Australia's white summer, Monbiot's red fury

Australia swaps summer for Christmas snow

Snow and ice covering buildings and cars at Mount Hotham as snow fell in Australia

Excerpts from Physorg.com

Snow and ice covering buildings and cars on December 19, 2010 at Mount Hotham,Victoria, as snow fell in Australia. The usual hot and summery December weather was replaced in parts by icy gusts sweeping up from the Southern Ocean, giving the country a taste of a white Christmas. Snow has fallen in parts of east coast states New South Wales and Victoria.

Snow fell in Australia on Monday, as the usual hot and summery December weather was replaced in parts by icy gusts sweeping up from the Southern Ocean, giving the country a taste of a white Christmas.

Snow has fallen in parts of east coast states New South Wales and Victoria, leaving ski resorts — some of which are usually snow-free at this time of year — with dumps of up to 10 centimetres (four inches).

“It’s white, everything is white,” Michelle Lovius, the general manager of the Kosciuszko Chalet Hotel at Charlotte Pass told AFP.

Lovius said such an amount of snow was unusual for early December, normally the peak of the wildflower season in the New South Wales mountain region.

Further south in Victoria state, Mt Hotham had 10 centimetres of snow on Sunday and Mt Buller up to five centimetres, Victorian Snow Report spokeswoman Maureen Gearon said.

http://cdn.physorg.com/newman/gfx/news/hires/1-snowandiceco.jpg

Snow and ice covering buildings and ski lifts at Mount Hotham, Victoria, December 19, 2010 as snow fell in Australia.

The cold blasts carried through to Sydney, where the temperature fell to 13 degrees Celsius (55 degrees Fahrenheit) early Monday, and dipped to 9.8 Celsius in the city’s west while winds of up to 100 kilometres (62 miles) an hour are forecast for much of the state’s coastline.

It was a different story on Australia’s west coast, where the worst flooding in 50 years isolated the town of Carnarvon, 900 kilometres north of Perth.

===================================================

Here’s some data:

All that rain seen in the plot above happened before the December flooding mentioned above…and the temperature today? Hardly summerlike continent-wide:

Townsville in the Northeast was balmy (isn’t it always?) but the vast majority of the country was well below normal. Bear in mind, this isn’t just a few stations at a few cities. I got a healthy respect for the size of the continent when I gave my tour with David Archibald in June. This can help you visualize the size:

Image from Mr_P’s blog here

Meanwhile, George Monbiot with the help of the kids at the “Climate Rapid Response Team”, try to argue that the cold and snow in England is a localized event.

George helpfully provides a link to NASA GISS’s map generator along with this hotsy totsy prose:

Last month’s shows a deep blue splodge over Iceland, Spitsbergen, Scandanavia and the UK, and another over the western US and eastern Pacific. Temperatures in these regions were between 0.5C and 4C colder than the November average from 1951 and 1980. But on either side of these cool blue pools are raging fires of orange, red and maroon: the temperatures in western Greenland, northern Canada and Siberia were between 2C and 10C higher than usual. Nasa’s Arctic oscillations map for 3-10 December shows that parts of Baffin Island and central Greenland were 15C warmer than the average for 2002-9.

Here’s that map, plotted with the defaults at GISS (same link as George provided), showing their world famous 1200km smoothed map, where data is “splodged” to places where there really isn’t any:

The reason there is “no data” is that there are no weather stations in the middle of the Arctic Ocean or Southern Ocean. This is fact, and GISS knows this. Watch carefully for the next image.

As proof of the “no data”issue, let’s plot GISS with 250 KM smoothing, by simply changing the GISSplotter pulldown menu:

Hey, that’s a lot of gray, note the caveat in yellow about missing data:

All the sudden, those “raging fires of orange, red and maroon” don’t look so big, do they George? There’s no reds, oranges or yellows over northern Greenland, or Iceland, or the East Siberian Sea, or most of Africa, and much of Antarctica’s coastline and the southern ocean.

In fact, a lot of those isolated red and maroon splotches in Greenland, Canada, and Russia are single data points. Yep, GISS takes data from these stations and smears the effect writ large on the 1200KM smoothing map. Journalists like yourself often don’t notice, they simply see the issue in shades of smeared red.

