to show the public how the heartless and demented CAGW crowd seeks to profit politically from the death and destruction in Japan.

  172. Now on ABC News (US), 12:30PM EST:

    Esteemed Theoretical Physicist Michio Kaku warned of true “China Syndrome” in Japan.

    Presidential news conference started (I swear Good Morning America had said 11:15. Rescheduled until after the waves hit?).

    The earthquake and tsunami rated two minutes of Presidential sympathy and indicators of US Presidential Leadership In The Face Of Crisis.

    Then Obama went off about gasoline prices, finishing with Green Energy (like electric cars) and all the Green Jobs created.

    About 12:43, Q&A started. First Libya, on the budget right now.

    Global tragedy, emergency Presidential news conference, brief mention of tragedy, followed by the stuff that people have stopped watching when it’s a scheduled conference at night.

    Never let a serious crisis go to waste.
    –Rahm Emanuel

    As to the rest of the news conference, I shall follow the fine example of this fine President, and tune out.

  173. Huge devestation from this earthquake, most from tsunami, but heard reports a dam burst, and a nuclear reactor is in danger as well.

    I also saw that report on the pacific islands too. Couldn’t believe the poor taste the BBC showed just to hammer their agenda forward. It’s such disasters that define people by how they act. I am not surprised by anything the BBC say anymore, but that still caught me off guard.

  174. More news from the BBC that the situation at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant is very serious, with the core starting to heat.

    Fingers crossed that the can contain the problem and this reactor doesn’t become a long-term problem.

  175. It is total speculation on my part, but I am wondering if there is a link between quakes Down Under and ones further north in SE Asia.

    The Boxer Day 9.2 quake in 2004 was preceded by about a week by an 8.3 quake off the coast of Macquarie Island south of Tasmania. This one was preceded by the Christchurch quake.

    It is probably a coincidence, but it makes one wonder. . .

  176. Quoted by G. Karst on March 11, 2011 at 9:28 am:

    Scientists have known for some time that climate change affects not just the atmosphere and the oceans but the earth’s crust, but these effects are not widely understood by the public.

    This is true.

    It is well known in science that climate change affects the Earth’s crust. Namely in geology, as in the climate changes of this planet’s glaciation cycles, when the weight of those many tons of miles-thick ice built up on land can cause whole continents to sink and tilt. Even now, this long into the current interglacial, various land masses are still moving around since the weight of the ice was removed.

    That in this report they neglected to mention that any “climate change” from right before the Industrial Revolution until now, when evil mankind was pumping out unprecedented levels of the evil atmospheric pollutant CO2, has done virtually absolutely nothing to affect the Earth’s crust, obviously must have been a mere oversight. As we’ve come to expect.

  178. @ Ray: It really is silly to dismiss information or skills you clearly don’t understand in such a cavalier manner. See my post at 09.01 am above.

    Astrometeorology is an established science which has an enviable record in the prediction of weather events and earthquakes, unlike mainstream ‘climate science’.

    See http://globalastrologyblog.blogspot.com/ where the earthquake was predicted in detail many hours before it happened.

    Just because something appears in the DM doesn’t mean it can automatically be dismissed. On the contrary they have have a good record of publishing stuff which the broadsheets prefer to ignore (eg research on the murder of Dr David Kelly).

  179. Sam the First says:
    March 11, 2011 at 9:01 am
    I’ve read several comments here dissing astrometeorology, which really are ill-informed. Mundane astrologers – who are of course also astronomers –

    I stopped reading there.

    You are wrong.

  180. Jeremey I was not primarily thinking about the conversion from motion to heat in the water. Rather upon the actual driver of the earth quake and subsequent tsunami. That is the movement of the subducted plate. That must have created a lot of friction and in turn heat. It has got to go somewhere.
    Of course some of it will be transferred to the rock but I wonder how much is picked up by the water?

    As for energy waves effecting pressure gradients, well I guess we see some evidence of that with our daily weather when it is windy or in the movement of jet streams.

  181. 9 hours of warnings and people in Santa Cruz lose boats!!! Insane!
    Oh well, those stupid people have not lost relatives! After watching the horrific scenes this a.m. here in Cyprus I asked my son up at Tahoe doing his snowboarding to call his friends to alert his mates down in San Fran at 10:29 pm. WUWT time!

    The sad thing to see tonight is the loss of life going up and up and this is a country that practices month in, month out in preparation! To be fair, no amount of building codes or civil defence can prepare anyone for the speed or height of those waves or the huge size of the quake. The sight those waves was truly astonishing to me and made the ones from Indonesia look small!

    The Richter scale is a mind boggling thing! A guy on BBC just said at 8.9 this was 1000 times bigger than the Kiwi one a few weeks ago! Can anyone do the math for me and confirm it?

  182. The anti-nuke and anti-oil crowd is going to go ballistic as a result of this, because of the very slight damage to one or 2 nuke plants with one having a potential small radiation leak and possible damage to the core cooling system, and the refinery fire.

  184. Beesaman says:
    March 11, 2011 at 10:52 am
    Jeremey I was not primarily thinking about the conversion from motion to heat in the water. Rather upon the actual driver of the earth quake and subsequent tsunami. That is the movement of the subducted plate. That must have created a lot of friction and in turn heat. It has got to go somewhere.

    Ah I see. That is different and yes that would be real heating. Though it would be fairly localized I should think.

  186. Some of the latest news regarding the reactor-
    US delivers coolant to reactor
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110311/pl_nm/us_japan_quake_nuclear_clinton

    Emergency declared at reactor.
    “The plant is designed to shut down safely after an earthquake, but its emergency diesel generators, needed to run water pumps, were not working. ”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/12/world/asia/12nuclear.html?_r=1

    Some venting to take place.
    http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2011/03/11/nuke_plant_trouble_after_japan_quake_3k_evacuated/

  187. @ Jeremy: how very foolish. It’s precisely because people are so stuck in their own little groove and refuse to think outside the box, or to respect the mathematical etc skills of others working in parallel disciplines, that ‘science’ is in such a dire state.

    I woudl like to think that those who read WUWT are open to other opinions and disciplines, in the expectation they might learn something. This especially, when the discipline is thousands of years old.

    When someone can predict weather events over many years with a startling degree of accuracy, why not examine how he does it? Why pronounce I am ‘wrong’ when you refuse to examine the evidence? You sound like the AGW gang.

  188. I wonder about the strength of the quake. It is now listed as sixth strongest since 1900. But from the beginning it was measured as weaker. Are the measurements comparable? This one is probably 8.9 as it is measured with modern tools, and measurements have been updated from earlier estimates in the high 7.

    But the older ones, is there a risk that those where left with values more similar to the earlier estimates of this one, since there was not enough good tools available to improve on the original figures to comparable values as for the later estimates of this one?

    — Mats —

  190. “reason” said on March 11, 2011 at 11:00 am:

    KD Knoebel: OBEY THE TELEPROMPTER.

    TelePrompter, obey the baseball bat.

  191. Unlike all the other aftershocks which have been centered around the main quake on the east coast, Japan just recently got a 6.2 quake on the west coast of the Island of Honshu:

    Magnitude
    6.2
    Date-Time
    Friday, March 11, 2011 at 18:59:15 UTC
    Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 03:59:15 AM at epicenter
    Location
    37.037°N, 138.355°E
    Depth
    1 km (~0.6 mile)
    Region
    NEAR THE WEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
    Distances
    46 km (28 miles) NNE of Nagano, Honshu, Japan
    96 km (59 miles) NNE of Matsumoto, Honshu, Japan
    96 km (59 miles) NW of Maebashi, Honshu, Japan
    195 km (121 miles) NW of TOKYO, Japan
    Location Uncertainty
    horizontal +/- 12.9 km (8.0 miles); depth +/- 0.2 km (0.1 miles)
    Parameters
    NST=409, Nph=415, Dmin=55.7 km, Rmss=1.16 sec, Gp= 29°,
    M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
    Source
    USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
    Event ID
    usc0001z2a

  192. Sam the First says:
    March 11, 2011 at 11:14 am
    @ Jeremy: how very foolish. It’s precisely because people are so stuck in their own little groove and refuse to think outside the box, or to respect the mathematical etc skills of others working in parallel disciplines, that ‘science’ is in such a dire state.

    Not really no. In order for me to accept your definition of astrologers and astronomers as being equivalent, please demonstrate for me a few things.

    1) Please show me an astrologer who has discovered an extrasolar planet.
    2) Please show me an astrologer who has helped discover the life cycle of stars.
    3) Please show me an astrologer who has discovered new galaxies.
    4) Please show me an astrologer who has found the locations of invisible mass due to the motions of what is visible.

    These are the things Astronomers do. I do not see astrologers doing these things, in fact what they really do is tell me to watch my horoscope and sell me books.

    You want to say that Astrologers are Astronomers. You are flatly wrong. This is not about thinking outside the box, this is not about people cubby-holing themselves into one way of thinking about anything. This has nothing to do with human creativity or lack thereof. Your definition is flatly wrong. Astronomers investigate the universe. Astrologers try to predict the universe. There’s a huge difference. You will not see me budging on this issue in my lifetime.

    You may have some point to make, but you’re not making it. In fact what you are stating is plain falsehood.

  193. “The tsunami capital of the continental United States is Crescent City, Calif. (population 7,542), an economically depressed logging and fishing town just south of the Oregon border. Crescent City is predicted to be the California location hit hardest by the Japanese tsunami; one forecast predicts 7-foot waves, though so far the observed effect has been minimal. [Update, 2:28 p.m. ET: The Los Angeles Times reports 6.5-foot waves in Crescent City causing “significant damage” to boats in the harbor and “most of the docks” and flooding an inland creek. No reports yet of injuries or deaths. Larger surges may follow.]

    They’ve seen it before. Since 1933, 31 tsunamis have been observed in Crescent City. Four of those caused damage, and one of them, in March 1964, remains the “largest and most destructive recorded tsunami to ever strike the United States Pacific Coast,” according to the University of Southern California’s Tsunami Research Center. The 1964 tsunami killed 17 people on the West Coast, 11 of them in Crescent City. ”
    http://www.slate.com/id/2288020

  194. Pete H says:
    March 11, 2011 at 10:55 am
    The Richter scale is a mind boggling thing! A guy on BBC just said at 8.9 this was 1000 times bigger than the Kiwi one a few weeks ago! Can anyone do the math for me and confirm it?

    “energy release of an earthquake, which closely correlates to its destructive power, scales with the 3⁄2 power of the shaking amplitude. Thus, a difference in magnitude of 1.0 is equivalent to a factor of 31.6 ( = (101.0)(3 / 2)) in the energy released; a difference in magnitude of 2.0 is equivalent to a factor of 1000 ( = (102.0)(3 / 2) ) in the energy released.[2]” wiki

  195. An “energy map” provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows the intensity of the tsunami caused by the earthquake which struck Japan.

  196. The 8.9-magnitude earthquake which struck Japan on Friday was the strongest in the area in nearly 1,200 years, David Applegate, a senior science adviser at the US Geological Survey, tells the Associated Press. He says the quake ruptured a patch of the earth’s crust 240km (150 miles) long and 80km (50 miles) across.
    Copied from BBC live-feed at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/

  198. New Zealand ==> China ==> Japan is there a pattern here that is predictive of where the next quake will happen ?

  203. DirkH says:
    March 11, 2011 at 12:07 pm
    “Very detailed and up to date description of the current problems with the nuclear reactor cooling.”

    Ugh. Only now do i notice it’s from the “Union of concerned scientists”. Anyhow. This particular article looks rather sober and technical.

  204. Mats Bengtsson says:
    March 11, 2011 at 11:20 am

    I wonder about the strength of the quake. It is now listed as sixth strongest since 1900. But from the beginning it was measured as weaker. Are the measurements comparable? This one is probably 8.9 as it is measured with modern tools, and measurements have been updated from earlier estimates in the high 7.

    The modern magnitudes you hear (Moment Magnitude, IIRC) are measurements of the total energy released by a quake. It takes time to refine the result, I think they have to look at multiple recorders and factor in propagation quality and various other stuff to come up with a good final answer.

    But the older ones, is there a risk that those were left with values more similar to the earlier estimates of this one, since there were not enough good tools available to improve on the original figures to comparable values as for the later estimates of this one?

    The Richter Scale was based on the excursion of the pen of a particular brand of seismometer, distance, and probably a few other things. It didn’t handle long ruptures which take 10s of seconds to propagate so it saturated around magnitude 7-8. The figures you see in the list are likely estimates made years after the events from seismometer readings, damage reports, and measurements of slippage.

  205. Folks should keep in mind that this is just about exactly the sort of EQ that is in store for the Pacific Northwest from Seattle to Portland. The last M9 range quake there was in January 1700 (dated from tsunami in Japan that it caused). This is almost exactly the same size and type of quake that is likely to happen there in the Cascade Subduction Zone.

  207. UPDATE 7: 7.00pm GMT
    Nuclear reactors shut down during today’s massive earthquake in Japan. Official sources have reported no detected radioactive release but are still monitoring the situation, meanwhile work to establish adequate cooling at Fukushima Daiichi continues.
    Pressure inside the containment of Unit 1 at Fukushima Daichi had been steadily increasing over the time that emergency core cooling systems have not been active. Tepco reported at 2am that pressure had increased beyond reference levels but was within engineered limits.
    http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Massive_earthquake_hits_Japan_1103111.html?je

  208. On a brief skim of the reporting, my first take was, “the Japanese know what they’re doing…this won’t be near the issue it was in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.” Seeing the more recent news reports, I’m not sure any level of preparation would have helped except not building by the coast. Anyone know how long it took for the tsunami to hit shore after the 9.0 earthquake? Particularly, how long after the warning system was engaged? I saw one video where this guy is watching boats and cars floating underneath the road/bridge he is on. I was thinking, man, I wouldn’t be hanging around on a bridge like that when a boat or other large object (and the water) could knock the supports right out from under me.

  209. The Japanese sent a team to NZ to help in Christchurch, for which I am grateful. Now they endure the same, magnified terribly by the tsunami. I wish them strength.

    HT to GK for his warning about nonsense, when he quotes: “Scientists have known for some time that climate change affects not just the atmosphere and the oceans but the earth’s crust, but these effects are not widely understood by the public.”

    Yeah right. Also not widely understood by scientists, if they think it significant. Climate change has about as much influence over the drifting of tectonic plates as anthropogenic methane has on climate change.

    To John from CA, seismologists have no evidence that the earthquakes on different parts of the Pacific rim are connected causally. And unlike climatologists, seismologists do not seem to confuse correlation with causation.

  210. typical of nuclear disasters, no one killed, no one injured, no one diseased. Just a rellystupid media report. I think it may already be fixed.

