![509652main_lanina_stronger_1[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/509652main_lanina_stronger_11.jpg?resize=640%2C462&quality=83)
New NASA satellite data indicate the current La Niña event in the eastern Pacific has remained strong during November and December 2010.
A new Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 satellite image of the Pacific Ocean that averaged 10 days of data was just released from NASA. The image, centered on Dec. 26, 2010, was created at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, Calif.
“The solid record of La Niña strength only goes back about 50 years and this latest event appears to be one of the strongest ones over this time period,” said Climatologist Bill Patzert of JPL. “It is already impacting weather and climate all around the planet.”
“Although exacerbated by precipitation from a tropical cyclone, rainfalls of historic proportion in eastern Queensland, Australia have led to levels of flooding usually only seen once in a century,” said David Adamec, Oceanographer at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. “The copious rainfall is a direct result of La Niña’s effect on the Pacific trade winds and has made tropical Australia particularly rainy this year.”
The new image depicts places where the Pacific sea surface height is near-normal, higher (warmer) than normal and lower (cooler) than normal. The cooler-than normal pool of water that stretches from the eastern to the central Pacific Ocean is a hallmark of a La Niña event.
Earth’s ocean is the greatest influence on global climate. Only from space can we observe our vast ocean on a global scale and monitor critical changes in ocean currents and heat storage. Continuous data from satellites like OSTM/Jason-2 help us understand and foresee the effects of ocean changes on our climate and on climate events such as La Niña and El Niño.
The latest report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) noted that “A moderate-to-strong La Niña continued during December 2010 as reflected by well below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.” The CPC report said that La Niña is expected to continue well into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.
Read the latest ENSO forecast here (PDF)
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A strong La Nina would explain flooding in Sri Lanka and Australia and Brazil, due to coupling with the PDO/ADO which are both in a negative phase lowering temperatures in other parts of the globe.
para 5 ¨ height¨
Should that be ´temp?´
The maps provide excellent illustration of the La Nina phenomenon, but are purely qualitative.
So it is very difficult to relate the current La Nina to prior such without additional measurements.
What are these measures and how are they summed over an ocean basin to determine the scope of the event?
Given the spotty quality control seen in other relevant data collections, how is this segment handled?
Presumably the lower surface elevation measured in the above charts reflects the greater density of colder water, so that the water column has similar pressure as at spots where the surface water is warmer.
“levels of flooding usually only seen once in a century” ?????
Suggest a look at Roger Pielke Jnr.:
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2011/01/brisbane-floods-in-historical-context.html
….and global temperatures still keep climbing, global ice area is reaching the lowest level recorded…..and yet AGW is still being , 2010 was the equal warmest, and wettest year recorded, we are only two weeks into 2011 and extreme weather events have affected Brazil, Sri Lanka and Queensland….hmmmmmm
The ENSO index reading from Nov/Dec is -1.519.
Next update is Feb. 5th.
“Earth’s ocean is the greatest influence on global climate”. And how does the ocean get its heat? From the CO2 driven atmospheric warming? But water has ~3,000 times the heat capacity (per unit mass) of air. I think the pseudo-scientists have their independent and dependent variables reversed.
This must be caused by AGC (Anthropogenic Global Cooling) caused by aerosols from dirty coal power plants in China. LOL
According to the monitoring graph on WUWTs ENSO page, this La Nina isn’t even as strong as the 2008 one (at least, yet. . .it could take another leg down).
Are they hyperventilating over there, or is there something about “strength” not reflected in the monitoring graph?
“Although exacerbated by precipitation from a tropical cyclone, rainfalls of historic proportion in eastern Queensland, Australia have led to levels of flooding usually only seen once in a century,”
I suppose 1974 was the last century, in his defence
The following Sea Surface animations, especially the longer timescale temperature ones, do a good job at demonstrating the large changes that have occurred due to the La Nina event:
Global Tropical Sea Surface Temperature – 3 Months
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml
Global Sea Surface Temperature – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/sst30d.gif
Global Sea Surface Temperature – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/sst12m.gif
Global Surface Currents over Temperature – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/ctemp30d.gif
Global Surface Currents over Temperature – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/ctemp12m.gif
Global Surface Currents over Height – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/cssh30d.gif
Global Surface Currents over Height – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/cssh12m.gif
Global Surface Currents over Speed – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/cspd30d.gif
Global Surface Currents over Speed – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/cspd12m.gif
Global Sea Surface Height – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/ssh30d.gif
Global Sea Surface Height – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/ssh12m.gif
Global Sea Surface Salinity – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/sss30d.gif
Global Sea Surface Salinity – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/sss12m.gif
Sources:
Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) at Stennis Space Center (SSC):
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Weather Services (NWS), Climate Prediction Center:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Anthony
Is it possible to include some of the global sea surface animations on the WUWT “ENSO/Sea Level/Sea Surface Temperature Page”? I think it should become a more encompassing WUWT Ocean Reference Page.
