Translation via the GWPF
Speculation Alert: “New Little Ice Age Cannot Be Ruled Out”
Wednesday, 15 December 2010 09:16 Rickmer Flor, wetter.info
It is already clear: the average temperatures in Germany this year (8.1 degrees Celsius) were 0.2 degrees below the long term measured average of 8.3 degrees. “I fear we will end up still significantly lower by the end of the year”, said Globig. The long-term average is actually the average of all German stations from 1961 to 1990.
Coldest December in 100 years
In Berlin, there was an absolute cold record in early December, “For 100 years it had not been as cold as in the first decade of December,” said Globig. This also applied to other regions. But why is it so cold just now? Might it have anything to do with climate change? “I’m very sceptical”, replied Globig. A few years ago when we had a period of mild winters many climate scientists warned that winter sport in Germany’s low mountain ranges would soon no longer be possible anymore because of global warming. “Now they are saying: the cold winters are a consequence of global warming – a questionable implication,” according to Globig.
“Unbelievable amounts of snow” in Berlin (AW note: 800 flights grounded in EU)
Globig appeals to our long-term memory – and recalls a prolonged period of extremely cold and snowy winter in the 1960s and 1970s. Half a meter of snow fell in Berlin in early March 1970, in Potsdam even 70 centimetres. “From today’s perspective, these amounts were unbelievable.”
Then followed a period of milder years, and, probably the impression spread that there will be no more real winters in Germany”, said Globig. “That was a misjudgment.” People became careless, and as a result the authorities run out of grit in a very short time last winter and this year the airport operators lacked de-icing fluid for airplanes. In the Berlin the S-Bahn traffic came to a halt because of the cold and the high-speed trains did not run either. “Our modern, high-tech world was completely overwhelmed with the winter situation” said Globig.
Even the last winter was extremely hard
Many had succumbed to the delusion that the usually mild winters of the past ten years would continue. But already the winter 2009/2010 – with its long periods of frost and snow well into spring – was an eye-opening event for many. “This eye-opening experience could be even bigger this year,” predicts Globig.
Globig sees two main causes for the significant cooling: First, the cyclical changes in the big air currents over the Atlantic, and second, the variations in solar activity.
“Everyone has heard about the high over the Azores and the low over Iceland,” said Globig. The most important question for weather forecasts for many years was: “What are the air pressure differences between the two regions, how stormy will it be – and how much mild air is being shovelled sequentially from the Atlantic to Europe?”
“Both pressure areas do not exist right now,” explains Globig. On the contrary, over the Azores there is lower air pressure and a high over Iceland. “The weather over the Atlantic is upside down,” said Globig. Now cold air from the polar region has lots of space to flow to Europe – and that is what is happening.
“Normal” fluctuations with large currents
“These changes in the so-called ‘Atlantic Oscillation’ are totally normal – just hard to predict in detail,” explains Globig. The storm “Kyrill” in 2007 was the peak of the flow activity from the Atlantic to Europe. “Since then it has grown quiet over the sea,” the meteorologist said. The lows over the Atlantic have become weaker and weaker.
This effect has taken place in previous years, but at irregular intervals. Science does not yet know much about it, says Globig, „but here lies the key to a better understanding of the seasons”.
The low temperatures could very well go on a few years, maybe decades. Even more icy cold could be possible. „It has happened before, and can be explained with natural climate variability,” said Globig. We could even be at the beginning of a Little Ice Age, “the probability is at least given.”
This is also supported by the current development of solar activity. Solar activity has passed the zenith of a nearly 200 years continuing phase of high activity and will decline in coming decades. Around the years 2040/2050, scientists expect a new so-called solar minimum, with very little supply of solar energy into the Earth’s atmosphere.
Spread of the Arctic ice?
“I think it is even conceivable that the Arctic ice spreads significantly in the years to come,” said Globig. The impact of solar activity on climate has been criminally underestimated for a long time.
The last two weeks have been the coldest in England since the second-to-last solar minimum, many hundreds of years ago. “What actually will happen depends on the next five to ten years,” believes Globig. But one thing now appears to be very likely for the weather expert, “We will have to abandon some climate forecasts. “
Wetter T-Online, 14 December 2010 (translation by Philipp Mueller)
morgo says:
December 18, 2010 at 11:49 pm
snowing in australian snowy mountains 19/12/2010 in the summer how is that for climate or is it weather
—————————————————————————–
Actually, it snowed in the Snowy Mountains on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day about 10 years ago. It is unusual, but it does happen now and then.
