By Hedley Thomas, The Australian
A SECRET report by scientific and engineering experts warned of significantly greater risks of vast destruction from Brisbane River flooding – and raised grave concerns with the Queensland government and the city’s council a decade ago.
But the recommendations in the report for radical changes in planning strategy, emergency plans and transparency about the true flood levels for Brisbane were rejected and the report was covered up.
The comprehensive 1999 Brisbane River Flood Study made alarming findings about predicted devastation to tens of thousands of flood-prone properties, which were given the green light for residential development since the 1974 flood. The engineers and hydrologists involved in the study warned that the next major flood in Brisbane would be between 1m and 2m higher than anticipated by the Brisbane town plan.
The study highlighted how the council had permitted the development of thousands of properties whose owners were led to believe they would be out of harm’s way in a flood on the scale of 1974.
The study was leaked to this reporter in June 2003 by a high-level public servant, who revealed that the local and state government at the time were less concerned with flood risks and more interested in seeing property development in low-lying areas.
“The flood immunity of properties is less than previously assessed. The average flood damages associated with flooding will be significantly higher. There are potential legal implications for council by allowing development to occur in higher-risk areas. As a minimum, developers and residents may need to be advised of the actual flood risk on their property,” the study says. “All elements of the study have been subjected to independent peer review because the key findings have significant implications for council.
“The major finding of this study is that the calculated one-in-100-year design flood flow . . . is about 1m to 2m higher than the current development control in the Brisbane River corridor. The simple option of saying that the current development control level represents the one-in-100-year flood level is not valid.”
Full story here
h/t to WUWT reader “Baa humbug”
Some years ago wished to purchase a house, shown many properties, one I remember is particular, asked what was the hill immediately behind the house, lovely and green with grass and a few trees. Oh thats the levy bank, must have been 4 meters high or therabouts. I looked at the real estate man in amazement, his reply “Its to stop the river overflowing” , my thoughts came closer to being under a waterfall, No thanks.
We have to be responsible for some common sense, if the developers could not sell these properties I think they would be very cautious about going ahead with this type of project. By the way this is in the Brisbane region, they missed the bullet this time.
Had the politicians (and that includes local councils) not been the dumb ignorant sheep that they are and listened to the sensationalists, who had nothing to back up their ludicrious claims other than the need to sell more books and more tickets to their engagements, we might’ve better prepared for a return to wet conditions. Instead we heard continual garbage from Tim Flannery, David Jones, John Connor, Penny Wong, Peter Garrett, Penny Sackett, Robyn Williams, Clive Hamilton and others saying that our rainfall was going to get less and less. The informed however (as muted as we were) knew that conditions would turn, just as they have done for eons. Sure enough, here we are now in the midst of a strong La Nina, courtesy of a cool phase PDO and slowing jetstream activity (courtesy of a quiet sun) resulting in regular slow moving, very moist systems over eastern Australia. Add to that the negative IOD situation in the Indian Ocean, bringing further moisture across to eastern Australia, and we have wet conditions that could last well into 2012.
Queensland has just had its wettest year (2010) on record, the drought has been well n truly broken across Victoria, SA, and NSW, dams are at their highest levels in 15 years – and it hasn’t stopped. A wet Feburary is forecast all up and down the Eastern Seaboard, and if JAMSTEC are right (and they usually are), a wet autumn and winter is on its way. More flooding too, especially with many dams already at capacity with saturated catchments. The 28-day rainfall forecast for SE Queensland is not looking good, and sadly I can see an ‘encore’ of sorts happening somewhere in Qld in a few weeks time.
DONATE to the Queensland Premier’s Flood Appeal at: http://telethon.smartservice.qld.gov.au/
Here in Reno there’s a housing development in a region called “Double Diamond”. It’s in a flood plain. Driving along the 395 freeway you need only look at the eastern Sierra on the west, look at the drainage potential, and see where the water is going to end up.
6500 homes will be flooded, and the cry will be “Nobody warned us!”
Why would there be a secret report to government on natural hazards?
Forgetting for the moment that nothing was done, I really cannot imagine why any researcher producing this report would want to keep it quiet. I cannot think of a single justification why a government would want to keep it secret wither. It looks to me like there is a problem in government more profound than incompetence in this one case. The fact that it stayed quiet for a decade is far more disturbing, as leadership of Queensland has changed hands (though not parties) during that time.
There are no requirements for politicians or persons on councils to have any educational qualifications here in Australia. One merely has to show “An expression of interest’ for the job and be personable. In fact if one does delve into the educational background of these characters, the finding of an educational qualification beyond a basic junior school leaving certificate would be rarer than the Kepler Telescope’s finds of rocky planets like the Earth!
Robert Ellison says:
January 12, 2011 at 7:18 pm
Rob thankyou for your comments which were obviously based on your hands-on experience.
However I think your final paragraph was unnecessary. Anthony made no comment about the story. He put forward no opinions. All he did was to alert his readers to a story in the major national paper of Australia.