  211. From the AP:

    HONOLULU – The deadly tsunami that ravaged Japan is taking a toll along the West Coast as authorities looked for at least one person missing at sea.

    The Coast Guard is searching for a man who was swept out to sea while taking photos of waves with two friends near the mouth of the Klamath River in Del Norte County, Calif. His friends made it back to shore, and helicopters are searching for the missing man.

    Sheriff’s officials in southern Oregon say one death was reported aboard a commercial vessel in the harbor at Brookings, Ore., but it appears to be from natural causes. Four people were swept off a beach north of Brookings, but were rescued.

    The Curry County sheriff’s department says two were able to get out of the water on their own, and two were rescued by law enforcement and fire officials.

    There’s a tsunami warning honey, let’s go to the beach and take pictures.” Can you say Darwin Award?

  213. It seems that the earthquake list is not the last one published online by USGS. Here is the last updated list of largest earthquakes :
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/10_largest_world.php
    The rencent Honshu magnitude Mw 8.9-9 would thus rank as the 5th largest known worldwide event.
    But more interestingly, it should be noted that this event is not the “big one” that was expected. The one that was and is still expected may occur south-west of Tokyo along the Nankai trench. There, the historical record shows repetitions of large M 8-8.5 events and the next one is probably overdue. With probably more consequences on the population of Tokyo and other southern cities of Honshu.
    To the north of Tokyo, such event has never been recorded, neither instrumentally, nor historically. Even the geology does not seem to provide evidence of such large event (it is possible now that future investigation will find out more about such large past events). Despite the 9cm/yr convergence along the trench, scientists were explaining the absence of large event by the occurrence of slow-slipping events together with events of lower magnitude (still magnitude 8s). If indeed such large event has not occurred there since 800 to 1000 years, this event is rather puzzling. We will know soon in the next days from seismological analysis how much slip was indeed involved in this event.

  215. Sam the First says:
    March 11, 2011 at 11:14 Sam

    Please take your pseudo scientific BS somewhere else, this is a science blog, and this is a serious disaster, not an opportunity for astrologers to peddle their snake oil

  217. @jtom \\I click on the link on NOAA’s homepage for their tsunami warning and got a “page not found” for several minutes //

    I clicked on the NOAA Tsunami Warning page about 9:15 am CST from Mexico.
    It showed GREEN, No Warnings at this Time. !! That was just about the time of the predicted arrival in Oregon. I got it on my iPhone camera for posterity sake with the computer clock showing.

    A few minutes later the page switched to Red, Tsunami Warning.
    Now, it could be a page caching issue. It could be something else. But clearly someone relying on a NOAA webpage would have been put into a false sense of security.

  218. Daniel H, TokyoBoy, all my friends in Japan, stay safe. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

  220. Ray says:
    March 11, 2011 at 9:53 am
    Astrologers predicted this… LMAO

    The moon causes tides in the ocean. Does it create anything comparable, though of smaller amplitude, within the lava below earth’s crust ?

  221. It was predictable; some brain dead lemming in London couldn’t wait to blame this disaster on global warming. He claims all the melting ice took the weight off the crust allowing the plates to shift. Always some a$$hole taking glee and comfort from disaster.

  222. #
    2139 GMT: Radiation levels at the damaged Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant are continuing to rise. The Jiji Press news agency says the levels are eight times above normal. Its report also cites a ministry official as saying there is a “possibility of a radioactive leak”.
    From the BBC at http://news.bbc.co.uk

  224. 2149 GMT: The Kyodo news agency is now citing a safety panel as saying that the radiation level inside one of the reactors at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant is 1,000 times higher than normal.

  225. Nuke plants have to be built somewhere, but Japan has limited space so they make do with what they have. Quasi risky but still doable with relative safety. Here in the USA we have plenty of space to build in more non-risky places. The benefit of the power source greatly outweighs any costs, including what’s happening today.

  226. Update on Fukushima. Rads reported at 1000x normal, and efforts to restore cooling have not been effective – Drudge. Evac radius extended to 10K. They better get a handle on this real quick.

  227. Interesting. The following article suggests evidence of a foreshock.

    “The earthquake occurred near the site of another tremor that shook Miyagi Prefecture on Wednesday, so the earlier quake may have been a foreshock, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.”

    “There aren’t many instances in which such a large earthquake occurs right after a magnitude 7-class quake,” said an official at the agency. “This is a highly unusual case.”

    more:
    http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20110311D11JFA11.htm

  228. It took about 1 hour for the Tsunami to hit the coast following the earthquake. Read the link above abut the nuclear plant. The data is in that link.

  230. No man is an island,
    Entire of itself.
    Each is a piece of the continent,
    A part of the main.
    If a clod be washed away by the sea,
    Europe is the less.
    As well as if a promontory were.
    As well as if a manor of thine own
    Or of thine friend’s were.
    Each man’s death diminishes me,
    For I am involved in mankind.
    Therefore, send not to know
    For whom the bell tolls,
    It tolls for thee.

  231. Wiglaf says:
    March 11, 2011 at 12:35 pm
    “I saw one video where this guy is watching boats and cars floating underneath the road/bridge he is on. I was thinking, man, I wouldn’t be hanging around on a bridge like that when a boat or other large object (and the water) could knock the supports right out from under me.”

    Probably it was the highest spot he could easily reach in the time he had, so it made no more sense to run further.

  234. Wow, if the water doesn’t leave does that mean that the land itself has sunk somewhat on the quake side?
    From the pictures this morning ,whole towns and villages have been swept to sea and all you see are foundations and roads under water, vast areas are swamped and people are stranded on top of big buildings.
    Nuke plants leaking and overheating -esh, not good on many levels.
    Was glad there was nothing much from the 7.2 on March 9th and then this.

    Have noticed that there’s been a stranger look to the world wide earthquake map of late. Seeing these multiple mini-hits over and over, like a vibration, especially around the ‘ring of fire’. Just an odder pattern of late than the usual I’ve noticed, since watching these EQ sites for about 7-8 years.

    My thoughts for Japan in her moment of crisis.
    There seems to be a huge amount of damage over wide areas.

  236. Wiglaf says: March 11, 2011 at 12:35 pm
    On a brief skim of the reporting, my first take was, “the Japanese know what they’re doing…this won’t be near the issue it was in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.”

    Here’s the scary thing. A few years ago some Californian quake disaster specialists went to Japan to get some information on Japanese methods. They were shocked with the lack of organisation skills and lack of communication abilities. The phrase “All hat and no cattle” came to mind.

  237. Perhaps this will provide some perspective on the radiation leak stories.

    “(Reuters) – Radiation detected at a central control unit at Tokyo Electric Power Co’s No.1 reactor at Fukushima Daiichi plant is NOT at a level that would require workers at the plant to evacuate, a trade ministry official said on Saturday.

    The radiation at the control unit has risen to about 1,000 times the normal level, the official said.” (emphasis on ‘NOT’is mine)

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/11/us-japan-quake-tepco-radiation-idUSTRE72A81C20110311

  238. Sigh.
    “23.03 Uhr – Im Kontrollraum des japanischen Atomkraftwerks Fukushima-Daiichi ist die Radioaktivität auf das Tausendfache des normalen Werts gestiegen.”
    http://www.ftd.de/politik/international/:erdbeben-in-japan-lage-am-kernkraftwerk-bleibt-angespannt/60024178.html#gmap-0-Tokio
    lit.: “In the control room of the reactor Fukushima-Daiichi, radioactivity has risen to 1000 times above normal.”
    German Journalists; what are they thinking – that a control room is supposed to be radioactive? Mistranslations like this are one cause for the frequent fits of Malthusian panic amongst my fellow Germans. Inept idiots. I spare you Der Spiegel who has contributed its own specific Dreck on par with Grist…

  239. The anti nuclear brigade will be making a great deal of noise about any controlled leak from the Fukushima nuclear plant.
    What they will fail to mention is the “leak” will be nearly all water vapour with a small trace amount of N16 (the radioactive part). The N16 has a half life of approximately 7.1 seconds so will rapidly decay to oxygen.
    Some anti-nuclear group (according to sky news) is claiming the radiation levels around the Fukushima are 1000 times higher than normal. They should wait 10 minutes and measure again because by then the amount of N16 left wont be enough to register above the normal background radiation level.

  240. (Sorry if this has already been posted)

    Some respond to Japan earthquake by pointing to global warming

    “Some islands affected by climate change have been hit,” said Nilsson. “Has not the time come to demonstrate on solidarity – not least solidarity in combating and adapting to climate change and global warming?”

    “Mother Nature has again given us a sign that that is what we need to do,” he added.

    Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/03/11/some-respond-to-japan-earthquake-by-pointing-to-global-warming/#ixzz1GKrE81f2

  241. TerryS says:
    March 11, 2011 at 2:58 pm
    …What they will fail to mention is the “leak” will be nearly all water vapour with a small trace amount of N16 (the radioactive part)…

    May be a more serious problem if the water has been contaminated by fissionable material from heat damaged fuel rods.

    There is too little hard information around to know just how good or bad things are at the moment, but I’m not getting good vibes about this one!

  242. Could not help but notice the comments in WUWT on the BBC report speculating on more damage to the Pacific islands due to the climate warming and sea level rise. The fact many inhabited islands have never been anymore than barely above sea level may not be important.

    BBC exposed their policy as a biased network by using a real tragedy to take a cheap shot. Making climate change a focal point is a true low in reporting in view of the reality.

    What were they thinking with the scope of the tragedy up front to detour their report to support a theory not only not proven but riddled with deception.

  244. I wonder if a tsunami of this proportion will yield noticeable cooling of SST. Seems like it might stir and cool like soup, or a hurricane. Any opinions?

  246. For all those who don’t understand my exasperation with these journalists: The control room of a nuclear power plant is never inside the reactor containment. For obvious reasons.

    Maybe we should have SMART people in the newsrooms. Which we don’t.

  247. Radiation is of course more than 1000
    times mormal -and of course
    the nuclear industry and the usa
    and Japan govts and their shills
    will spin it just as
    the Usa and BP and the USa media
    spun the on-going endless
    BP Gulf of Mexico catastrophe-
    (the pro-nuke and pro-oil shill troll crowd
    is just as vocal and more ballistic
    than any anti crowd and much better funded)

    And the connected psycho imbecile builders of
    usa nuke plants built them on or near
    earthquake faults because faults create rivers and
    rivers are where the coolant water is cheapest.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/fukushima-nuclear-plant-2011-3

    here are the facts-
    not troll hot air–
    http://alethonews.wordpress.com/2010/05/29/2010/02/25/look-out-for-the-nuclear-bomb-coming-with-your-electric-bill/
    http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=18951
    http://alethonews.wordpress.com/2010/02/25/2009/12/03/theres-more-to-climate-fraud-than-just-tax-hikes/
    http://redactednews.blogspot.com/2010/09/911-global-warming-and-other-crimes.html
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/harvey-wasserman/frances-nuke-power-poster_b_176690.html
    http://www.namastepublishing.co.uk/Populations%20Exposed%20to%20Enviromental%20Uranium.htm
    http://www.namastepublishing.co.uk/Global%20Implications%20of%20Sellafield%20-%20Irish%20Sea%20Coast%20Effect.htm
    http://redactednews.blogspot.com/2010/09/911-global-warming-and-other-crimes.html
    http://www.nirs.org/home.htm
    http://www.app.com/article/20100915/NEWS/9150349/Nuclear-waste-piles-up-with-no-disposal-plan

    trillion dollar loan guarantee to nuke industry
    http://www.psr.org/assets/pdfs/alexander-webb-bill.pdf
    http://www.beyondnuclear.org/home/2010/5/27/packing-the-nuclear-pork-barrel-by-nrdc.html
    http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/cpaine/packing_the_nuclear_pork_barre.html
    http://iraqwar.mirror-world.ru/article/228057
    http://www.beyondnuclear.org/
    http://nuclear-news.net/2009/06/05/is-nuclear-a-green-fuel-%C2%AB-voices-from-ghana/
    http://nuclear-news.net/
    http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&site=alethonews.wordpress.com&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nuclear-news.net%2F2009%2F05%2F06%2Fformer-federal-regulator-plans-for-fermi-3-nuclear-reactor-could-lead-to-job-loss%2F&sref=http%3A%2F%2Falethonews.wordpress.com%2F2010%2F02%2F25%2Flook-out-for-the-nuclear-bomb-coming-with-your-electric-bill%2F
    http://iraqwar.mirror-world.ru/article/225551
    http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20100522/NEWS02/100521022/Strontium-discovered-in-soil-surrounding-Vermont-Yankee-leak

  248. Good morning folks, it’s 8:55 am now local time, Saturday, March 12.
    Yesterday evening I had to walk home; 7-8 miles, 2.5 hours.
    I saw a huge number of cars “adhered to roads”; no move, all the way.
    They say the dead and missing are more than 1,000 now, but nodody knows exactly.
    In several places near the epicenter, towns disappeared by a single tsunami stroke; a big tragedy indeed.
    I do feel natural disaster mitigation is much much more important than preparing for the imaginary AGW.

  250. #
    2252 GMT: The Tokyo Electric Power Company has said the cooling systems of three reactors at second nuclear power plant, Fukushima-Daini, are malfunctioning, according to the Kyodo news agency. The plant is 11km (7 miles) to the south of Fukushima-Daiichi, where the cooling system one of its reactors is not working and pressure is rising.
    Copied from the BBC site.

  251. 2310 GMT: More from the Tokyo Electric Power Company: It says the ability to control pressure in some of the reactors at Fukushima-Daini has been lost. Pressure is stable inside the reactors, but rising in the containment vessels, a company spokesman says.

  254. tokyoboy

    It’s really good to hear from you.

    and I hope everyone else from Japan is well. Hope to hear from the rest of you.

  255. N16 is produced only during reactor operation. It was gone within the first minute after the reactors tripped. Any radioactivity in released steam will be from low level fission products due to tramp uranium in cladding and minor leaks in fuel assemblies, if they have any. Perhaps some activated corrosion products and noble gases. The real issues will only occur if they get fuel damage AND a significant breach of containment. I work in nuclear in the USA. For the record, I work for AEP but I speak for myself not AEP.

    I am paying attention to developments but not too worried yet.

  256. tokyoboy says:
    March 11, 2011 at 3:56 pm
    “Good morning folks, it’s 8:55 am now local time, Saturday, March 12.”

    Glad that you’re fine – and that the modern architecture of Tokyo withstood the quake so well.

    I understand the Japanese fascination with Tokyo-destroying monsters (Gojira, Neon Genesis Evangelion,…) much better now, having seen the videos of the Tsunami devastation…

  257. This is the html version of the file http://www.spaceandscience.net/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/ssrcresearchreport1-2010.doc.
    Google automatically generates html versions of documents as we crawl the web.
    Space and Science Research Center

    P.O. Box 607841

    Orlando, Fl 32860

    Research Report 1-2010 (Preliminary)

    Correlation of Solar Activity Minimums

    and Large Magnitude Geophysical Events

    John L. Casey1

    Released for world wide web (www) distribution on Monday, March 1, 2010.

