How Germany's weather team views the "hottest year ever"

Translation via the GWPF

Speculation Alert: “New Little Ice Age Cannot Be Ruled Out”

Wednesday, 15 December 2010 09:16 Rickmer Flor, wetter.info

deviations from the climate mean for December, until 17.12.2010, Source: Bernd-Hussing.de -click

Everybody is talking about global warming – but in Germany and also in many other countries around the world people are currently fighting with the adversities of extreme cold. And indeed: “The year 2010 will be the coldest for ten years in Germany,” said Thomas Globig from the weather service Meteo Media talking to wetter.info . And it might even get worse: “It is quite possible that we are at the beginning of a Little Ice Age,” the meteorologist said. Even the Arctic ice could spread further to the south.

 

It is already clear: the average temperatures in Germany this year (8.1 degrees Celsius) were 0.2 degrees below the long term measured average of 8.3 degrees. “I fear we will end up still significantly lower by the end of the year”, said Globig. The long-term average is actually the average of all German stations from 1961 to 1990.

Coldest December in 100 years

In Berlin, there was an absolute cold record in early December, “For 100 years it had not been as cold as in the first decade of December,” said Globig. This also applied to other regions. But why is it so cold just now? Might it have anything to do with climate change? “I’m very sceptical”, replied Globig. A few years ago when we had a period of mild winters many climate scientists warned that winter sport in Germany’s low mountain ranges would soon no longer be possible anymore because of  global warming. “Now they are saying: the cold winters are a consequence of global warming – a questionable implication,” according to Globig.

“Unbelievable amounts of snow” in Berlin (AW note: 800 flights grounded in EU)

Globig appeals to our long-term memory – and recalls a prolonged period of extremely cold and snowy winter in the 1960s and 1970s. Half a meter of snow fell in Berlin in early March 1970, in Potsdam even 70 centimetres. “From today’s perspective, these amounts were unbelievable.”

Then followed a period of milder years, and, probably the impression spread that there will be no more real winters in Germany”, said Globig. “That was a misjudgment.” People became careless, and as a result the authorities run out of grit in a very short time last winter and this year the airport operators lacked de-icing fluid for airplanes. In the Berlin the S-Bahn traffic came to a halt because of the cold and the high-speed trains did not run either. “Our modern, high-tech world was completely overwhelmed with the winter situation” said Globig.

Even the last winter was extremely hard

Many had succumbed to the delusion that the usually mild winters of the past ten years would continue. But already the winter 2009/2010 – with its long periods of frost and snow well into spring – was an eye-opening event for many. “This eye-opening experience could be even bigger this year,” predicts Globig.

Globig sees two main causes for the significant cooling: First, the cyclical changes in the big air currents over the Atlantic, and second, the variations in solar activity.

“Everyone has heard about the high over the Azores and the low over Iceland,” said Globig. The most important question for weather forecasts for many years was: “What are the air pressure differences between the two regions, how stormy will it be – and how much mild air is being shovelled sequentially from the Atlantic to Europe?”

“Both pressure areas do not exist right now,” explains Globig. On the contrary, over the Azores there is lower air pressure and a high over Iceland. “The weather over the Atlantic is upside down,” said Globig. Now cold air from the polar region has lots of space to flow to Europe – and that is what is happening.

“Normal” fluctuations with large currents

“These changes in the so-called ‘Atlantic Oscillation’ are totally normal – just hard to predict in detail,” explains Globig. The storm “Kyrill” in 2007 was the peak of the flow activity from the Atlantic to Europe. “Since then it has grown quiet over the sea,” the meteorologist said. The lows over the Atlantic have become weaker and weaker.

This effect has taken place in previous years, but at irregular intervals. Science does not yet know much about it, says Globig, „but here lies the key to a better understanding of the seasons”.

The low temperatures could very well go on a few years, maybe decades. Even more icy cold could be possible. „It has happened before, and can be explained with natural climate variability,” said Globig. We could even be at the beginning of a Little Ice Age, “the probability is at least given.”