And guess what George? In those remote locations like Nuuk, Greenland, (see arrow, under a red splotch in SW Greenland) what have we there? Remote pockets of humanity. Humanity building little cities of warmth in the cold Arctic, growing cities:

With 15,469 inhabitants as of 2010, Nuuk is the fastest-growing town in Greenland, with migrants from the smaller towns and settlements reinforcing the trend. Together with Tasiilaq, it is the only town in the Sermersooq municipality exhibiting stable growth patterns over the last two decades. The population increased by over a quarter relative to the 1990 levels, and by nearly 16 percent relative to the 2000 levels.

Nuuk population dynamics

Nuuk population growth dynamics in the last two decades. Source: Statistics Greenland

Nuuk is not only a growing city, where UHI might now be a factor (but don’t take my word for it, see what NASA had to say about it at AGU this year), it is also a place where the official GHCN thermometers used by NASA are right next to human influences…like  turboprop jet exhaust, such as this one in Nuuk’s airport right on the tarmac:

 

Nuuk Airport looking Southwest Image: Panaramio via Google Earth

 

Nuuk Airport, Stevenson Screen. Image from Webshots – click to enlarge

Hmmm, I wonder what happened in Nuuk? The plot below is from NASA GISS (see it yourself here). No wonder George sees red dots on the map in Greenland. That “instant global warming” line seems out of character for natural variation in Nuuk. Note the data discontinuity. Often that suggests a station move.

And here’s the interesting thing. Nuuk is just one data point, one “raging red” anomaly in the sparsely spaced hands-on-human-measured NASA GISS surface temperature dataset for the Arctic. The patterns of warm pockets of humanity with airports and GHCN stations repeat themselves all over the Arctic, because as anyone who has visited the Arctic knows, aviation is the lifeline of these remote communities. And where do they measure the weather data? At the airport of course. Aviation doesn’t work otherwise.

See my complete report on the weird temperatures from Nuuk here. And while you are at it George, read my report about the weird temperatures from Svalbaard, another warm single data point from NASA GISS. Interestingly, at that station a local citizen did some science and proved the UHI effect at the airport.

Yes these are just two examples. But there is no denying these facts:

  • Remote communities in the Arctic are islands of anthropogenic warmth
  • These communities rely of aviation as a lifeline
  • The weather is measured at these airports, it is required for safety
  • Airports release huge amounts of waste heat, from exhaust, de-icing, terminal buildings, and even tarmac in the sun.
  • The majority of GHCN weather stations (used by NASA GISS) in the Arctic are at airports.

So, George,  when using NASA GISS to prove to your readers that warm pocket weather patterns elsewhere cause cold in England:

There is now strong evidence to suggest that the unusually cold winters of the last two years in the UK are the result of heating elsewhere.

The global temperature maps published by Nasa present a striking picture.

But on either side of these cool blue pools are raging fires of orange, red and maroon: the temperatures in western Greenland, northern Canada and Siberia were between 2C and 10C higher than usual.

Remember Nuuk and Svalbarrd’s thermometers, and then ask Jim Hansen why NASA GISS, a “space studies agency”, doesn’t use satellite data but instead relies upon a surface record that another division of NASA says likely has significant UHI effects that NASA GISS doesn’t filter out sensibly (they only allow for 0.05°C downward adjustment).

Be careful of the colors, George.

Speaking of colors, George doesn’t dare link/show you this image of the monster La Niña though (or maybe he’s simply unaware), where there’s scads of actual satellite measured data:

Look at all that colder water surrounding Britain, look at the size of the Pacific La Niña and the swath in the Atlantic of cool water and compare it to the size of Britain. That splotch of red by Greenland may be partly due to a somewhat persistent blocking high, much like the one that caused the heat wave in Russia this year.

Since George argues with colors, how about this one from UNISYS? No “raging fires of orange, red and maroon” on this one, but there are some warm pockets south of Greenland. The Pacific Warm Pool north of Australia even seems anemic.

 

UNISYS Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Plot – click to enlarge

The oceans are the biggest heat sink on the planet, and there are no cities, no airports, no asphalt sea surfaces to bias the data. There’s no immediate human influence on the sea surface where the satellites look. The sea tells a different story that the human touched thermometers on land at airports, and the sea has no reason to boast its temperature.