Brrr, it is 6.9 degrees here in Canberra. Just as well I hadn’t got around to taking the electric blanket off the bed! Normally at this time of the year the daily maxima are high 20s and minima around 18.
Still, I confidently predict that it will be stinking hot here in January. On that we can always rely!
R. Gates says: {December 18, 2010 at 10:22 pm}
“So looking at percentages is usually better for looking at the onset of potential effects. Here’s another example, suppose I buy a stock for $1.00 a share and it goes to $1.40 and I’ve made a 40% profit. That 40% tells me more than simply saying it went up 4o cents a share, because if my Google stock goes up from $350.00 to $350.40, that’s not too impressive.”
Thank you for making my point so nicely. When your $1.00 stock went up 40%, you made 40 cents. The same 40 cents you made on the $350 stock was an increase of .11428%. On the other hand if your $350 stock went up 40% you made $140. So whenever I see person quoting percentages, I look carefully at the actual effect in the real world.
You also said ” Percentages are almost always better for indicating trends and dynamics”.
However they, by themselves, are useless in telling us the real world effects of that trend.
You also said “for certainly if the CO2 level of your blood increased 40% in a short period and was continuing to rise, you could be on the verge of something very scary indeed.”
Apples and oranges, once again to make your argument scarier. The normal range of blood CO2 is 20-29 mEq/L. So if you were at the lower end a 40% increase would simply put you at the upper end. (20 x.40 = 8). EPA tests indicate that exposure to a 17-30 % concentration of CO2 in the air your breathe will have serious consequences. That means CO2 would have to rise to 170,000 ppm to be dangerous. Once again you should work with real world numbers when trying to determine if a change is good, bad or indifferent.
stephan says:
December 18, 2010 at 2:11 pm
same here in Buenos Aires, Yesterday was 18C max (although day before was 33C!) The increased size of the antartica is producing fronts that tend to reach a bit further north. Ie refer to 1 front reaching equator this winter SH.
_____
Neither Antarctica, nor it’s sea ice are increasing in size. There has been a slight increase in the seasonal extent Antarctic sea ice over the past decade or so, but there has also been periods where it has been below the 30 year average during this same period.
It would be good to have some accurate data about the Gulf Stream flow since there have been all those scare stories about it slowing or stopping. Do such sites exist with accessible data?
R. Gates says:
December 18, 2010 at 10:22 pm
“CO2 has not been this high in at least 800,000 years, and geologically speaking”
Isn’t it obvious at this point that all these proxies don’t have the highest resolution? I believe that Shane and Wyner articulated this with the proxy temperature record as well.
Oh, and life evolved long before a mere 800,000 years ago – if CO2 continued its slow and steady march down (which it would’ve without our intervention) then plant life would surely be on its way to starvation. It is lucky for the planet that we came along and started releasing all that trapped CO2.
R Gates says : “…might seem that I am implying that purely by the difference in numbers (1% versus 40%) that the larger percentage must have a greater influence. This is absolutely not my intent…”.
I’m happy to take R Gates at face value, ie. by what is actually said – the scientific approach? (it’s not who says it, it’s what they say). It seems to me that in describing the argument as being between a 40% change in CO2 and 1% change in TSI [0.1%? – peter_ga], R Gates has hit one of the nails on the head. We all know that it’s not just a case of seeing which is the bigger number, but of understanding enough of what actually happens on the real planet as opposed to the IPCC’s pretend computer models. In the case of CO2, the IPCC has come up with some large, unsubstantiated and self-serving “feedbacks” in order to make it look more important, yet with TSI, the IPCC dismisses the possibility of any “feedbacks” with a hand-wave.
[I’m having a little difficulty with a strange keyboard, so checked the above carefully. In checking, I noticed that “it” in “make it look more important” was ambiguous. I was about to correct it, but then decided to leave it as it’s correct either way.]
Weather not climate : We are all enjoying (in a technical sense) the cold weather currently hitting so much of the world. It is expected by those who take note of solar and climate cycles, so to that extent it is relevant, but of itself it is only weather. For example, if a dozen places around the world suddenly hit a record high for a few days next week, does it change anything? And yes, I can confirm from personal experience that it can and does snow in some parts of Australia in summer from time to time.
