New NASA satellite data indicate the current La Niña event in the eastern Pacific has remained strong during November and December 2010.
A new Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 satellite image of the Pacific Ocean that averaged 10 days of data was just released from NASA. The image, centered on Dec. 26, 2010, was created at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, Calif.
“The solid record of La Niña strength only goes back about 50 years and this latest event appears to be one of the strongest ones over this time period,” said Climatologist Bill Patzert of JPL. “It is already impacting weather and climate all around the planet.”
“Although exacerbated by precipitation from a tropical cyclone, rainfalls of historic proportion in eastern Queensland, Australia have led to levels of flooding usually only seen once in a century,” said David Adamec, Oceanographer at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. “The copious rainfall is a direct result of La Niña’s effect on the Pacific trade winds and has made tropical Australia particularly rainy this year.”
The new image depicts places where the Pacific sea surface height is near-normal, higher (warmer) than normal and lower (cooler) than normal. The cooler-than normal pool of water that stretches from the eastern to the central Pacific Ocean is a hallmark of a La Niña event.
Earth’s ocean is the greatest influence on global climate. Only from space can we observe our vast ocean on a global scale and monitor critical changes in ocean currents and heat storage. Continuous data from satellites like OSTM/Jason-2 help us understand and foresee the effects of ocean changes on our climate and on climate events such as La Niña and El Niño.
The latest report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) noted that “A moderate-to-strong La Niña continued during December 2010 as reflected by well below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.” The CPC report said that La Niña is expected to continue well into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.
Read the latest ENSO forecast here (PDF)
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
In comment http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/15/nasa-la-nina-has-remained-strong/#comment-575375 Bob Tisdale says…
> What appears to be agreement between ENSO and
> the Solar Cycles looks better when one uses NINO3.4
> SST (not anomalies). But the apparent relationship
> falls apart when one goes back further in time.
My forecast for ENSO34 remaining negative until 2013 is relatively short-term, so it still stands.
Mooloo says:
January 16, 2011 at 2:13 pm
“levels of flooding usually only seen once in a century”
Why do people persist with this incredibly poor way of describing probabilities? It’s rubbish on almost all accounts.
I agree that media attempts to report statistical information are generally worse than useless.
If you’re from the UK – do you remember some years ago the “vague news” slot on the Mark and Lard BBC radio 1 early afternoon show? A good description of climate reporting.
Caleb says:
January 16, 2011 at 4:46 am
Audacious Idea #2
I think your idea of a triggering role for THC and upwelling is quite reasonable. Indeed, to propose that the deep ocean and THC had no role in ENSO would be even more audacious.
Just the facts,
Thanks for the links.
I wish I could return the favor, but I confess my “audacious ideas” are simply thoughts that come into my head after pouring over maps and data.
For something like five years I’ve been looking for an overview which integrates all the various climate topics, but one thing I notice is a sort of myopia among researchers. They are so focused on one topic, (for example arctic sea ice, or ultraviolet rays and ozone, or the ENSO) that they fail to link their topic to others. When I ask questions I get silence. Therefore I’ve developed the habit of phrasing my questions as a theory. It may be a bad habit, however on the web you are fairly certain of getting a response.
It will take me a while to digest all your interesting links. However already I’ve found stuff I never saw before.
For example, in your very first link, scroll down to the video showing the Agulhas Current, but rather than looking at the current look up the west coast of Africa to the mouth of the Congo River. About a sixth of the way through the video some sort of shock-wave occurs, and drives a slosh of warm water right down the west coast to Namibia. What the heck caused that shock wave?
That is the sort of odd detail I notice, and attempt to incorporate into an overview. At times I think an overview might be impossible. Our world is simply too complex, amazing and wonderful. However it is fun to observe and marvel.
Edbhoy, I agree with you that thermometers are better proxies than tree rings. Fewer variables for a start. Tree ring growth is determined by more than the temperature; pollution, light levels, moisture levels etc. Measuring temperatures using thermal expansion of course has its variables, pressure being the most obvious. Once you correct for the pressure then sea level rise has been fairly consistant, even in recent years. http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_ib_ns_global.jpg
La Nina may remain strong but here in Montana we have had typical El Nino weather (except for the extreme eastern portions of the state). I live at the north entrance to Yellowstone at an elevation of 5280 feet. The temperature hasn’t dropped below 40 in the last 36 hours. We have been in the mid to upper 30s for that 2-1/2 weeks. The most significant snow has fallen prior to January (and most of that the week before Thanksgiving). It rained steadily yesterday in both Bozeman and Livingston. The snow has vanished from the Livingston area. Billings is predicting mid to upper 30s for the next ten days.