The sea — this truth must be confessed — has no generosity. No display of manly qualities — courage, hardihood, endurance, faithfulness — has ever been known to touch its irresponsible consciousness of power. – Joesph Conrad

So George, I ask you: “hottest year ever” or “hottest year at the airport”?

For more on La Niña and its effects in our current year, have a look here, particularly the Nino3.4 graph.

I should add this: I’m not denying that we’ve had a warm year. In fact we started out 2010 with a strong El Niño and ended with a strong La Niña, as illustrated here:

In the space of a single year, we’ve had a complete reversal. The forecast is for it to go even lower:

So in cooler times ahead in the dip of La Niña, the question is this: will we still see those “raging fires of orange, red and maroon” in the Arctic? NASA GISS history during the peak of the 2008 La Niña suggests we very well might:

Addendum 12/22

I added this in comments, so I’ll add it here also:

And finally, can you really trust data from an organization that takes incoming data for that station and shifts it more than an entire degree C in the past, making a new trend? See the difference between “raw” (which really isn’t raw, it has a scads of adjustments already from NOAA) compared to the GISS final output in this chart:

The data is downloaded from GISS for the station, datasets 1 and 2 were used (raw-combined for this location and homogenized) which are available from the station selector via a link to data below the charts they make on the GISS website. The data is plotted up to the data continuity break, and again after. The trend lines are plotted to the data continuity break, and there’s no trend in the raw data for the last 100+ years.

The curious thing is that there’s no trend in the raw data at Nuuk until you do either (or both) of two things:

1. You use GISS homogenized data to plot the trend

2. You use the data after the discontinuity to plot the trend

I believe the data discontinuity represents a station move, one that exposed it to a warmer local environment. And clearly, by examining the GISS data for Nuuk, you can see that GISS adds adjustments that are not part of the measured reality. What justification could there possibly be to adjust the temperatures of the past downwards? What justification in a growing community (as shown by the population curve) could there be for doing an adjustment that is reverse of waste energy UHI?

Australia swaps summer for Christmas snow

December 20, 2010 Snow and ice covering buildings and cars at Mount Hotham as snow fell in AustraliaEnlarge

Snow and ice covering buildings and cars on December 19, 2010 at Mount Hotham,Victoria, as snow fell in Australia. The usual hot and summery December weather was replaced in parts by icy gusts sweeping up from the Southern Ocean, giving the country a taste of a white Christmas. Snow has fallen in parts of east coast states New South Wales and Victoria.

Snow fell in Australia on Monday, as the usual hot and summery December weather was replaced in parts by icy gusts sweeping up from the Southern Ocean, giving the country a taste of a white Christmas.

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Snow has fallen in parts of east coast states and Victoria, leaving ski resorts — some of which are usually snow-free at this time of year — with dumps of up to 10 centimetres (four inches).

“It’s white, everything is white,” Michelle Lovius, the general manager of the Kosciuszko Chalet Hotel at Charlotte Pass told AFP.

“First thing this morning everything was just very still, very peaceful and every single thing was just blanketed in a thick cover of white.”

Lovius said such an amount of was unusual for early December, normally the peak of the wildflower season in the New South Wales mountain region.

“We’re hoping that it (the cold) stays in for five days and we get a white ,” she said.

Further south in Victoria state, Mt Hotham had 10 centimetres of snow on Sunday and Mt Buller up to five centimetres, Victorian Snow Report spokeswoman Maureen Gearon said.

“It is a blanket of white, which is beautiful at this time of year. People are out in their Santa hats taking photos in the snow,” Gearon told Australian news agency AAP.

Snow and ice covering buildings and ski lifts at Mount Hotham, Victoria

Enlarge

Snow and ice covering buildings and ski lifts at Mount Hotham, Victoria, December 19, 2010 as snow fell in Australia. The cold blasts carried through to Sydney, where the temperature fell to 13 degrees Celsius (55 degrees Fahrenheit) early Monday, and dipped to 9.8 Celsius in the city’s west

The cold blasts carried through to Sydney, where the temperature fell to 13 degrees Celsius (55 degrees Fahrenheit) early Monday, and dipped to 9.8 Celsius in the city’s west while winds of up to 100 kilometres (62 miles) an hour are forecast for much of the state’s coastline.It was a different story on Australia’s west coast, where the worst flooding in 50 years isolated the town of Carnarvon, 900 kilometres north of Perth.