Antarctica : The key point IMHO is that Antarctica maintained its sea ice while the Arctic failed to, thus raising a big question about AGW. However, it is quite possible that the AGWers will soon be gleefully switching their attention from the Arctic to Antarctica – see “polar flip-flop” in Svensmark’s Cosmoclimatology page (sorry I don’t have the link here).
When it comes to global warming, thinking is so limited to either there is global warming or there isn’t. No one thinks of other factors that contribute. To think that we can deforest the planet and pump massive global amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere and think it has no effect is ludicrous. What you have going on in the UK and much of Europe is a result of global warming and of NATO combating global warming.
First, as global warming melts ice in the arctic north, the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean falls, slowing the Gulf Stream that moderate temperatures in Europe. Second, most of the oil from the BP oil volcano in the Gulf remained underwater, reaching the Atlantic Ocean. This has decreased the flow of the Gulf Stream. Third, NATO countries operate chemtrail planes that spray thick lines of particulates in the atmosphere, reflecting sunlight back into space. They are rarely seen in the summer but you can see tic-tac-toe patterns just hanging in the sky on most days in winter, and it only happens in NATO countries. It’s been going on for over 10 years now, which also explains why global temperatures haven’t risen in the past 10 years. It’s a big, secret band aid in the sky that no ones notices or questions, even though they never saw it happening before the late 90’s!
Anthony and WUWT team:
You may already have this and I have missed it: Coverage of weather/ climate trends in Southern Africa and South America. You already have good networks in Australia and New Zealand, and Antarctica’s few long term sites aren’t hard to manage. What is needed is a way of getting the whole SH picture.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all!
Ken from kenskingdom.wordpress.com
Brian says:
December 19, 2010 at 2:11 pm
“First, as global warming melts ice in the arctic north, the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean falls, slowing the Gulf Stream that moderate temperatures in Europe. Second, most of the oil from the BP oil volcano in the Gulf remained underwater, reaching the Atlantic Ocean. This has decreased the flow of the Gulf Stream. Third, NATO countries operate chemtrail planes that spray thick lines of particulates in the atmosphere, reflecting sunlight back into space. They are rarely seen in the summer but you can see tic-tac-toe patterns just hanging in the sky on most days in winter, and it only happens in NATO countries. It’s been going on for over 10 years now, which also explains why global temperatures haven’t risen in the past 10 years. It’s a big, secret band aid in the sky that no ones notices or questions, even though they never saw it happening before the late 90′s!”
Is this parody or mental illness?
[Please, no electric universe discussions or Thunderbolts links here. Thanks. ~dbs, mod.]
Extremes is what’s happening..Like a lifeless desert.. Extreme heat, extreme cold..The balance is slipping..OUR interference is causing or should I say helping extremes..I feel sorry for us..Like a virus slowly killing our life support known as Earth…like a virus unable to stop itself.
R. Gates says: Dec 18, 2020 10:22pm
CO2 has not been this high in at least 800,000 years, and geologically speaking, it has spiked to its current level virtually instantly (..) if you consider that normally it takes tens of thousands of years for CO2 to move the way it has in a few hundred years.
So it played zilch part in the massive increases in temperature at the end of each of the glacials in 800,000 years, but regardless of this or that CO2 is shown from all observations to lag c800 behind temperature increases, it is suddenly the main culprit blamed for driving warming in this tiny window of time of a couple of hundred years (even though we are actually in the usual slide of temperature downwards from the high warming which unfroze us in the northern hemisphere and caused sea levels to rise c350′ at the beginning of our present interglacial)?
The figure touted by NASA this last year was 600,000 years, but 600kyrs or 800kyrs, how do you explain the end of the 8 or 6 glacials every hundred thousand years when CO2 levels were so much less? How?! If it wasn’t even higher levels of CO2 than we have now, how did such gazumping masses of ice burying the northern hemsiphere in mile high + fridges melt every 100,000 years?
I find this disconnect really disconcerting – surely it can only be sold to people who have no knowledge of the enormity of these crucial to life on earth changes?
This is a fun page – with permission to download and edit, to educate one’s community climate science….
http://www.slideboom.com/presentations/89226/350.org-PowerPoint-Slideshow
If you take a look at page 44, and bear in mind that there is no explanation that this is the Vostok graph showing a consistent c800 year time lag of CO2 behind temperature rises, what is obvious, is that if CO2 has never been so high over the “last 800,000 years”, then the current CO2 is out of step with historical global climate pattern and still can’t explain the end of glacials and the dramatic beginning of interglacials, and it can’t be having any effect now since a great deal less of it was around during these real dramatic events.