This is also supported by the current development of solar activity. Solar activity has passed the zenith of a nearly 200 years continuing phase of high activity and will decline in coming decades. Around the years 2040/2050, scientists expect a new so-called solar minimum, with very little supply of solar energy into the Earth’s atmosphere.

Spread of the Arctic ice?

“I think it is even conceivable that the Arctic ice spreads significantly in the years to come,” said Globig. The impact of solar activity on climate has been criminally underestimated for a long time.

The last two weeks have been the coldest in England since the second-to-last solar minimum, many hundreds of years ago. “What actually will happen depends on the next five to ten years,” believes Globig. But one thing now appears to be very likely for the weather expert, “We will have to abandon some climate forecasts. “

Wetter T-Online, 14 December 2010 (translation by Philipp Mueller)

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DirkH

Woot! Go meteomedia go!
Here’s the link to their very good network of automated stations in Germany:
http://wetterstationen.meteomedia.de/messnetz/eu_d.html
You can click on any one and choose the free 4 day prognosis on the right and you get something like this:
http://wetterstationen.meteomedia.de/messnetz/forecast/103480.html
Love them!

Gary Pearse

Unfortunately the communications between such as this meteorologist and the dangerous people of like mind who populate the CAGW annual UN climate meetings are non-existent. Watch now for a German meteorologist or climate scientist to neutralize Globig’s views. Germany is loaded with these cats.

I think it is interesting to note what is happening in Iqualuit, Nunavut, Canada; near the Arctic circle. For yesterday, the average high temperature was -18 C. The actual high temperature was +3 C; 21 Celsius degrees above normal. If this had occurred today here in Ottawa, Canada, we would have had the equivalent of a nice cool summer day, instead of temparatures hovering around 0 C.

JasonS

“Solar activity has passed the zenith of a nearly 200 years continuing phase of high activity ”
Interesting.

RHG

Even mainstream TV weather forecasters are being interviewed with increasing frequency and are beginning to talk about natural climate variability. A year or two back it was ‘Folgen des Klimawandels’ and ‘Klimaerwärmung’. Now the tone is more questioning with the certainties of the past now longer paraded with the same ‘settled science’ triumphalism. Latif’s ( IFM-GEOMAR Kiel) comments about no discernable warming since the 90’s because of natural variability masking AGW (which he said surprised him) broke, so to speak, the ice here in the main stream media.
All in all, a lot of hedging going on.

John F. Hultquist

Around the years 2040/2050, scientists expect a new so-called solar minimum, with very little supply of solar energy into the Earth’s atmosphere.
Oh, please. Not the dreaded “very little supply” forecast.
What the H*** does that mean?

bubbagyro

It must then be an order of magnitude worse than this article says, with the UHI and warm-earther “adjustments” to the record. Maybe a Maunder minimum is at hand?

Curiousgeorge

Gee, reckon there’s a cycle (or several ) in the room? 😉

FrankK

When we were in southern Germany in June, July this year there was a heat wave
> 35 C , so Mr Hansen you better get to quoting those figures MATE!

latitude

“And it might even get worse: “It is quite possible that we are at the beginning of a Little Ice Age,”
======================================================
yeah yeah yeah
It was “quite possible” that we would never see snow again, just a year or so
If this isn’t proof that these quacks don’t know their rears from a whole in the ground, nothing is………………………..

Leone

Yes, that is absolutely true. If solar activity will not start to pick up, LIA 2 is here within few years.

There has been a snowstorm in Río Gallegos, Santa Cruz province in Patagonia, two days ago with only a week away from the official entrance into SH summer.
In Februrary 14th, 2007 was also a great snowfall in Bariloche, a ski resort in Patagonia, allowing tourists to put on their skis and have some fun in the slopes. The day before tourists had been swimming in Lake Nahel Huapi at the bottom of the slopes.
Cold polar fronts are constantly bringing cold air to Argentina, a country presently going through a severe drought induced by the well settled La Niña in the Pacific. These conditions will last until mid March.