Weather experts said it was not unusual for to experience chilly weather in eastern states in early December, as cold winds from deep in the Southern Oceans sweep upwards.

“It’s not uncommon to get a dusting of snow along the higher peaks of New South Wales and Victoria every couple of years (at this time),” Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Grant Beard told AFP.

Gearon agreed, saying that in previous years, those on the Victorian snowfields had been “having cocktails in the sun one day and skiing the next”.

(c) 2010 AFP

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Lew Skannen

“There is now strong evidence to suggest that the unusually cold winters of the last two years in the UK are the result of heating elsewhere.”
That sounds suspiciously close to being a refutation of one of the laws of thermodynamics.

Yeah that’s all fine, but how is the MCG?

TomRude

Talking about bad timing: in the abstract “The reduction in snow cover in the twenty-first century relative to the twentieth century …” LOL
Alexander, Michael A., Robert Tomas, Clara Deser, David M. Lawrence, 2010: The Atmospheric Response to Projected Terrestrial Snow Changes in the Late Twenty-First Century. J. Climate, 23, 6430–6437.
The Atmospheric Response to Projected Terrestrial Snow Changes in the Late Twenty-First Century
Michael A. Alexander
NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, * Boulder, Colorado
Robert Tomas, Clara Deser, and David M. Lawrence
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Abstract
Two atmospheric general circulation model experiments are conducted with specified terrestrial snow conditions representative of 1980–99 and 2080–99. The snow states are obtained from twentieth-century and twenty-first-century coupled climate model integrations under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and greenhouse gas concentrations are set to 1980–99 values in both atmospheric model experiments to isolate the effect of the snow changes. The reduction in snow cover in the twenty-first century relative to the twentieth century increases the solar radiation absorbed by the surface, and it enhances the upward longwave radiation and latent and sensible fluxes that warm the overlying atmosphere. The maximum twenty-first-century minus twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT) differences are relatively small (<3°C) compared with those due to Arctic sea ice changes (10°C). However, they are continental in scale and are largest in fall and spring, when they make a significant contribution to the overall warming over Eurasia and North America in the twenty-first century. The circulation response to the snow changes, while of modest amplitude, involves multiple components, including a local low-level trough, remote Rossby wave trains, an annular pattern that is strongest in the stratosphere, and a hemispheric increase in geopotential height.
Keywords: Snow cover, General circulation models, Atmospheric circulation, Climate models
Received: June 18, 2010; Accepted: August 3, 2010
Another fast acceptance…

Concerned

Andrew, a new smear campaign against global warming skeptics seems to have started here:
http://globalwarmingsuperheroes.com/
The domain was registered in the UK at:
Registration Service Provider:
Fasthosts Internet Limited, domains@fasthosts.co.uk
+44.8708883600
+44.8708883760 (fax)
http://www.Fasthosts.co.uk
Note the registration date: Record created on 14-Oct-2010
===
You can try contacting the owners of globalwarmingsuperheroes.com here:
https://rr-n1-tor.opensrs.net/wp_mailer/
Just paste in globalwarmingsuperheroes.com, fill in the captcha, and you’ll get a form to contact the globalwarmingsuperheroes.com admin.
===
globalwarmingsuperheroes.com
Globalwarmingsuperheroes.com is a domain controlled by three name servers at livedns.co.uk. All three of them are on the same IP network. The primary name server is ns1.livedns.co.uk. Incoming mail for globalwarmingsuperheroes.com is handled by one mail server at globalwarmingsuperheroes.com themselves. globalwarmingsuperheroes.com has one IP number (213.171.218.7).
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Search for globalwarmingsuperheroes.com.
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Any way for UK readers to find out who is behind this?

morgo

we live outside sydney and I bought a new a/c unit two months ago to be ready for the hottest summer on record we are told every day ” because of global warming” and I have so far had the heating on only .????????? all we want is our gov,t to come out and tell us it was just one big FRAUD

Brian H

The selectivity even extends to whole data sets and sources. Where’s the raw ARGO data, fellahs?