    [1] An independent review of historical records was performed for 350 years of global volcanic activity

    (1650-2009) and seismic (earthquake) activity for the past 300 years (1700 to 2009) within the continental United States and then compared to the Sun’s record of sunspots as a measure of solar activity. All three data sets were examined to determine whether a relationship existed between them and if the results of such a study could be used to develop methodology for identifying future geophysical events. The preliminary results from the study have shown that there exists a strong correlation between the solar activity that causes climate changes and the Earth’s largest seismic and volcanic events. The impressive degree of correlation for global volcanic activity (>80.6%) and for the largest USA earthquakes (100% of the top 7 most powerful) vs. solar activity lows provides a basis for future estimates of the time periods and magnitudes for the largest volcanic and seismic events many decades in advance. Finally, the coincidence of the Centennial and Bi-Centennial cycles of the RC Theory showed unmistakable relationships to these largest geophysical events. The use of such a tool may provide a new and valuable method for protection of people and property located in and around high risk geologic zones. Further, a significantly increased risk is indicated during the next 20 years for volcanic and earthquake events of historic scale. Citation: Casey, John. L. (2010), Correlation of Solar Activity Minimums and Large Magnitude Geophysical Events, Research Report 1-2010 (Premiminary), March 1, 2010, Space and Science Research Center, (SSRC).

    1. Introduction.

    [2] Previous work by Casey (2008) known as the “RC Theory,” established solar activity as a reliable model for prediction of the Earth’s climate changes. During the course of the research it was observed that there may be a positive correlation between solar activity as measured by sunspot counts over a long term base line average, and major geophysical events specifically earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. This previous research found for example, that the largest ever recorded volcanic eruption, Mt. Tambora in Indonesia (1815), as well as the largest earthquakes in the history of the United States, the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812, all occurred near the bottom of the last solar hibernation known as the Dalton Minimum (1793-1830). Given this initial relationship, a more detailed study of geophysical records was made to assess the degree of correlation if any that may exist between the Sun’s activity and such events.

    2. Review of Global Volcanic Activity vs. Solar Activity from 1600AD to 2009AD.

    [3] Using the historical record of volcanic eruptions developed by the Smithsonian Institution, an extraction was made of all those eruptions that were rated at a Volcano Explosive Index (VEI) of “5” or greater. The level of 5 on the VEI scale of 0-8 was selected since it was the beginning class of large eruptions. Many are familiar with the scale of such via Mt. St. Helens. This volcano has an established eruptive history and up to and after the May 18, 1980 VEI 5 event, was well documented and instrumented.

    _______

    1. Space and Science Research Center, a division of Verity Mgmt. Svcs. Inc., Orlando, Florida

    ***********************************************************************************

    Table 1. Volcanoes of greater than or equal to VEI of 5 from 1650 to 2009. This list of large volcanic eruptions since 1650 was used as the baseline list for comparison against solar activity, i.e. periods of reduced sunspot count to determine any apparent associations. 5* = a class five VEI with potentially large date uncertainty, P* = plinian large class eruption, assumed >VEI 5. The study did not include activity associated with geological hot spots or caldera (super volcano) sites. Source: Smithsonian Institute.

    Volcano Location Year VEI

    1. Shiveluch Kamchatka Penninsula 1650 5

    2. Long Island N.E. New Guinea 1660 6

    3. Usu Hokkaido, Japan 1663 5

    4. Shikotsu Hokkaido, Japan 1667 5

    5. Gamkonora Halmahera, Indonesia 1673 5*

    6. Tongkoko Sulawesi, Indonesia 1680 5*

    7. Fuji Honshu, Japan 1707 5

    8. Katla So. Iceland 1721 5*

    9. Shikotsu Hokkaido, Japan 1739 5

    10. Katla So.Iceland 1755 5

    11. Pago New Britain 1800 P**

    12. St.Helens Washington State, USA 1800 5

    13. Tambora Lesser Sunda Islands,Indo. 1815 7

    14. Galungung Java, Indonesia 1822 5

    15. Cosiguina Nicaragua 1835 5

    16. Shiveluch Kamchatka Penninsula 1854 5

    17. Askja N.E.Iceland 1875 5

    18. Krakatau Indonesia 1883 6

    19. Okataina New Zealand 1886 5

    20. Santa Maria Guatemala 1902 6

    21. Lolobau New Britain 1905 P*

    22. Ksudach Kamchatka Penninsula 1907 5

    23. Novarupta Alaska Penninsula 1912 6

    24. Azul, Cerro Chile 1932 5+

    25. Kharimkotan Kuril Islands 1933 5

    26. Bezimianny Kamchatka Peninsula 1956 5

    27. Agung Lesser Sunda Islands, Indo. 1963 5

    28. St. Helens Washington State, USA 1980 5

    29. El Chichon Mexico 1982 5

    30. Pinatubo Philippines 1991 6

    31. Hudson, Cerro So. Chile 1991 5+

    ************************************************************************

    Of the 31 eruptions documented since 1650 with a VEI greater than or equal to 5, a total of 25 occurred during a reduced period of sunspots if not a major reduction in sunspots or a solar hibernation, e.g. the Dalton or Maunder Minimums. This preliminary study showed 80.6% of the largest eruptions took place during extended solar activity minimums. Significantly, the following list of the eight largest volcanic eruptions globally (VEI>6) since 1650, shows all but one took place only during a solar hibernation, or significant reduction in solar activity as measured by sunspot count.

    *************************************************************************************

    Table 2. Volcanic eruptions that took place during major solar minimums and solar hibernations. This table establishes the strong relationship between the largest volcanic eruptions and solar activity lows on the order of the Centennial and Bi-Centennial Cycles defined by the RC Theory.

    Volcano Location Year VEI Associated Solar Minimum

    1. Long Island N .E. New Guinea 1660 6 Centennial: Maunder

    2. Pago* New Britain 1800 P Bi-Centennial: Dalton

    3. Tambora Lesser Sunda Islands 1815 7 Bi-Centennial: Dalton

    Indonesia

    4. Krakatau Indonesia 1883 6 Centennial: Year 1900

    5. Santa Maria Guatemala 1902 6 Centennial: Year 1900

    6. Lobobau New Britain 1905 P Centennial: Year 1900

    7. Novarupta Alaska Peninsula 1907 6 Centennial: Year 1900

    8. Pinatubo Philippines 1991 6 No Correlation

    *************************************************************************************

    * P = plinian level large eruption.

    3. Solar activity time line for comparison with volcanic and earthquake activity.

    [4] Extended sunspot minimums, i.e. covering two or more 11 year Schwabe cycles, intermediate minimums, and solar hibernations were extracted from the chart below for use in volcanic and earthquake vs. solar activity comparisons:

    Figure 1. 400 years of sunspot observations depicting the Maunder and Dalton Minimums and the Modern Maximum. Source: Graphics; R. A. Rhode, Global Warming Art, from data sets by Hoyt and Schatten (1998a, 1998b).

    4. Correlation of the Largest Continental Earthquakes to Solar Activity for the Period 1700 to 2009.

    [5] Identification of the largest continental US earthquakes was done with data from the US Geological Survey (USGS). The table below shows the top seven largest earthquakes and is taken from the revised June 7, 2005 published list of the largest fifteen earthquakes and reexamined for completeness on September 8, 2009. All of these largest seven are strongly correlated to an associated solar activity minimum.

    **************************************************************************************

    Table 3. Top seven largest continental USA earthquakes. Source: USGS*

    Location Date Magnitude Associated Solar Minimum

    1. Cascadia subduction zone 01-26-1700 ~9 Centennial: Maunder

    2. New Madrid, Missouri 12-16-1811 8.1 Bi-Centennial: Dalton

    3. New Madrid, Missouri 02-7-1812 ~8 * Bi-Centennial: Dalton

    4. Fort Tejon, California 01-09-1857 7.9 Intermediate Minimum***

    5. San Francisco, California 04-18-1906 7.8 Centennial Minimum

    6. Imperial Valley, California 02-24-1892 7.8 Centennial Minimum

    7. New Madrid, Missouri 01-23-1812 7.8 Bi-Centennial: Dalton

    *************************************************************************************

    * Measurement methods vary. The USGS says the New Madrid Feb 7 1812 temblor may have been 8.8 on the Richter scale.

    ** Centennial and Bi-Centennial cycles from the RC Theory have periods of 90-100 years and 206 years respectively.

    *** Intermediate Minimums are easily observed declines in solar activity (sunspots) though lesser in magnitude than Centennial or Bi-Centennial events.

    5. Conclusions.

    [6] As a result of research conducted, it is reasonable to conclude there exists a strong correlation between global volcanic activity among the largest of classes of eruptions and solar activity lows. With the 80.6% occurrence of large scale global volcanic eruptions taking place (>VEI 5) during solar activity lows and with 87.5% occurring for the very largest (>VEI 6) eruptions during major solar minimums, it is concluded that any reliable predictive tool for forecasting future solar activity would also lend itself to forecasts for future global volcanic eruptions of the most powerful magnitudes. For example the RC Theory of solar activity may be an effective tool for forecast of global volcanism.

    [7] The occurrence of each of the largest seven USA earthquakes during solar activity lows and in particular during solar hibernations indicates a predictive tool like the RC Theory for future extended solar minimums may also be effective in forecasts of major USA earthquakes.

    [8] Given the unusually high degree of correlation found in the study for both the highest levels of global volcanism and USA earthquake activity when compared to extended solar activity lows, it can be concluded that there exists a significant likelihood (greater than 80%) that the current recently started solar hibernation may result in historic scale global volcanic eruptions and record earthquake activity within the continental United States.

    [9] The determination that solar activity cycles may indicate timing and intensity of geophysical events like volcanism and earthquakes points toward a possible connection between solar activity and the underlying cause of these geophysical events, namely plate tectonics.

    [10] The solar hibernation identified by Casey (2008) is currently under way. The results of this study and the high correlation between described volcanism and earthquakes and solar hibernations warrants the widest dissemination of warnings to personnel and governing organizations in high risk geophysical zones. It is expected beginning at any time and during the next twenty years of the solar hibernation, that potentially historic volcanic eruptions are likely globally and similarly record setting new earthquakes are likely within the continental United States.

    [11] Acknowledgements.

    The Global Warming Art project and the GNU Free Document Licensing program in total, for their open availability of high fidelity graphical representation of important research data, especially by R.A Rhode and L. McInnes and data from Hoyt and Schatten. The US Geological Survey for historical data on USA earthquakes. The Smithsonian Institute for data on global volcanism.

    References

    Siebert L., Simkin T (2002-). Volcanoes of the World: an Illiustrated catalog of Holocene Volcanoes and their Eruptions. Smithsonian Institution, Global Volcanism Program Digital Information Series, GVP-3, (http:www.volcano.si.edu/world/).

    USGS, Largest Earthquakes in the United States, June 07, 2005, http:www.earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/states/10_largest_us.php.

    Casey, John L. (2008) The existence of ‘relational cycles’ of solar activity on a multi-decadal to centennial scale, as significant models of climate change on Earth, Research Report 1-2008, January 22, 2008, Space and Science Research Center, (SSRC).

    _______________

    John. L. Casey, President, Verity Mgmt. Svcs., Inc., and Director of the Space and Science Research Center (SSRC).

    P.O. Box 607841, Orlando, Fl 32860

    http://www.spaceandscience.net

    3

  260. Not sure if this has been posted before, but this is Google’s Japan 2011 earthquake page with a good resources section with flight, blackout, transport, disaster and alarm information. Phone numbers and a people finder is there as well, looks like a timely and valuable link, perhaps needs to be at the top.

    http://www.google.co.jp/intl/en/crisisresponse/japanquake2011.html

    My thoughts are with the Japanese people at this terrible time.

  261. tokyoboy says: March 11, 2011 at 3:56 pm
    [Good morning folks, it’s 8:55 am now local time, Saturday, March 12.
    Yesterday evening I had to walk home; 7-8 miles, 2.5 hours.—– I do feel natural disaster mitigation is much much more important than preparing for the imaginary AGW.]
    —————————————————————————-
    Tokyoboy Best wishes to you. Good to hear you made it home safely. Have followed your comments here. I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment. You live in the real world.

    BTW I have a nephew who lives near Tokyo – haven’t heard from him yet – and a niece who was saved from the PGG building in Christchurch – the February quake – she was lifted out by a crane when many of her workmates perished. These are real problems to face.

    Douglas

  262. DirkH says: March 11, 2011 at 4:30 pm
    […] the modern architecture of Tokyo withstood the quake so well.[….]

    Yes, indeed; this morning most of public transportation lines are OK, and the street traffic is as that on normal Saturdays.
    The only personal problem is that I was unable to get anything to eat for lunch at convenience stores, because last night many people had to stay in office and bought most of foods and drinks. Several stores are momentarily shut down due to lack of regular supply.

    An on-board announcement in the subway I took was “We hope you get home safely” at 8:30 in the morning!

  263. We live in Zushi. I was at work in Yokosuka, and it shook us pretty well, over 250 miles away. And it went on and on. Cars were jumping around like low-riders. I can’t imagine how horrible it must have been for those in Sendai and the other affected areas. Please keep everyone affected in your prayers.

    This is a good time to remind everyone that you *REALLY* need to have a good emergency kit at home, in your car, and at work. We had pretty much a full kit, but by time we got home, it was pretty dark and we needed the car flashlight to locate the kit because the power was out. Under the stairs? In the closet? No, in the shed. It has been thankfully unused since we got it after Katrina. Still in good shape. Full kit information available at:

    http://www.fema.gov/areyouready/assemble_disaster_supplies_kit.shtm

    We were lucky because my wife was at school with my son and the girls’ day care is across the street from my work. Our electricity was up at work so we got the tsunami warning right away, and we kind of beat the rush home. The 30 minute drive still took almost 2 hours. People who left 15 minutes or so after me had a 4 hour drive.