Casper

Hi Anthony,
please visit wetter24.de http://tinyurl.com/2bhpabr to see a map of the temperature deviations for December in Germany. The temperatures differ up to 5°C below the average values. It is a harsh winter indeed.
REPLY: Thanks Caspar, I’ve replaced the current weather image with the one you have suggested, since it was more relevant to the story. Thank you sincerely. – Anthony

MattE

“The impact of solar activity on climate has been criminally underestimated for a long time.” Doesn’t sound like consensus- building in Germany.

Colin from Mission B.C.

“I think it is even conceivable that the Arctic ice spreads significantly in the years to come,” said Globig
============
This event would signify extreme cooling, at least in the Northern Hemisphere. Many deaths would results in Europe and North America as a result, which would be tragic. However, I fear seeing Arctic ice increase will be the only way to empirically, once and for all, with decisiveness, kill CAGW theory.
No doubt there will still be a handful of True Believers who cling to the CAGW religion. But, with a doomed-arctic-ice meme dead, the Warmers won’t have much to hang their hat on, from either a science standpoint, or a propaganda standpoint.

Colin from Mission B.C.

I cited “AGW theory” in my post above. I have given AGW more than its deserved due. I meant to type “AGW conjecture.”

Mike.

Is this not exactly what Dr Zangari proposed back in June 2010, when he considered that the tentative gulf stream would be stopped by the spilled oil from Florida’s gulf coast. His estimate was 10 degree lower temperatures than the norm.
http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2010/08/14/dr-zangari-the-gulf-stream-and-gulf-loop-current-is-broken-and-collapsing-global-climate-affected-29-july-2010/
Even though his paper is just speculation, maybe there is something in what he has said, at least in regard to the current when it should becomes the North Atlantic drift.

danj

It will be interesting to see how the “smoothing” of the European temperatures “hides the decline”…

1DandyTroll

Well, at least the French would be hilariously happy if Germany froze over for a while, or two, so they could get the EU subsides for the german farmers as well, which is surly need by the french farmers since they only get like 50% of the total EU budget now.
But OMG, will the beer in Munich in October freeze then?

Archonix

John F. Hultquist says:
December 18, 2010 at 10:46 am
Oh, please. Not the dreaded “very little supply” forecast.
What the H*** does that mean?

It means it’s worse than we thought! Billions will DIE!!!

Huth

Don’t panic! No, no! I mean Don’t Stop Panicking!
No …
Er …
What do I mean?

Archonix

Mike. says:
December 18, 2010 at 11:18 am
Unless I’m very much mistake there was not nearly enough oil released to do anything of the sort. The entire oil-induced gulf stream collapse idea was based on models (there’s that word again) that vastly overstated the amount of released oil and then assumed the worst possible effects. No, once again this is simply natural variability, over which man has not had a jot of control.

That’s an interesting article. I don’t want to over-interpret the results for a single country, but it’s necessary to keep all of the individual cases in mind when talking about overall trends. One thing that was gotten wrong, though, was an apparent confusion of the terminology with the regular solar cycle of maximum & minimum with the rarer and longer-term Maunder and Dalton Minima. For instance, “…since the second-to-last solar minimum, many hundreds of years ago.” But maybe that’s an issue with the translation.

DirkH

Mike. says:
December 18, 2010 at 11:18 am
“Is this not exactly what Dr Zangari proposed back in June 2010, when he considered that the tentative gulf stream would be stopped by the […]”
Even though snow came 3 weeks earlier than last year, last winter was also extremely cold here in Germany – so my question would be how the Macondo spill in April 2010 managed to give us a cold winter in 2009/2010.

lgl

“We could even be at the beginning of a Little Ice Age, “the probability is at least given.”
Not very likely
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?journal=A%2bG..&year=2003&volume=..44&letter=e&db_key=GEN&page_ind=162&plate_select=NO&data_type=GIF&type=SCREEN_GIF&classic=YES