David Gould

According to the UAH ocean data, the oceans this year have been plenty hot. While it has cooled a little in the last two months, the 12-month running average is still the 6th warmest out of the 372 sets of 12-month periods in the record. The 12-month period ending at the end of September was the second warmest such period in the record. So, this year has seen a pretty warm ocean.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

All hail the power of mercator projections.
http://common.csnstores.com/common/marketing/Globes/globe1.jpg

Richard Sharpe

Lew Skannen says on December 20, 2010 at 8:27 pm

“There is now strong evidence to suggest that the unusually cold winters of the last two years in the UK are the result of heating elsewhere.”
That sounds suspiciously close to being a refutation of one of the laws of thermodynamics.

Nah. They are simply trying to apply the law of conservation of energy. As in:

If it’s f*cking cold here it must be f*cking hot somewhere else.

from mars

Well, the record warm at Nuuk is blamed on UHI , but the sea surface temperatures near Greenland are also warm, and also the surface temperatures as measured by satellites:
“Arctic Oscillation Chills US and Europe”
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=47880
Here it is said:
“This image shows the temperature of the land surface for December 3-10, 2010, compared to the average temperature for the same period between 2002 and 2009. The measurements are from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite.
Clearly, 2010 was cooler than average in northern Europe and the eastern United States. Greenland and parts of northern Canada, however, were exceptionally warm. This temperature pattern was caused by the Arctic Oscillation.”
So this “sea of red” is confirmed by satellites. Maybe there is some UHI at Nuuk, but very likely on top of a broad warm weather over Greenland (I said “very likely” and not “certain” because the GISTEMP map is from November, and the NASA OBSERVATORY map is from December).
The SST anomaly map also show large areas of warm waters in the Tropical Atlantic, the West Pacific-East Indian Oceans and the sea between Greenland and Canada.
And 2010 so far is a very warm year according to RSS and UAH lower troposphere temperatures measured by satellites. It is second warmest in RSS dataset and almost equal to the record warm year of 1998 in UAH dataset.

Dave F

The ‘Flaming Moonbat’ (<-snip if you must, but it is too damn funny) forgot to mention that the twin pools of red are the holy fire Iran is holding the West at bay with and the searing sea of fire that DPRK continues to threaten retaliation with. Funny how they disappear under scrutiny. These are also the areas where the cold are coming from, so there is that little tidbit.

Dave F

Cold is coming from, not are.

Henry

this sounded interesting….until I read the end of the article on PhysOrg. Makes it a little less clear just how much of anomaly this is. Maybe the anomaly is the scope of the anomalies continent-wide?:
Weather experts said it was not unusual for Australia to experience chilly weather in eastern states in early December, as cold winds from deep in the Southern Oceans sweep upwards.
“It’s not uncommon to get a dusting of snow along the higher peaks of New South Wales and Victoria every couple of years (at this time),” Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Grant Beard told AFP.
Gearon agreed, saying that in previous years, those on the Victorian snowfields had been “having cocktails in the sun one day and skiing the next”.

Ray

What? They have mountains in Australia?

Tom Harley

“Monbiot” and others like him must have been graduates from the “Baghdad Bob’s School of Ethics”…

Oliver Ramsay

from mars said “It is second warmest in RSS dataset and almost equal to the record warm year of 1998 in UAH dataset.”
—————
from mars,
For those of us that don’t speak martian, could you clarify what “almost equal to” means and what you would like us to infer from what you say?

morgo

RAY yes we have big mountains of BS coming out of the mouths of labour pollies

Charles

Wow, that Nuuk airport is SO BUSY it kept Hudson Bay ice-free well into December. Impressive.
Sorry, polar bears, the reason you’re breaking through the ice and drowning is not anthropogenic climate change, but because of ARCTIC AIRPORTS. We know that knowledge will make you feel better, somehow.
REPLY: Heh. Um, in case nobody has told you, polar bears car swim for miles in Arctic water. But don’t let that stop you from regurgitating a rant learned elsewhere. Feel free to provide a mortality report on the number of drowned polar bears to backup your claim though. – Anthony

Richard G

David Gould says:
December 20, 2010 at 8:51 pm
“According to the UAH ocean data, the oceans this year have been plenty hot. While it has cooled a little in the last two months, the 12-month running average is still the 6th warmest out of the 372 sets of 12-month periods in the record. The 12-month period ending at the end of September was the second warmest such period in the record. So, this year has seen a pretty warm ocean.”
Are you implying that we have a 372 year record or are you living in a cherry orchard? This cold weather is the pits.