Much of which is a lot of unnecessary facts.
What’s important now, burrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, is survival!!
Tom and “LT” in Florida are both mistaken. There has been lots of oil and dispersant (corexit) spotted in southern Florida and the east coast. The oil usually shows up after a period of strong westerly winds (it blows across the Keys). It is dispersed at night by unmarked planes and boats.
The dispersants have turned our normally clean harbors quite ‘milky’ looking… we can’t even see the bottom in 4 feet of water anymore. It’s been this way since mid summer, but you won’t be hearing any of this in the MSM.
Sorry Tom,,, and sorry LT. I wish you were correct, I really do.
– k
Brian says, amongst other things : “most of the oil from the BP oil volcano in the Gulf remained underwater, reaching the Atlantic Ocean. This has decreased the flow of the Gulf Stream“.
According to this report
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/7666764-scientists-discover-evidence-of-significant-damage-from-bp-oil-spill
the oil spill was of 4.9 million barrels (I have also seen it reported as nearly 20 million barrels), to which you can add 2 million barrels of dispersant.
Let’s call it 20 million barrels in total – but note also that much of this is reported as lying on the bottom of the sea, not flowing out of the Gulf.
The Gulf Stream is reported as being “at least 55 Sv”
http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/St-Ts/Sverdrup-Harald.html
where “Sv” is Sverdrups. 1 Sverdrup = 1 million cubic metres per second.
20 million barrels in, say, 3 months, is equivalent to about 0.0000012 Sv, or about 0.0000022% of the Gulf Stream. (Please check my arithmetic).
I find it hard to believe that it is affecting the flow rate of the Gulf Stream.
I find everything else you said equally hard to believe. If you want to be taken seriously, I suggest you put up some solid substantiation of your claims.
Footnote : The BP oil spill was a major disaster, in which 11 people were killed and many people’s lives and livelihoods were affected. I most certainly do not want to give any impression that the spill was anything but truly awful.
Ice age smice age. Global warming wobbly swarming. Look, homo sapiens has really [/snip] up all of the planet life support systems due to greed, hubris, ignorance, and blatant stupidity. A supposedly ‘intelligent’ species that invents its own means of complete self-immolation defies imagination.
[That word is strong vulgarity even with a couple of ** in place…. bl57~mod]
I am a builder trying to construct our family home in a tiny village located dead centre of the uk and 1450 ft above sea level. I have worked out side almost continuously for the last 3 years, and as we are unaffected here by city air pollution, have felt the un-blunted force of the weather. We’ve had heat stroke in the spring (when the sun seems most fierce) with 30c, hail in the summer, monsoon rain in the autumn and snow (up to 4ft on the level not drifts) /sub zero temperatures (now regularly in the -teens) lasting months. All the while we are on site in a caravan.So you can understand why I’ve developed and interest in our weather.
I’ve always struggled with the notion of a co2 driven climate, mainly because it seems too handy for crooked governments to hit you around the head with while empting your pockets!
But I can understand past treads of a Planet with-in a huge cosmic clock where many variations in its surface character are expected.
I’m not however getting why one seemingly obvious factor in the Earth’s climate character is not being discussed, Water.
If this Planet is to become warmer, which it indeed seems to be trying to do (in my view as a result of its relationship with the sun) more water vapour will be force into the atmosphere where it will dissipate to the the poles where it will have a cooling effect.
I would regard the water on this Planet as a shield which has historically saved the Earth from the fierceness of the sun during the procession of the galaxy. This simple view of our universe is not easy to tax, so I’ll expect this post (my first ever!) to be rubbished.
Anyway it would seem that all agree change is a foot.
And I would not feel compelled to write this unless I was deeply worried that the ‘the powers that be’ may be missing (or worse denying) “unfortunate truth” here.
In Norse lore, Odin’s only clue to Ragnarök, is the fimbulvinter. Ragnarök is known as the “destiny of the gods.” Anyone who has researched ancient texts may come to the belief that time is cyclical. This would only be an end of an age in this physical realm. This fimbulvinter is also known as “The Great Winter.” This is 3 successive winters back-to-back with no summer. Is this the beginning of the fimbulvinter? Fast from this world to protect thyself.