R. Gates

I find the quote from the article most revealing of the general understanding of the author:
“Around the years 2040/2050, scientists expect a new so-called solar minimum, with very little supply of solar energy into the Earth’s atmosphere.”
Wow, the sun’s supply of solar energy is going to slow to almost a trickle during a “new so-called solar minimum” in the years 2040/2050? Is this the height of ignorant writing or what? I will kind a guess the author simply wasn’t aware of the less than 1% variance in TSI between solar max and minimum means that during a solar minimum the earth is still receiving 99% of the “supply of solar energy” (and thank god it does, or we’d be back to the ice house earth of 700 million years ago.
I actually expect to see more and more of this kind of inaccurate and rather sensationalist reporting going on over the next few years as populated areas of the N. Hemisphere continue to suffer from very cold outbreaks during the next several winters. This is no different than some of the ignorant reporting that has gone on with the “warmist” side of the camp. What we are not seeing is a general cooling of the N. Hemisphere at all, nor are we seeing growth in year-to-year Arctic sea ice as this article ignorantly seems to hint at, and we certainly aren’t in danger of seeing the earth having “very little supply of solar energy into the earth’s atmosphere.” DMI temps for the arctic are actually above normal right now, as might be expected with the higher than normal pressure over the arctic regions that is forcing all the cold air south. You can conduct your own experiment to see exactly what is happening. Simply stand by your closed freezer door and record the temperature every 10 seconds for 10 minutes (it should be fairly constant), and then quickly open your freezer door and record the immediate temperature inside the freezer and then in the same relative location where you were previously recording it outside the freezer door, except now the door is open and the cold air is pouring across your thermometer. Guess what? The temps on your thermometer should be falling. Record those temps every 10 seconds for 10 minutes and then at the very end, before you close your freezer door, take the temperature once more inside the freezer. It will either be the same or more likely slightly higher as there was only a certain volume of cold air in the freezer and it has now mostly be evacuated. This is similar to what is going on with the Arctic and some regions of the N. Hemisphere right now. The freezer door is open. The only difference is that the Arctic is constantly recharging its supply of cold air (at least during the dark winter months) and your freezer can’t do that in the same manner.
What has happened in the past 2 winters to open the freezer door is that we’ve seen a shift in atmospheric pressure that has spanned both the last El Nino and La Nino cycles of ENSO…i.e. you can’t blame the current La Nina for the negative AO of last winter. This pressure shift has made the outbreak of cold air to regions further south more likely and also has coincided (or been reflected in?) a period of more frequent Arctic Dipole Anomalies. Some scientists are blaming lower sea ice for this, but I have a feeling it is more complicated than that (but still likley related to AGW), but the net result is that the cold air that normally stays north isn’t being trapped up there.

kramer

“I fear we will end up still significantly lower by the end of the year”
Have no fear, Hansen is here–> http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/jhansen.html

Ulric Lyons

“Around the years 2040/2050, scientists expect a new so-called solar minimum, with very little supply of solar energy into the Earth’s atmosphere.”
Probably not as cold as 2014 to 2020 will be.

dbleader61

Without being overly dramatic, there is a pernicious side to the alarmist mantra about warming, in the sense that it is leading to people being a less prepared for the cold that still occurs – whether you believe in AGW or not. As the story indicates, the Berlin airport “lacked deicing fluid” and that people become careless or complacent about cold weather they think is a thing of the past.
It was not a thing of the past for several hundred drivers in Ontario this past week.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/windsor/story/2010/12/13/wdr-sarnia-police-snow.html

Manfred

what is the efficiency of all these solar cells buried under snow and ice ?

Casper

Hi Anthony,
I’ve already seen the NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent on your page. The ice sheet coming from Greenland is almost touching the Iceland! Incredible!