Dave F

from mars says:
December 20, 2010 at 8:55 pm
It is second warmest in RSS dataset and almost equal to the record warm year of 1998 in UAH dataset.
Second place is the first loser. ‘Almost equal’ sounds like you are trying to say ‘military intelligence’ or ‘Microsoft Works’.

Engchamp

Concerned…
I really do not think that one should be looking at cartoons here –
http://globalwarmingsuperheroes.com/
– anonymous trolls, probably from greenpeace, attempting to vilify evidence, let alone existing data to suit their own warped ambitions.
Once again, we see this mob in ‘attack mode’ because they can do little else.
Utter garbage.
REPLY: No more of this off topic discussion please – Anthony

el gordo

In Tasmania today its cool to cold with snow falling to 900 meters, which is a little unusual for this time of year, but there is precedence.
When surgeon-general John White first saw the west coast of Tasmania in January 1788, ‘we were surprised to see, at this season of the year, some small patches of snow.’

John Trigge

Since when have we been using 7-year averages? WUWT?
Nasa’s Arctic oscillations map for 3-10 December shows that parts of Baffin Island and central Greenland were 15C warmer than the average for 2002-9.

Mike Jowsey

COME ON GUYS!!!!??? WUWT? Helo?

Crikey boomerang billabong vegemite!
PS – Does anyone know where I can get an Australian-to-English dictionary so I can understand what those blokes are talking about?

John F. Hultquist

raging fires of orange, red and maroon
The colors are (or ought to be) selected for good cartographic presentation. As they do seem to be selected to show “rage” we might conclude that good science has been given the heave-ho.
Kate at 8:52 pm makes a good point also. I think these are not Mercator projections, but similar in area distortion. From the GISS page for the map, this one is called “regular” – that’s funny!
These may be “Miller Cylindrical” centered on Africa.
http://egsc.usgs.gov/isb/pubs/MapProjections/projections.html
Just as you have done with the outline of OZ on the US and Europe, you might trace the outline of Greenland on Australia. It is a shame that more classrooms do not have globes – they are costly – as these area relationships are difficult to grasp on the world maps used.

Shane Muir

..from Australia
“I’m dreaming of a white christmas..
..just like the one I’ve never known”
Even if it snows at the MCG.. we will still beat the English.

John F. Hultquist

When we next hear of polar bears I trust the person will comment on
the number of bears thought to have existed 40 years ago and the number now;
Also, document historic hunting practices and how the following changed those practices:
the modern hunting rifle;
snow mobiles;
small aircraft

Neil

morgo says:
we live outside sydney and I bought a new a/c unit two months ago to be ready for the hottest summer on record we are told every day ” because of global warming” and I have so far had the heating on only .????????? all we want is our gov,t to come out and tell us it was just one big FRAUD

Heh. I work for an Air Conditioning company, and we’ve seen our sales crash well short of projections simply because of the lack of summer.
I’ve been chatting with the owners, saying that maybe we should be promoting the dehumidifying features rather than the cooling features.

pat

When I was in Australia in 2008, the media their kept trumpeting AGW and drought. The rains were horrendous and the Murray River Basin was flooding to an extent not seen in 15 years. Yet the MSM was talking drought. These people are daft.

thingadonta

One has to be a littel careful with average T graphs for Australia because the average temperature is closely related to amount of cloud cover which varies greatly between drought years and wet years. (As in Australia the saying is “it never rains but it pours”).
The current drought in WA means very low cloud cover which naturally pushes average T up, and in the last 10 years until this one average T has been higher in Eastern States partly due to the long drought which naturally means lower cloud cover, and higher average T.
This was acknowledged by criticisims of the CSIRO and others who inflated interpretations of average T without noting influence of cloud cover.
Also, the Murray Darling Basin is experiencing record rains this year, just about the time bureaucrats want to steal water long term from farmers for “river health” (within the context of a natural and not unusally long drought), just because the last ~10 years have been very dry. Of course, its all climate change, and the linear drought is supposed to continue, but somebody forgot to tell mother nature this year, with the Murray Darling having record rains.