Am I right to think water from La Nina’s primary pool is being drawn into the Gulf of Mexico and, from there, is being drawn into the Gulf Stream, which then sends it by express delivery straight to Great Britain? Is the Gulf Stream currently (pun intended!) impacting NW Europe in a way that is the inverse of the impact for which it is famous?
rushmike
Severe weather and La Nina? Who’d a thunk?
http://www.mapsofworld.com/referrals/weather/severe-weather-conditions/la-nina.html
“Although exacerbated by precipitation from a tropical cyclone, rainfalls of historic proportion in eastern Queensland, Australia have led to levels of flooding usually only seen once in a century,”
=========================================================
Before global warming, there were twice as many floods….
….global warming has cut the amount of floods in half
Between 1840 and 1900, 60 years, there were five floods much higher.
Have led to levels of flooding usually only seen 8 times in a century.
All levity aside, is there a claimed relationship between man-made CO2 and a La Niña event that can be gleaned from climate models?
How do the models, which by my (limited) understanding predict warming due to the excess of CO2 put into the atmosphere by man account, for cycles like the current La Niña?
rushmike says:
January 15, 2011 at 6:54 am
….and global temperatures still keep climbing, global ice area is reaching the lowest level recorded…..and yet AGW is still being , 2010 was the equal warmest, and wettest year recorded, we are only two weeks into 2011 and extreme weather events have affected Brazil, Sri Lanka and Queensland….hmmmmmm
and global temps have already lost ALL of those high temps and are still dropping. Global sea ice is flat although the arctic has become the dumping ground for the NH’s heat and the thickness has grown from last year in spite of this. The Australian flooding, as bad as it is, still isn’t the worst on record and AGW touted us getting hotter and drier. It is not hotter than ten years ago and we have seen this year that it certainly isn’t drier.
Sorry you are so wrong, but, I guess someone has to be.
What new do we learn from these data? All this is known from terrestric data and from other satellite data which measure SST. Now NASA measures sea surface temperatures by sea surface heights. And by a very complicated, time consuming analysis which gives nothing new, but that is achieved with much bigger error bars.
The other day we had the solar constant minimum baseline newly adjusted, it differs considerably from the previous satellite result. And the new value approaches the sixty year old terrestric value of Abbot.
How many satellites are in space measuring climate data? 20 or 50 or 100?
Each 100 megabucks or how much more?
And terrestric data taking is shut down (or not even started) because of lack of funds.
It may be allowed to ask: who benefits most from all the climate change excitement?
“Although exacerbated by precipitation from a tropical cyclone, rainfalls of historic proportion in eastern Queensland, Australia have led to levels of flooding usually only seen once in a century,” said David Adamec, Oceanographer
In Adamec’s defense, there was only one really big flood during the last century, if you count the century as 1909-2009. And he probably just missed the five major floods that occured between 1840 and 1900, at levels higher than the current flooding. After all, only two of those floods registered as almost double the level of today’s. Another half-dozen or so floods during this same 60 year time period were merely almost to the level of today’s.
Matt Schilling says: January 15, 2011 at 7:38 am
“Am I right to think water from La Nina’s primary pool is being drawn into the Gulf of Mexico and, from there, is being drawn into the Gulf Stream, which then sends it by express delivery straight to Great Britain? Is the Gulf Stream currently (pun intended!) impacting NW Europe in a way that is the inverse of the impact for which it is famous?”
No. Mexico, Central America and South America’s contiguous land mass prevents La Nina’s cold waters in the Pacific Ocean from entering the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream:
http://oceanmotion.org/html/background/wind-driven-surface.htm
The atmospheric effects of the La Nina can certainly impact the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf Stream and Great Britain, but there is no direct interchange between the bodies of water.
Suffering under La Nina? Did you suffer under El Nino? Did you suffer under a negative AO? The fault is ours.