Tom in Florida

Mike. says: {December 18, 2010 at 11:18 am}
“Is this not exactly what Dr Zangari proposed back in June 2010, when he considered that the tentative gulf stream would be stopped by the spilled oil from Florida’s gulf coast.”
Stop spreading this garbage. The oil was NOT “spilled from Florida’s gulf coast”. The oil spill was south of New Orleans, some oil made its way to the panhandle area of Florida which is in the north part of the Gulf of Mexico. Please look at a map. No oil, none, nada, zilch went anywhere near the rest of Florida’s coastline. No oil made its way around the southern tip of Florida and into the Gulf Stream. No oil appeared anywhere on the east coast of Florida or in the Bahamas. None, nada, zilch! Finito!

Malcolm Miller

Here in Australia there is December snow, and the longest and coldest winter for a long time where I live. We are supposed to be having summer now.

Mike Jowsey

The wheels of the CAGW cart are getting wobblier and wobblier

mitchel44

You might keep in mind that it is a machine translation and the fine nuance of the statements may be distorted.
I do think the fact that 4 out of the last 5 solar maximums being in the top 10 of solar cycles is seriously underestimated.
I also find it odd that folks are convinced that a “less than 1% variance in TSI between solar max and minimum” of the most powerful thing in the solar system has no effect on the earths climate, yet a change of .0001 in the composition of the atmosphere over 150 years has a major impact.

Chris Smith

This cold spell is all part of the Global Warming due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. What is wrong with the Deniers? Can they not see this obvious fact?
Please consider freezing to death this Christmas to save the planet.

el gordo

‘The impact of solar activity on climate has been criminally underestimated for a long time.’
Fighting words which support the proposition that CO2 has low climate sensitivity.

DavidS

As records are set all over Europe, this is my favourite. In 1976 the UK got its first stand alone covered shopping mall in Brent Cross, north London. Today, for the first time in its 34 year history, it had to close due to the snow.

R. Gates

Casper says:
December 18, 2010 at 12:38 pm
Hi Anthony,
I’ve already seen the NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent on your page. The ice sheet coming from Greenland is almost touching the Iceland! Incredible!
Incredible, and…running below normal in extent for this time of year:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.5.html
Meanwhile, we’ve got incredible high pressure dominating the Arctic as the AO index is of course quite negative. Lower than normal (and has been since 2004) Arctic Sea Ice, higher than normal atmospheric pressure over the Arctic, colder than normal winter in Europe…could they all be related? Likely.

lgl

R. Gates
“Some scientists are blaming lower sea ice for this, but I have a feeling it is more complicated than that (but still likley related to AGW)”
Oh not you too. Barents sea ice is determined by the NAO. http://virakkraft.com/NAO-Barents.gif

R. Gates

mitchel44 says:
December 18, 2010 at 1:26 pm
You might keep in mind that it is a machine translation and the fine nuance of the statements may be distorted.
I do think the fact that 4 out of the last 5 solar maximums being in the top 10 of solar cycles is seriously underestimated.
I also find it odd that folks are convinced that a “less than 1% variance in TSI between solar max and minimum” of the most powerful thing in the solar system has no effect on the earths climate, yet a change of .0001 in the composition of the atmosphere over 150 years has a major impact.
______
I’ve no doubt that the sun influences the climate– how could it not? Just as I’ve no doubt that the composition of the earth’s atmosphere also is a great influencer of climate. The issue is whether a 1% variance in TSI (at the most) from solar max to minimum along with secondary effects that may be produced by the variances in galactic cosmic rays is all of a greater influence than a 40% rise in CO2 over a few centuries. For many the issue is settled, for others, the jury is still out…and hence, why WUWT can be so much fun!

keith at hastings uk

R. Gates says:
December 18, 2010 at 11:44 am
———————
Since the Arctic is warmer, it presumably is radiating more heat away. This looks like a negative feedback, but I have no handle on the quantum. But prima facie it could be that the warmth of the last few years is being dumped. Whether this compensates or overmasters the additional heat absorbed due ice loss, I don’t know.
But do the models properly allow for such matters, I wonder.
Separately, what looks true is that the political equation is changing, with more and more voters regarding AGW as a busted flush. Politicians will follow, eventually, see USA.