So some one will perk up and say this snow is because of global warming. If we get enough global warming the world will be covered in snow.
;O)
~16-20 feet, or 4.8-6 meters, (maybe more, I don’t have the latest update) has fallen in the Sierras (mountains in California) since Friday. The storm is still going on.
Video of storm at link
http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=ir&hours=24

John F. Hultquist

Mike D at 9:41 Crikey . . .
Here’s a good start:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waltzing_Matilda
You will find links to such things as billabongs,
but if you need more go here:
http://aussie-slang.com/html/australian_slang.html
We’re just fooling around here; right?

Christopher Hanley

@Henry (8:57 pm):
“ …’It’s not uncommon to get a dusting of snow along the higher peaks of New South Wales and Victoria every couple of years (at this time),’ Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Grant Beard told AFP…..”
That’s true, there have been instances of ill-equipped hikers perishing in the high country in December after being caught by sudden snow and freezing temperatures.
However, below average temperatures have been the norm over most of the continent, for most of the year (click through the ‘period’ menu):
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=maxanom&period=week&area=nat
The anomaly maps show the departure from the long-term climate average calculated over the period 1971-2000 which has been acknowledged by the BOM to be a product of natural and UHI forcing:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6619

Dave F

Anthony, I think Engchamp may be a bot. I have seen bots rip words from other places and try to form cogent sentences like the one put together in that post. I could be wrong, though.

Charles says:
December 20, 2010 at 9:30 pm
Wow, that Nuuk airport is SO BUSY it kept Hudson Bay ice-free well into December. Impressive.
That’s all you’ve got, isn’t it. Or maybe you’ll bring up Russia, or Philadelphia. A few of you will even bring up Dick Cheney (still don’t know why some of you do that).
The warmth from Hudson Bay, in Canada, to Greenland is from left over warmth (mainly) from El Nino. That warmth is dissipating. At this time next year your global warming movement won’t even have the Hudson Bay to try to “prove” global warming with. At that point what will you do?
What’s it going to take to make “global warming” believers stop believing??

from mars

Oliver Ramsay says:
December 20, 2010 at 9:22 pm
“For those of us that don’t speak martian, could you clarify what “almost equal to” means and what you would like us to infer from what you say?”
Dave F says:
December 20, 2010 at 9:32 pm
“Second place is the first loser. ‘Almost equal’ sounds like you are trying to say ‘military intelligence’ or ‘Microsoft Works’”
Well, Roy Spencer should make it crystal clear:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/12/nov-2010-uah-global-temperature-update-0-38-deg-c/
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_Nov_10.gif
The figure clearly shows that 2010 and 1998 are almost equally warm. If you want numbers, Roy Spencer give them:
“2010 is now in a dead heat with 1998 for warmest year, with the following averages through November:
1998 +0.538
2010 +0.526
December will determine the outcome, but remember that the difference between the two years is not statistically significant”
Now, 1998 warmth followed a Super El Niño (ONI =+2.5ºC), 2010 warmth followed just a moderate-to-strong El Niño (ONI=+1.8ºC). Obviously, there is a warming trend.

James Sexton

Naw, that’s just more of the cold caused by the hot. Happens all the time…….in models that don’t reflect reality. (Has anyone seen one of those cold because hot predicting models?) It’s kinda like poley bears drowning because they are too buoyant. That happens right after they eat penguins!

David L

Using standard thermodynamic principles, exactly what is the mechanism for:
“There is now strong evidence to suggest that the unusually cold winters of the last two years in the UK are the result of heating elsewhere.”
Are they saying that CO2 only warms the planet in certain places and that causes cooling in other places? Are they serious? What universe do these “scientists” live in? Obviously one that isn’t controlled by the physics that govern this one.
By the way, there’s a serious problem with the data shown for Pennsylvania. Our temperatures all Dec. have been about 10-15 degrees F. below normal, yet the map shows orange. I guess that’s the average for the year but Moonbats comment makes it sound like the map is a snapshot for Dec.