And yes this most certainly is relevant. This is the subject discussed by WUWT commentors on the australias-tragic-flooding-30-feared-dead post.
Whilst you’re here, may I ask, would you support an unfettered full blown Royal Commission into this extreme event (including the Rocky floods etc)?
If yes, what are the insights to be gained from such a commission?
If not, why not?
Baa Humbug says:
January 12, 2011 at 7:56 pm
I’ll second that.
What a crime, heads and governments need to fall, this is deliberate destruction of peoples lives and a vibrant economy. All levels of government are responsible for these disgusting cover up and lies, it’s the same crowd and mentality that have feed the climate hoax to a gullible public, there’s no end to the slimy methods they have used, it is high treason to Australia and it has caused the death of many people, wildlife and livelihoods!
Can somebody fill me in on whats happening in Pomona, near Brisbane there is not much on the internet? I have family members there that I can’t get in touch with, any info would be very much appreciated.
Thanks.
Ted. Vancouver, Canada.
Nothing could have prevented the Toowoomba flash flood which compounded down Murphy’s Crwwk ansd onto Grantham. However, rebuilding should take these marks into account. Government should make many more parks in these towns and assist the flood victims in rebuilding elsewhere or buying elsewhere.
The whole flooding of the Condamine and Fitzroy system has been very well handled. Now though, they should really consider resiting towns and suburbs.
Bigger mitigation dams should be built. ALready, teh Dawson River requires a dam for coalmines and the Burdekin dam has to be enlarged.
These inftastructure programs have a positive effect on the economy and socially.
AGW and dam bans are dumb and unscientific marketing claptrap.
People living there need to take some responsibility too. You don’t buy a house in a flood plain if you don’t want to be flooded, especially in an area with a long history of devestating floods. You don’t buy a house next to an airport if you don’t want to listen to plane engines all day and night. Etc.
@Rob Ellison
Forgive me for opining from half a world away, but you say:
Just exactly how well do you think these ideas have actually worked in recent practice?
Sadly we are no better here in Oregon,USA, or new/old Governor “Hayduke”
Kitzhaber,D-Retread His dream is blow up every dam on the Columbia and as we speak there are Dams on the Klamath River going away power and flood control both.
I have made my living as a Realtor for the last 11 years after I quit fire fighting.
I have seen: Homes built on sliding hills with the assurance by the county and state
that “Heavy rains are a thing of the past,sayeth the Profit.” One large development in particular is now in the other(lower) development’s back yard. I have seen a development built requiring shake Roof homes! “Why it rains a lot on the Oregon
Coast-there’s no fire danger!”-Ever hear of the Tillamook Burn?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tillamook_Burn
Then there is the fools who are allowed to build their homes 1/2 a foot above mean
seal lever-just kidding, but there is a development near Gold Beach Oregon that
when you drive through it you see driftwood on the banks above the homes.
The Sea had to be there in the recent past…
To my Australian friends, I will keep you in my thoughts….
When Global Warming does not pan out. Last time I was in Australia, 2 years ago. they were in the midst of an inland flood plane, and were postulating how it was the last. Amidst very cold temperatures and persistent cold. It seemed like group hysteria.
Not sure if the state govt is to blame for any deaths yet, but Toowoomba council has a case to answer. Engineers recommended large diameter pipes for storm water culverts but were overruled by council, because it would ruin the aesthetics of the parkland development that encroached on the storm water easements. At last count there were three deaths in Toowoomba.
Here in the US, we still have a two party system. One party, though, with the help of a sympathetic media, is trying very hard to turn us into a one party welfare state and never wastes an opportunity to complain that the other party is trying to warn the people of the destruction that lies therein.
Keith, Toowoomba had a rainfall rate of about 300mm an hour leading into the disaster. That is they had 150mm of rain in half an hour.
On the Weatherzone forums which I go to for the most accurate information, (which incidentally introduced me to this website), there were well informed posters who warned of the pending disaster in Toowoomba at least 2 hours before it happened adnwere trying to get the word out to the various authorities when the disaster occurred.
It was a freak combination of weather factors that caused a rainfall rate that no amount of town planning would have prevented from turning into a catastophe.
For anyone wanting to learn of the background to this event go to forum.weatherzone.com.au and look at the thread on the event for SE QLD. There is a lot of useful information on the extraordinary nature of what has just occurred in SE QLD.
As I am a person who has resided in North Queensland for 70+ years, I think the comments by Pat @ur momisugly 6.19pm on 12th. Jan. above deserve commenting upon as they are accurate.. Wivenhoe Dam was planned and built as a flood mitigation dam by a National Party state government after the 1974 Brisbane flood to save the people in low lying areas from a repeat of the flooding, and to avoid this appalling situation today which could get much worse in the 3 summer months ahead. I hope that I am wrong in that regard.
Another Queensland city, Townsville, used to have similar flooding issues prior to the 1950’s with above a metre of water across the flood plain during La Nina summer periods. The Burdekin towns of Home Hill and Ayr were similarly affected.