Wherever the winds pile up warm water during La Nina’s worst PMS days, is exactly where much of civilization has extended their city boundaries out into the ocean (kinda reminds me of trailer houses parked in Tornado Ally areas). Isn’t there a biblical reference directed at this folly? We flood because we have purposely sunk our cities into the ocean just for the ocean view. We freeze because we build in freeze and glacier prone areas just so we can see framed valleys below through our front window. We sweat because we desire to build in deserts. The river gnaws away at our front door because we wanted river-front property. Our houses fall into the sea because the sand beneath us falls away. Why? Developer and buyer visionary, yet still stoooopid, greed. Many of the houses under water in Aussie land look new to me. Sorry, but I have no sympathy. Reminds me of the houses built on sand spits along the Oregon coastline.
Some good advice from your past: You should not build a house where your ancestors refused to build a house. Just because you are modern doesn’t mean you are smarter.
Don’t listen to “Just The Facts”, he is forgetting about the Panama Canal , where [undocumented] climate workers furiously shuttle the cooler water through to cool the planet.
Matt Schilling says: “Am I right to think water from La Nina’s primary pool is being drawn into the Gulf of Mexico and, from there, is being drawn into the Gulf Stream, which then sends it by express delivery straight to Great Britain?”
Nope. The Atlantic responds to ENSO events through teleconnections. That is, the La Nina is changing the “normal” atmopheric circulation patterns, rearranging the “normal” wind patterns, etc., which in turn alter the “normal” SST anomalies.
As Sam Glasser says:
January 15, 2011 at 7:00 am
“Earth’s ocean is the greatest influence on global climate”. And how does the ocean get its heat? From the CO2 driven atmospheric warming? But water has ~3,000 times the heat capacity (per unit mass) of air. I think the pseudo-scientists have their independent and dependent variables reversed
I think that the AGW theory fails at almost every level but the heating of the oceans is one of the most fundamental stumbling blocks. Given that 70% of the surface area of the earth is ocean and given the heat capacity of the oceans (bear in mind the heated volume in comparison to the depth to which the ground/soil can be heated) means that you cannot get global warming unless the oceans are being heated. However, a slightly warmer atmosphere (whatever be its cause) cannot heat the oceans. You cannot heat a cup of water by blowing a hair dryer over and parallel with the surface of the water.
We know that CO2 does not in itself heat, and at best can only slow down heat loss but in practice in the real world, it is not very effective at slowing down heat loss, witness how cold a desert is at night. The CO2 in the atmosphere does not act an effective blanket keeping in the heat which has been generated during the day and the sand in the desert does not possess sufficient latent heat to continuously at night heat the air above it. Contrast this with the air over an ocean which remains warm at night due to the heat capacity of the ocean which continuously heats the air above it and due to the moisture of ocean air.
Oceans, if they are getting warmer (which they do not appear to be doing) can only be heated by energy from the sun or thermal energy from the mantle/crust. CO2 cannot drive the energy budget of the oceans and that is a death knell to the AGW theory.
NB. I am ignoring currents which are merely distributing or redistributing heat that is already in the system and which may change where the heat is to be observed but which do not in themselves actually heat the ocean.
rushmike says:
January 15, 2011 at 6:54 am
….and global temperatures still keep climbing, global ice area is reaching the lowest level recorded…..and yet AGW is still being , 2010 was the equal warmest, and wettest year recorded, we are only two weeks into 2011 and extreme weather events have affected Brazil, Sri Lanka and Queensland….hmmmmmm
*******************
So many mistakes in a single post.
1) Temperatures haven’t gone up since 1998.
.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.lrg.gif
.
2) Ice in the Arctic has increased the last 3 years and the Antarctic is well above average.
.
3) Temperature was very slightly warmer because of an El Nino in the spring which GISS’s saw and a La Nina in the fall which GISS missed. Other temperature records didn’t. The real news was the lack of warming since 1998.
.
4) The extreme weather events can’t be caused by global warming if it hasn’t warmed since 1998. The alarmists are so embarrassed by the failure to warm that they are grasping at straws with the climate disruption nonsense. There is no proof that calamities have increased.
Werner Weber says: “Now NASA measures sea surface temperatures by sea surface heights.”
Hi Werner. I didn’t understand that from this post. NASA has been monitoring ocean topography with satellites since the early 1990s.
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/
I have never seen NASA attempt to convert SSH data into SST data.