Cause and effect, or correlation not causation?
Press release Via Eurekalert:
Climate change causing demise of lodgepole pine in western North America
CORVALLIS, Ore. – Lodgepole pine, a hardy tree species that can thrive in cold temperatures and plays a key role in many western ecosystems, is already shrinking in range as a result of climate change – and may almost disappear from most of the Pacific Northwest by 2080, a new study concludes.
Including Canada, where it is actually projected to increase in some places, lodgepole pine is expected to be able to survive in only 17 percent of its current range in the western parts of North America.
The research, just published in the journal Climatic Change, was done by scientists from the College of Forestry at Oregon State University and the Department of Forest Resource Management at the University of British Columbia. It was based on an analysis of 12,600 sites across a broad geographic range.
Lodgepole pine ecosystems occupy large areas following major fires where extreme cold temperatures, poor soils and heavy, branch-breaking snows make it difficult for other tree species to compete. This includes large parts of higher elevation sites in Oregon, Washington, the Rocky Mountains and western Canada. Yellowstone National Park is dominated by this tree species.
However, warming temperatures, less winter precipitation, earlier loss of snowpack and more summer drought already appear to be affecting the range of lodgepole pine, at the same time increasing the infestations of bark beetles that attack this tree species.
The researchers concluded that some of these forces have been at work since at least 1980, and by around 2020 will have decreased the Pacific Northwest range of lodgepole pine by 8 percent. After that, continued climatic changes are expected to accelerate the species’ demise. By 2080, it is projected to be almost absent from Oregon, Washington and Idaho, some of the areas facing the most dramatic changes.
“For skeptics of climate change, it’s worth noting that the increase in vulnerability of lodgepole pine we’ve seen in recent decades is made from comparisons with real climatic data, and is backed up with satellite-observations showing major changes on the ground,” said Richard Waring, an OSU distinguished professor emeritus of forest science.
“This is already happening in some places,” Waring said. “Bark beetles in lodgepole pine used to be more selective, leaving the younger and healthier trees alone.
“Now their populations and pheromone levels are getting so high they can more easily reach epidemic levels and kill almost all adult trees,” he said. “Less frost, combined with less snow favors heavier levels of bark beetle infestation. We’re already seeing more insect attack, and we project that it will get worse.”
Some species are adapted to lower elevations, experts say, but lodgepole pine is predominately a sub-alpine tree species. Its new foliage can handle frost down to temperatures below freezing, it easily sheds snow that might break the branches of tree species more common at lower elevations, and it can survive in marginal soils.
But it makes these adaptations by growing more slowly, and as the subalpine environment becomes less harsh, lodgepole pine may increasingly be displaced by other species such as Douglas-fir, grand fir and ponderosa pine, which are also more drought-tolerant.
As lodgepole pine continues to decline, one of the few places on the map where it’s still projected to survive by 2080 is Yellowstone National Park – a harsh, high-elevation location – and a few other sub-alpine locations.
The species historically has played important ecological and cultural roles. It provided long, straight and lightweight poles often sought for tepees by Native American tribes, was later harvested commercially for poles and fence materials, and offers cover and habitat for big game animals.
Funding for this research was provided by NASA and the Natural Sciences Engineering and Research Council of Canada. A co-author of the study was Nicholas Coops with the University of British Columbia.
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This kind of article is misleading because it omits some of the root causes of the beetle problem. Excessive and long term artificial suppression of forest fires are partly to blame.
The forests are now older growth, with older trees being more susceptible to the beetles, tree density has become unnaturally high making migration of the bugs easy and more widespread, and in some cases, unusual wind events spread the bugs.
While milder winters haven’t helped to mitigate the infestations, blaming the massive infestations entirely on climate change is inaccurate and only part of the story.
Efforts have been underway in the Tahoe basin to bring tree density back down to more typical levels of trees per acre consistent with those prior to human fire suppression. Natural fires helped maintain healthier forests, and the lodgepoles fall into the category.
There are many papers that address long term drought in the Great Basin region, where conditions similar to those being blamed now were purely natural variability existed, and the forests survived…along with the beetles.