Flood mitigation dams in these instances were contructed and then managed by local controllers who watched the potential issues without political influence. They have contained the flooding to acceptable minor local flooding, mainly governed by tidal sea levels, and low pressure system tidal influences.
Cam (Melbourne Australia) at 7.43pm has my admiration for being prepared to print the situation on Australian politics about Climate Change issues.
I cannot agree with any of Robert Ellison’s comments.
Thanks Anthony for presenting these issues. It should help many people in flood areas where the government needs to protect the residents by being honest about the situation ,and consider the wisdom of buying back some properties.
Ted Gray
I live on Bribie Island down the road a bit from Pomona, and I have friends in the Kenilworth – Eumundi area that I am in contact with.
I have been through all the local news and reports and there doesn’t seem to be any bad news from the Pomona area. It is possible the town and area are isolated at the moment because many of the local, and major roads are cut.
However phones – including mobiles – and internet, have been out on and off for the past four days. We were without the lot yesterday and the day before and only got services back late last night. Even now mobiles are off and on.
Apparently some of the major switching exchanges in Brisbane metro have been flooded and damaged and this is causing problems all over the place. Even where the system does work, it quickly gets swamped. So they have asked everybody to only phone if they really have to.
So I’d say your relatives are fine, but communication with them might be a bit difficult for a few days.
Wikipedia puts Brisbane river’s flood history into perspective,
The ‘sinuous course’ is the contour suggesting a minimal flow rate to the sea and so is prone to flooding. As the river approaches Moreton Bay it straightens and widens and it is less prone to flooding.
I suspect that Wivenhoe Dam’s ‘flood mitigation’ involves controlling outlet flow by opening the gates, four were open when I last looked out of a possible five. Now the flood peak at 1metre below the estimate at high tide at 4am last night is a very large error, welcome certainly, but I wonder if the flow was controlled to dampen the ‘peak’?
The comment suggesting that government stop subsidizing flood insurance was right on. A simple solution immune to politics.
Ted Gray says:
January 12, 2011 at 8:31 pm
Hi Ted
Mate best I can help you with is to say that Pomona is part of the Sunshine Coast Regional Council
Currently only 2 roads are closed in Pomona. Black Pinch Road due to slip and Grahams road due to water over road.
http://www.sunshinecoast.qld.gov.au/index.cfm
There are contact numbers if you are sufficiently concerned.
Doug Badgero :
“No doubt, private developers would have built anywhere anyone had paid them to build. Perhaps the job of the government in this case was to ensure homeowners and insurance companies adequately understood the risks.”
The job of the police is to prevent burglaries, but if they fail through incompetence or corruption, we do not place all the blame on the police. We still think that the burglars are to blame for the actual theft.
Let’s hope that Brisbane erects a monument in the center of the flood area indicating the high water level, as a warning to future development.
Same goes for New Orleans…
Latimer Alder says:
January 12, 2011 at 8:52 pm
@Rob Ellison
Hi,
Let’s start with the easy one. The Beach Protection Act was instituted after the horrendous 1968 storm season. The Beach Protection Authority (now unfortunately rolled into the environment department – going from a technical organisation to one that couldn’t find its arse with a map) calculated setbacks that were conservative in relation to beach erosion and contained a nominal but reasonable adjustment for sea level rise. 2008 legislation raised the bar to an 80cm sea level rise. Whatever. These are things that have been strictly enforced. The only real problem I have with it is that the coastal land surrendered to the state is then allowed to be overtaken by weeds, pigs, cats, foxes and feral 4 wheel drivers.
Surge levels are routinely calculated up and down the coast of Queensland using data from a good system of wave guages (courtesy of the Beach Protection Authority), bathymetry data courtesy of Geoscience Australia and numerical analysis programs based on the equations of fluid motion – usually till now the Danish Hydraulics Institute MIKE21 model.
Every project I have worked on in nearly 30 years of engineering has been (1) located out of the 100 year flood which is calculated based on methods that are continually in development by Engineers Australia and published in Australian Rainfall and Runoff, (2) are designed to reduce the 100 year downstream discharge to predevelopment levels and (3) are designed using the best principles, techniques and software in the world to reduce pollutant export from urban and industrial areas.
As the oldest environmental engineer in existence (I got a Masters in Environmental Science before they thought of Environmental Engineering) – I have been doing this for a long time. It is just part of the design environment.
There are still a lot of houses built in the decades before these practices. I live near Rockhampton in Central Queensland. It is all very dramatic and there are crocodiles (and these are the biggest and most dangerous there are) cruising the streets but fortunately no one has died locally. The relatively small number of houses inundated are in the older and seedier part of town and the joke is that, dam, there goes the crystal meth and hydroponic dope supply.
I am sure they are very nice people.
Cheers
Rob
“graham g says:
January 12, 2011 at 9:30 pm”
By my reckoning we have only 6 more weeks of “summer” to go and, to me at least, it’s looking like it’ll be a cool end to it too.