    Lessons learned? 1) Write up your family emergency plans, and e-mail it to yourself on your cell phone, iPhone, etc. Keep a copy at work in your kit and in your car kit. 2) Keep family e-mails and phone numbers in multiple locations. Wallet, cell phone, glove compartment, address book at work. After you get your family safe, distant friends and family will want to know you are OK. You MAY be able to text them if e-mail is down to ease their mind. 3) Have a plan as to who gets your children or elderly relatives in case of an emergency. We ended up with 4 children and one grandmother from the neighborhood for several hours. 4) Have an alternate cooking plan (grill or camp stove). You can always have peanut butter and jelly, but that gets old after a while. 5) Have a land line (non-cordless) since those may still work if power is out. 6) Have something for everyone to do to keep them calm. Kids can fill up water jugs and the bathtub (in case water stops–helps with flushing the toilet). 7) Check on and talk to neighbors. You’re in it together. 8) Conditions may change. Power was on at work, I had no idea it was off at home since cell phones were busy and texting barely worked. 9) An emergency radio is handy–if you’re international, you may not understand local warnings. 10) I happened to have my car, but many people ended up walking because the trains were stopped and buses were full. 11) The people on bikes and scooters were making MUCH better time than those of us in cars. Also, I could have walked the 7 miles home as quickly as I drove; but had the 5-year old twins so it wasn’t an option. Get the best information you have and make the best choice you can. Take into consideration who you have to care for, what you need, where you are going, and the level of your gas tank. A 7 mile drive took the car from half full to a quarter tank, and there was no chance to refill the tank once we hit neighborhoods without power.

    We were thankfully spared from everything other than some minor inconveniences, but it was truly an eye-opening experience. An event 250 miles away caused us to lose power, get in traffic snarls, broke the family into 2 units that could not communicate, left friends stranded miles away and children in need of adult supervision, and gave concern to family and friends because we couldn’t tell them we were okay. To be quite honest, our plans were barely adequate and our kit only good for the situation we were in. If the quake had been closer, we would have been in a bad situation. And even if the situation of yesterday evening had continued (power off and 5 extra people), I’m not sure how long we would have been good for. Maybe several days.

    Seriously, take time this weekend to write a plan, update your safety kit, and make sure you have one at home, in your car, and at work. Spend the money to get yourself prepared. We took the time after Katrina and are glad we did. We are even MORE glad that this little test run was mercifully easy on us. Should there be a next time, we will be much better prepared!!

    God bless and keep you, and don’t forget to pray for the poor people of Northeastern Honshu.

  265. Part of photonews by Asahi Newspaper online site (may undergo updating):
    http://www.asahi.com/photonews/

    Top 6 photos are on the quake (from left top clockwise):
    1. Kesennuma city (near epicenter): ships and housed washed away.
    2. Kesennuma city: large-area fire.
    3. Chiba: oil tank explosion.
    4. Tokyo: smoke from fire.
    5. Chiba: oil refinery fire.
    6. Fukushima (nearer to epicenter) : tsunami disaster.

  266. Although it was 8.9 magnitude compared with the Christchurch 6.3, the peak ground acceleration in Christchurch was a massive 2.2g compared with only 0.82g in this one:
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_ground_acceleration

    This tsunami was likely the main killer.

  268. Small silver lining: the tsunami damage in Japan would have been even worse if the quake had not occurred near low tide.

  269. MS said: “The moon causes tides in the ocean. Does it create anything comparable, though of smaller amplitude, within the lava below earth’s crust ?”

    Earth tides are partly controlled by the moon. Check out the link below for a good summary and some referneces:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_tide

    Wikipedia is not totally worthless!

  270. Like others, I am shocked at the level and scale of the destruction. I hate to think of what the final total for loss of life, injury, and property damage will be.

    However, some people just don’t understand the real reason for the quake. I guess plate tectonics is a bit too much for them to understand…

    Bob Diaz

  272. 1F1 Nuclear Unit – my understanding is that venting the secondary contaiment gases through the existing SBGT system would be a normal backup approach in an emergency situation like the one that seems to have occurred.

    The highest priority is to resupply electrical power to replace the power lost from both grid and the EDGs (emergency diesel generators).

    My latest understanding is there is a reasoned well organized and calmly controlled approach being taken. Love those guys.

    John

  273. The ONLY factor that has changed is prolonged minimal /or changed solar activity (SNN, FLUX, geomagnetic, etc, see all WUWT postings about this), nothing else has. please note.
    Nota Bene: current temps are -0.353C AMSU and has been below anomaly for 3 months now. Global warming ain’t correlated guys.

  274. Totally separate from my beliefs about “AGW”, my thoughts and prayers (no offense intended) are with the folks in Japan, hopefully their thoughtful preparations and good luck will help to reduce the inevitable suffering from these events that seem to exceed our ability to predict them.

  277. Such an act of nature brings into perspective the relative weakness of terrorist acts, climate change and so many other things we are led to believe that we should fear.
    Technology now allows us to witness this catastrophe and to imagine ourselves in the place of these poor souls.
    And yet the majority of people in the free world are resting in the comfort of our homes.
    Prayers to the many people suffering tonight.
    Hope for a better tomorrow.
    Thanks for the comfort we enjoy.

  278. Heard earlier today on CNN that the magnitude was upgraded to 9.1! Has anyone else seen, or heard this. Certainly puts this quake into the top ten recorded.

    The loss of life has already exceeded that from Chritchurch less than three weeks ago. If it weren’t for the tsunami we could have expected a lot fewer deaths thanks to the preparidness of the Japenese people and authorities. The thoughts of all Kiwis are with the people of Japan at this difficult time.

    [ryanm: USGS still has 8.9. other agencies offer their own estimates]

  279. My wife spent a good chunk of last night trying to get through to her family. They are OK. Her neice’s husband has a small demolition company, and was doing a job in Tokyo when the local people came and complained that his bulldozer was making the whole neighbourhood shake. So now we know who to blame.

    But, if no-one else has done, I’m going to blame it on Global Warming.

  281. Roger Sowell,
    I’ll wager that this earthquake will prove how wrong you are.
    The comments to your article are from folks who know as little about nuclear energy as President Obama.
    Embarrasing having him offer assistance to the Japanese.

  282. Since there is some evidence that extended solar minimums are tied to volcanism/earth quakes and those minimums also influence cooling, maybe possible that mantle rock contraction from the cooling would open magma seals and cause movement in slip faults?

  283. @ Les Francis says:
    March 11, 2011 at 6:02 pm
    “three out of six largest earthquakes since 1900 took place in the recent 6 years.”

    When was that from, in the 1960`s ?
    http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/results?bt_0=1900&st_0=2011&type_17=EXACT&query_17=None+Selected&op_12=eq&v_12=&type_12=Or&query_14=None+Selected&type_3=Like&query_3=&st_1=&bt_2=&st_2=&bt_1=&bt_4=8.6&st_4=9.9&bt_5=&st_5=&bt_6=&st_6=&bt_7=&st_7=&bt_8=&st_8=&bt_9=&st_9=&bt_10=&st_10=&type_11=Exact&query_11=&type_16=Exact&query_16=&display_look=1&t=101650&s=1&submit_all=Search+Database

  285. From Roger Sowell on March 11, 2011 at 6:35 pm:

    I am on record as opposed to all nuclear power plants, especially new nuclear power plants. This earthquake and the current emergency is but one of the reasons.

    This is a reason to use CANDU reactors. Use low-grade fuel that must be prodded into having fast-enough fission reactions, rather than high-grade fuel that must be restrained from having too-fast fission reactions.

  286. We had a really impressive 6″ (150 mm) tsunami here in Hawaii at 3AM. It was worth it staying up to see it.:-)

  287. From Mark Twang on March 11, 2011 at 4:10 pm:

    “Today’s tsunami: This is what climate change looks like”

    From the website “Grist”. They call themselves “a beacon in the smog”.

    Grist: (bold added)

    The proverb “all is grist for the mill” means “everything can be made useful, or be a source of profit.“

    Too true.

  288. Big earthquakes are not new:

    Here are the largest magnitude earthquakes in history, according to the USGS website:

    – 9.5, Chile, May 5, 1960. A quake off the coast of southern Chile killed more than 1,600 people and left 2,000,000 homeless.

    – 9.2, Alaska, United States, March 27, 1964. A quake and tsunami killed 128 people and caused severe damage to the state’s largest city Anchorage.

    – 9.1, Indonesia, December 26, 2004. An undersea quake caused a massive tsunami that devastated coastlines in countries around the Indian Ocean, ultimately killing more than 220,000 people.

    – 9.0, Russia, November 4, 1952. A quake off the coast of the remote Kamchatka peninsula in Russia’s far east caused Pacific-wide tsunamis.

    – 9.0, Peru, August 13, 1868. The port of Arica, which is now part of Chile, was hit by a quake felt up to 1,400 kilometres (870 miles) away.

    – 9.0, North America, January 26, 1700. A quake affecting 1,000 kilometres of coastline set off a tsunami that crossed the Pacific Ocean and caused damage to coastal villages in Japan.

    – 8.9, Japan, March 11, 2011. An undersea quake off northeast Japan unleashed a 10-metre-high tsunami which left devastation in its wake.

    – 8.8, Chilean coast, February 27, 2010. An offshore quake and tsunami killed more than 500 people, most in the coastal area of Maule, 400 kilometres (250 miles) south-west of the capital Santiago.

    – 8.8, Ecuador, January 31, 1906. A quake struck off the coast of Ecuador and Colombia and was felt as far away as San Francisco.

    – 8.7, Alaska, February 4, 1965. A quake in the remote Rat Islands generated a tsunami reported to be 10 metres high.

    – 8.7, Portugal, November 1, 1755. The capital Lisbon was struck by a quake while many residents were in church. A quarter of the city’s population perished.

    – 8.7, Chile, July 8, 1730. A quake hit the city of Valparaiso, 120 kilometres northwest of the capital Santiago, causing a tsunami which hit more than 1,000 kilometres of coastline.

  290. Smokey says:
    March 11, 2011 at 5:22 pm

    > NZ, then Japan. Maybe now it’s California’s turn.

    Be very careful in looking for patterns in a series of random events. People do that all the time – they’re called winning streaks and loosing streaks. Besides, you left out China and Hawaii.

    Turkey and Afghanistan are always good choices.

    These days I feel more concerned about St. Louis than San Francisco.

  292. Sincere thoughts to all those affected in Japan and the Rescue and Recovery Operation, but to associate this catastrophic earthquake with global warming is a cheap and misleading use of tragedy to promote a cause.

    It is easy to get the impression from the media that these types of events are increasing with one disaster after another occurring around the world. And easy to neglect history and disregard the fact that we have had to live with the devastation of Nature since we first evolved on this planet.

    What has changed is communication and the recording of events. Almost every person in the developed world to-day is on broadband internet or has a mobile phone with camera or a pocket video camera. Whenever a disaster happens to-day, we there on the scene within hours with dramatic coverage repeated time after time by a frenzied media. Or we are reading amazing on the spot accounts on face-book.

    But who remembers the fact that when ‘Gone with the Wind’ was first hitting the screens up to 50,000 people died in a magnitude 8 earthquake in Erzincam Turkey? Or when Legionnaires disease broke out in Philadelphia, a quarter of a million people perished in the Tangshan earthquake in China? Or that when people were queuing to see the Beatles Movie ‘Let it Be’ in London, up to 80,000 people were killed in the Chimbote Peru earthquakes and avalanches that left over 1 million people homeless.

    Nothing has changed folks. We just know it is happening. And we probably are coping much better than we did.

  293. I think the molten ball we float on contracts and expands. But if you’ve ever watched magma expand at the surface during an eruption you can visualize pressure build up.

    This is so heartbreaking for Japan.

  295. I live and work in Japan, in Koriyama city, Fukushima prefecture.
    I was in work yesterday when the automatic quake alert system triggered. It announced that the predicted quake would be “Shindo 2” (Japanese intensity scale). By the time it had announced this, the quake was already well underway, and I said to my co-worker “No way. This quake is already way above Shindo 2 – more like a 4..”.

    The quake kept intensifying, and I instinctively knew this one was very different from all the other quakes I’ve experienced in the 4 years since I moved here. So I advised my co-workers we should use the nearby emergency exit/stairs (we’re on the 2nd floor) “Now!”. When I opened the emergency exit doors, to our surprise snow started blowing in, due to – and this was GREAT timing – a bloody blizzard – of all the things to be going on at the same time!

    So, LOL, I had a choice then…. freeze to death or crushed to death! By this time the quake had reached its Shindo 6 crescendo so I scampered down the stairs and ran to the relative shelter of the trash disposal/recycling garages, one of my co-workers right behind me. So we stumbled about in the blizzard waiting for this frackin’ quake to stop – it seemed to go on for more than 2 minutes, which I can assure you seems like a lifetime, during a quake of this intensity.

    So the quake eventually ran its course, and we tentatively went back up the stairs to the lab. The mess was as expected – PC’s and desks tossed around like marbles in a tin can; test equipment also. Then the emergency evacuation bell started ringing so everyone went out into the cold to assemble in designated places. Women were weeping, people were dazed, I as the only western foreigner was joking with my co-worker and was generally on an adrenaline buzz – the joking around was probably a coping mechanism, now that I look back to it.

    So everyone’s outside for about 40 minutes during which time more snow showers blew over and everyone?s getting real cold. Eventually, the management say the women employees are to leave the building and go home, first. About 20 minutes later I – by now sobered up and quite concerned for my wife and 9 year old son – started driving back home.

    On my way back I noticed lots of older houses were the most damaged – the ones roofed with heavy slate tiles had lots of tiles come down. Some of the really old buildings had their mud and straw walls completely pulverised.

    My concern at that time driving back was the Abukuma River – there are a number of bridges across it and as reluctant as I was to cross any of them after that size of quake, I simply had to risk it to get back to my wife and son, breathing a sigh of relief at the other side of the bridge I picked. I did notice some damage at the interface of the bridge end with the solid road it meets up with.

    My house is at the top of a slope at the end of a cul-de-sac. It was bought new and is only 3 years old, and I was VERY concerned about its condition because after the quake I couldn’t reach my servers which run at the house, over the internet. I was relieved to find it still standing and in apparent good condition when I went along my driveway – phew!

    BUT, when I looked around the outside of my house, I noticed a few things :
    1) The ground around the house has sunk by about 4-5cm’s. There’s a tide-mark around the base of the house where the ground used to be.
    2) At the rea of the house there’s a grassy slope, leading down to a fence under which is a large stone wall intended to hold the slope and earth in. There is a long fissure running from the rear of the house right along under my storage garage and onto my neighbor’s house.
    3) The wall at the bottom of the slope is VERY damaged.
    4) The soil has sunk about 6-10cm at the base of the slope – I can see the other side of the wall now.

    I had a quick look inside the house and as was my workplace, everything’s been tossed around the house. No sign of wife and son so they’re still outside somewhere.

    We have a procedure for this eventuality, so I parked my car near the entrance of the cul-de-sac in case of further huge quakes, got out and began to make my way towards my son’s nearby school. Luckily, my wife was returning in her car and peeped the horn when she saw me – she had our son with us!

    Later on that day we spoke to the local fire brigade who advised us that perhaps our house wasn’t safe to stay in due to the fissure at the rear and the damaged wall/slope below it. So we spent the night in the local community center having brought some previously prepped supplies, sleeping bags, pillows.