I smell a bunch of speculative CRAP here! The little environmentalists-cum-foresters in the universities have now pushed “Preservation” (NOT to be confused with Conservation (wise use)) of the forests to the point where the forests are now subject to all sorts of preventable disasters, such as: fire, bark beetles, dwarf mistletoe, and other diseases. It is VERY telling that these problems DO NOT OCCUR ON PRIVATE FOREST LANDS, ONLY ON GOV’T “MANAGED” LANDS! NEGLECT is the operative word for the USFS, USGS, and other bumbling federal agencies. Some states have decent programs, on the other hand….. But, then, the poor federal beggars no longer have any money to really MANAGE the forests, anymore, since timber sales have become almost non-existant. If they see an insect attack, they just watch it, because there is no money to do anything; if it happens on private lands, the damaged trees are cut down and burned, cancelling the “crisis.” Another example of how the Government takes care of things. LOL.
(I also have a degree in forestry, FWIW)
All science is correlation. When a correlate becomes popular, by its frequent appearance, we promote it to cause.
Of course no mention of the bugs other annual nemesis, forest fire. When the forests arround Prince George BC burns the top soil will be scorched, thank the BC govt for all these years of fire suppression. Oh yes its manmade climate change, when govt prevents fire from performing its natural function. The traditional definition of a expert does not need any update, drip under pressure or knowing more and more about very little and blind to the knowledge of this ignorance.
In Japan too, years ago, rumor said that the decline of trees (pines in particular) was due to acid rain. However, these days they say that the main culprit is either tree bugs or air pollution due to motorization, or both. Fortunately(?) few people talk about global warming for this sort of topic (maybe Japan is still behind of the US?).
I live in British Columbia and have been aware of the problem for many years. It could have been prevented by allowing local loggers to harvest the older infected trees but the government of the day needed to do studies.
The real reason for the outbreak is that we were so good at puting out forest fires that trees that would have normally burned, destroying the beetles inside ,were left to grow old and provide for more reproduction capacity for the bugs.
These trees drop needles and pine cones every year. The accumulated fuel under an old tree burns so hot as to incinerate the whole tree.
So how warm has it gotten in lodge pole country?
-Published in the Journal “Climate Change” *sigh*
They talk about this a lot here in BC. One thing I remember is the beetle tends to target older growth trees (As in, order than 90 years roughly), so I don’t accept that it could cause the species to collapse completely. It may kill off much of the older generation which would open things up for natural selection to take place for the seedlings however, and that is what I am more inclined to believe. I am going out on a limb here, but there are other examples around the world of long scale cycles with trees and other plants that can cause rapid die offs followed by rebounds decades later.
The beetle is a part of a cycle just like warm and cold. Back in the 90’s I fought huge
pine fueled fires all over the west. At little effort of forestry (yes including fire) and the
problem is greatly reduced. As mentioned above, this is a quick growing fire prone
tree. It is part of a: FIRE ECOLOGY period. It does what it does…
I work in the forestry business in BC, and I have heard this nugget quite a bit. Too bad people do not acknowledge that Lodgepole pine is short lived species that is very pest prone. It’s mission in life is reproduce in astonishing numbers, grow extremely fast, and then die out after a relatively short life. It’s a great strategy in areas with frequent forest fires. However, in our attempt to manage this species, humans have held vast tracts of old pine stands on the stump until we are ready to harvest them in an orderly fashion. This has resulted in huge areas of old and relatively pure pine stands which have built up enormous reservoirs of pests (beetles). Add in a few relatively mild winters and we have a recipe for disaster. Mother nature gave us a spanking! It’s way too easy to blame “climate change” and ignore our management practices as the true source of this outbreak.
Look! Earth warming!
I’m looking at this thermometer its about the same as it was….
Look! Lodge Pole Pine disapearing!
Well, we put in all those fire suppression programs, now about this thermo-..
Look! For skeptics this should be obvious! Earth warming!
But the thermometer readings are about the same as-…
Look! Skeptic stupid! Can’t see evidence! Lodge Pole Pines dying!
Sure, but I’m tracking the temperature here and
Look! Skeptics don’t understand science! Bad genes!
But its colder this year than ever before….
Look! Colder! See? Earth warming!
But…huh? what?
Look! Poor upbringing!
My upbringing was just fine, now about this thermometer…
Look! Skeptics threatening violence!
I did not…
Look! Denying it too!
Are you kidding me? Are you nuts?!
Look! Ad Hominem Attack! Ad Hominem Attack!
Folks, there’s a way to win this argument, I just haven’t a clue what it is.
“For skeptics of climate change” …
I don’t think anyone here is skeptical about the fact that the climate changes. Skeptical about “Anthropogenic Global Warming” defiantly, but not climate change. They keep moving the goal posts.