Video with Joseph D’Aleo about dropped temperature stations
3 minute video

Our unseasonal snow here in New South Wales is evidence of climate change, of course. What isn’t?
Snow in summer – Sydney Morning Herald blames “climate change”
Simon
ACM

Chris Thorne

I gave up attempting to comment on articles by Monbiot, or anything else published at the Grauniad, after having had a number of comments censored. One particular piece of censorship was what provided the final discouragement of my efforts.
What was it I had posted which was so inflammatory that it required removal by their censors? It was a comment containing nothing more than a single URL, pointing to an earlier article on their very own Web site which had the temerity to factually contradict the article they had just published.
Anyone who won’t allow you to quote their own words back at them in debate really isn’t interested in debate at all. All they are doing is shouting from atop a soapbox.

Tim Neilson

Last century it wasn’t unusual for the Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground to be disrupted by cold rainy conditions. Hasn’t happened much in the 21st yet. They are forecasting some chance of rain on Boxing Day and the 27th. If so, that will be highly scientific evidence of the commencement of the descent of world temperatures from their end of millenium peak. Let’s hope not though – we wouldn’t want the “South African Invitational XI” to be able to “hide the decline” that started in Perth.

Dave F

from mars says:
December 20, 2010 at 10:09 pm
Now, 1998 warmth followed a Super El Niño (ONI =+2.5ºC), 2010 warmth followed just a moderate-to-strong El Niño (ONI=+1.8ºC). Obviously, there is a warming trend.
Yeah. A warming trend. That leads to an ‘almost equal’ warmth. Had you said ‘statistically indifferent’ or some such thin, I’d have ignored it. Almost equal is like calling a woman a little pregnant. It doesn’t work. Of course, since you are on statistical significance, we will be at how many years with no statistically significant warming if this year proves to be .05 ahead of 1998?

David L

Raging fires of orange, red and maroon…oh my!
(I think he’s been watching too much Wizard of Oz lately)

Allen

Colder in [insert your favourite European locale] means it’s getting hotter somewhere else… so say the armchair global temperature experts.
Show me where all this heat has gone to, armchair experts. Not Australia. Not North America. Asia? Africa? Actual measured heat content please, not models or proxies.
The capacity for humans to delude themselves never ceases to amaze.

Dave F says:
December 20, 2010 at 9:32 pm
Obviously, there is a warming trend.
You mention statistical significance. Then you conclude by saying there is obvious warming. But there is no obvious warming since 1998. You haven’t taken the time to think that through. You cannot determine if there is warming or cooling at this point since 1998. That time which starts with an El Nino spike was immediately followed by a La Nina. That La Nina completed. And we are currently in a La Nina. But the La Nina has not completed. It may take a year, or more, to complete. It would only be fair to wait for its cooling effect to take its course before determining what has been happening with temperature since 1998. It seems to be wrong to include the 1999 La Nina but not the current one. The completed cooling from this current La Nina would make you change your conclusion of obvious warming.
What could end up happening is that it may be 17 years of nothing statistically significant happening either way, warming or cooling. But I think I can say now you will not see obvious warming.
Everything is relevant.

David Gould says:
December 20, 2010 at 8:51 pm
According to the UAH ocean data, the oceans this year have been plenty hot. While it has cooled a little in the last two months, the 12-month running average is still the 6th warmest out of the 372 sets of 12-month periods in the record. The 12-month period ending at the end of September was the second warmest such period in the record. So, this year has seen a pretty warm ocean.
Which is to be expected given the strong sustained El Nino that dominated most of the year. It is a very different story now.
Great article Anthony, I enjoyed the “stick it to George section”. He wont be the only one with egg on his face in the coming months.

Allen says:
December 20, 2010 at 10:34 pm
Show me where all this heat has gone to
It’s not in China either. There’s been record cold there too.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/12/17/record-cold-hits-china/

raging fires of orange, red and maroon
The only rage is the rabid froth coming from the world in his mind.