    All during that, there was continuous tremors and aftershocks. They did not stop all night and are still continuing as I type this 24 hours after the initial event, so I’m a bit strung out at the moment.

    Cellphone service was out since the quake – although the HSDPA network was up and running so I had internet connection y way of wireless tether to my laptop via my android phone. I managed to get in touch with one of my old friends who contacted my mother in Scotland. At 3am I managed to get a phone call to Scotland and my mother was quite relieved. I didn’t get a lot of sleep last night.

    We returned to our house in the morning, and have been visited by the head of the company who built our house who reckons it’s safe enough to stay in. We have power, food, heat, and water so we’re in no way in as bad a shape as what’s happened to a lot of other areas around Japan, which is quite horrific.

    So we’ve tidied up the house a bit and it’s in not too bad a condition, and we’ll be sleeping in the living room tonight just as a precaution in case any big quakes reoccur.

    It seems the tremors are now beginning to abate, 24 hours after the initial event, so everyone’s hoping the worst is over and there will be no further big quakes. I hope I and my wife and son get some sleep tonight, too.

    Regards,

    Kevin.

    [Reply – thanks for sharing your story – it got sucked into spam – ~jove, mod]

  296. NHK World broadcast app has been repeating a Tsunami warning for the last little while. Looking at the Japan Meteorological Agency site there is the following warning dated 12th March:

    Tsunami Warning/Advisory

    Issued at 13:50 JST 12 Mar 2011
    *******************Text********************
    Changed;
    Tsunami Warning –> Tsunami Warning
    Tsunami >
    EASTERN PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
    CENTRAL PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
    WESTERN PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
    IBARAKI PREF.
    WAKAYAMA PREF.
    KOCHI PREF.

  297. I’m blown away by the level of stupidity in some people.
    Here’s a collection of comments I’ve found:

    Bob Diaz

  299. Sad though this event maybe what saddens me more, to the point of disgust, is the coverage in the media. The resulting tsunami spreading across the Pacific inundating low-lying islands is more severe because of sea level rises as a result of global warming. Fortunately, every I know in the affected region is OK.

    And tonight in Australia we are treated to Al Gores mocumentary “An Inconvienient Truth”.

    “Bob Diaz says:
    March 11, 2011 at 11:14 pm”

    Stunning levels of ignorance at that link, stunning!

  300. My thoughts are with the people of Nippon, once we were enemies but now good friends, I can do but do little to help as this is a disaster of huge magnitude. I have great faith in their abilities but trust my country does all it can to assist in the aftermath.

    I recall that the result of a quite sun is oft correlated to increased earth quakes and volcanic activity. Travelling in a clock wise direction on the ring of fire the USA may have the next big one.

    The next round maybe volcanoes starting in New Zealand or Indonesia, perhaps big ones.

    I can only wonder what if the billions spent on AGW were put to real scientific endeavour and an understanding of these events could be anticipated. Sad,Sad, Sad.

  301. I would like to thank Sam for his kind comments, and for the work of Anthony on WUWT, a fine site on climate science that I and my readers enjoy very much.

    As for my prediction of the Japan earthquake:

    I accomplished this by astrological means, as I do with all of my advanced climate and weather forecasting.

    I applied the same methods with my forecast of El Nino & La Nina for the period 2009-2011.

    What we are experiencing are celestial forces and their impacts on the Earth. We are in for a rough two months or so of very strong seismic activity and weather anomalies, according to my calculations.

    My warnings are based on my astrological findings, based on variable mathematics – not ‘pop culture astrology,’ which is the place from where those who make dismissing comments always base their uninformed opinions.

    Those who dismiss astrology, in my view, are simply ignorant of that on which they speak. They are no different from those who say mankind is the cause of climate change – something I reject as ignorant as well.

    They also tend to forget that astrologers invented meteorology, the forecasting of climate and weather conditions, in advance.

    Personal dispositions, biases, ideology and ignorance have no place in science.

    And for those who dismiss ‘astrology,’ they are also dismissing outright the works of Brahe, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Ptolemy, Newton, Franklin – all astrologers.

    My practice of Astrology is as a polymath and scientist. I am proud to be a mundane astrologer and astrometeorologist. I do not need, seek, or desire the validation of anyone ignorant of that on which they comment to be able and free to work in my professional field.

    The situation in Japan is very sad, but I knew it was coming. The resulting damage and threats from the damaged nuclear reactors is a very serious matter.

    I’ve also forecasted seismic activity to strike California as well. All the astrological indicators I’ve seen are there.

    The strong lunar perigee this month, and another in April are serious matters when it comes to seismic and weather events.

    We will see more natural disasters associated with the configurations of bodies relative to the Earth and I’ve published findings and forecasts in advance so people can be prepared.

    These are serious times and require serious minds to help to preclude and reduce as much damage as is possible.

    Theodore White, astrometeorologist.S

  302. Could there be a possible short or medium term climatic effects from the Japan’s earthquake?
    Relationship between Kuroshio current and Kuroshio countercurrent flowing along the Japanese islands is important factor in the pacific climatic picture.

    There is possibility that this relationship may be affected in some way.

  303. Checking in. Home is about 60km NNW of Sendai. Magnitude and duration caught my attention. First arrivals (P waves) were obviously from Miyagi, and I knew it was going very bad for people on the coast. Lots of noise from the house and stuff jumping about, but no significant damage at home or in the community. Home is 3 storey steel frame on reinforced concrete footings, built to the latest (post Great Hanshin) standards

    The scary part is you don’t know how big or how long, you just have to wait for things to stop. Lots of aftershocks. Power has been off until this evening (local time) and water is still off. We filled the bath while water was still running, so we have enough t drink, and I’ve been harvesting snowmelt from the garage roof as a reserve.

    Astrology :rolleyes: jeez, give us a break.

  304. “Hector Pascal says:
    March 12, 2011 at 2:39 am

    The scary part is you don’t know how big or how long, you just have to wait for things to stop.”

    That’s my experince too, in New Zealand. It’s that “pregnant pause” at 2am (Or any other time TBH but at night is more confusing) after being shaken awake, thrown out of bed etc and, after understanding the land you live on, thinking “Is this the big one and where the hell are my pants?” type thoughts.

  305. Well, Hector, “Astrology :rolleyes: jeez, give us a break,” accurately forecasted ENSO and a 8.9 earthquake. So, let’s leave out the ignorant comments if you don’t have anything substantive to add other than ‘rolleyes.’

    Give me a break.

    Vukcevic, answering your question: “Could there be a possible short or medium term climatic effects from the Japan’s earthquake? There is possibility that this relationship may be affected in some way.”

    The quake affected earth’s spin rate by microseconds, but more worrisome is the nuclear reactor crisis.

    I expect a core meltdown at one of the two reactors in northern Japan and there’s serious problems with at least four other reactors damaged by the earthquake.

    There has been release of cesium into the atmosphere and the problem of cooling the rods has severely reduced the likelihood they will be able to stop a core meltdown.

    Going into Sunday, it looks as if the world will see a real ‘China Syndrome,’ in Japan.

    Very, very serious weeks and months are ahead.

  306. Piers Corbyn says “The massive Japan Earthquake and Tsunami were triggered by massive events on the Sun and there are more to come in the next two years”

    He Says:

    • “The Earthquake was preceded by an X class solar flare and a significant hit of the Earth by a Coronal Mass Ejection – reported by nasa – http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News031011-xclass.html

    • “We warned after the New Zealand Earthquake on 21 Feb that the solar-lunar scene is set for more Earthquakes for the next two years:

    http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=314&c=5

    • “Many of these Earthquake events, as well as weather events, will be very extreme.

    • “Actual Earthquakes are very difficult to predict but major aftershocks will come after this one.

    • “Just to be clear in case the usual fools and charlatans make claims the weather and earthquake events that have come and are coming are absolutely nothing to do with CO2 or so called man-made climate change in any way whatsoever and such talk diverts attention from where it is needed and holds back the advancement of science”.

    http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=325&c=5

    ·

  307. re: Theodore White

    What we are experiencing are celestial forces and…

    Please be specific. What celestial forces from what celestial bodies?

    And for those who dismiss ‘astrology,’ they are also dismissing outright the works of Brahe, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Ptolemy, Newton, Franklin – all astrologers.

    So this is the quality of your logic? You think that because some scientist was correct with one thing (eg. Newton and gravity) that they must be correct with everything (eg. Newton and astrology). Alternatively, you think that because somebody dismisses one part of somebodies beliefs (eg. Newton and astrology) they must also dismiss their scientific work (eg. Newton and gravity).
    None of the science produced by Brahe, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Ptolemy, Newton, Franklin depended upon their belief in astrology. I will not dismiss anybodies science based solely upon their beliefs whether it be Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, astrology or even a belief in a flat earth provided that their science is not dependent upon their beliefs.

  308. Some people wonder if the moon was to blame for the earthquake. The tides are greatest during a new moon and during a full moon. However March 12 was the date of the quarter moon so this aspect of the moon’s phase had nothing to do with the earthquake. In addition, the moon goes in an elliptical orbit so it is at a close point once a month and at a far point once a month. The close points are February 19 and March 19, whereas the far point in its orbit is March 6. So the date of the earthquake on March 11 could not have had anything to do with the distance to the moon either.

  309. I can’t find the LINK anymore – I think it was on Drudge.com, but someone associated with the Tsunami Warning Center said, based on the energy released, the size of the Tsunami, etc, the quake should be upgraded to 9.1.

  310. @ TerryS says:
    March 12, 2011 at 9:40 am
    “None of the science produced by Brahe, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Ptolemy, Newton, Franklin depended upon their belief in astrology.”

    Kepler was a great sceptic, but his observations forced him to accept things he would never had believed in. He applied his findings of heliocentric configurations in forecasting the very cold winter of 1595, which is when he found fame, many years before producing his orbital equations. By the same repeatable principles, I can hindcast any recorded cold winter. I call it Planetary Ordered Solar Theory.

  311. Terry said, “None of the science produced by Brahe, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Ptolemy, Newton, Franklin depended upon their belief in astrology. I will not dismiss anybodies science based solely upon their beliefs whether it be Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, astrology or even a belief in a flat earth provided that their science is not dependent upon their beliefs.”

    And, you would be wrong.

    Astrology is not a simply a ‘belief,’ it is an interdisciplinary science which gave birth to mathematics, medicine, meteorology, astronomy, physics, and other priori-based sciences.

    Brahe, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Ptolemy, Newton, Franklin were all professional astrologers and all they did was based on astrology, which deals with the physical as much as the metaphysical.

    Most astrologers are polymaths, widely versed in the sciences. All of the astrologers named above were also astrometeorologists and forecasted climate and weather by astrological means. Facts – not ‘beliefs.’

    They simply did not ‘believe’ in it as if it were merely some side show. I suggest you review your own knowledge of the history of astrology, and that of those practitioners of the science of Astrology.

  312. I have been curious about this topic, and as part of my general reading, have wondered how great minds have handled this and how astrology influenced their science.In addition to those mentioned above, St Thomas Aquinas tried to reconcile astrology with Christianity.
    For a non-nutty historical perspective, try “The fated sky: astrology in history” by Benson Bobrick. He slowly warms to the topic but retains a detached historical perspective. The correlations mentioned make for fascinating reading. Even Gann charting had its start in astrology.

  313. Having seen the tsunami on TV yesterday, it was shocking to see again the power of nature at work – warehouses and other buildings being bowled over and inundated by this massive wave relentlessly churning forward, with a massive field of debris in tow. I sure hope the Japanese people will be okay, and can survive this knockdown blow of nature.

    As for astrology – what is that doing here? Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.

  314. No Larry, the Japanese people will NOT be ‘okay,’ and I’m not a ‘blind squirrel’ that ‘finds an acorn.’

    I am a scientist and a mundane astrologer. If you need to demean my expertise, then you are going to have to do much better than ‘squirrels’ and ‘acorns.’

    What is ‘astrology doing here?’ What does that mean?

    Get off the ‘pop astrology’ mindset, that will you help tremendously.

    And do some serious reading. That will expand your knowledge of serious astrology.

    Do you think ‘astrology’ is somehow enclosed somewhere as if the forces which are studied by the science are somehow outside of you?

    You are inclined by these forces everywhere you go, since the very day you were born, to this very moment now.

    Listen, some of those making surface feeder comments on astrology and world events are going to have to wake up from their deep childish sleep and get real. Personal dispositions, opinion and bias are never sufficient posing as knowledge. So let’s not be vulgar, shall we?

    These world events are very serious, and astrology plays a major role, as it always has throughout the entire history of humanity. And, times are going to become even more serious in the future. It is time to get real folks.

    Those who are clueless to these facts should spend more time getting educated, rather than chucking out silly one-liner comments, weakly disguised to hide their own lack of knowledge on the subject itself.

    We’ve seen the same kind of silliness coming from those who blame humanity for global warming without so much as even looking up at the Sun – the cause of all climate change.

    You live on a planet which lives in space. These are the inclinations and causes on life on Earth.

    Those who spend their time dissing Astrology are those who do not know what they are talking about, because, if they did, then they would not presume to pretend to know what they are commenting.

    Welcome to the 21st Century.

  315. Sun 13th March – Channel 9 – 60 minutes program – Liz Hayes just linked the Earthquakes in Japan, Chile and New Zealand with Hurricans, Floods, Bushfires and Droughts … she didn’t **say** Climate Change but it was heavily insinuated.

  316. Theodore,

    Newtons “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” is not based, in any part, on astrology. None of his scientific works are. The same is true all the others you name. If I am incorrect in this please provide exact references as to what parts of any of those scientists works are based upon astrology.

    What forces are you talking about when you mention “celestial forces” or “the forces which are studied by the science” or “You are inclined by these forces”.

    You claim to be a scientist and that astrology is a science well here is your chance. Explain what forces you are talking about, how the forces are generated, detected and measured, what units they are measured in, how they propagate through various mediums and at what speed they propagate.

  317. Terry,

    First, I would appreciate it if you would not tell me that “I claim to be a scientist.” I am one, and if that is not sufficient for you, then I suggest you address your comments elsewhere.

    I am not in the habit of having to educate those who show little genuine interest attempting to debate a subject in which they are not knowledgeable; yet who have plenty of resources at their fingertips to access to learn.

    Second, it is known that all the astrologers I named were, in fact, mundane astrologers, so let’s not go into a ‘rationalist’ discussion because that is just too tired.

    Fourth, your usage of the term ‘astrology,’ dictates that it is somehow ‘apart’ from ‘scientific works?”

    I would like to know exactly how you have came to this conclusion, since the founders of natural laws and principles of science – including those of natural philosophy, physics, and the planetary laws of motion – were astrologers?