I have no idea what these predictions of above normal snowfall and below normal temps are based on but they’re all wet (excuse the pun). This winter is exactly like last winter. So I see no difference between a El Nino year and a La Nina year.
Caleb says: January 17, 2011 at 12:39 am
“What the heck caused that shock wave?”
Not sure, if you haven’t already, I’d recommend reading up on Ekman Transport;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ekman_transport
as wind is an important factor to account for. Also take a look at this Cold Water Upwelling Animation;
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010000/a010019/upwelling.mpg
and associated background;
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010000/a010019/index.html
Ocean Convection at High Altitudes – Normal Condition – Animation;
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010000/a010092/salt.mpg
and associated background;
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010000/a010092/index.html
Ocean Convection at High Altitudes – Fresh Condition – Animation;
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010000/a010093/fresh.mpg
and associated background;
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010000/a010093/index.html
Atlantic Circulation Animation;
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010000/a010031/oceanconvey.mpg
and associated background and;
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010000/a010031/index.html
La Nina Retreat Animation;
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010000/a010048/ninaRetreat.mpg
and associated background:
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010000/a010048/index.html
“Our world is simply too complex, amazing and wonderful. However it is fun to observe and marvel.”
Yes, take a look at this Global Sea Surface Temperature – 12 Month Animation;
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/sst12m.gif
and note the tentacles/tendrils of cold water that begin dancing across the Equatorial Pacific in May as the La Nina takes hold. Now look in the same location and timeframe on this Global Sea Surface Salinity – 12 Month Animation;
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/sss12m.gif
and note that you can still see the essence of the same tentacles/tendrils.
Also, on the salinity animation, watch the pool of lower salinity water that forms along the Northeastern coast of South America around March and continues through August. Maybe Amazon River output, maybe atmospheric/wind associated with the onset of La Nina, maybe otherwise. There is still so much to be learned…
“At times I think an overview might be impossible.”
I think a reasonably accurate overview of Earth’s climate system will likely take many more generations of measurement and research to develop. However, I think we are making good forward progress, and I am hopeful that we’ll be able to get beyond the CAGW debacle in the next few years, thus this decade could hold an array of important discoveries that will help reshape our understanding of how Earth’s climate system works.
Folks, I would like to make an interesting observation, to which I think somebody might validly spend some thinking time, my understanding of Global Climate drivers being somehat limited. 1974 was a very strong LaNina year and it persisted into 1975. In Australia this meant floods in Brisbane at higher levels than recently seen and then into 1975 Northen Australia experienced several serious Tropical Cyclones including the Infamous Cyclone Tracey that flattened Darwin.
However, my observation is what then happened in 1976 – because as a young high school student in England, I was swimming at Easter because it was so hot! Since this time the World experienced a step change in Climate that “is unequivocal”.
My question is – were those events linked? That is, did the strong La Nina lead to a “recalibration” of the Worlds Climate? Or was there some underlying oceanic cycle (say) that caused both? Are they linked?
And then, of course, given that we are now experiencing a 1 in 100 La Nina, what happens next.
As far as I am concerned El Nino and La Nina mean the same thing in Montana. Livingston, MT high on Sunday, January 16th was 51 degrees. All the snow is gone. North Entrance to Yellowstone…haven’t been below freezing for about a week now. It rained all day today. Butte, MT 42 degrees today. Forecast for Billings, MT is for mid to upper 30s for the remainder of the week. Rain in Butte, Bozeman, Livingston, Great Falls, Helena and Billings. It is March in mid-January with no end in sight.
Joe Bastardi over at Accu Weather is predicting the coldest January since 1985. Good luck with that forecast Joe. Not much of a winter in the Northwest or the Northern Rockies for quite a while. Global cooling?….I don’t think so.