stephan

same here in Buenos Aires, Yesterday was 18C max (although day before was 33C!) The increased size of the antartica is producing fronts that tend to reach a bit further north. Ie refer to 1 front reaching equator this winter SH

RHG

Meanwhile 800 kilometres due south of Germany, the BBC tells us:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12022394

DirkH

R. Gates misses a major point. And that is the fact that meteorologists in Germany are no more afraid of spelling out the fact that it’s not getting warmer anytime soon. It does matter little whether this particular meteorologist is right about a coming ice age. What matters is that the complete absence of discussion in Germany is crumbling now. Yes, there was for years not the slightest doubt about AGW in all of the German media. The US was generally characterized as lunatics for not joining Kyoto – how could they, jeopardizing the entire planet.
This warmist stranglehold went through all media, state controlled as well as private, and through all parties, culminating in the role of “Climate Chancellor” Merkel, resulting in vast amounts of money down the sink hole of wind and PV subsidies.
Climategate was never reported by our media; well, maybe in a by-sentence. Even during the last harsh winter no doubt in the cult of AGW mitigation surfaced. A whole lotta BBC’s if you will.
And that is all falling apart now.

LT in Florida

Yes Tom, you are right. We are still seeing this misstatement of fact when it comes to the Macondo Oil well spill of this past Spring and Summer. For some reason, far too many people still associate this tragedy with Florida when in fact it happened just off the coast of Louisiana.
And you are also correct in stating that only the far western-most beaches of the Florida panhandle saw any washed up crude oil at all, the rest of the state was and still is completely oil-free.
Additionally, the hypothesis which some have put forth and which suggests that the crude oil may have disrupted the Gulf Stream current is also highly far-fetched. In fact, both the undersea spilled oil and the Corexit® dispersant that was used by BP to break down the crude oil got nowhere near the Loop Current in the Gulf. Early satellite images, in early May of 2010 showed some evidence that a small part of the surface oil slick may have drifted far enough south to have interacted with the current but there is a big difference between a slick on the surface and undersea plumes of oil and chemical dispersant. The two phenomena act entirely different in conjunction with sea currents and other factors in nature. And the hypothesis relating to disruption of the sea currents is related to undersea oil and dispersant, not any residual oil on the surface.
Regardless of all of this, none of the crude oil or dispersant ever showed up anywhere outside of the Central Gulf Coast within about 250 kilometers of the spill in spite of early predictions to the contrary.

BBC News just reported the coldest day in Northern Ireland since records began.

Around the years 2040/2050, scientists expect a new so-called solar minimum, with very little supply of solar energy into the Earth’s atmosphere.
R Gates : “ Is this the height of ignorant writing or what?
Not often do I agree with R Gates, but it does happen from time to time. I think I would have put it more mildly, though, and satisfied myself with simply quoting the IPCC on solar irradiation variance.
R Gates again – and me agreeing again : “The issue is whether a 1% variance in TSI […] a greater influence than a 40% rise in CO2 […] WUWT can be so much fun!“. I would just add that secondary effects might not be limited to galactic cosmic rays only – we just don’t know.

geo

Clearly such disastrous cooling will require a massive transer of wealth from rich countries to poor countries to mitigate its effects.
In other words, not to worry folks –doesn’t matter how the problem changes, the solution will always turn out to be the same. . .

PhilinCalifornia

R. Gates says:
December 18, 2010 at 11:44 am
Wow, the sun’s supply of solar energy is going to slow to almost a trickle during a “new so-called solar minimum” in the years 2040/2050? Is this the height of ignorant writing or what? I will kind a guess the author simply wasn’t aware of the less than 1% variance in TSI between solar max and minimum means that during a solar minimum the earth is still receiving 99% of the “supply of solar energy” (and thank god it does, or we’d be back to the ice house earth of 700 million years ago.
————————————————
Not too dissimilar to your own post where you quote the 40% increase number, but not the fact that it’s logarithmic.