    Claudius Ptolemy – astrologer
    Tycho Brahe – astrologer
    Nicolaus Copernicus – astrologer
    Galileo Galilei – astrologer
    Johannes Kepler – astrologer
    Isaac Newton – astrologer
    Benjamin Franklin – astrologer

    All of these astrologers were polymaths, or scientists. Each were proficient in the two trees of Astrology – Natural & Judicial. There are many more personages throughout the course of history.

    Isaac Newton, just one of my major influences, began his scientific career from his study of astrology.

    He advanced to judicial, or mundane astrology and was also a fine meteorologist as well. Furthermore, he also studied Theosophy, a subsection of mundane astrology that focuses on theology.

    You can find Newton’s work on this here: http://www.newtonproject.sussex.ac.uk/prism.php?id=141

  318. Theodore,

    “First, I would appreciate it if you would not tell me that “I claim to be a scientist.” I am one, and if that is not sufficient for you, then I suggest you address your comments elsewhere. ”

    This is Anthony Watts blog, not Theodore Whites. If Anthony has a problem with my comments then I am confident he will let me know.

    “I am not in the habit of having to educate those who show little genuine interest attempting to debate a subject in which they are not knowledgeable; yet who have plenty of resources at their fingertips to access to learn.”

    If I was not interested I would not ask the questions. I have searched and can find no answer to original query which was:

    Explain what forces you are talking about, how the forces are generated, detected and measured, what units they are measured in, how they propagate through various mediums and at what speed they propagate.

    As you have the knowledge in this area an explanation would be useful.

    “Second, it is known that all the astrologers I named were, in fact, mundane astrologers, so let’s not go into a ‘rationalist’ discussion because that is just too tired.”

    I dont question whether or not they were astrologers.

    “Fourth, your usage of the term ‘astrology,’ dictates that it is somehow ‘apart’ from ‘scientific works?'”

    That is correct. It is apart from scientific works.

    “I would like to know exactly how you have came to this conclusion, since the founders of natural laws and principles of science – including those of natural philosophy, physics, and the planetary laws of motion – were astrologers?”

    They were also all male. This doesn’t mean that being male makes you a scientist. You are making the claim that their science is intertwined with their belief in astrology so please provide references to what parts of their science depends upon astrology.
    I come to the conclusion because despite extensive searches I am unable to find anything within astrology that resembles science.

    “Isaac Newton, just one of my major influences, began his scientific career from his study of astrology. ”

    Newton studying astrology does not make astrology a science. He also studied the occult and alchemy and believed that occult forces where responsible for gravity.
    Newtons erroneous belief that occult forces where responsible for gravity does not invalidate his works on gravity. His study of astrology does not make astrology a science.
    John Maynard Keynes said of Newton “Newton was not the first of the age of reason, he was the last of the magicians.”. A sentiment I agree with.

  319. I am often labelled ‘astrologer’, but I could not recognise any of the astrology squiggles, and pseudo-scientist, but I am an astronomer or astrophysicist or even scientist, just a practical down to earth engineer.
    Reason: pointing out to a strong correlation between Jupiter-Saturn orbits (two planets with strongest magnetic fields) and the sun’s magnetic polar fields oscillations:
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
    Does matter, or does it bother me?
    Not in the least.

  320. Werner Brozek says:
    March 12, 2011 at 9:45 am
    “Some people wonder if the moon was to blame for the earthquake.”
    Tidal forces raise and lower the surface of the ocean on a daily basis, sometime twice. In some places the water rises several feet.

    I expect that such strong forces do have the ability to trigger an earthquake, but there is not much, if any, correlation which would allow us to use tides to make predictions.
    There is probably an unpredictable lag between tidal forces and the release of faults.

    Regardless, the cause is not tide or the moon, the cause is the flow of fluid rock which carries the crust upon its surface. When two convective currents collide, one goes under and the other goes over, crust and all.

    Japan is riding like flotsam (or slag on a molten weld) on a current of fluid rock which is flowing eastward. That current is striking a current of fluid rock which is flowing westward (from the mid-ocean ridge) and subducting beneath Japan. The earthquake was a release of a “sticking point” and resulted in the island moving about 9 feet eastward (relative to the Asian contintent I presume), relieving much strain at the fault.

    Not an expert but I have read some.

  321. Correction…Japan moved relative to the mid-ocean ridge. Japan rides upon the same plate as Asia.

  322. TerryS,

    “John Maynard Keynes said of Newton “Newton was not the first of the age of reason, he was the last of the magicians.”. A sentiment I agree with.”

    You were doing so well up to that point, then had to spoil it with an ad hom. If Newton was a ‘magician’ as Keynes claims, then how does that help your argument that Newton’s work was based on science?

    On the other hand, I would also like to see your question answered, namely “what are these celestial forces?” a question that Theodore has so far ducked.

  323. Re: Vince Causey.

    Here is the full quote:

    I do not see him in this light. I do not think that any one who has pored over the contents of that box which he packed up when he finally left Cambridge in 1696 and which, though partly dispersed, have come down to us, can see him like that. Newton was not the first of the age of reason. He was the last of the magicians, the last of the Babylonians and Sumerians, the last great mind which looked out on the visible and intellectual world with the same eyes as those who began to build our intellectual inheritance rather less than 10,000 years ago. Isaac Newton, a posthumous child bom with no father on Christmas Day, 1642, was the last wonderchild to whom the Magi could do sincere and appropriate homage.

    You can read more here

  324. TerryS,

    That was a very interesting read. It puts the original quote in a completely different context, and reveals the deeper, philosophical meaning of Keynes description ‘magician’.

  326. @Terry,

    Not all astrologers are ‘male,” as one of my main teachers was a female, so let’s not make assumptions simply because a short list of male mundane astrologers has you going into gender issues which has little to do with this topic. That is just simply more proof of how ideology has poisoned science, and it has no place

    As for Newton: do more reading. I included a link earlier which shows Newton’s own notebooks, and the books found in his library. This should tell you more than enough about Newton and his practice of scientific astrology.

    As for your comment that astrology is ‘apart from science,’ – you are clearly very wrong, since Astrology gave birth to the sciences. Whether you want to ‘believe’ it or not isn’t a factor, since it has nothing to do with the truth of the matter whatsoever. That is a ‘personal’ issue you have, and it is only for you (and no one else) to resolve.

    So, rather than come off with comments fueled by opinion, personal disposition, supposed male gender issues and bias, you ought to spend more time actually studying the facts of the matter – for that is how you learn.

    Regarding The Moon, Sun, Quakes & The Climate –

    The Moon raises the land, sea, and air tides of the Earth. This is well-known by astrometeorologists. For instance, when the Moon rises above the horizon, it raises the air tide of the Earth, a huge atmosphere of gas (water vapor) and pushes away the cold of space.

    When the Moon sets below the horizon, you will observe condensation of clouds often, this is because the cold of space then comes closer to the Earth. The troposphere kicks into action – and we get ‘weather.’

    My own forecasting of the cause of the Japanese quakes is based on the magnetic resonance of the modulation of the planets of the Sun’s solar magnetic winds.

    We have planetary configurations very much in line with seismic activity – and there is more to come – for the west coast of the U.S. I’ve forecasted the place, dates and magnitudes I expect, as I did with the Japanese earthquakes.

    This month and April are significant for seismic activity along the Ring of Fire, and the causation are, as always – celestial.

    What is known as the ‘electric quake phenomenon,’ the inclinations of sunspots and fluxes of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) that affects the Earth’s ionosphere, forms one-half of a kind of ‘capacitor,’ with the Earth itself forming the other.

    Any fluctuation of voltage levels on one half of the plate induces charges on the other.

    However, unlike a capacitor, our planet has electromagnetic charges distributed below its surface, so subsurface rock plates semi-conducts itself – producing stresses – bringing about sharp spikes of electromagnetic-forced breakdowns and shifting of tectonic plates – again, sparked by celestial movements.

    This includes the raising of land-tides by the Moon at variable mathematical angles, along with alignments between the Sun-Earth-Moon.

    Planets also modulate rates of electromagnetic energy by mathematical angle, by their directions relative to the ecliptic, and so add to the strength of planetary conduction – resulting in low or high levels of magnitude: the release of energy.

    All of this is celestially-forced:

    Astrophysical = causes
    Geophysical = effects

    These are the principles of physics – discovered by astrologers.

    These are also the same forces which bring about global warming and global cooling in our atmosphere. The Sun is the prime cause of all climate change and always has been.

    It is my estimation that we are in the 30th year of solar-forced global warming, with about six (6) more years to go.

    Humanity was never the cause of GW, and has never been. The lie of anthropogenic global warming has been and is propagated by the same people who say they are ‘scientists,’ but who in reality are ‘ideologists,’ – that is, self-serving greedy and corrupt careerists who are ideologues – not scientists.

    Science is about exploration and discovery – no matter where it may lead.

    Once personal disposition, ideology, bias and uninformed opinion has entered the equation – one ceases to be a scientist.

    According to my calculations, we will enter a new ‘Global Cooling’ phase lasting approximately 36 years (2017-2053) according to the astrophysical laws of cycles that regulate the Earth’s climate – founded by astrologers.

    Global cooling is much, much worse than global warming could ever be. I have stated my forecast for years, and it has not changed.

    We should be preparing for bigger storms, floods, droughts and colder global temperatures – forced by the Sun, the cause of all climate change on Earth.

  327. Theodore,

    “These are the principles of physics”

    So the answer to my question:

    Explain what forces you are talking about, how the forces are generated, detected and measured, what units they are measured in, how they propagate through various mediums and at what speed they propagate.

    Is that there is no “celestial force”, just plain old simple electromagnetism and gravity,
    and that astrology just takes these forces and puts its own interpretation on what impacts they will have without bothering with annoying things like calculations, equations, experimentation, measurement etc?

  328. @Terry,

    Define what you mean by “just plain old simple electromagnetism and gravity,” and “astrology just takes these forces and puts its own interpretation on what impacts they will have without bothering with annoying things like calculations, equations, experimentation, measurement, etc?’

    What does that mean? What ‘interpretations,’ are you talking about?

    Where you are coming from with all this?

    First you mix in ‘gender’ with the fact that some astrologers are male. Yes, Terry most of them were and had a pair of balls. So what? Is that ‘okay’ with you, or do you have a problem with males in general in the field of science?

    If I named some women, would that satisfy you enough to get off your ideological spin, or rather, would you like me to sound stupid so you can shit on astrology some more?

    Would that make you feel better about it all?

    Are you a scientist, or are you yet another ideologue who mixes apples with oranges and all kinds of foolishness, like your gender remarks, in an attempt to be some kind of smart ass? Science has had enough of that crap with the AGW ideologues.

    Yes Terry, we silly nilly willy astrologers have to work with, as you put it, – “annoying things like calculations, equations, experimentation, measurement.”

    I know I do. I have to use variable mathematics (invented by astrologers you know, algebra, geometry, etc.) in my advanced climate and weather forecasting. It is how I forecasted ENSO four years in advance.

    Thing is, we can’t put the entire Earth and it’s climate into a laboratory, you know, where we can “measure” the atmosphere so accurately that we can then presume to tell everyone that humanity is the cause of global warming and climate change.

    I think the problem here Terry is your own personal definition of what the term “Astro-logy” means.

    Guess you don’t put any stock in the “logy” following “astro,’ since that doesn’t tell you anything (although it should tell you much.)

    From the tone of your comments, you don’t appear to have much knowledge of astrology, except from a pop-culture mentality, which is par for the course coming from those who often abuse the term “astrology” as if they know what they are talking about.

    Everyone has their own opinion – uninformed as they are – but few actually do any real study of the History of Astrology.

    Much of what most people know – especially so-called ‘rationalists,’ is from a surface-feeder level – and that water is barely ankle deep.

    Since the term “mathematicus,” means ‘astrologer’ – you might want to read a bit on the history of astrology:

    Here’s a paper, written by a woman (so you won’t get on my case about it being written by a “man”) which you might learn a few things from:

    “The article reviews the history of astrology in the middle ages including its classical inheritance, ascendancy under Byzantium and Islam, and development in the Latin west. Medieval astrology was a part of learned, scientific culture.

    However, the translation movement in the high middle ages brought challenges of integration to the Latin west, reflected in condemnations and anxieties about the orthodoxy and morality of astrological judgments.

    It was not until relatively late that astrology was practiced on a large scale in medieval courts and it never achieved the same level of prominence as it did under Islam.

    The final section considers new work on the history of astrology, including astrology and medicine and astrology and the court. The article considers major figures, including Claudius Ptolemaeus (Ptolemy), Isidore of Seville (c. 600 ad), Māshā’allāh (Messahallah) (c. 735–815), Abū Ma’shar (Albumasar), Ahmad ibn Yūsuf (870–904), John of Seville (fl. 1135–1153), Alfonso X (El Sabio) of Castile (1221–1284), Albertus Magnus (1206–1280), and the fifteenth-century astrologer historian, Simon de Phares.”

    See – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1478-0542.2010.00703.x/abstract

  329. Theodore,

    As my previous comment indicates, gender is irrelevant. Here is the comment again in case you missed it:
    “They were also all male. This doesn’t mean that being male makes you a scientist.”

    If you choose to misinterpret this then that is beyond my control.

    As for definitions.
    Electromagnetism is one of the 4 fundamental forces and causes the interaction between electrically charged particles. Electromagnetic force is inversely proportional to the square of the distance between the charged particles.
    Gravity is another of the fundamental forces in which 2 bodies attract each other in proportion to their mass. Again, the force is inversely proportional to the square of the distance.

    “Yes Terry, we silly nilly willy astrologers have to work with, as you put it, – “annoying things like calculations, equations, experimentation, measurement.” ”

    Presumably then, since you’ve done the calculations, you can tell me what the extra gravitational strain was on the faultline due to the moon being closer this month than last month. Alternatively you could provide the equations you used or even a link to a website that describes the equations in sufficient detail that they can replicated.

    “I know I do. I have to use variable mathematics (invented by astrologers you know, algebra, geometry, etc.) in my advanced climate and weather forecasting. It is how I forecasted ENSO four years in advance.”

    Without knowledge of all of your forecasts it is impossible to judge how good they are. I’ve only been able to find this one on the internet:

    Fall 2010 – the season starts off with what “appears” to be another early Indian summer, but then Fall turns into a very wet, extended, and warmer-than-normal season w/ tropical air, torrential rains. This is going to be a longer-than-normal fall season that extends right into January 2011.

    Winter 2011 – arrives late, not starting until early Feb. 2011, colder than normal, La Nina phase. Mid-winter conditions will exist through March, and winter conditions will persist into April 2011, making for a colder, and later than normal Spring of 2011.

    That certainly doesn’t describe the fall or winter I’ve experienced.