Man-made global warming is a hoax to further a carbon tax agenda. All of the planets of the solar system are heating up considerably. This is a cyclical event that happens every Platonic year, if not sooner. As well I understand the lie of the 20th century. There are/were far more sustainable forms of energy than what we are/were using. Those who rule’s mantra is out of chaos comes order. Why else would a book, “Petrol, Petrol” be written in German by an occultist in 1903 that depicts the Gulf Oil Spill exactly as it was to happen. The same can be said about Ayn Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged.” This is their playbook. It was written in the late 50’s and it reads like today’s headlines.
Could someone near East Anglia, *please* wade through the drifts over to the university there, and take some photos of the Hadley CRU tower covered in snow? You can’t miss it, it’s an ivory coloured tower. Then post them on the net.
At some point as the snow gets deeper and deeper, those pictures will seem extremely funny. But hurry, the opportunity for mirth may be fairly brief, if this turns out to be the start of a new glaciation era. Mini or otherwise.
I wonder at what depth of snow, will people start calling for AGW/carbon credit trade scammers to be arrested?
At what snow depth (or degree of agricultural failure due to ice) will we see Warmists actually dragged from their conferences by hungry shivering mobs intent on some impromptu street bonfires? After all, the name Warmists could sound very suggestive to cold people.
Btw, I’m another who thinks that releasing all that long-sequestered carbon into the atmosphere, is probably a very good thing for the biosphere. CO2 increase clearly doesn’t force global temperature, but does greatly increase plant growth vigor. How much extra CO2 will it take to grow forests across the world’s equatorial deserts? Bonus if the world is cooler and wetter.
Thomas Globig is skeptical that what is occurring this winter has little to do with Climate Change because he points to the weather of the past.
Yet he fails to grasp or even make reference to the fact that in 1950 there were 2.5 billion people on the planet while today, a mere 60 years later, we are racing to an all time record of 7 billion people.
Population has almost tripled in 60 years based on burning fossil fuels and there is not the remotest possibility it impacts the weather?
What is obvious is that it is too late.
The world can’t be saved … by politicians.
The window of opportunity for politicians to do something, anything, that would allow them to take credit for the cooler temperatures is now long past. Nature has done it without them.
M Carr : “… This simple view of our universe is not easy to tax, so I’ll expect this post (my first ever!) to be rubbished. …”
Welcome to WUWT. In thinking that the sun and water are more important to climate than CO2, you will find yourself in good company here I’m sure, but, yes, there may be some who disagree with the precise mechanism you describe. The science may be a bit complex in places, and it would be nice if the politics were simply as you describe it (about your money). Unfortunately, you may have misunderstood the politics. I recommend you read what Vaclav Klaus, President of the Czech Republic, has to say about it. If anyone should recognise totalitarianism, he should.
Just search the web for “Vaclav Klaus”, or buy his book Blue Planet in Green Shackles.
I know after stumbling across and reading most posts on this website that my comments will largely fall on deaf ears but a few may see my points so here goes anyway ……
The clue is in the word “global” – in that crowing about a particular local neck of the woods as being colder this or colder that entirely misses the point ( as does crowing about warmer conditions at the opposite end of the argument BTW ).
Here a map of ( global ) temperature anomalies for Jan 2010 …
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201001.gif
( feel free to look at other months )
Assuming you consider the source reputable ( and if it is not then I live in a world I do not recognise ) this illustrates the fact that when we add in the whole globe such overall warmth appears … note the unusual warmth in Canada, the Arctic and most Oceans.
It is “local weather” outside the window not “Global climate”.
Having said the above, however, I do believe that ( and it should be obvious that there are ) other cycles bearing upon climate, ie the ENSO and Solar cycles. The Solar cycle being most interesting to me. It has been long known that Low solar minima give rise to notably colder northern European winters – this , I believe, is a consequence of an influence on the Stratosphere. A warmer than normal Stratosphere ( or at least a disruption of the main stratospheric vortex from its normal position/shape seems causative. ( I understand from contacts that the UKMO seasonal model – rightly slated a year ago for not predicting last years cold winter – has now been given much greater resolution at stratospheric levels, and in a rerun of conditions now predicts winter 2009/10 as cold ). Whether this is caused by up-welling waves from the troposphere due to AGW or ENSO influences or affects from space ( cosmic rays ) or both is unknown.
Maybe instead of selling carbon credits they should market temperature credits. When it gets too cold in Germany maybe Brazil can sell them a few degrees of heat . If these were sold as fancy lithographs they would make great wall hangers and also could be traded like baseball cards.
Bill