The premise is made that “warming temperatures, less winter precipitation, earlier loss of snowpack and more summer drought already appear to be affecting the range of lodgepole pine” … but has the region actually experienced “warming temperatures, less winter precipitation, earlier loss of snowpack and more summer drought”? I live nearby and my experience doesn’t bear this out, although I have not kept detailed records. Maybe someone has.
The prof explains “For skeptics of climate change, it’s worth noting that the increase in vulnerability of lodgepole pine we’ve seen in recent decades is made from comparisons with real climatic data, and is backed up with satellite-observations showing major changes on the ground” … but how do compare “vulnerability” to climate? Shouldn’t you compare climate data to climate data?
It sounds like smoke and mirrors to me.
You could compare the number of lodgepole pines before 1980 to the number now, and if there are fewer now then yes you might say the species is “vulnerable”. But you can’t just leap from that to “climate change did it” without showing that the climate, in fact, changed, and that nothing else did.
Maybe they have data, I guess I’ll have to pursue it and find out.
Here we go again.
All species, especially warm and cuddly ones like polar bears, are going to be in danger of extinction, except pests, which are going to thrive.
Of course, that’s how DNA works in the moronosphere !!
Pining
This is neither corrolation or causation. The 1/2 degree Pine Beetle explosion isn’t selling with me. And we’ve had two unusually cold years already recently. This looks like a job for a good insecticide. Spray spray spray, and move on.
Lodgepole pines are short lived ‘pioneer species’ that rapidly sprout up after fires or logging. If you walk under stands of dead lodgepole you will see spruce, fir and aspen taking its place. If you could travel back in time to Summit County, Colorado before the miners arrived you would see a patchwork quilt of burned areas, thick lodgepole stands and old growth fir and spruce stands. Unfortunately the miners logged it all and it was replaced with Lodgepole which has now reached its old age and is now being consumed by bugs due to fire supression. Thank you bugs, I hate lodgepole.
Furthermore:
“For skeptics of climate change, it’s worth noting blah blah blah …… ”
Who’s he talking about ?? Is there even one human being on the planet who is a skeptic of climate change ??
I live in pine beetle country and I’ve payed close attention to this issue.
• clear-cutting during mining booms dramatically damaged the forest
• a seven-stage healing process begins with lodgepole pine domination
• cold-spells can wipe out the pine beetles ( supposedly 5 consecutive nights @ur momisugly 25 below )
• localized beetle infestations used to be stopped by lightning-fires ( now we “manage” forest fires )
• air and water pollution are part of the equation ( see also : documentary “What in the World are They Spraying” )
*** the climate has never NOT been “changing” … that is the default condition of Earth ***
As if we didn’t have enough to worry about.
I was just getting accommodated to 3 meter sea level rises.
“If you could travel back in time to Summit County, Colorado before the miners arrived you would see a patchwork quilt of burned areas, thick lodgepole stands and old growth fir and spruce stands. Unfortunately the miners logged it all and it was replaced with Lodgepole which has now reached its old age and is now being consumed by bugs due to fire supression.”
Is this just a Colorado pipe-dream, or do you have some data to support your “hypothesis??” Old-growth fir? In Colorado? What kind of “fir,” sir?
2080 now? Next 2120, 2150…
I spent part of the summer of 1969 spraying lodgepole pines for pine beetles in Island Park, south of Yellowstone–which time was way before 1980! It was recognized to be a major problem before anybody could conceive that Global Warming was the problem–Hey, wasn’t that about the time they were so horribly concerned about the next Ice Age?
Revisionist science is all I can say. (My least preferred “pine” is the lodgepole–I wish they’d all be eliminated so better species of evergreens could take over. I consider the lodgepole to be a weed.)
Personally,
Rattus Norvegicus says:
February 28, 2011 at 5:52 pm
You mean, like, the fact that this happens every few hundred years? Or that there are more older trees now than there normally are largely due to mining in the late 1800s? Beetles love older trees and we did a good job of singling out the lodgepole as the most dominant tree in the NW forests. Give ’em food and they will eat.
Mark
Steven Rasey had a photo of the pine beetle kill at the east portal of the Eisenhower Tunnel in Colorado (elevation 11,000 feet). If you drive east about 20 miles at an elevation of 8500 to 9000 feet (where it is much warmer) , you don’t see the bark beetle kill. Also, there was a severe outbreak of beetle kill in the late seventies. It ran its course and the forest recovered.