    You seem to be fixated on the role astrology played in the past. It doesn’t matter whether astrology did or did not contribute to mathematics or astronomy in past centuries. It doesn’t matter whether it was or was not considered a science in the past.
    What matters is whether it is a science now.
    Whether you call it natal, katarchic, electional, event, horary, mundane, world or judicial astrology having an “ology” at the end does not make it science.
    All of them have one thing in common and that is that the position of a distant star at the moment of birth or at the present moment (whether a person or a nation) influences that person/nations fate.

  330. Terry,

    My inclusion of that link for you in no way says anything about my being “fixated on the role astrology played in the past,” – so let’s not take it upon ourselves to assume as you have done, once again, shall we?

    As I’ve said, believe what you want, opine as you wish, however, that is simply your personal opinion and does not, in any shape, manner or form, change any of the facts of the matter.

    Moreover, if you did not experience La Nina this year Terry, then I can only presume you are commenting on this forum from another planet other than Earth.

    Just because you have not heard of astrometeorology does not make you any more qualified to then to make the assumptions you do about the science of astrological forecasting, which you are also not qualified to not call a ‘science,’ has you have done.

    You are in error.

    Do more reading, and study rather than offering your opinion and trying to change history to fit your personal dispositions and ideology, which I think is not only intellectual dishonest, but ignorant.

    If you are to debate with an expert on astrology and forecasting then know what it is that you are debating about, or, you are not qualified to debate at all.

    The only way you learn that which you do not know is to do your homework on the science of astrology. Male or female, Terry, learning that which you do not know is the same for both genders.

    Have a nice life.

  331. @Dave Worley, there are thousands of scientific studies on the Moon’s effects on the Earth, with direct correlations to the lifting of land, sea and air tides.

    The problem with some who continue to deny these facts are that they simply do not want to ‘believe,’ and surely do not want to spend any time reading what amounts to decades of extensive scientific research on the subject.

    Just a sign of the times that shows how bias, ego, careerism and ideology has nearly ruined science, such as we have seen with the years of deception that humanity was the cause of global warming – an outright lie designed to line the pockets of those with vested interests who’ve nearly destroyed climate science.

    Meanwhile, NOAA has just released video of the tsunami propagation of the March 11th Japanese 9.0 earthquake I forecasted:

  332. Re: Theodore

    “My inclusion of that link for you in no way says anything about my being “fixated on the role astrology played in the past,””

    True, however making claims about the role astrology played in the past with practically every comment does say a lot about your fixation.

    “Moreover, if you did not experience La Nina this year Terry, then I can only presume you are commenting on this forum from another planet other than Earth”

    I presume from this statement that you believe your prediction of a warmer than normal start to the winter (all the way into January) to be an accurate reflection of what actually happened. If thats the case then I have little confidence in your claim to have predicted ENSO four years in advance.

    “Just because you have not heard of astrometeorology does not make you any more qualified to then to make the assumptions you do about the science of astrological forecasting, which you are also not qualified to not call a ‘science,’ has you have done.”

    My wide experience and knowledge of science qualifies me.

    “Do more reading, and study rather than offering your opinion and trying to change history to fit your personal dispositions and ideology, which I think is not only intellectual dishonest, but ignorant.”

    I have not tried to change history so kindly withdraw the intellectual dishonest and ignorant accusations.

    “If you are to debate with an expert on astrology and forecasting then know what it is that you are debating about, or, you are not qualified to debate at all.”

    You have had many opportunities to educate both myself and anybody else who is bothering to still read this thread and have failed to take any of them.

    “The only way you learn that which you do not know is to do your homework on the science of astrology. Male or female, Terry, learning that which you do not know is the same for both genders.”

    I know enough about astrology to know that it would be a waste of time researching anything else about it. At its basic level, astrology makes its predictions based on the position of the stars, planets, sun and moon. Anything which claims a causal relationship between the relative positions of Alpha Arietis and Neptune with any event on Earth does not deserve to be called science.

    Finally, from your reply to Dave Worley

    “@Dave Worley, there are thousands of scientific studies on the Moon’s effects on the Earth, with direct correlations to the lifting of land, sea and air tides.

    The problem with some who continue to deny these facts….”

    I was taught about the moons effect on the land and sea over 40 years ago. If I needed to I could probably still calculate the forces involved (but it has been a long time). The gravitational effect of the moon on the Earth is not in dispute by anybody.

  333. Terry,

    I’m not here to ‘educate’ you. From your own comments:

    “I know enough about astrology to know that it would be a waste of time researching anything else about it…”

    Terry, you say you know enough of ‘astrology’, that it would be ‘a waste of time,’ then why spend any of your time here commenting?

    You sure have gone on at length on something that is ‘a waste of time.’

    Okay.

    Can we go now?

  334. @Dave Worley,

    Hi Dave, actually the causes are solar, lunar and planetary. I used these calculations to forecast the Japanese quake, which, according to my calculations was between 9.0 to 9.2 in magnitude. I expect the 8.9 magnitude figure to be revised by the USGS soon.

    The earthquake was caused by the transit of Uranus across the ecliptical plane it shares with the Earth along with the planetary configurations and the Sun’s increased electromagnetic flows.

    What resulted is an upheaval in the earth’s crust that split the sea-bed for hundreds of kilometres off the Japanese coast. The massive quake moved the entire country about eight (8) feet to the east, while shifting Earth’s axis about 10 cm.

    The Pacific plate has slipped under the Japanese plate, and the energy release sent a massive wall of sea-water via tsunami force onto Japan’s northeastern coast.

    My astrological calculations show that the massive magnitude of this earthquake will also become a factor in triggering other quakes around the world, mainly along the Ring of Fire. For instance, on March 12th, there was a 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Tonga.

    We must remember that there are fault lines already weakened, so the astrological configurations I’ve calculated indicate to me there are more large magnitude earthquakes on the way, this month and into April.

    We should hear of another quake in the southern hemisphere around March 19-21 with the lunar perigee just ahead.

    I am very concerned about southern California and have forecasted a major earthquake for the region into April. I’ve calculated that the epicenter will be about 23 miles south of Los Angeles, with a shallow 7.9 – 8.9 magnitude earthquake. It may be a long shaker, lasting as long as 4-5 minutes.

    April 4-9 have strong ratings on my astro-scale for significant seismic activity.

    I’ve issued a warning for California residents to initiate their emergency preparedness plans. There isn’t much time left before a major earthquake and aftershocks strike this region.

    [Reply: Enough astrology. This is a science site. Maybe the folks at climate progress, realclimate or skeptical science would enjoy your astrology posts. Feel free to continue commenting on non-astrology topics. ~dbs, mod.]

    [PS: I’ll reconsider if the specific predictions you made here happen as described.☺]

  335. Sure, like the ENSO I forecasted in advance, and the recent Japanese quake I forecasted using the same astrological science?

    I’m curious, just how many times do I have to forecast the climate, weather and earthquakes accurately before you feel the need to deem it a ‘science?’

  337. Re: Theodore

    “I’m curious, just how many times do I have to forecast the climate, weather and earthquakes accurately before you feel the need to deem it a ‘science?’”

    Fall 2010 – the season starts off with what “appears” to be another early Indian summer, but then Fall turns into a very wet, extended, and warmer-than-normal season w/ tropical air, torrential rains. This is going to be a longer-than-normal fall season that extends right into January 2011.

    Winter 2011 – arrives late, not starting until early Feb. 2011, colder than normal, La Nina phase. Mid-winter conditions will exist through March, and winter conditions will persist into April 2011, making for a colder, and later than normal Spring of 2011.

    Since you consider the above to be one of your accurate predictions of the weather it will take many such forecasts. In fact one of your accurate predictions would have to include the time and date of hell freezing over before those of us with a rational mind accept that the position of mercury could have any causal effect on earth beyond any infinitesimally small gravitational and electromagnetic effects.

  338. Terry,

    For you to assume that you are the only way with a ‘rational mind’ is the height of egotism and ignorance. No group, no matter how much they presume, can dictate to others what is to be called “Science,’ and what is not.

    We’ve just emerged from a period of time where anyone who said that humanity was not the cause of global warming was called ‘irrational,’ simply because they did not agree with anthropogenic global warming.

    I also suggest that you include my entire forecast, since you did not. You have a bad habit of snipping comments and paragraphs to then try to attack others. That is what many of the GW crowd likes to do, so they can ‘dummy things down’ in order to push their ideology on others.

    You will not be successful in bullying me, so do not even presume to try.

    Discontinue your bad habit of snipping comments, then asking interrogator-tone questions, followed by your uninformed opinions.

    That is not only intellectually dishonest Terry, also but rude and stupid.

    If you want to make any kind of ‘rational’ argument, then do not lower the discussion, but raise it, so that an honest debate on science can ensure, rather surface-feeder snarky snark comments which are clear signs of personal dispositions, bias and ideological egotism.

    Let’s get both oars in the water, shall we?

  339. Theodore,

    I do not assume I am the only “way” or even only one with a “rational mind” and my comments do not say or imply that either.

    “I also suggest that you include my entire forecast, since you did not.”

    I included the entire fall and winter sections of your forecast. Which relevant part did I miss out?

    “Discontinue your bad habit of snipping comments, then asking interrogator-tone questions, followed by your uninformed opinions.”

    Oops, snipped your comment again. Whats the problem with asking questions? Its how people learn. As for uninformed opinions, in case you haven’t noticed, this is the comment section of a blog. Its full of uninformed opinions, including mine. This is why I ask questions.

    “That is not only intellectually dishonest Terry, also but rude and stupid.”

    So far you have called me intellectually dishonest twice, ignorant, rude and stupid. Kindly desist from these unwarranted attacks.

    “If you want to make any kind of ‘rational’ argument, then do not lower the discussion, but raise it,”

    Hey, I’m not the one who’s name calling.

    Here’s your chance to convert me:
    Astrology makes the claim that the position of the planets has a causal effect on events and/or people and nations on Earth. It is basic science that in order for one object to influence another they must interact and there are four fundamental interactive forces. These are: gravitation, electromagnetism, strong nuclear and weak nuclear.

    Now Mercury, for example, at its closest approach is approximately 80million km from Earth and weighs approximately 3.3E23 kg. This means it exerts a gravitational force of approximately 3.44E-09 Newtons on me. This is about the same gravitational force as my dog (3.2E-09) when it stands next to me.
    Mercury’s magnetic field is only about 1% that of Earth so, given the distance, I am going to assume that the magnetic field generated by the electricity running through my mobile phone has more impact on me. I could dig out the equations (its an inverse squared relationship) and calculate it exactly but that would be a waste of time.
    I also think its safe to discount strong and weak nuclear forces.
    That means that none of the four fundamental forces can be responsible for any causal relationship between Mercury and events on Earth.
    Now my question to you is this: What is the force that is responsible for any causal relationship between Mercury and events on Earth? I don’t mind if you postulate the existence of a fifth fundamental force but you should adequately describe how it fits into quantum theory, how it propagates and how it is detected and measured.

  340. First, Terry –

    I seek to ‘convert’ no one. Think for yourself, but do not presuppose under the agies of bias what is a ‘science,’ and what is not. No one is qualified to take the term of ‘Science’ and define it so as to keep it only for themselves.

    Those who do this deserve no respect, for Science is larger than any single person, group or organization. Ideology has no place in science. Anyone who claims to use the term ‘science’ to exclude that which they are ignorant of, or show bias toward, are not in practice of ‘science’ in the least – but only practices ignorance.

    Science is about exploration and discovery. We learn by observation, study, objectivity. We do not learn simply inside the man-made lab, for you live in the largest laboratory there is – that of the Earth and the universe.

    We call it ‘Nature.” It is here that you will find the answers to your questions.

    As for Casual forces –

    Astrological observations over the centuries based on celestial configurations and their correlations on life are earth are extensive. There are centuries-old texts of empirical data. You can easily find them online.

    Here, you will find one of Isaac Newton’s mundane astrological science notebooks ->
    http://www.newtonproject.sussex.ac.uk/view/texts/normalized/NATP00001

    You are incorrect to say that the ‘past’ of science is not valid, that only today is valid.

    You are in serious error, for without the past efforts of others – the scientific disciplines people take for granted today would not exist.

    The mistake many conventional thinkers make on astrology is that they bring up the distance of celestial bodies and gravity when no one says that astrological forces are based on gravity and distance alone. There are many influences on the Earth, the primary one are solar, then lunar, then planetary.

    The Earth is NOT a single body apart from the solar system. The Earth is a member of the solar system, surrounded by magnetic and kinetic forces.

    Moreover, you are in error when you use small numbers and percentages to determine effect as any physicist knows that the smallest causes can, and do bring about big effects.

    The mundane astrologer Isaac Newton’s synthesis of the unification of celestial and terrestrial physics concludes that “the power of gravity … was not limited to a certain distance from the earth but that this power must extend much farther than was usually thought.”

    From Newton’s Notebooks –

    Systema Mundanum secundum Copernicum.

    Make a circumference for the Zodiack divide it into 12 signes or {illeg} Place Sun symbol in the centre. Make the centre of the earth almost 4 of Sun symbols diametars from his centre towards the Earth Aphelion i.e. {two} degrees 2m 13sec towards Cancer’s 7th degree.

    Make its orbe or circumference so wide as that the Sun’s diameter may be the 697th parte of it i.e. 31.min: Divide it into 365 equal p{arts} & let each parte stand for the Earth motion in one day 1 minute. or thus: Make the Earth symbol centre one degre 1min 6sec from the Sun’s.

    Make the circumference as before: take a new center two degrees 2min 13sec from Sun symbol on the same side. make a circumference about it & divide it into 365 parts, drawing lines from each opposite marke through the same centre.

    Then marke the places {on} the sphære of Earth symbol which those lines cut. & you have the Earths motion each day, & 1 min Make Mercuries centre 4degr 55min towar{ds} his Aphelion from the Sunn, Sun symbol being in Virgo symbol {illeg} i.e. Earth symbol being in Pisces symbol 15d.

    Put the Earth in Aries symbol: {illeg} the centre of Mercury symbol is in Pisces symbol 25d: 6m; & the utmost parte of his sphære reacheth to the 7th d{eg} 11th min of Pisces symbol it being 22degr: 50m distant from his centre.

    Divide it as you did the Earth’s in 88 parts by a circle whose centre is 9degr: 10m from Sun symbol toward his Aphelion (call this a divideing circle each part Mercury symbol passeth over in 23h. 59m.

    Or thus. Make Sun symbol the centre of his circumference. make his circumference so large as {illeg}{illeg}. make him an Epicicle the diameter {be}ing 9 degres 50m.

    Mercury symbol moves about his Epicicle {illeg} {illeg} 44 days {epicle} about Sun symbol in almost 88 days therefore {di}vide that circles into 88 parts & you have {his} motion each 23h 59min. divide his epicicle {in}to 44 parts & you have the like. but this will not solve the Phænomenon unles he be made to stand still in his Epicicle towards his Aphelion. & then the swiftnes of his motion in his Perihelion, & slownes Aphelion will not be solved.

    Place Venus her centre about 20 or 30 min dist from the centre of Sun symbol. her diameter is 42deg from her centre. &c By a Degre I understand the 360th {parte} of the sphære or circumference of the earth.

    Place the Moon 2deg 21min in her full & change from the earth.

    Place the centre of Mars distant from Sun symbol 6d 46min towards Virgo 0d. 8′. 2” let his circumference be made 98deg distant from his centre. Marke a new centre 13degr: 32m: distant from Sun symbol towards his Aphelion in Virgine 0d. 8′. 2”. & let the circumference of it divide the Spæ{re} of Mars symbol into 687 parts each parte being the sp{hære}{illeg} of Mars symbol his motion in a day.

    From another of Newton’s own notebooks –

    Theorem 1
    As ye difference twixt ye base & cath (in rectang: triang:) is to ye greater side:: so is ye difference of ye segm of ye base; to ye greater segmnt of ye base & perpendicular.

    Theorem 2.
    As ye difference twixt ye base & cathetus to ye less side:: so ye diff of ye segmts of ye base to ye lesse segment of ye base & perpendicular

    Theore 3d.
    base – Cathetus: hypotenusa:: :: greater seg: base – less seg base : base + Cathetus.

    Theor. 4.
    If wthin a circle be in|de|scribed an Ellipsis touching ye Circle in 2 opposite points if ye Diameter cut \it/ at right angle in any points except ye touch point yn a line drawn fm either touch point perpendicular to ye former diameter will bisect it & being produced will cut ye Sun symbol in ye other touch point & all ye lines drawne twixt ye Sun symbol & yt line parallell to yt diameter shall be dided {sic} by ye Ellipsis so as one segment {illeg}|sh|all bee to ye other as ye segments of ye semidiameter are to one another they being divided by ye same Ellip: let ab bee equall to 10 pts. eb = 157979 = Periph: & priph – Rad: Rad:: Rad: db. db = 175, 1938394. de = 18,1142067.

    To describe an Ellipsis –

    Let fe & gc be two lines ef make righ {sic} angles wth gc. let a point be taken in bd as at a & let yt point move along ye line gc. & d ye one end of ye line db move on ye line ef & ye other end b shall describe ye Ellipsi{illeg}|s| gbc. f.

    Let c & a b {sic} two fixed points about wch let a loose cord be put haveing both ends tyed together. as is signified by ye 3 lines cb. ba. ac. Strech it out wth another point as b. & keeping it so streched out draw ye point b about & it shall describe ye Ellipsis bd. Chartesij Dioptr

    Let ye line ae be infinitely extended in it take ye point o about ye line oc shall turne at ye point c in oc let ye \point c in ye/ line ab be fastened {illeg}|&| yn let a ye end of ye line ab move on ye line ae & oc turning round, each point of ye line ab betwixt ac will describe an Ellipsis whose transvers axis is equall to oc & parallell to ae but each point on ye other side c describes Ellipsis whose righ {sic} axis is equall to oc & parallell to ae

    Extend de both ways take ye lines ca & ab ab equall to one another fasten together at one end as at a. set ye other end of ca at ye point c in db. & let ye other end of ab slide on db. yn take a point in ab as o & turne ac about & it shall describe ye ellipsis dgoe Shooten in lib. 2d Cartesij Geometria:

    Cut ye cone abc so ye {sic} ye diam of ye section ed produced cute ye base of ye triangle ac produced wthout ye cone as at r & makes right angles wth gh ye base of ye sectio

    If eg be moved twixt ye lines ed & gd. a point in it as (θ) shall describe an ellipsis whose semi-axis ad is equall to bd & semiaxis dc = eb

    If dc revolve abute ye center d. & to ye other end b be fastend a triangle bca & db = ba = bc & ye angle a moves on ye line ad ye other end c will describe ye streigh {sic} line cd & ye angle cba = 2cd{illeg}|a| & a point in ye line (ca) as (e) shall describe an Ellipsis ehg whose diam 2dh =2dg = 2ec & ye other diameter conjugated to it is od & od = 4db x db – ec x ec – 2 ec x ea for op = ec. oq = ea. dp = 2db.

    & if in ye line bc be taken a point as s, it shall describe an ellipsis ye one diam: being 2ab + 2bs, ye other diam = 2cs.

    If o & a be ye foci & cp = oa & ca = op = it theire section in s shall describe an ellipsis

    If ab = bc = ci = ai = if or greater yn (if) & bh = fp & ac bisects ye angles bai. bci. yn if bh turne round ye intersections of bh & ac shall describ{e} an Ellipsis. & hi & i are ye foci.

    To describe a Parabola –

    Let bc fall perpendicular on ad & let c ye one end there of move perpendicular uppon ad a given line & if bc x k a given line be equall to ac x cd yn shall b ye other end of bc describe ye Parabola afd.

    Draw ah perpendicu{lar} to ap. & ab from ah parallell to ap divid{e} bh into equall pts {illeg}|as| bcdefgh. & divide ap into parts equall to ye former as iklmnop. draw lines cros to each part of ye lines ah & ap as cb. kc. ld. me. nf. &c wth half of each line descri{bing} a circle as brc wth 12 cb. from bu in ye poi{nt} cut by ye diameters of ye {illeg} circle draw lines perpendicular to ye diameter untill they reach ye circle from whose diameter they are drawne {illeg}|as| ye lines pw, qx, ry, sz, t&, u+.

    Erect those lines perpendicular to ye line bu as pTaurus symbol, qAries symbol, rGemini symbol, sCancer symbol, tLeo symbol, uVirgo symbol. & by ye end of those lines draw a line & it shall be a parabola . a{illeg}|s| bTaurus symbolAries symbolGemini symbolCancer symbolLeo symbol

    If abc be a cone: de (ye diameter of ye Section fgd) parallell to ac: & fg (ye base there{illeg}|of|) cutting bc at right angles yn is ye section dfg a Parab

    Make db perpendicular to ef on ye center b let ye right angled figure pbgh turne. Let gh move perpendicularly on ef ever intersecting ef & bh in one point yn pbgh moveing rownd ye intersections made twixt pg gh describe ye parabola qbg.

    If ab = bd = do = ao is greater then ac & ac = cs ye corner (a) fasten{ed} to ye focus (a) . & ye line de fastened to ye corner d & moveing perpendicularly on|{r}| on sd & ye line boe crossing ye corners b & o. yn ye line boe & de at theire intersections shall describe a Parab & ye line boe always toucheth ye Parabola in (e) &c

    If (d) be ye focus od = oe ye ruler fc = to ye thred fad & thred fastened to ye ruler at f & to ye focus d & ye ruler move perpendic to ce & parallell to de. yn ye parteing of ye thred from ye ruler as at (a) shall describe a Parabola.

    To describe an Hyperbole –

    Let fa fall on ag suppose at right angles let one en{illeg}|d| of ye line lg move up {illeg}|&| downe in ye line fa & towards ye other end let it cut ye line ga in g. let mp keepe parrallel to df haveing one end p moveing in ye line fa but yet keeping an equall distance fro l ye i|e|nd of gl. yt is let ye triangle npl be immutable. let yn ye lines mp & gl thus move to & fro & theire intersections shall describe an parabola Hyperbola. & ye rectangle mad de x e de x ea = ic x cb = qo x op. Cartes Geom:

    ffasten a pegg as at a & another as at b upon wch let ye line de be turned at ye pin a fasten one end of a cord & ye other at e ye end of ye line de. yn streching ye cord from a & e wth ye pin c turne de about & ye pin c will slip towards e & describe 12 ye Hyper: oce

    {If} the rectangle twixt ad & db is equall to ye rectangle twixt ae & ec {illeg}|{so}| yt each point c in ye Hyperb: bc is found by makeing ec = ad x dbae or ae = ad x dbec. also be x ce = be x da – db x ec

    Cut ye cone abc so yt ye diater {sic} of ye section er produced cuteth one side of ye Cone bc produced as at d. ye base thereof gh cutteth ac ye base of ye triang: abc a {sic} right angles.

    If (of) touch ye Hyperb: & (as) be it{illeg}|s| transverse diam: & (gb) keepe parallel to (eo) & (cag) aways pass through (a). ye vertex of ye parab Hyperb. & (bc) be always in ye line (fh) fastend to (gb) & equall to fd = de = fh4. yn ye lines (agc) & (gb) moveing by theire intersection shall describe an Hyperbola whose asymtotes are oea, fe; eb, eb, & wx is a right line conjugate to ye transverse diameter (as.) viz: it is ye right diameter

    If dk = er be (latus transversum) & de = kr, be latus rectum yn shall is sd = sr = se = sk = sa = sx. at (a) & (x) faten {sic} 2 pins on wch let ye (acbp, xobq) revolve, & if ac = ox = zi = dk = er, & co = ax yn ye intersection of ye lines cabp, & qbox (when they move) shall describe a |Hyperb| Parabola whose focus is a, & ye opposite Hyperbola (whose focus is x is described {illeg}|by| ye same lines after qbox, esk & cabp are parallell

    If de = dc = ex = cx is not lesse yn ix = az & 2 of theire ends loose pind together at (e) & 2 at (c) on wch 2 corners lyes ye line (coe) two of ye theire ends are loosely pinnd on ye focus (x) ye last two are pind on ye line (adp) at (d) soe yt ye ruler adp being pine|n|d to ye focus (a), ad = zi yn ye intersections of ye lines (adp, coe) describe ye Hyperbola oiq. & after they are parallell they shall describe ye opposite Hyperbola hzk.

    The Asymptotes aq, an, & (m) point y|i|n ye Hyperbola draw mq || an. & mn || aq. Then draw en at a venture & make er = {illeg} \mc/ || er & r shall bee a point in ye Hyperbola

    If ye position of ye Asymptotes (ad) (ab) bee given & any point as (c) in ye Hyperbola. then draw {cbfu}{illeg} ucbf || ad. ud || ab || fg making bf = bu = 4bc. Then at a venter draw bewh, through ye point b. & make ak = fh = uw Or dw = bk & from ye point k draw ke, wch shall touch ye Hyperpola {sic}. in n, if kn = ne.

    The foci \(a, d)/ & (c) a point in one Hyerbo{la} given to describe them.

    Draw ac, cd, fro the given point c to the foci, yn upo the center c wth any radius ce describe ye circle erf. soe yt ec = ef. yn wth ye Rad ae & df upon ye centers a & d describe ye circles hep fhp their points of intersection p, h, shall bee in ye hyperbola. The intermediate distance twixt divers points thus found may bee completed wth by ye helpe of tangnt lines or circles or a steady hand.

    The observation of celestial inclinations (astrophysical) to those on Earth (geophysical) connected physical events with mathematics, angles, light, sound (music of the spheres) electromagnetism and gravity. These are the kinds of calculations I apply in forecasting via astrological means.

    This is clearly seen in the works of the mundane astrologers Ptolemy, Copernicus, Kepler, and Galileo, among others. This reached its fuller expression in Newton’s dynamics.

    The Universal Gravitation Law & The Planetary Laws Of Motions discovered by these astrologers, along with the three laws of motion and the calculus, formed a complete Newtonian approach to quantifying and calculating the motion, inclinations and effects of everything from the smallest atom to the largest planet. Telsa and Einstein based their work on all this and took it yet to another level.

    So let’s not diss the ‘past of science’ – astrological or not – so easily, shall we?

  341. > I seek to ‘convert’ no one. Think for yourself, but do not presuppose under
    > the agies of bias what is a ‘science,’ and what is not. No one is
    > qualified to take the term of ‘Science’ and define it so as to keep it
    > only for themselves.
    And at no point have I attempted to define the term ‘Science’ and keep it for myself. It is already well defined.

    > Those who do this deserve no respect, for Science is larger than any single
    > person, group or organization. Ideology has no place in science. Anyone
    > who claims to use the term ‘science’ to exclude that which they are
    > ignorant of, or show bias toward, are not in practice of ‘science’ in the
    > least – but only practices ignorance.
    I am excluding astrology from science, not through ignorance, but through knowledge. I doubt you would find any scientists who would include it.

    >
    > As for Casual forces –
    >
    > [snipped bits unrelated to causal forces]
    >
    > The mistake many conventional thinkers make on astrology is that they bring
    > up the distance of celestial bodies and gravity when no one says that
    > astrological forces are based on gravity and distance alone. There are
    > many influences on the Earth, the primary one are solar, then lunar, then
    > planetary.
    You are claiming here that the sun, moon and planets have an impact outside of the 4 interactive forces (gravitational, electromagnetic, weak and strong nuclear). You are in fact claiming that the sun, moon and planets are a force within themselves. Now we are getting somewhere.
    How are these forces measured? How do they propagate, is it via photons, gluons, bosons, gravitons or some other elementary particle? Does this force preserve parity or is it asymmetric? Does its magnitude follow an inverse square relationship with distance? Is the speed of propagation constant through all mediums? Can it be diffracted, reflected or generated? etc. These are basic questions which should have answers.

    > Moreover, you are in error when you use small numbers and percentages to
    > determine effect as any physicist knows that the smallest causes can, and
    > do bring about big effects.
    Err, the calculations are correct. That is part of what scientists do. They do not just say “Mercury will cause you to move to the left today” they calculate the gravitational effect and say “Mercury’s gravitational effect on you is so small today that we can not distinguish its effect from that of a small dog.”.

    > [much irrelevant detail on how to draw an astrological chart deleted]
    As I’ve said before. It does not matter that astrology was considered a science in past centuries. It does not matter who practiced it. It does not matter what its practitioners discovered. Modern science does not consider it to be a science. If you wish to change that then you have to do more than say “It was in the past” or “Isaac Newton studied it and here are his notebooks”. You need to quantify the forces you are postulating exist.

  343. Have no problem with that, but if you are to continue to remind us of this, then I suggest you do the same with Terry, who keeps bringing up astrology.

    If I am to respond, then I suggest moderator also remind her as well until whomever deems what is a ‘science’ and what is not a ‘science’ is able to descend from the heavens to correct us all on the matter.

  344. i hope you see the way of the clowns and the divine way we live all hail reznov and the illusion that is ur face
    OM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM AND THE PROPHET GOD MASON WITH ADVISOR HUDSON

  345. im sorry guys about that my thoughts on the japanese disaster are that this is to be expected on a country in that geographical position and in a country so prone to disaster they should not be allowed nuclear power plants i hope you agree with this more than the last comment and come on terry lighten up

  346. to the large amount of people in the affected areas i send my condolences to you sincerely i do

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